Robert Armstrong on election probability
From How the Markets Are Reacting to Harris vs. Trump — ft. Robert Armstrong | Prof G Markets · · TheProfGShowScottGalloway
“The most important overarching fact here is that for all of the political turbulence the probability that Trump will be the next president doesn't seem to have changed that much — so that has kept the market moves from being anything like cataclysmic or violent.”
On , Robert Armstrong, Chief Marketing Officer at Zebra Technologies Corp, spoke about election probability during How the Markets Are Reacting to Harris vs. Trump — ft. Robert Armstrong | Prof G Markets on TheProfGShowScottGalloway.
About Robert Armstrong
On the July 25, 2024 episode of *Prof G Markets*, Robert Armstrong, US financial commentator for the Financial Times, discussed the market's reaction to the 2024 presidential election. He stated that markets had been "pretty calm" because the betting market probability that Donald Trump would win remained around 60% after Joe Biden left the race, meaning there was "not a massive reshuffle." Armstrong noted that the political events were overlaid on a change in the inflation outlook, citing a June CPI report that suggested the Federal Reserve was "clear to cut rates." He attributed a surge in small-cap stocks to two possible factors: a political reading that Trump and JD Vance are "not very enthusiastic about big American tech," and an economic reading that small caps are "very rate-sensitive" and benefit from expected rate cuts. Armstrong said that a Kamala Harris victory would likely signal "a continuation or 'steady as she goes'" for markets, noting that corporate profits have been strong with low inflation and decent growth. He described American assets, particularly large ones, as "more expensive than global assets" due to global capital flowing into the US market. On the Federal Reserve's independence, Armstrong argued that members' "lifelong reputations" depend on correctly managing the rate cycle, so he does not believe the decision will be "consciously partisan." He also advised listeners to "maintain some distance" from the election, stating that "the keys to your happiness are likely outside of this election."