About Stephen Miran
Stephen Miran, a former Federal Reserve governor who served an eight-month tenure and dissented in favor of a rate cut at all six meetings he attended, has commented on the central bank's policy approach. In a June 2026 interview, Miran argued that the Fed has an "excess focus on some backward looking data" and suggested that policymakers should instead base decisions on where inflation is expected to be 12 to 18 months out, citing the lag in monetary policy's effect on the economy. He stated that as long as inflation expectations beyond one year remain stable, Fed credibility is not an issue, but said credibility becomes a concern if those expectations begin to move.
In a May 2026 interview, Miran discussed his experience at the Fed, saying he was received internally "very politely" and "very cordially." He advocated for a smaller Fed balance sheet, arguing that a large one "implicates independence to an extent" and creates "murky" questions about the delineation between monetary and fiscal authority. Miran also noted that immigration has both hawkish and dovish implications for policy, lowering the breakeven payroll growth rate while also reducing the neutral rate of interest and being disinflationary through long-lived capital and consumer goods. He acknowledged disagreements with others on policy and said there had been signals from the White House regarding desired policy rates.
Source: AI-verified profile updated from Stephen Miran's recent appearances.
Browse all interviews →
✨ AI-enhanced transcript with speaker attribution
I
Interviewer0:00
As you know, the market's very focused on trade talks right now, and that's why we've seen equities recover to the extent they have over the past week. Stephen, the US says China wants to talk. China's going around saying the US wants to talk. I don't think the market really cares about that. The market just wants to see talks. What's the timeline for actual talks?
S
Stephen Miran0:16
So, the president has repeatedly said in recent weeks, and he's been very clear, that he thinks that we will do a deal with China. I think the president is right. And as I keep pointing out, the president has one of the best track records on making deals in the entire history of the country. He is able to pull deals out of a hat that nobody thinks are possible. He pulled the phase one deal with China out of a hat in 2018-2019 in spite of all the doubters. Many people didn't think that was possible, but he achieved it. And so, I think the president is right that we will have a deal with China. I can tell you I have good reason for that optimism. I think that it's in the interest of both economies to lower the temperature, to create breathing space, to continue talking, to figure out how we can get to a new stable equilibrium on trade. And I think that a little bit of de-escalation will be quite helpful. So, I would be surprised if tariff rates are where they are now within a few weeks from now.
I
Interviewer1:04
A few weeks. So, you're saying within a few weeks the 145% tariff rate on China is bound to come down. And to where, Stephen?
S
Stephen Miran1:12
Well, I can't get ahead of negotiations. I can't make commitments. I'm not part of the trade negotiating team. I'm not a trade negotiator. But what I can tell you is the president has been very clear that he thinks that there will be a deal with China. And I think the president is right. And I think it's in the interest of both sides to come to a de-escalation that lowers the temperature and creates breathing space.
I
Interviewer1:32
Well, China this morning put out a statement, the Commerce Ministry. So, this is official, saying China is currently evaluating this. Do you have a sense when the president is going to get on the phone with Xi Jinping?
S
Stephen Miran1:43
I don't. I don't. And again, you know, I'm not a trade negotiator. I'm an economic advisor. That's the scope of my role. What I'm giving you is my expectations. You know, I can't get ahead of the negotiations. I can't commit anyone.
I
Interviewer1:55
Stephen, I wonder if you could give us some insight though, just to the approach we're taking at the moment. The Treasury secretary mentioned just yesterday that maybe we could revisit the purchase agreement that we struck with China back in 2020. Is that something we'd look to do with other nations as well?
S
Stephen Miran2:11
Uh, you know, look, I mean, I think that there's a wide variety of terms that can be included in the different negotiations, and each country is different, each trading partner is different, and I suspect that each trading agreement that is reached will end up being different, too. But, things like that should definitely be on the table, and I think it's up to other countries to show America that they mean to make trade more fair, they mean to make trade more reciprocal, and they mean to create better markets for US exports the way that we accept their exports into our markets. And purchases like the type you're describing, you know, could work towards that ends.
I
Interviewer2:43
Well, the Europeans are looking at increasing the purchases of US goods to 50 billion euros to address what they say is the problem in the trade relationship. Is that enough to get a deal done between Washington and Brussels?
S
Stephen Miran2:56
Again, I can't, you know, I'm not a trade negotiator. I'm not making deals with people. I'm just an economic advisor, and I can't prejudge the outcomes of those deals. However, what I will say is that talking is better than not talking. And I do believe in the ability of the president to create deals that nobody expects. And once you start on that process, I think that there will be fertile ground for countries to see eye to eye to make trade fairer, more symmetric, more durable, more resilient, and create a more long-lasting stable global trading system.
