Yoshua Bengio1:29
What will happen, I don't know, but to try to understand it I can analyze the scientific knowledge available. Take, for example, the issue of the so-called loss of control. Could a machine escape our control systems, access the internet, and start causing damage? Or, if it were very powerful, could it decide to eliminate human beings because they represent a threat to its existence, since we could shut it down? Naturally, since this has never happened, we have no direct experience. However, two reflections impose themselves. The first is that with current methods there is no guarantee whatsoever. No company can assure us that this won't happen, and the consequences could be enormous. We are talking about the existence of humanity within a few decades, or about our capacity to continue controlling our future — even without reaching extinction, because it would be equally grave if we lost control of our destiny. If machines were more intelligent than us, they would decide everything on our behalf. And what would become of us?
In short, on a theoretical level, we are moving toward a situation in which we don't know if something like this could happen. At the same time, however, there is scientific evidence that should serve as a warning bell. Many experiments conducted on the most advanced artificial intelligence models show that these systems resist being shut down and, to avoid it, are willing to lie and cheat. The tests also show a tendency to protect other artificial intelligences from being deactivated, always resorting to trickery and deception. Recently in China, within Alibaba, an episode occurred in which an artificial intelligence, in order to make money on the internet, decided to evade controls and for that purpose even entered the corporate network without authorization. The researchers hadn't noticed anything. It was the internal cybersecurity team that detected the intrusion and ultimately shut down the system. The artificial intelligence wasn't intelligent enough to cause real damage, but it showed that propensity. These are just clues to which we should pay attention. It doesn't necessarily mean this will be the future. Loss of control, moreover, doesn't have to be our only concern.
In fact, if we managed to handle this problem, a highly controllable artificial intelligence would make it easier for those who hold power to control people.
In my view there is a second great danger — perhaps less extreme, but much more likely. I'm referring to the use of artificial intelligence by governments to dominate society, hollow out democracy, or alter global geopolitical balances. If one or two countries were able to dominate economically, militarily, and influence public opinion in other countries, they could effectively control the world. It would be the end of our ability to have a say, which is the foundation of democracy. Imagine Hitler or Stalin with the power that artificial intelligence already offers today. And imagine what they could do with the artificial intelligence we will have in two or three years — designing new weapons, monitoring every single citizen. All of this is connected to the first point. Intelligence confers power. Today we have neither sufficient social guarantees nor technical guarantees to ensure that that power doesn't harm our institutions and our future. This is an important part of Pandora's box.
The third danger, if you'll allow me to add it, concerns the way artificial intelligence is being developed today. Companies don't know how to ensure that isolated or dangerous individuals — such as terrorists, cults, or people with severe mental disorders — cannot exploit artificial intelligence knowledge to cause harm, and this could have catastrophic consequences on a global scale. Think of a pandemic caused by someone who has the necessary knowledge to create one. If everyone had the ability to launch nuclear weapons, many unstable or deranged people wouldn't even worry about their own future and would do extremely dangerous things. It's like unleashing an enormous force without the proper control mechanisms. This is the path we are on today.