Michael Saylor1:02:04
I got it. Okay, until this year I would go to my investors and I said, well, we got a great company, we got 500 million, 600 million in cash, a great bulletproof balance sheet. And they looked at me like they're not going to value the cash. Like they didn't value my cash. They thought it was worth nothing. And I kind of took offense to that, like they don't get it. The cash means that we're indestructible, we're going to live forever, and we can do the right thing by our employees, our shareholders, and by our customers, right? And why am I being punished for being virtuous, for saving my money and for being responsible and conservative? And I was kind of angry, not angry, irritated a little bit, like they don't get it. And then I realized they kind of do get it. They had a different perspective. I just didn't understand what they were trying to tell me. And their perspective is, I mean, there's no rational investor that would raise a billion dollars and say my plan is to put it in cash and wait, right? You can't go raise that money. So their perspective was, assets are inflating at six percent or seven percent a year in a good year. If I'm not beating seven percent, I can't stay in this business. So that takes you to this notion that the asset inflation rate is actually just the cost of capital. Okay, and bingo. Your cost of capital, if you're the CEO of a publicly traded company in a good year, in a normal year, is six percent or seven percent. You better actually generate more than seven percent with it, or you got to give it back to the shareholders, down to the razor thin margin. Now, there's a certain elegance to that. Why didn't we actually do that? Well, it used to be we're thinking, I've got a bunch of capital, we're buying our stock back at a measured rate. And we were very friendly traded, so if I bought 20% of the stock back in the windows without moving the market, it takes me like seven years. It's very frustrating. And I can't go any faster than that without doing a tender offer. So we're doing a bit of that, and then along comes the pandemic and everybody gets kicked into high gear, and the P&L gets kicked into high gear, and we're transforming. And then this macroeconomic change takes place and the cost of capital now, it's not six percent anymore. The cost of capital just spiked. And so the fascinating thing here is, if you're a corporate treasurer, your cost of capital was six percent. This year your cost of capital is 25%. And then all the assets that you could buy go through the roof. And now that's a problem. Like, do I go buy a company? 90% likely I burn the business. I destroy it. If I buy a bad acquisition, then I probably make a mistake. That's a peril. Do I go buy the S&P 500 after it spiked up today? The most crowded trade, they're saying the most crowded trade is also the future expected returns are basically negative by most people's assessment for the next 10 years. So you're basically locking into a loss. It could very well be a lost decade for equities. So, I watched television for the past like four months, and it's just amazing to me that the equity commentators managed to find something positive to say every single day. It's amazing. So that doesn't really work for me. So my cost of capital spikes, I get sensitized to the issue. We start thinking, we got to do something. Okay, so now you put yourself in my situation. You have 500 million in cash. Cost of capital went through the roof, and every central banker wants to print more money, and every intelligent investor is telling you that cash is trash. What would you do if you're me? I came to the same conclusion you did. I mean, it's basically you need to look for an asset that's going to protect you in a number of scenarios, that has a high expected upside, that beats the cost of capital. And so that's the only thing I can think of. And so to me, it came down to gold and bitcoin. So we tick through these. So what can I buy? I'm not going to buy an individual equity. I'm not going to buy another company. Can I buy a portfolio of commercial real estate? Oops, half of commercial real estate's impaired, the other half is overinflated. And who's going to sell me 500 million dollars worth of commercial real estate at a fair price that's not impaired this year? That's not going to work. So now I'm down to, can I buy an index of stock? Well, anything you want to buy company-wise that's cheap is basically insolvent and comes with a bunch of debts. Anything that doesn't have a bunch of debts is crazy ludicrously expensive. Okay, you're right, I get it. So mark that off the list. So now, what have I got? Precious metals and bitcoin. So I look at two things that I completely dismissed, was oblivious to my entire life. And so all of a sudden you get hit in the head with a two-by-four, and you cross off your list, and every door is shut to you, but these two other random doors. And so you got to open up the doors and start to look. And so now I go down the rabbit hole and I start studying. And you can learn anything on the internet. So all of a sudden, Pomp gets discovered by me. I have this friend, Eric Weiss, who runs a crypto hedge fund. A couple years ago he told me about bitcoin. I thought, well, that's crazy. I kind of dismissed it out of hand, like, couldn't someone else create a bitcoin cryptocurrency and then all the money will drain away? And maybe, how do you know it's going to work? And so I just don't even look at it, don't even think about it. And when all the other doors shut, this one opens. And now I have a problem, right? If someone took 500 million dollars out of your bank, put it in your backyard, open the back gate, and then every month someone came in and they burned two percent of your money, you go from thinking your money is safe to having extreme anxiety. So now I got a problem. First I had to solve the P&L problem. Now we switch to the balance sheet. And so what do we do? Well, take this off. First, I go and I start studying the stuff, and I get introduced to stock to flow. Now all of a sudden I'm looking at Plan B. And what is stock to flow? Okay, two percent of the gold supply gets inflated every year. And then I start doing the math and I start thinking about it. I'm thinking, well, two percent minus whatever, it's better. And then I start looking at crypto and I look at bitcoin, and then I realized this is what... And then I start with all the concerns about bitcoin, right? What if it gets forked? I mean, there's nothing more anxiety inducing than when someone puts eight pages in front of you of what happens to your crypto if it gets a hard fork or a soft fork, and you're studying it. So I started studying it, but then I realized, here's what I realized in short order. Bitcoin's the 200 billion dollar asset. Bitcoin is a hive of cybernetic hornets doing the bidding of mother nature, protected by a wall of encrypted energy. That's what I saw once I started to dig. It's a living cybernetic hornet hive creature with a wall of encrypted energy. And lord help the guy that tries to shove his hand into that hornet's nest and steal from it. And I thought that's interesting. And then I studied Ethereum, that's the number two. And then I realized Ethereum is something totally different, a world computer. And they're still chasing after functionality, all sorts of functionality. And like, more power to them. Decentralized finance, it's interesting, it's experimental. It might be something that MicroStrategy builds something on in the future for Ethereum. Yeah, I mean, I guess what I'd say is, I saw all that stuff, but there's still a question of will it work? It has to be proven, and there are centralized competitors to it, and they're not done with the functional architecture. I mean, if you understand proof of work, then when the founder says, well, we think we're going to switch it to proof of stake because we don't think proof of work will work for us, then you realize there's a fundamental dogmatic set of assumptions and there's an existential debate going on there. Sure. Fast forward to the conclusion, which is, if you look at all the proof-of-work crypto networks, bitcoin is 92% of them all. The next competitor is two percent, the next competitor is one and a half percent, the next competitor is less than one percent. It's the market screaming to you that there's a winner. So when everybody says, well, you know, there might be another one, no. They wouldn't be. Well, this might be the MySpace. Well, no, if you knew anything about the history of MySpace, you would know that MySpace flamed out at a billion dollars. It flamed out when it was less than one percent of what bitcoin was. Bitcoin was never MySpace. Bitcoin is the Facebook of closed digital monetary networks, and it's already crushed everything. And it's eating, it's software eating the world, software eating money. And it's only going to get more powerful. So now we're back to my issue. I know I got to buy hard assets. It's a question of silver, gold, bitcoin. And now I start thinking about it. And here's what I'm thinking. I think everybody's too short-term on this stuff. You want to really understand it, step back from the noise, look at the big picture. How does this feel across time and space? I'm going to take a hundred million dollars and I'm going to give it to my successor in a hundred years. Okay, you want to send something to your grandchildren or your great-grandchildren? If you want to endow anything of value, a park, a company, an institution, a foundation, a family, or whatever, whatever you're a religion, a political system, I don't care what it is. If you believe in it and you want it to be here a hundred years from now, you got some money. How are you going to convey the hundred million dollars across a hundred years without losing it? Would you invest in Apple stock? Apple might not be around. Would you invest it in dollars? Traditionally, real estate's been that answer, but even that's risky. Okay, so you want to buy a hundred million dollars of real estate in California? Yeah, no. Okay, do you know what the property tax rate is in Florida? That's true, I forget about U.S. property taxes. Yeah, I know it's two percent. If you take a hundred million dollars and you buy Florida real estate, it's two million dollars a year. And by the way, it gets appraised up every year, which means that over 30 years you'll lose it all. The property tax rate on anything in the real world is going to drain it from you. You can't buy real estate. If you look at all assets you can buy, you buy a stock, you buy an equity, you've got a property tax, you've got an income tax, you've got employee payroll taxes, you've got regulation, you've got customs, you've got trade, you've got tariff. Now I'm going to come back to you with a question. How are you going to convey your family's wealth across the generations for 100 years? And if you're not, I'll just stop right there. How are you going to do it? You tell me. Well, the only thing is, and gold is not easy because where do you store it and how do you pass that along? Okay, so let me stop you there and tell me what the... I'm going to tell you what the problem is. The gold, I thought about. Take your 100 million dollars and put it in gold in a vault. Gold miners are going to print two percent more every year. Okay, if gold miners produce, if you own the entire supply of gold in the world, and if it was pure, right, for London delivery gold bars, and it isn't, but if it was, and if you were sure you owned it all, if gold miners create two percent more every year, the rule of 70 says every 35 years the gold supply doubles. Which means that you would own half the gold supply in 35 years, a quarter of the gold supply in another 35 years, and in a hundred years you're going to own about 15 percent, maybe even 12 percent of the gold supply. So here you'll like this. So I was thinking through something similar in a different way. I just wanted to look at the Fed balance sheet growth over the last whatever period I wanted to choose, and I looked at every asset against it. The Fed balance sheet outperformed everything outbound gold by 50. So gold's done a bloody lousy job. It's better than many things. There's only one asset, only one asset that did it, and it killed it was bitcoin. Okay, and by the way, I know why now, and I'll tell you what I think it is in a second. I thought I was going to buy gold, and a very smart guy that works for me, my consigliere, he said, he said, Mike, I remember gold back in the 70s and the 80s was 600, and then it traded down, and it's gone nowhere for a decade. And I'm like, everybody says gold's the ultimate hard money. What's the problem? What am I missing in this picture? And then here's what I realized. Gold's got an inflation rate of two percent over time. That means a hundred million dollars is going to be worth twelve and a half million dollars at two percent. You're going to lose 80, 85, or 87 percent of your wealth if it inflates at two percent. But it's worse than that, because gold's not pure. Half the gold supply is floating around, right? It's not all stamped good delivery bars in London. Yeah, that's the second problem. The third problem is, if gold price goes up, every miner is your enemy. They're going to print more, they're going to mine more gold, they're going to ship more gold, they're going to capital invest in more gold. This is the dilemma of every commodity business. And I used to work for commodities at DuPont. The dilemma is, if the price of the commodity goes up... Let's go back to oil. Fracking. We fought wars over oil. We went and fought wars over oil to protect our oil. What happened when the price of oil went to a hundred dollars a barrel? Fracking. We invented a new technology. And by the way, what happened? The US produced so much oil, it became a world crisis. We doubled, we produced five million barrels a day, and now we produce 10 million barrels of oil a day, and then 11 and 12. And everybody was like, hold it, you're going to produce too much oil. Okay, and then you realize OPEC, the secret to making money in oil is a cartel. John D. Rockefeller understood it, a cartel. Anything that humans can produce with their brains and with capital is going to get overproduced. And that's the problem with using a commodity as a money, because ultimately if gold is successful, then intelligent people are going to produce more gold, and you're going to double, triple, quadruple the supply of it. Anything with a supernormal return gets arbitraged away. So those returns are only available for a period of time. Everybody gets into the game, the margins collapse. I mean, it's everywhere. That's capitalism. And so people that think they're buying hard gold, the problem... By the way, I could have another cast, I could talk with you for two hours about the technical problems with gold. But I don't want to get derailed by that. I want to basically start with a simple premise. If I look at bitcoin, there's a lot of people in the bitcoin community talk about stock to flow and how it's going down, and I appreciate it and I think it's a good contribution, but I have a different take on that as a public company CEO. Which is this: every time I print my share count, there's only one number that matters. I print fully diluted share count. No one ever asked me, well, how many shares do you have this minute? Nobody ever asked me how many shares are going to vest with employees next month or next year. They just ask me one question: what's your fully diluted share count? We take your earnings, we divide by that, we're done. Take your revenue, divide by that, we're done. The fully diluted bitcoin count is 21 million. Done. The fact that it's going to trickle out about it, I don't care. Fully diluted bitcoin count, 21 million. Instead of saying it's the hardest stock, stock to flow is higher. Now stock to flow is exponentially going to infinity. Stock to flow is infinite, which means it's infinitely hard. Because a rational actor, and I consider myself a rational actor, I didn't buy bitcoin expecting I was buying this much bitcoin divided by 18 million, 500,000. I bought the bitcoin thinking I was buying that share of 21 million. And I knew that. And so now we're back to this very simple thing. You take your 100 million dollars and you hold it for a year in fiat currency, you're going to have one percent or half a percent of it left. You're going to lose 99% of your money in a hundred years. By the way, I know that to be the case. I have a house in Florida. A nice house in Florida. It would cost you 15 million dollars to buy that house, 20 million today. I have the sale deed for that house in 1930. You know what the number is on it? A hundred thousand. A hundred thousand dollars in 1930. Count the number of years between 1930 and the year 2020, and figure out what the depreciation rate was on fiat currency in the US dollar. It's, you're going to lose 99% of your money if you put it in cash. Okay, so we all agree on that. Okay, this is the thing that people don't say. You're going to lose for sure 85% of your money if you put it in gold. You're for sure, by the way, and that's assuming that nobody invents a better chemistry for gold, we don't find gold anywhere else, nobody invests any more money in gold mining, nobody gets any smarter, and the gold price doesn't go up too much. And if all those things are true and people still use gold, you're going to lose 85% of your money. But if human ingenuity kicks in, gold's a commodity, you're going to lose 90% of your money in gold. Now if you put your money in bitcoin, you're keeping it all. You're not losing anything. Once, if you don't believe in fully diluted bitcoin count, you have a 15% loss in 100 years. But if you do believe in it, there's no loss. Now let me give you another analogy. You want to cross the Atlantic. If you cross the Atlantic in a vessel made of fiat currency, it's like stitching together a bunch of inflatable rafts. You're crossing the Atlantic in an inflatable boat with a leak in it. Or you want to cross the Atlantic in a gold vessel. You're crossing the Atlantic in a wooden ship. It's sort of good, but it's rotting. It's a wooden ship. It's better than inflatable, it doesn't have a leak in it, but it's wood and it's going to decay. It's decaying two, three percent a year. You're crossing the Atlantic in bitcoin. It's a steel hull freighter. The thing about steel, you know, like I say to the guys that say, well, why do I want a steel boat? They go, well, because steel is indestructible, and the welds are harder than the original steel. If you put a hole in steel and you weld it, the weld is stronger than the original material. Steel will last as long as you maintain it. It will last forever. Okay, so rubber boat, wooden boat, steel vessel. And now here's an epiphany. Right, I mean, if that's not enough, I mean, there's no comparison between losing 80 to 90 percent of your money versus not losing any of your money. There's no comparison. But here's another epiphany. I'm an aeronautical engineer from MIT. I studied spaceship design, I studied aircraft design, I studied building design. You know, the entire science of civil engineering requires one element. You know what the element is? Steel. Think about it for a second. I build a building with wood, you can build a two-story building. You ever see a five-story wooden building? I built, you know, that's fiat. I build a building of stone and masonry. Look at all of Europe. All of beautiful Europe, every building in Europe, five stories, six stories. That's as far as you go with brick. What happens when I invent steel? I build a 50-story building. You think steel is twice as good as bricks? Yeah, you can build a hundred story building. Steel is elemental to, or instrumental to, New York City. There is no New York City without steel. There is no skyscraper. There's no science of civil engineering until you invent steel. You could say iron maybe if you want, but without the element of steel, there's no civil engineering. Now flip to aerospace. You ever see a plane made of steel? No, they don't fly. Steel is the perfect element except for the fact it's too heavy to fly. That's why we use aluminum. No aluminum, no airplanes, no industry, nothing. Take away aluminum, the entire aviation industry goes to zero. Andrew Mellon made his money on aluminum. Andrew Carnegie made his money on steel. These are fundamental things. These were technologists. The entire industry is based on it. Now, the gold standard, good idea in the 19th century. The best idea you could have in the 19th century. But I mean, just like wooden ships, pretty good idea to have wooden ships if you're the British Empire, if that's the best you can have. Now along comes bitcoin, cryptocurrency. It's, when I say it's harder than gold, I mean it's not just 10 times harder, because it goes 100 years without losing any of its value. I say it's harder because it's an organic nest of cybernetic hornets feeding off of encrypted energy. It's a living thing, which means that the miners are going to keep upgrading their equipment, the developers are going to keep upgrading their development, the nodes are going to change, everybody, the ecosystem is going to change. And they're changing in this terrifying Darwinian, capitalistic, libertarian, aggressive, winner-take-all, hold-no-bars, no one company, country, companies holding like that. I've been CEO, I thought I was right. I was wrong. You could be the most brilliant CEO at all, anything that's controlled by a CEO is crippled. Controlled by a state is crippled. Controlled by a country is crippled. This entire thing is its own ecosystem. Gold is not going to get a million times smarter in the next 10 years. It's not thinking at all. It's a lump of metal lying there. Nicholas Taleb wrote Antifragile. I think Taleb is brilliant. I love all of his books, read every one of them twice. Bitcoin is an antifragile, evolving thing. It's the hardest currency because it's getting continually exponentially harder. It's getting harder, but it's also smarter, stronger, and faster than gold. It's smarter because I can create a computer program, I can put on a machine behind that bar, and I can have it make a million trades with your crypto every night while you're sleeping and move it around. But I can't do it with gold. If I want to move a hundred million dollars of gold, I got to put it on a jet, fly it around the world. It's $250,000 to physically deliver $100 million worth of gold. I can physically deliver $100 million worth of bitcoin in five bucks, and 30 minutes, depending upon how risk-averse you are. But if I want to move it, I can put a piece of software on it. By the way, Ralph, when I move a hundred million dollars into a crypto exchange to buy crypto, I got to talk to like three bankers on the phone, and they're asking me for my birthday. Ralph, you can go on Google and you can Google Michael Saylor, and do you know what Google puts underneath the Google for my birthday? My birthday. So the banking system is running about a million times slower and less secure to move this stuff around. When I put this elemental energy into bitcoin, it's smart because it's getting smart as fast as the smartest crypto bank can program something intelligent. And I am in awe of how many of these things are going on so fast. D5 and C5, it's not clear to me whether you're going to use D5 or C5. Doesn't matter. Whatever is going to work is going to work. It's all happening. It's faster because it's dematerialized gold. I look at all my employees and I say, we're in the virtual wave, guys. You can now move at the speed of light and bend time and space. What are you going to do with it? If I can actually take your $100 million worth of gold, dematerialize it, chop it into 10 million pieces, and move it around the world 100 times a second, something new is going to happen. And it's stronger. It's stronger because you can liquidate a hundred million dollars with bitcoin on a Saturday afternoon in a foreign country in a foreign currency. And you can do this, and maybe you might take a three percent haircut. You might be like, oh holy crap, it's volatile, it moved down 300 bucks. Well, three percent haircut to liquidate $100 million of gold on a Saturday afternoon? Try doing that in Istanbul. Try liquidating $100 million sitting in a vault in New York City in Tokyo on an afternoon on a weekend. So the issue is, gold's going to be audited once every... By the way, I apologize for digressing, but you can't make this stuff up. It's really hilarious. When I borrow $100 million from a conventional bank, you know how they verify my collateral? They ask me to have my accountant prepare a financial statement as of the end of last fiscal year. And so I actually deliver a statement that has all of my assets on it. And if I'm borrowing money on June 30th, I'm giving you a January 1st financial statement. And I'm asserting that I have not double pledged the collateral or committed bank fraud. And my accountant is asserting it. And that's a pretty serious thing. But I'm saying it tongue-in-cheek. That's ridiculous. Why do people care about publicly traded companies? Well, a public company has more credibility than a private company, and has a lot more credibility than a private individual. And here's one reason why. I and my CFO sign Sarbanes-Oxley statements, financial reports. Every quarter I sign my financial report. If I lie to you, Ralph, it's a crime. I go to jail. If a public company officer misrepresents the state of the balance sheet, the state of the business, you asked me like, how's the future of the business? I'm going to equivocate. I think we're, you know, the future of the business will be the future of the business, and we're just really excited about working on the future of the business. It's because it's a crime for me to mislead. So the way that we actually certify collateral is via regulations and criminal statutes. And that's why the most credible entities in the world are American publicly traded companies. Because everybody knows that if you trade on the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange, and you're a CEO or a CFO of an American... If I heard a guy that worked for a guy that worked for a guy that worked for a guy that worked for me in a foreign country was actually doing something sloppy, I'm thinking, well, Foreign Corrupt Practices Act makes me criminally liable for that, and that person gets chopped off. So that's the way that you actually pledge collateral normally. With bitcoin, we've totally turned his head. Anybody can inspect the fact that I own the bitcoin in one second. And every 10 minutes you could take a complete audit of everything. I wrote that article about it being the world's most pristine collateral. It's perfect. It's the foundation stone of everything. As you were talking about, it's the steel of an entire new financial system. I think what you've said is brilliant, but I don't think it's understood when you say it's the world's best collateral. The world is operating on like gold is collateral. It gets audited every seven years or every three years. It might be there. It's impossible to move. And it's impossible because of rehypothecation and the reuse of assets. Bitcoin ownership is guaranteed, so it's so pristine. The only thing we haven't got is a yield curve. So your third... Yes, you've got it implicitly in the fact that it's got a limited supply. But eventually there will be a market for you to lend out your bitcoin, and it's going to trade at a premium to US bonds, because it's like you lending out a piece of art. Well, if somebody's going to borrow your piece of art, they're going to pay you for it. I totally agree, and I think the yield curve is coming. And when I look at the forward contracts, it's very fascinating to me. But yeah, summary of my entire meandering analysis is, bitcoin, if it's not a hundred times better than gold, it's a million times better than gold. And there's nothing close to it. And most people, they're focused upon stock to flow is better. And what they haven't factored in is the smarter, faster, stronger makes it a million times better. And it's steel to masonry for the firmament of the 21st century financial ecosystem.