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J. Gallagher
Chairman & CEO, Arthur J Gallagher & Co

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Quarterly Investor Meeting with Management June 17, 2026

🎥 Jun 17, 2026 📺 Investing 101 ⏱ 147m 👁 1 views
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About J. Gallagher

J. Patrick Gallagher Jr., chairman and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., has been discussing the company’s financial performance and strategic outlook in several earnings calls and investor meetings in 2025 and 2026. He reported that the company’s two-pronged revenue growth strategy of organic growth and acquisitions delivered revenue growth of 28% in the first quarter of 2026, with organic growth of 5% and M&A contributing 23%, driven by results from Assured Partners. Gallagher stated that the company expects cash taxes paid to be around 10% of EBITDA for the foreseeable future, citing $655 million in tax credit carryovers and approximately $11 billion in future tax-deductible amortization expense. He also said the company might have close to $10 billion to fund M&A over the next two years before using stock, and that the M&A pipeline remains strong with targets at attractive multiples. Gallagher has also commented on market conditions and the role of artificial intelligence. He described the current insurance market as having "cycles within the cycle," noting that property rates are softening while casualty rates continue to see increases. He said the company is "one storm away from the market turning in property." Regarding AI, Gallagher stated that he is "not afraid of AI at all" and described it as "another tool that strengthens how we serve clients," adding that it is expected to be "minimally disruptive" to selling insurance and consulting, while potentially accelerating growth by improving speed to market and client solutions. He also said the company continues to believe its equity is "woefully undervalued by the market."

Source: AI-verified profile updated from J. Gallagher's recent appearances. Browse all interviews →

Transcript (47 segments)
✨ AI-enhanced transcript with speaker attribution
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Operator0:00
Good morning and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Company's quarterly investor meeting with management. The call is placed on listen-only mode and will be open for questions. The presentation call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Some of the comments made during the investor meeting, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward-looking statements with the meaning of securities law. The company undertakes no obligation to update these statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements and risk factors sections contained in the company's most recent earnings release and Form 10-K and 10-Q filings for more details. For reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures discussed during this meeting, please refer to our most recent earnings press release and other materials in the investor relations section of the company's website. It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Chairman and CEO.
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J. Gallagher1:10
Good morning, thank you for joining us. We hold this meeting to give the investment community a chance to hear from our business leaders and better understand what continues to drive Gallagher's growth and long-term value creation. Outside of the busy earnings season, it serves as a primer for new investors. I'll discuss Gallagher's strategic pillars and why we believe we are very well positioned to grow revenues and improve profitability. I'll give an update on the insurance market and economic conditions. After me, you'll hear from our business leaders discussing their businesses, markets, trends, growth opportunities, and operating initiatives, including specific examples of how they're using AI and how they see the second quarter developing. Our CFO will provide more detail on Q1 results and the financial outlook. One of the questions I hear most often is why Gallagher continues to grow across different market environments and outpace the industry over time. The answer lies in our strategies that have stayed consistent for decades. First, organic growth. Even after growing organically by over $1 billion and acquiring more than $4 billion in annualized revenue since 2020, we still touch less than 5% of the global insurance market. The industry is highly fragmented. Second, mergers and acquisitions. The opportunity remains substantial because insurance distribution remains highly fragmented worldwide. So far this year, we've completed 15 mergers representing around $200 million of estimated annualized revenue. Our pipeline includes 40 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing around $200 million of annualized revenue. We remain disciplined on valuation and focused on culture. Third, increasing productivity and raising quality. More than two decades ago, we began building our Centers of Excellence, where today over 18,000 colleagues handle many of our back-office and client servicing activities through standardized processes and common systems. This work is important for our AI differentiation. The differentiator is not simply that we are using AI today — it's that we built the foundation over many years with standardized workflows, clean data, and a global operating model. That foundation allows us to move with speed and consistency as we deploy AI across the business. AI is not a future initiative for Gallagher — it's already integrated in how we operate, how we support our professionals, and how we serve our clients. We're embedding AI in practical, workflow-driven ways across brokerage, claims, benefits, reinsurance, and M&A, with a consistent focus on improving speed, insight, and execution. In brokerage, AI is reducing the time required to analyze carrier quotes, summarize loss data, and prepare renewals. In claims, we're using AI to identify severity and litigation earlier. Importantly, AI makes our brokers, consultants, and claim professionals more effective — it does not replace them. As risks become more complex, clients continue to need judgment, advice, advocacy, and market access. Now let me update you on the insurance market and economic conditions. Property lines are seeing premium decreases, down approximately 9% year over year. Casualty lines are up about 5%, including general liability up 1%, commercial auto up 4%, and umbrella up 8%. Overall, property premium changes are up about 3%, with stronger increases in U.S. international markets. We see meaningful differences by account size, with property risks facing the most pressure. Mid-month revenue, audits, and cancellations are in positive territory, continuing to point to solid underlying activity for the quarter. In the U.S., the number of jobs is ahead of the number of people working. Healthcare costs continue to trend higher due to innovative medical treatments and prescription drug costs. Employers are continuing to look for cost-effective ways to support their human capital needs. Overall, these indicators suggest underlying market conditions that support our business and continue to support our growth expectations for 2026. Let me preview what you'll hear from each of our business leaders. Mike will discuss our Americas PC and specialty operations — how scale, niche expertise, data, and technology help us win in the marketplace. Patrick will discuss our international PC, London specialty operations, our global platform, digital ecosystem, and specialized expertise. Tom will discuss Gallagher Re and our global M&A strategy. Our benefits leader will walk through employee benefits, HR consulting, and operations. Scott will discuss our risk management business. And our CFO will bring it all together financially. I'll now turn to more detail on our organic growth. Our combined brokerage and risk management operations are on track to deliver full-year 2026 organic growth of about 6%. We have deep capabilities in advisory across more than 72,000 colleagues. Insurance is one of the most essential products in the global economy — it touches just about every sector, all of which have increasing risk and greater complexity. We estimate more than $8 trillion in insurance premiums globally. Contributing to broader market growth is the ever-increasing size and complexity of risk, meaning insurers need our expertise more and more. Emerging technologies, energy transition, and cyber threats all require specialized expertise, better data, and more sophisticated placement. Today you'll hear from the team how we have industry-leading talent with deep expertise across products and geographies, a consistent approach to sales and service, and an ever-increasing global brand. Those strengths are reinforced by the scale of our Centers of Excellence and the technology and AI capabilities we continue to build. You'll also hear about the diversity of our model, with operations across P&C retail, wholesale, benefits, reinsurance, and claims — each with different growth drivers and sensitivity to market cycles. Another way we create long-term value is through mergers and acquisitions. When firms join Gallagher, they get immediate access to expertise, carrier insights, digital and AI tools, thought leadership, a recognized brand, and elevated service from our Centers of Excellence. It also strengthens Gallagher through the addition of talented producers, specialized expertise, and local market relationships.
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Mike1:31:43
I'll discuss our Americas PC brokerage and specialty operations in the US, Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean. I'll cover current insurance market conditions, how we've implemented AI across the business, and what we're seeing so far in the second quarter. Our Americas PC brokerage operations generated over $4.5 billion of revenue in 2025. Our largest America's retail operation is in the US, where our US retail PC operations generated over $3 billion of revenue. Including the recent acquisitions of AssuredPartners and Wood, pro forma revenue would have exceeded $4.5 billion with roughly $35 billion of premium placed. In Latin America and the Caribbean, we generate around $200 million of revenue across 15 countries with more than 2,000 employees. In Canada, we are a top commercial lines broker generating nearly $300 million of annual revenue with approximately 1,500 employees. Most of our clients are middle market commercial clients who spend between $100,000 and $2.5 million on annual insurance premiums. These clients often have complex insurance needs but limited in-house risk management resources. We are well positioned because we combine deep industry specialization and local relationships with the scale, data, and resources of a global platform. Gallagher Blueprint combines our knowledge and data-driven approach with AI to focus on the most important drivers of our clients' total cost of risk — helping clients evaluate coverage adequacy, improve loss control, optimize program structure, and decide when to retain risk versus transfer it. The risk management, advice, and solutions we provide are strengthened by our niche practice groups — specialists who understand the products, exposures, and industry-specific needs that matter most. They work side by side with our producers in the field. We have a deep bench spanning property, cyber, technology, construction, energy, reinsurance, space, and executive risks, to name a few. This strategy reflects more than 30 years of deliberate investment, practice by practice. Data centers are a good example of how that specialist model creates value. They are one of the fastest-growing and most complex risks in the market today, driven by AI, cloud computing, and digital infrastructure demand. They are large, capital-intensive projects often with insured values in the billions, cutting across property, construction, cyber, energy, interruption, and executive risk. Our advantage is that we can bring those specialists together, backed by hundreds of professional colleagues who help data center clients with risk management, safety protocols, claims resolution, and claims advocacy. Claims advocacy is another real differentiator for Gallagher. When clients have a loss, we bring expertise, market relationships, and execution to the claims process that helps clients recover faster and stay focused on running their business. It deepens relationships, supports retention, and makes revenue more durable over time. When we bring a client to market, carriers understand the risk, the client's operations, the loss control work already done, and the coverage structure — making risk conversations more efficient on both sides. Turning to specialty: our specialty business generated approximately $1.5 billion of annualized run-rate revenue. Our US wholesale operations, known as Risk Placement Services or RPS, represent about half of specialty revenues. RPS includes open brokerage, programs, binding, and managing general agency businesses, engaging with over 25,000 retail clients. The other half comes from Affinity, risk pooling for public entities and member-based groups, and alternative solutions including captive management and ILS administration. Now for insurance market trends. So far in the second quarter, renewal premium change — both rate and exposure combined — is down around 2%. Fees and stronger commission rates produce positive renewal revenues over the same period. There has been much discussion on property renewal premium moderation, which is still mostly driven by our larger accounts. Other lines show increases. Excluding property, renewal premium change was up 4% over the last month, consistent with the first quarter. Strong exposure growth and the work our teams are doing on placement and structure help drive revenue even as property rates moderate. As that environment moderates, revenue growth will increasingly reflect exposure and activity growth rather than pricing. In the US wholesale market, open brokerage renewal premiums are down about 4% and binding premiums up about 2%. This is the kind of market where our expertise, product knowledge, and data matter most. We're deploying AI in three practical ways: improving producer quality and matching through tools like Smart Market and Gallagher Guided, enhancing submission and placement workflows, and strengthening data analytics. These tools are already embedded in our workflows, helping producers evaluate carrier options faster and make more informed placement decisions. Based on what we're seeing thus far, the underlying trends are constructive. Renewal revenue increases continue, net new business spread remains positive, and client retention is strong. We continue to expect mid-to-high single-digit organic growth for our specialty and Americas retail PC businesses.
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Patrick Gallagher1:31:31
Thanks Mike and good morning everyone. I'm Patrick Gallagher, Chief Operating Officer. Today I'll focus on our retail P&C units in the UK, Australia, and New Zealand, along with our London specialty business. I'll cover three things: an overview of these businesses and what differentiates us globally, the insurance environment in each market, and what we're seeing so far in the second quarter. Our international retail operations in the UK, Australia, and New Zealand generate approximately $4.5 billion in annualized revenue with over 12,000 colleagues. These businesses are an important contributor to Gallagher's growth story and one of the clearest examples of how we have successfully scaled our model across geographies. Taken together, these businesses have the scale, reach, and market positions we have built across some of the most important insurance markets globally. Despite operating across different markets, our clients often share many of the same insurance and risk management needs, so our sales approach and tools look a lot like the Americas. We have a unified global go-to-market playbook at our core that brings a consistent approach to risk management, industry expertise, data-driven insights, and client service. Our global platforms deliver more informed advice through tools such as Gallagher Drive, Smart Market, and Gallagher Go. Gallagher Drive shows prospects and clients insurance buying trends for similar Gallagher clients from around the globe. Smart Market has evolved into a global offering used by most of our large carrier partners, helping connectivity and efficiency. Our international retail operations also heavily leverage our Gallagher Centers of Excellence for large portions of their client servicing. Decades of investment have made our processes more connected and standardized, creating the data foundation behind our technology capabilities. That foundation, along with a more unified technology infrastructure, is enabling us to deploy AI in practical workflows. We're focused on use cases that improve productivity, strengthen decision-making, and create better outcomes — including policy checking, quote data extraction, and better submission quality. Turning to our London specialty business. London was established in the 1970s, primarily supporting agents and brokers in placing specialty insurance including marine, aviation, and other complex risks. We have over 800 colleagues there. Our growth priorities are: first, deepening our specialty capabilities by expanding market relationships and product offerings, including financial, cyber, and energy risks. Second, adding and developing talent including seasoned producers. Third, focused on placement efficiency and the best route to market. Market conditions: UK renewal premium changes are down about 1%. Property is down 2%, commercial auto is up 1%, liability is flat, and D&O and cyber together are up about 3%. In Australia, renewal premium changes are down about 1%, with property lines down 3% and liability up 9%. In New Zealand, renewal premium changes are under pressure, down about 6% overall, with property down about 10% and cyber up 6%. For London specialty, geopolitical conflicts, climate change, inflation, and higher insured exposures create continued opportunity. In some cases, rate pressure is being offset by slower activity as geopolitical uncertainty affects new placements and renewals. We see continued opportunity for our London specialty team to deliver strong solutions for clients around the world. We expect mid-single digit organic growth in the second quarter and full year 2026 for our UK, Australia, and New Zealand retail and London specialty units combined.
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Tom Gallagher1:44:33
Thanks Patrick and good morning everyone. I'm Tom Gallagher. Today I'll cover two topics: our global reinsurance brokerage operation, Gallagher Re, and our global M&A strategy. Gallagher Re is the third-largest reinsurance broker in the world, formed through the combination of our 2013 startup Capsicum Re and the purchase of WTW's treaty reinsurance business in December 2021. We finished 2025 with more than $1 billion of revenue, much of which comes in the first half of the year given the timing of major reinsurance renewals. We provide advice, modeling, strategy, and placement expertise across treaty, facultative, and other risk transfer solutions globally. As risk gets more complex and capital solutions get more specialized, clients rely on us to manage volatility, access capital, and optimize program structure. Within our reinsurance business, we've grown organically by investing in talent, capabilities, and client relationships. We finished 2025 with 14% organic growth and we continue to see good opportunity ahead. We're broadening our product offerings including solutions across life and health, marine, energy, cyber, and property. We're adding seasoned producers and deepening global client relationships through expanding existing relationships and new cross-selling. Our integrated technology platform helps us harness our global footprint, proprietary data, and market access to generate actionable insights at scale. We're using the power of Gallagher to create cross-selling opportunities with our retail, specialty, and benefits businesses. We're using AI in core platforms like Workbench to extract and structure quote information from documents and emails, improving data quality and accelerating workflows. We're also using AI with our data and analytics capabilities to generate better insights from proprietary data. The important point is that AI does not replace judgment, relationship, trust, or market access — it makes our brokers better by giving them faster access to cleaner data, sharper analytics, and more usable market intelligence. The January, April, and June renewals reflected many of the same themes: abundant capacity, meaningful risk-adjusted rate reductions in property and specialty lines, and some more pricing discipline. The conflict in the Middle East increased uncertainty but has not changed the broad reinsurance market dynamics. We do not currently expect it to alter broad pricing trends across the market. As we look toward the upcoming July renewals, the broad backdrop appears consistent: ample capacity, continued competition in many lines, and demand for thoughtful structuring and advisory support. Now for our global M&A strategy. M&A is an important part of Gallagher's strategy. The market remains highly fragmented with roughly 30,000 agencies and brokerage firms in the US alone, plus substantial opportunity across our other major operating geographies. Most of these firms are smaller and privately owned. Gallagher is a strong long-term home for these entrepreneurs who want to do more for their clients, grow faster, and create more opportunity for their teams. M&A brings together entrepreneurial spirit, local relationships, and specialized expertise with our scale and culture. Gallagher brings a broad set of capabilities to help merger partners serve clients and grow, including specialized expertise in niche practice groups, data and analytics capabilities including Gallagher Drive, broader risk management capabilities, carrier relationships, and scalable operational support through our Centers of Excellence. We see AI helping us move faster through screening, document review, and parts of diligence, while our people remain focused on judgment, negotiation, and integration. We remain confident that our proven M&A strategy will continue to create value for our merger partners, our clients, and our shareholders.
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Gallagher Benefits Executive1:57:00
Gallagher Benefit Services, also known as GBS. Today I'll cover three topics: a quick overview of GBS, how we help employers navigate their benefits challenges, and our outlook for the second quarter. GBS was established in the mid-1980s and has grown into a global business focused on helping employers address their pressing workforce and benefit needs. GBS is one of the largest benefits broker consultants. At the end of 2025, we had $1.5 billion in annualized revenue with an annualized run-rate of over $1.5 billion. The US is our largest geography, representing approximately 90% of annual revenues, with the remaining 10% predominately from the UK, Canada, and Australia. Our producers provide solutions across a range of benefits products to help businesses address their human capital needs. About two-thirds of annualized run-rate revenue comes from health and benefits offerings, including traditional group insurance coverages like medical, dental, vision, disability, and life, as well as plan design, financial projections, and cost-saving strategies. One-third comes from retirement services, compensation advice, executive life, HR consulting, and other similar offerings. The opportunity goes well beyond traditional compensation consulting and medical coverage. Employers can address financial wellbeing and retirement savings programs, and support physical and emotional wellbeing through a broader range of health and workplace solutions. Our role is not just to place medical and health insurance — it's to help employers address their most important HR and organizational challenges as they manage broader workforce goals. The macro environment is supportive of growth. We are seeing more employers focus on retention strategies compared to attraction strategies. Managing rising medical costs is becoming increasingly important. Medical costs continue to rise through 2025, and we expect that pressure to continue in 2026. Insured renewals at our largest carriers are showing high-single-digit to roughly 10% premium increases. In stop-loss, we're seeing average premium increases in the mid-teens, in some cases 20%. These trends are driven by increased utilization, health provider consolidation, and higher utilization of higher-cost drugs including GLP-1s. As healthcare costs continue rising, employers are looking for ways to support their human capital objectives while managing ongoing medical cost inflation. Our work goes well beyond placing insurance. We start by understanding the client and their employee population, then develop solutions including narrow networks, preferred provider arrangements, centers of excellence, and pharmacy strategies. Pharmacy costs are rising faster than medical, and our teams are skilled at working with PBMs to identify savings and opportunities. We're using AI in practical ways across GBS to work faster, generate better insight, and create more personalized experiences. Gallagher Drive remains a differentiator because it gives clients and prospects clearer insight into benefits program performance, helping support plan design and coverage decisions. We also differentiate by sharing our expertise through webinars and thought leadership on topics including HR compliance, weight loss drugs, and workforce-related issues. In the first months of the second quarter, we saw favorable net new business spread, growth in benefits business, and strong demand for individual products and retirement consulting offerings. We expect second quarter organic growth of approximately 3% and full-year 2026 organic growth of 4%, tracking in line with our expectations.
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Scott Hudson2:04:08
Thanks and good morning everyone. I'm Scott Hudson, and I lead our third-party claims administration business, Gallagher Bassett. I'll cover three topics: an overview of Gallagher Bassett, key elements of our success including technology and AI, and our growth strategy. Gallagher Bassett was formed in 1966 and has grown into one of the largest third-party administrators in the world. Our core business is straightforward: we adjust claims on behalf of our clients. We don't take underwriting risk. In 2025, we handled more than a million P&C claims and paid approximately $18 billion in losses on behalf of our clients. We have over 5,000 colleagues and finished 2025 with approximately $800 million in revenue. We focus on serving four types of clients. First, large commercial and Fortune 1000 companies that outsource claims resolution. Second, public entities including state, federal, and school districts. Third, group and market insurance entities. Fourth, insurance carriers that choose to outsource or white-label portions of their claims handling. The carrier opportunity is sizable and largely untapped — around 90% of US claims are still handled by carriers. However, we believe that dynamic is starting to shift as carriers look for more flexible, capital-light operating models. We handle all P&C exposures, with most work in workers' compensation and liability, and additional expertise in cyber, environmental, marine, medical malpractice, professional, and product liability. Our revenue mix is approximately 60% from workers' compensation, about a third from liability, and approximately 7% from property. Through the acquisition of My Plan Manager a few years ago, we also expanded into disability claims management in Australia, where we are the largest provider. Our technology platform, Luminos, has been consistently recognized as industry-leading. We're leveraging vast amounts of data, including AI, to help claim managers make better, faster, and more consistent decisions at key points in the claim lifecycle and to automate routine work so managers can focus on showing empathy, building relationships, and exercising judgment. We have AI capabilities in use across the business including workers' compensation severity prediction and early intervention models, auto liability severity prediction, reserve adequacy assessment models, and natural language processing for fraud detection. We recently showcased our technology and solutions at RIMS 2026, the world's largest annual risk management event, with overwhelmingly positive response confirming our investments are on the right track. Among the solutions highlighted were AI-powered fraud detection and Luminos predictive risk management capabilities. In 2025, we completed two acquisitions: WK Webster, a marine and transit claims specialist expanding our global footprint, and a safety consulting firm. In 2026, we announced two more acquisitions: a German-based global transport and marine claims specialist and a UK-based shipping and maritime legal services firm. We have an active pipeline of potential merger partners across all major geographies. Momentum remains strong. We continue to win new business across all geographies, claim volumes are increasing, and carrier pressures remain elevated, reinforcing demand for high-quality claims management. For the second quarter, we expect organic growth of 11% driven by several large new business wins. For full-year 2026, we now expect organic growth of approximately 8%. We continue to estimate EBITDA margins in the 21 to 22% range for both the second quarter and full year.
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Doug Howell1:15:57
Thanks Scott and hello everyone. Today I'll recap what you heard from each of our business leaders, highlight some items from the CFO commentary document, provide comments on cash, M&A, and capital management, and summarize some comments on AI before we move to Q&A. Demand for our services is strong, and client retention and new business are both excellent. The teams are using data analytics and technology in ways that are clearly improving outcomes for clients. The market background is reasonably consistent with what we expected at the end of the first quarter. Property remains competitive, casualty remains firm, and pricing still varies by account size, complexity, and loss profile. The teams highlighted compelling, practical uses of our Centers of Excellence, technology, and AI — better workflows, better placement outcomes, and better service. There was a key point about differentiation in the middle market: our brokers and teams are showing clients tools, data, and benchmarking at the point of sale that smaller brokers simply do not have. That matters in winning new business and keeping it. In reinsurance, judgment, market access, and trust — bolstered by technology and AI — drive success. Benefits showed solid demand with rising medical costs creating advisory opportunities. And Gallagher Bassett is providing additive growth with increasing claims complexity, growing international opportunities, and a revenue base less tied to the insurance pricing cycle. Pulling it all together — PC retail, wholesale, and specialty brokers, reinsurance, benefits, and claims management — we see a diversified, well-positioned business that is growing. For the second quarter, we expect organic growth of about 5%, and for full-year 2026, approximately 5.5% for brokerage. For risk management, new wins and international growth have increased organic growth expectation to 11% in the second quarter with estimated 8% for full-year 2026. Now for the CFO commentary document. FX moved a bit over the last six weeks, so please update your models. We now expect annualized run-rate synergies of up to $325 million by early 2027, up from $300 million forecasted when we last spoke in April, and well above the $160 million we originally estimated when we announced the AssuredPartners deal in December 2024. That kind of synergy progression says a lot about Gallagher's acquisition strategy and integration capability. On the AssuredPartners integration: the integration remains on track. The conversion of the roughly 300 branches onto our agency management systems is progressing well, with the vast majority planned through mid-2027. Our margin expectations are unchanged. Productivity and quality efforts should again deliver terrific underlying margin expansion. We're starting to get additional margin lift from rolling in AssuredPartners synergies. On cash management: we estimate close to $4 billion of capacity to fund M&A over the next two years before using any stock. Our M&A pipeline remains strong with attractive multiples, which creates immediate shareholder value. In the first quarter, we repurchased approximately $200 million of our shares; in the second quarter, another $100 million. Our priorities remain unchanged: invest in organic growth, be active in mergers and acquisitions, stay consistent, and be disciplined. On AI: I'm as enthusiastic today about the opportunity as I was 22 years ago when we first went to India and hired our first employees — we're now 18,000 strong across five locations. What you heard this morning is real AI embedded into standardized workflows using our common systems, improving the operating infrastructure and speed we built over many years. We're funding it inside our normal technology budget, and the benefits come in stages: productivity and quality first, then margins, and over time, revenue. I believe over the next few years we'll see about 5% savings in our producer and field sales layer, maybe 10 to 15% in our service layer cost, and 20 to 30% in our back-office layer cost. Some of that will be reinvested to meet changing customer demands and investment needs.
We're now going to move to Q&A. We'll do this in two parts. First, we've listened over the last few weeks and compiled a lot of common questions into about 10 questions that each leader will address. Then we'll get to those on the line for other questions.
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J. Gallagher1:28:37
When asked what investors are missing about what drives Gallagher's growth, Gallagher responded: There is underappreciation in the marketplace of the consistency of our execution — that's probably more than anything else. In our business, new business matters. Having boots on the ground, bringing customers in, makes a difference. Retention matters. Diversification matters. And I think some people just focus too much on the cycle. I've heard so many industry observers just say, 'Well, the cycle is softening, here we go, we're out of brokers.' And they're not looking at the actual growth that we're delivering to our shareholders.
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Mike1:29:26
When asked about Gallagher's competitive edge in winning new accounts, particularly in large accounts versus mid-market: We're a great large account broker. In fact, I think we've shared with this group in the past that large accounts are our fastest-growing segment. But remember, 90% of the competition is in the middle market. Our tools, analytics, and data are advantages. We come in with better benchmarking, better structure ideas, better claims advocacy than a smaller broker usually can. That's what helps us win business and keep taking market share.
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Patrick Gallagher1:30:05
When asked what Gallagher's AI advantage means in practice: We have an advantage given our decades of standardized processes and common systems. Many firms can test AI tools, but few can deploy them broadly and safely. If you already have common systems, common data, and repeatable workflows, it's so much easier to deploy AI, which will continue to differentiate us over time.
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Gallagher Benefits Executive1:30:49
When asked whether AI could eventually pressure benefits growth if it slows down hiring: I don't think it's really an unemployment story. It's more about how people are looking for different things. People are underinsured and need health, wellness, and retirement benefits. As that need for advice actually increases, benefits will become even more important. Workers still need help with benefit affordability, plan design, financial wellbeing, and communications. That ties directly into our advisory, analytics, and brokerage capabilities.
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Mike1:32:05
When asked about the data center market opportunity as AI buildout accelerates: Look, I think this is a great market for us. In fact, we just picked up a very large win just last week. But I would frame it as part of a broader complex risk opportunity. It's not one vertical that changes the whole company. Data centers bring large values, technical risks, cyber exposure, and complex placements. That plays perfectly into our strengths. So yes, it is a positive area, but I wouldn't overstate it financially. We're going to get our fair share of wins.
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J. Gallagher1:33:04
When asked why Gallagher is not worried about AI having a disruptive impact on organic growth and why it helps the model: Look, the world is just getting more complex, and that is what drives an advisory-based business — and that's what we are. We already know AI can improve analysis and workflow, but it doesn't replace judgment, trusted advice, market access, or insight. So a client buying a complicated coverage placement that's tough and complex still wants an advocate in the middle. That's why AI is a real enhancer to the broker model, not a disintermediator.
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Patrick Gallagher1:33:55
When asked why AI doesn't lead to more disintermediation and why the broker relationship is still valuable to carriers: That's a good question. Because carriers value brokers for the quality of the submission, the exposure analysis, the placement efficiency, and the risk transfer expertise we bring. Brokers still matter after the placement — on claims advocacy, renewal preparation, and giving carriers the data they need to evaluate risk. Carriers that work with well-organized brokers with clean data and structured submissions can deploy capital with more confidence and better outcomes. It makes the risk conversations more efficient on both sides.
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Doug Howell1:35:42
When asked about the financial benefits from Gallagher's own AI investment: You heard me in my prepared remarks — we get productivity and quality first, margins follow that, and then over time I see us getting revenue benefit through better service, faster response time, and winning more business. As I gave some of those comments earlier, that's a three-to-five-year journey. But this is accelerating every day. We've got flowers blooming around the company — we're experimenting, we're learning. I think we're going to be able to push the opportunities for AI efficiency and profitability. It'll come faster than I think any of us really expected.
When asked about the organic growth breakdown and why Gallagher is still comfortable with 5% organic for the full year given property softening: Nobody has a crystal ball, but I think that's a grounded approach to figuring out how we get to it. Our 5% organic growth target shows the diversification of our model, and it's a bigger story than just property pricing. Casualty is still firm in most places. Rates are contributing but maybe only around 1% of our organic outlook today. The bigger drivers are new business, retention, client activity, exposure growth, new coverages, and customers opting into coverages they went without when prices were going up. We tend to track more closely with things like nominal GDP, payrolls, insured values, and the exposure growth of our customers. Our data shows we're operating in strong economic conditions. Pricing matters but it's only one input. Nothing we're seeing today is changing our confidence in the outlook.
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J. Gallagher1:40:29
When asked about the M&A environment and whether valuations are even becoming more compelling: Our approach has not changed over 20 years. The market is competitive. Our discipline matters. We concentrate very closely on culture and cultural fit — that's been a very big part of our success over the years. We continue to see a very healthy pipeline. Our standards are the same: we want strategic fits, we want people who love the business, who can run a good business, who fit culturally. That's what creates value.
When asked about buybacks versus M&A at current valuation levels: Listen, you've heard me say this in other situations. If we buy back shares of stock, we get a nice picture of our Gallagher, who's a hell of a salesman. But I tend to favor trying to get more boots on the ground, get new partners, get new ideas, get new geographies, get new niches. We're buying brains, we're not buying businesses. And those brains that have the opportunity to trade with ourselves, work with our wholesales, work with London, work with Gallagher Bassett, work with our captives — there is a safety opportunity in buying back shares that we think are undervalued, but this is a business that's growing so much. We're placing $4 billion a year in premium. We need more boots on the ground, and we get that organically through our internship program and through nice tuck-in acquisitions. It's a tradeoff that we balance, but I tend to favor growing our business rather than contracting it.
When an analyst asked about brokerage organic growth and whether the expected pickup in the second half is still expected from incremental reinsurance demand during midyear renewals: Yes, we're still seeing that happening. In fact, we're seeing across all of our business that customers are opting to buy more insurance. The third quarter might be a touch higher than the fourth quarter when we look at how it rolls in. If it's 5 or 6% each of the next two quarters — maybe we'll get six in the third and four in the fourth, or seven and five, something like that. But there's not that kind of wide variance around our expectation by quarter.
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Doug Howell1:44:38
When the same analyst asked whether the 5% Q2 organic guide includes the same amount of revenue synergies from AssuredPartners: Our organic growth guidance does not contemplate any synergies from AssuredPartners. The AssuredPartners thesis was that they were running nice organic growth — not at our level, but with an opportunity to improve by about a point and a half once they get our tools and capabilities. Our thesis that we're going to improve organic growth for those producers who had been waiting 11 years for sales enablement tools is going to come true. There's nothing that makes us think it will be different.
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Tracy1:45:35
When an analyst from Wolfe Research asked whether pricing is asymmetrical given that pricing is only around 1% of organic outlook today but we saw a nice uplift during the hard market: Gallagher responded that what they're talking about is total premium change, and yes, there is a bit of an asymmetrical relationship. As rates were going up, exposure units were growing so much. As rates go up, their main function for a client around advice and dealing with the risk is also mitigating that price increase. As prices come down, they tend to do a pretty good job of rediscussing with clients the value they bring — reminding them that they took pays on the way up and maybe now is the time to share a little bit of that downside. Smart customers understand this. They don't need to make as much on the way up; they need to get some of that back on the way down, and they're totally transparent with clients about the value they bring.
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Doug Howell1:47:04
When the same analyst asked about leverage targets and buyback capacity: We're comfortable moving our leverage up in order to do M&A. I don't think we want to push our leverage ratio up for the sake of it — we have so many M&A opportunities. We have been consistent that we run the debt ratio up when we do M&A. The point is that 2.5x is a reasonable bogey. There are a lot of adjustments that go into that including rating agency considerations and debt covenants. But as we think about how much we can buy back, we're not trying to reduce or increase our debt ratio — our focus is on growing the business.
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J. Gallagher1:49:38
When an analyst from Capital Markets asked about organic growth decoupling from pricing and whether Gallagher expects pricing to stabilize: As we look out for the year, the 5% number is assuming about a point from rate, maybe half a point or so from exposure unit growth, maybe a full point there, and we have a forward thrust of about gaining share of about 3%. On property, we're getting through the heavy property renewal season right now. We are assuming property will continue to move lower somewhat throughout the year. We haven't started looking at next year yet, but sitting where we are right now, I'm not seeing a huge slide in 2027 as much as we've seen property come down between 2024 and 2025 and 2025 and 2026. It's been sequentially going down about 10% each year. I don't think there's another 10% coming out of this market next year overall. Durational property is also not coastal-exposed property. You've got a lot of non-cat-exposed property that still sees issues with convective storms. So I would not expect the property market in 2027 to have a similar downstep.
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Doug Howell1:51:36
When the same analyst asked whether the guide includes the same amount of revenue synergies from AssuredPartners: Our organic growth guidance has not contemplated any synergies from AssuredPartners. AssuredPartners gets a better commission structure because of our program. When the transaction was done, AssuredPartners was running nice organic growth — about a point and a half less than us. The opportunity is when we get AssuredPartners into our full-year numbers, we will now have a year of opportunity to improve organic growth for those producers. We're having some terrific wins and we are better together.
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Mike1:53:11
When an analyst from Evercore asked about data center-related placements contributing to organic growth and market share: If you heard my last comment, I wouldn't factor data centers into a true impact on organic — it's going to be part of our normal organic growth storyline. I wouldn't single it out that way. As far as market share, it's a little bit more difficult to unpack. Data centers come in very different sizes — the average is about half a billion dollars of total insured values, all the way up to the big ones of $15 billion and more. We play very well. We organized our structure — our teams in London and the United States all talk on a routine basis, put out content, and prospect. We have relationships with a lot of the real estate developers and construction companies building these. I can't speak to overall market share, but we will get our fair share and it was a great win last week.
When the same analyst asked about the pipeline and timing of data center conversions: The pipeline is robust, but the timing can be a little bit funky. There's a lot of pushback from municipalities. There's a lot of question marks around whether or not people want these data centers where they live. But we're going to get our fair share.
When the same analyst asked about stronger commission rates and whether that's something Gallagher can continue to push up: I would go back to some of Doug's comments on that in addition to mine. In a market that's softening, commission economics become very important. We drive value, and you heard Patrick talk about the quality of submission, the volume that we're now placing. When you combine Wood and AssuredPartners, that gives us the opportunity to increase our commission economics. Again, this is fully disclosed to our customers. But it also comes in a package — asking if we're on a fee, which is about 25 to 30% of the time. We're driving tremendous value to our customer, and where we can earn a raise on that placement for the great work we're doing — not only on the placement but also on claims advocacy and so forth — it comes in a bunch of different packages beyond just commission. We feel like we'll be successful in this marketplace given the volume, the quality, and the carrier relationships to drive that.
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Patrick Gallagher1:58:08
When an analyst asked about quantifying the extent to which Gallagher Drive and other initiatives are improving new business win rates and client retention: I think we have some decent stats on when Gallagher Drive is utilized, or frankly any data or digital output from our teams is used with a client or prospect. We do see our close ratio go up. If you normally close 30% of the prospects in your pipeline, we're seeing that increase to 40% and 50% when we place digital, Drive, and benchmarking in front of our customers. So yes, getting it out into the field, into as many hands as possible, and in front of as many prospects as possible will definitely drive our hit ratio.
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Mike1:59:17
When the same analyst asked how Gallagher's new business close rate compares when competing against larger peers: It's on par with exactly what Patrick described. We think the tools we've invested in show very well. We've been told by outside consultants and other firms that our platform — Gallagher Drive, Blueprint, and others — stand out as a differentiating factor from impartial third parties. We believe those give us a very successful opportunity when we compete against someone of our size or bigger.
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Doug Howell2:01:14
When an analyst asked about the AssuredPartners revenue numbers coming down and what that means for organic growth: As we understand their systems and they come onto ours, brokerage fees or commission shares with outside brokers — we're showing gross revenues and then some expenses associated with that. Now we show that net. If we co-broker with somebody, we do not put that into the revenues nor do we put it into expenses — that's just their share of the revenue. So you're seeing a little bit of apples to oranges. We will say that those revenue numbers, as we discover more of where there's commission sharing, you could see a decrease in total revenues, but the EBITDA is not changing — that's just geography in the accounting. Our thesis that we're going to improve organic growth for AssuredPartners producers who had been waiting 11 years for sales enablement tools is going to come true. There's nothing that makes us think it'll be different, but you can't use this table to reach that conclusion.
When the same analyst asked about M&A activity seeming lighter this quarter despite a robust term sheet pipeline: We always are a little short in the first couple of quarters. People tend to accelerate to try to get something done between now and the end of the year. Sometimes that can be tax-driven or estate planning-driven. I think there is a realization happening right now — sellers are coming to grips that the valuations they're going to get by selling their business are probably not as rich as they used to think. But our story is getting better and better. The mystery of what equity means — given by a PE owner versus us, where we have one common stock, we pay a cash dividend, we pay earn-outs in cash, and we're not asking them to take prom notes they can't make — that resonates. Sellers are coming to grips that valuations are coming down, and sometimes it takes a while to adjust.
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Mike2:07:22
When an analyst from Raymond James asked about the competitive environment for producer talent, including recruiting behavior, contract terms, and non-solicitation protections: We think we've got a great place to work, so we look at that as an opportunity to recruit great talent. Doug mentioned we've got 650 young people coming in through our internship program this summer. We recruit our own, we build our own, but we are very strategic. If we have someone who's unhappy where they are, we abide by non-competes, we don't see that changing. If we want them on the team and think they can build a bigger book of business with our expertise and capabilities, we go about doing that. Our pipeline hasn't changed — we still have an active group out there connecting with people. Another point I think that doesn't get made very often is that clients are getting smarter about what's in it for them. When we try to recruit someone from someone else, with the tools we're talking about, we give the answer to that question: 'I'm going to Gallagher for myself for sure — I want to work at a place I'm happy — but you as a client are going to win.' An awful lot of our competition doing team moves and all this other doesn't have that answer.
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J. Gallagher2:08:09
Gallagher added: I think another year of the fact that some of the return expectations that maybe these producers were expecting in their current homes — if they have any type of equity — aren't coming through. I think we're going to have more and more opportunities because they just can't wait for point-of-sale capabilities to better themselves. They can sit at their old firms for a long time and never get the sales enablement tools that we have. I think we win there. And London is pretty frothy right now — there's a lot of change and a lot of movement going on, and I think we're the calm harbor.
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Scott Hudson2:10:26
When the same analyst asked about the risk management business, noting strong growth and compelling AI commentary, and whether growth could accelerate: Our strong performance continues. It's a reflection of the investments we're making, our emphasis on great outcomes, and the story becoming more compelling across all the client segments — whether it's carriers, large risk management, or public entities. We feel really good about where we are.
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Doug Howell2:11:32
When the same analyst asked about headcount implications from efficiency improvements and AI: Let me break it down. I think you're going to see our headcount on producers go up. I think you'll see our middle office — as we bring more efficiencies through technologies, centers of excellence, and AI — we have enough internal attrition that will naturally contract that workforce. But frankly, we're growing so much that just holding steady could be a really nice improvement in the back office. I do believe AI will continue to allow us to harvest the benefits of natural attrition. It won't be a perfect one-to-one match as AI comes in, but one thing I will say right now: we are hell-bent on making sure that if technology causes a job to be no longer necessary, our human resource department works to redeploy those people.
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Mike2:13:49
When an analyst asked about property revenue trends given the disconnect between rate increases and Gallagher's own experience: Let's break that down. Any large account or medium account with a property tower and huge cat exposure — we're working on a fee for them. Large property placements are more of a fee-based business than a commission business. When you get into more of the middle market property in packages, those rates are still holding in compared to cat-exposed property. So on average, we're benefiting from about a 20% premium change in property. But you need to think about huge property placements as more fee-based. Some of these other dynamics help, and when you look at that number, 1% is probably where I think organic was influenced by rates in general. Property is getting maybe a negative half point and casualty a positive point or something in that range — we're not having huge swings based on property. It's a very narrow range around that 1%.
When the same analyst asked about US wholesale property pricing specifically: You're going to see that as being a little bit more outside of that range. I think wholesale property might be the tail that wags a little bit more. Overall wholesale renewal premium — depending on how you define it with open brokerage, programs, and binding — is running in kind of the mid-to-low single digits combined organically.
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Scott Hudson2:17:25
When the same analyst asked about where Gallagher Bassett found the large new business win that drove the improved growth outlook: It was a large win specifically around fraud detection in the auto space. They have a large exposure, and we found some new innovative ways, particularly using AI, to detect fraud. More importantly, we were aggressively working in partnership with them, and it made a big difference.
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Doug Howell2:18:36
When an analyst from KBW asked why it takes two to three years for revenue benefits of better service from AI and whether there's been any carrier pushback: You're mixing up a couple of things. Revenue benefits will take a little longer as they emerge into our hit rates. When we sell somebody today and use AI to help us sell, sometimes that's an 18-month sales cycle. What I said is when the benefits come in to Gallagher, it will take us two to three years to probably realize those cost savings numbers. The real reason is that a lot of that has to do with span control — as workloads improve for the daily workers and that information gets scraped to a reportable level in the span control layer, it just takes a while for that to get implemented and for span control to increase. We're going to do most of that with natural attrition. An example would be: I don't know if I want AI to do wire transfers, but I have no problem with AI tabulating how many wire transfers, scanning for quality control, and scanning for fraud. I don't want AI actually doing it yet, but I don't have a problem with it being there, tabulating and reporting. That just takes a while to lay over the actual work layer.
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Mike2:20:38
When the same analyst asked about growing faster in the large account space and how that compares to competing with larger brokers: I did not say we're growing faster by taking away from our bigger competitors. I said our book of business and our new business is growing faster in the large account space, and a lot of that is taking large accounts and pieces of large accounts away from the smaller brokers who don't deserve it in the first place. Our takeaway ratio and win rate against our larger competitors is about on par with our win rate overall. I'll share a quick story: we just picked up a really nice account here in Chicago — three six-figure accounts that had been with a local broker for 20 years. We came in and showed all the tools and resources we could provide. It was a gut-wrenching decision for the CEO to fire what was one of his best friends. The impact of our tools and resources can take 18 months, two years, to unravel those relationships. We have to get someone fired to get hired. But the tipping point of those tools and resources continues to show itself in our win rate, whether it's a smaller competitor or a larger one.
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Patrick Gallagher2:23:01
When an analyst from Goldman Sachs asked about the Middle East conflict and whether Gallagher is seeing delays in activities or products, and how it's trended versus Q1: This is Patrick. It's a moving feast. The biggest portion of our business that touches that is the London specialty team — the marine team, the aviation team. When I was talking about a slowdown, there has been a slowdown in aviation in the region. While there are war risks and other great issues that drive revenues and exposures up, there is some delay in construction projects for energy and construction. There's some delay in flying. But then there's also the marine side that is assuring the boats in the Strait of Hormuz. So it's a real moving feast. The delays are mainly in regard to aviation.
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Mike2:23:42
Mike added: I will add this from the organic outlook perspective for the quarter. When it comes to our London specialty and reinsurance business, there is one large account that I'll be honest — I don't know if it's going to renew here in June or July 1. I don't know if it's going to be a June 30 placement or we get it put to bed in July. That might be a $10 million flip between first and second quarter to third quarter. But what we're feeling is there's a lot of pent-up demand in our marine business and aviation business. So there could be some timing between quarters. But I think the demand for our services is going to be even more, and I don't think rates are just going to drop down immediately because there's been a memorandum of understanding that will take 60 days to get flushed out.
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J. Gallagher2:24:46
Gallagher added on inflation: I think inflation causes pressure on replacement cost and placement value. You've heard me speak before that I'm not completely convinced the carriers are done with their march to get properly paid on replacement cost across the spectrum. I think inflation puts pressure on medical costs. I think inflation puts pressure on replacement cost on liability settlements. Clients struggle with the impact of inflation because their premiums go up, and that's where we're there to help them. I think there could be inflation pressures but I'm not completely convinced the business can't handle that in terms of premium rates. It might put a floor in some of the rate-cutting pressure and competition out there pretty quickly. One last thing before we get to my final remarks: it's really been interesting to me to look at our data — which I think is sensational data — on our cancellations, our audits, and what's actually happening in our book of business. The resiliency of the middle market accounts, literally across the world — you keep seeing things, we've got a war in Iran, we've got Israel and Lebanon going at each other, and you expect, 'Oh my God, business has got to slow down.' But the middle market just keeps on keeping on.
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Mike2:26:54
When the same analyst asked about US retail commercial auto renewal premium change accelerating quarter over quarter: Yeah, you've got a lot of bad accident activity and people running into each other.
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J. Gallagher2:27:06
Thank you again everybody for joining us this morning. I think you've heard today loud and clear that we are confident in our ability to execute and believe that we're very well positioned for long-term growth. We look forward to speaking with you again after our second quarter earnings call this summer.