Michael Saylor1:52
Before I answer that, I'll just say one funny thing. In six years, our company went from an enterprise value of 600 million to an enterprise value of up to 120 billion and now it's like 80 billion or something. Not a single positive story in any mainstream media in the entire six years. Not one. And then when I became chairman and Phong was CEO, they said Saylor got fired. And then they ran a bunch of negative stories: Saylor got pushed out of the company, fired because the Bitcoin thing failed. And that was when we had two billion of Bitcoin. And then when we got to the point where we had 50 billion of Bitcoin, I guess two or three weeks ago, Bitcoin traded from 82,000 to 62,000. So we had a $16 billion mark-to-market loss. And so the story is, Saylor's company lost $16 billion. They basically revived me, put me back in charge of the company, and then made me responsible for the failed strategy, which I thought was amusing. But nobody... So if you have 800,000 Bitcoin and it trades down 20,000, you'll have a $16 billion mark-to-market loss. But nobody ever once asked the question, where'd they get the $16 billion to lose? Because we started the journey with $250 million of cash. And of course, the story is a company with $250 million managed to find a way to actually get the $80 billion to lose the $16 billion. But they will never write that story. The only moral or lesson of that is no one is ever going to write the story of your success. You shouldn't expect it until it becomes conventional wisdom. They will write the negative story, the cynical story. There are endless negative stories forever. For whatever reason, our Bitcoin strategy failed when we were two billion, when we were five billion, when we were 15 billion, when we were 30 billion, when we were 60 billion. It keeps failing. There's never been a positive story ever. It will always be negative. So you kind of have to craft your own narrative and you have to have your own distribution channel for messages, because otherwise the Peter Schiffs of the world who will tell you Bitcoin is a failure at a dollar will basically have it fail at a dollar, $10, $100, $1,000, $10,000, $100,000. It's like if after you got 300 times or a thousand times as big, you're still failing, you'll never succeed. I really think I attribute that to the fact that conventional wisdom is everybody will determine that they will declare you a success without thinking about it when it's conventional, and they will declare you a failure without considering it when it's unconventional. The conventional wisdom that works against you on the way up will then work to support you once you push through that barrier. Probably the danger is believing any conventional wisdom because it probably causes you to become corrupted in time. But back to your other issue. Bitcoin was 120,000 eight months ago. It's 60,000 now. It's more compelling now. It's sitting around the 200-week moving average now. So there's a massive base of support right now, which means it makes a lot more sense for a risk-averse investor or any diversified investor that has a portion of their portfolio in gold, equity, real estate, credit, and Bitcoin to be moving their allocation back into Bitcoin now. So you'll see a reversal in the market. If it were to fall to 30,000, Bitcoin, the digital capital, would be trading at a discount to its book value, to its 200-week moving average. That would mean it would be oversold. You would definitely want to buy it then. It's even more compelling. The equities that are levered on it, like the Bitcoin equities, the strategy, the Strive, are even more compelling, and the credit instruments would be more compelling. If you look at Austrian economics and consider the free market is always going to adjust supply and demand, when things are underpriced, you're going to see a flow of capital into them. When they get overpriced, you see a flow of capital out of them. I don't endorse trading strategies because I think you can get burned by them. But there are a lot of people that don't agree with me in the market. You might be shocked. There are a number of people that won't agree with me in the market. So there are a lot of derivative traders who will trade Bitcoin when it's 2x the 200-week moving average and they would buy it when it's at the moving average or below. So you'll see a lot of capital flow into it. It's going to be self-stabilizing at the end of the day. The thing to keep your focus... I don't worry too much. I generally think if you look at the history of Bitcoin, it tends to trade to a premium, a big premium to the 200-week moving average during periods of leverage, and then it trades back toward the 200-week moving average. So if you're a four-year investor, look at the four years, plot that, look at the current spot price, and you can see where it is. I tend to look at the 200-week moving average as the book value of the network. It's the book value of Bitcoin. It's the amount of capital that's been invested on a basis in the asset. So it serves as a pretty good floor. I think that's important. Otherwise, if you look back to 2022, after the FTX crash and the crypto crash, there was a point when our stock fell from $120 up to $1,200, went up by a factor of 10, and then in a crash it fell all the way back to like $120 or $130. So we had a 90% drawdown. We had a massive amount of debt and a lot of Bitcoin. At that point, we had net leverage of 10%. Then we had net leverage of like 200% or something, a very large leverage number. I don't know if the number is 200%, but it was much higher than it is right now. We had like $2 billion of debt and $2 billion of Bitcoin, something like that. So it was very heavily leveraged, and that was the best time to buy the stock. People that bought that stock, the stock rallied 800% in the next cycle. So I think that like it or not, for better or for worse, 99.9% of the capital in the world is not invested in Bitcoin and is not invested in the Bitcoin derivatives, the equity and the credit. So if Bitcoin trades down, it just makes the equity, the credit, and the commodity that much more compelling. You'll have capital drawn in that will support it back up. And then you'll have an extraordinary amount of wealth created in the next bull run. The last point I'll make is it's very important to stay focused on the fundamentals, and the fundamentalists have this right. Bitcoin is economic empowerment, it is sovereign property rights for the world, and it is the dominant digital monetary network. This is a maximalist idea, a fundamentalist idea. If you look at Bitcoin dominance or crypto dominance over the past five years, Bitcoin was about 70% of crypto from 2015 to 2020. Then when you had peak leverage with FTX and all the offshore derivatives, Ethereum rallied, Solana rallied, FTX rallied, Dogecoin rallied, Terra Luna and all this crypto stuff, dominance fell to 40%. It was like 41% of all capital in the crypto capital market on a capital basis, not on a liquidity basis. If you look at the last five years, the percentage of Bitcoin versus the other crypto tokens, not including stablecoin, Bitcoin dominance has gone from 40% all the way up to about 68 to 70%. So nature is healing. Bitcoin has emerged as the dominant crypto capital, really the only crypto capital network, the crypto monetary network. No one seriously thinks that Ethereum is going to flip. The flipping did not come. There is no Ethereum flipping. No one thinks Solana, Ethereum, Sui, BNB, Ripple, any of the other tokens are going to supplant Bitcoin as digital money, as digital capital. It took us 17 years to get here. Our company had to invest $64 billion. The institutional investors invested hundreds of billions of dollars in 17 years to get here. And what we know is Bitcoin is the dominant global digital capital network. So what is that worth? It's got to be worth 10% of all the capital in the world. Even if only 10% of the capital wants to be digital, that's a hundred trillion dollars. So what does it matter if it trades at 30,000 or 60,000 or 90,000? It doesn't matter whether it's currently valued at a trillion or half a trillion or two trillion. The market need is a hundred trillion or more. There is no second best. There's no competitor. You can't create anything. It's just like when Google won, they won. When Facebook won, they won. When Apple won, they won. When Coca-Cola won, they won. When you end up with the monopoly in the space, the franchise, you're going to have periods of hysteria where there's a panic. During the panic, Coca-Cola stock or Apple stock or Amazon stock or Google stock or New York City real estate will be cheap. Then the panic will subside and people are like, what the heck was I thinking? Why didn't I buy that when of course the world's not ending? If the world doesn't end, then having a monopoly on something is a good idea. Bitcoin has the monopoly on digital money, the world is not ending, and no one's coming up with a better digital money. We know that. So this is just a trading opportunity. Bitcoin trades down, you should buy it. By the way, if you have no money, it doesn't matter because other people have more money than you and they like money and they will buy it and it will trade back up again.