Michael Saylor28:31
It's another story. I learned a lot of lessons. The short lesson is: don't run out of money, always have cash on the balance sheet, and don't spend more money than you're taking in. I feel like an idiot to give that advice to anybody, but it's still good advice. Let's fast forward back to 2020. We had the money. We were very conservative, no debt, ready for a rainy day, ready to seize the opportunity, buying stock back. COVID hits, the pandemic hits. Our equities are in the tank. We're losing momentum. In Q1, it's all shock and awe. In Q2, the question is how does this impact my customers, our business, our product, our value proposition? Everybody gets impacted differently. If you're running a cruise line or a theater, it's different. Sometimes counter-intuitively. In our case, we sell enterprise software that helps you think better. We sell business intelligence to lots of government agencies, massive banks, global 2000 companies. Even the ones that get impacted, like the national airline, they can't go out of business. That's our customer base. We realized our software kept working, demand was still there, everything was smooth. The great thing about software is you can ship it over the internet. All of our services went remote. Our value proposition was intact. The surprise for us was our productivity went through the roof and our cost structure compressed. $20 million a year flying around in airplanes went away, $10 million worth of trade shows, $20 million worth of marketing things went away, but the customer demand didn't go away. We found we were much more efficient. Bottom line, we got that black swan event, but it actually kicked us into high gear productivity. That was the positive on the P&L side. We realized we were going to generate more cash, and there was no rational business plan where I take $200 million and spend it to make the business better. I can burn it, but I can't spend it to make the business better. Simultaneously, we got a gift from the Fed on the macroeconomic side. While we're trying to figure out what happens on the P&L, all of a sudden we see the long bond index go up 22%. If you asked me what's the investment you do not want to make, I would never in a million years buy a 30-year bond that yielded 2% interest. Never ever. Yet that was a winner this year. If you bought a 30-year bond at 2% interest and interest rates go to 1.2%, you've got a massive spike. Equities spiked, big tech spiked, bonds spiked. We looked at our cash. I had to listen to a litany of talking heads. Ray Dalio said cash is trash. Every podcaster that trolled Ray Dalio said cash is trash. I went to school at some point, probably after I realized I had a problem. I listened to you describe the plight of the working man. I go to work, I get paid $500,000 a year, I save $50,000, put it in my piggy bank, I have $500,000 in cash in the bank, I have kids, I have a future. Then all of a sudden I realize the cost of a college education is going up at 8% a year, and my cash is yielding zero. The Pomp Podcast is telling me I'm crazy to work for dollars and save my cash. If you take the $500,000 in the plight of the lawyer with two kids, when I send them to Harvard and the $500,000 of cash in the bank yielding zero, and now multiply everything by a thousand, that's me. I have a $500 million company, we're making $50 million a year, I have thousands of people working as hard as they can, we're sacrificing right and left, squirreling our pennies away, putting it into the bank account. There it is. In 2019 and before, we worried about the unknowable and thought maybe we'll use it for something. I'm a bit older than you. I remember when you got 5% interest overnight on your money. It wasn't that long ago that the risk-free interest rate was 5% before the Great Financial Crisis. I'm like, 'I'm going to make $25-30 million a year on this.' I kept hoping and waiting for those good times to come back. I was the guy that when the 30-year T-bill started to go to 3.5%, I thought, 'Finally, they're going to go to 4%, then 5%, back to normal.' Hope was dashed. It went the other way. What happens next? Asset inflation goes through the roof. This entire conversation of inflation is really twisted because everybody talks about consumer prices, CPI. We're not getting enough inflation? You're not getting inflation on YouTube, Netflix streaming videos, candy bars manufactured by robots, Domino's Pizza. You're getting inflation on everything you want. If you wanted an Ivy League education, a beachfront house in Miami, an apartment in New York, anything scarce, everything you want is going up 7%. That's asset inflation. If I want a bond that's going to yield $50,000 a year, it used to cost a million bucks. This year it cost $10 million. The cost of the asset good went up by 2%? No. I have a house in Miami Beach, a nice house built in the 1930s. I have the deed of sale for the house, $100,000 for that house in 1930. It's gone up in price by a factor of 100. So no inflation? It's asset inflation. I didn't really think about it until I got slugged in the face with the 2x4 around March or April when Main Street shut down, the economy shut down, and bonds went through the roof while every city is bankrupt, while Apple stock and every other public tech equity went up, multiples blew out, and the economy went to the worst place I've seen in 30 years. At that point you start having a thought with yourself: what is the true inflation rate? We should probably coin a different term. If you looked at asset inflation on a good year for the last decade, it's 7% a year normal. This year you could make an argument it was 25%. If you look at the long bond index and these equities, you can make an argument that the asset inflation rate was between 25% and 30%. What does that mean to me metaphorically? I felt like I had $500 million of cash in the bank safe, yielding 2-3%, ready for a rainy day. Then every month some banker sends me a note saying the interest went down. Now there is no interest. Then someone took my cash out of the bank and put it in the backyard on pallets. Then they open my back gate, and every month someone comes along and starts burning 2% of the money. I started thinking, in 12 months, 25% of the money is going to be gone. Then I started thinking, what is the point of all this? What am I doing wrong? The answer is you can't hold cash. So what do you do with it?