Founder & Managing Partner, Thoma Bravo
Orlando Bravo live at SuperReturn 2026 | Interview with Bloomberg
Orlando Bravo joins Bloomberg's Dani Burger live from SuperReturn 2026 to discuss AI and the future of software investing.
About Orlando Bravo
Orlando Bravo, founder and managing partner of Thoma Bravo, has been active in multiple media appearances in 2025 and 2026, discussing the state of software investing and the impact of artificial intelligence. At the SuperReturn 2026 conference, Bravo stated that the so-called "SaaSpocalypse" is "finished" and "no more," calling the term "terrible." He argued that software-as-a-service companies are not static and that AI represents a major tailwind for the industry. Bravo also noted that lending for software is "very difficult" due to large asset managers needing to raise money from retail, but said that as a value investor, Thoma Bravo performs better in down markets. He added that large, historic IPOs like SpaceX and OpenAI are absorbing market attention, making it harder for smaller companies to go public in the short term. In other appearances, Bravo emphasized the importance of domain expertise and leadership in distinguishing software companies that will thrive in the AI era. He cited portfolio company Jeppesen, which provides aviation software, as an example of a deep-domain business. Bravo said Thoma Bravo has completed about $3 billion in add-on acquisitions of AI companies and that roughly 50% of new revenue across its portfolio comes from AI-related products. He also expressed optimism about AI's potential, but urged policymakers to regulate it responsibly to avoid job destruction. At Miami Dade College's 2026 commencement, Bravo delivered a speech encouraging graduates to "go for it," drawing on his own career path from Puerto Rico to Stanford and private equity.
Transcript (27 segments)
✨ AI-enhanced transcript with speaker attribution
D
Danny0:00
There's one issue I want to focus in on particular, and it is the state of software and private equity. And we have the leading voice to talk about that. It is Orlando Bravo, the co-founder of Thoma Bravo. Orlando, always a pleasure to see you here.
O
Orlando Bravo0:11
Danny, so good to see you. This is our yearly tradition.
D
Danny0:14
Our yearly. I would be gutted if we didn't meet same place, same time every single year.
O
Orlando Bravo0:18
Reasons I come here to do this.
D
Danny0:19
Okay, hopefully among the top. And I know this year you have a particular message. I remember earlier this year you were talking at Saon saying, 'The SaaS apocalypse, the worst is over.' Does it go further than just the worst being over, but is this thing over, Orlando? Where are we in the world of the SaaS apocalypse?
O
Orlando Bravo0:34
Danny, SaaS apocalypse, for whatever term, and that's a terrible term, by the way. I really don't like that term. It is finished. No more. And it's pretty simple, you know, people are realizing that these are unbelievable companies, and you look at the numbers coming out even after the first quarter. And secondly, and more importantly, people are realizing that SaaS companies just don't stay still. They're not static. They evolve with infrastructure. They evolve with opportunity. And SaaS and Agentech are going to merge very, very, very quickly. And these companies are the future of agents in the enterprise, and the market is realizing that as well.
D
Danny1:16
So, the freak out is over, essentially. Is that what you're seeing in private markets? Is this stuff starting to be realized? Your portfolio, maybe some of your peers at the valuations that you think they should have. Or is there still some frozen assets, some stickiness that has yet to come out of the market?
O
Orlando Bravo1:30
In private equity, the environment is pretty stuck right now. Now, I do think that private equity is the voice of reason in a lot of this, because it makes sense that deal activity is a lot slower. Because if you're going to buy a technology company or a software company, a solution provider to the enterprise, now you really want to see that they're making a lot of progress around their AI offerings. Enough time has passed that you should see that in the business because that's where the whole world is going to evolve to. So, why not wait a little longer before you pull the trigger and have a little bit more clarity. That makes sense to me.
D
Danny2:08
Sound like the worst is over, Orlando. It seems like there's still things that need to be tested and figured out. So, what is the aspect? Is it just are you saying our companies are healthy or is there something else that the worst of the freakout is truly over?
O
Orlando Bravo2:19
Well, the freakout really happened in the public markets.
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Danny2:22
True.
O
Orlando Bravo2:22
Right? And you've seen since April software stocks have rebounded really, really strongly. But, the other thing that you notice, and this is really about public investor sentiment, is that whenever there's an announcement about one of the great LLMs coming out with an amazing model like today, the whole software industry doesn't collapse or react to it. A big place where you saw the freakout, as you called it, be completely over is where we invest 50% of our dollars in cyber.
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Danny2:50
Mhm.
O
Orlando Bravo2:50
This is a huge tailwind to cyber, and that's one of the sectors that has rebounded really strongly over the past month.
D
Danny2:57
What about in lending? What are conversations with your lenders like? Are they... I remember we had a conversation saying the cost of capital has gone a little bit higher because of concerns. Has that come back down or are there still difficult conversations to be had?
O
Orlando Bravo3:09
Lending is very difficult because, and I'm going to be completely upfront about this, there are many large asset managers that need to raise so much money monthly and from retail. And it's not the most popular thing right now to pile that money into software. So, it is a much tighter environment. Now, on the buy side, of course, that helps you with financing, but it means you pay a lot less. And funds like ours, we do a lot better in down markets than in up markets because we're value investors. So, we're really enjoying this opportunity, but once again, we're treading carefully because we want to buy companies that are part of the future, not companies that are stuck in the past.
D
Danny3:52
By the way, Thoma Bravo, more than most companies, has been very successful with exits. You've also had some really successful IPOs, too. We're going to get SpaceX this week. We learned that OpenAI is going to be coming to market, and Anthropic also filed for an IPO. Is this good or bad for the IPO environment and prospective exits? Because, for one thing, it starts the capital flowing, but there's also this question, is it all just being funneled? Are these just black holes of capital if you're competing for the same institutional money?
O
Orlando Bravo4:20
Exactly. Both points are so true. I was talking to my partner, Seth Boro, about this. He's in charge of a lot of companies along with Holden Spaight that look like they're great IPO candidates in the 25 billion, 30 billion dollar valuation range, based on about a billion dollars of free cash flow and their growth rates. And both of them told me last year, 'We won't be able to do anything this year because all the attention and all the time, let alone the dollars, are going to be focused on these massive, historic IPOs.' So, the smaller caps, which we are now, I guess, are much more difficult to get the attention in the short term. Now, medium term, I really hope they do well because they're really important moments for capital markets and their depth. And if they do well, you'll get more confidence in the IPO market.
D
Danny5:09
What is a typical period for that? I know SpaceX doesn't really have a historical corollary because it's just so large in size, but what would be your estimation of when you can enter back into the IPO market after these come in?
O
Orlando Bravo5:20
Hopefully 9 months to a year after. Now, that's a guess, right? So many things are up in the air. What happens with interest rates? What happens with valuations? Is there a slowdown in the infrastructure build? There's so many questions, right? It's a wild investing environment. People are saying a lot of strange things in investing right now, and the toughest thing for people that have a core competency in something is to stay the course. And of course, once again, you have to be part of the future, but you have to stick with what you know really well.
D
Danny5:51
You and I last year had this discussion that this industry had lost its way. Do you think people have had that come to Jesus moment? Have they kind of come around or are there still lessons to be learned, do you think?
O
Orlando Bravo6:00
They're having it now. Look, if you see some of the software troubled credits, which there are, it's out there. It's not yet a product of AI having impacted those companies or those companies failing to transition to the new platform, which by the way is the biggest opportunity in the software industry. It really, really, really is. It's an issue of how those companies were run. People thought 10 years ago, after they saw all this money being made in private equity in software, that it was really easy. I buy subscription revenue, 90% gross margin, I cut some cost, and I'm good to go. They forgot to innovate. And they forgot to invest in R&D, and they forgot the domain knowledge of existing management by replacing them. And that's coming back to create some flatness in the environment, which is very difficult for those businesses.
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Danny6:48
By the way, any huge calls of how many people are going to be losing their jobs?
O
Orlando Bravo6:52
Look at this conference. As you know, I'm an optimist, but what we're seeing in development, the great use case for AI is we're hiring a lot more developers.
D
Danny7:01
Orlando, so great to see you. Thank you so much for joining. Always a pleasure.
O
Orlando Bravo7:04
Thank you.
D
Danny7:05
John, that's Orlando Bravo of Thoma Bravo. Interesting to hear. Again, he didn't like the term Softpocalypse ever, but it is dead. But also, that IPO window might need to wait a little bit before you can bring companies public just given the gravity pull of SpaceX.