Ray Dalio on historical cycles
From Ray Dalio: Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order · · Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California
“Three important things are happening today that drew my attention to the need to study them in the past because what's happening today has not happened in our lifetimes before but has happened many times in history. So that led me to study the last 500 years of history particularly the rise and declines of reserve currencies and the reserve currency empires.”
On , Ray Dalio, Founder at Bridgewater Associates, spoke about historical cycles during Ray Dalio: Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order on Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California.
About Ray Dalio
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has been publicly discussing his "five forces" framework for understanding global economic shifts, which he outlined in a Forbes interview in June 2026. He has stated that the U.S. debt burden has passed a "point of no return," comparing debt service payments to plaque squeezing out the flow of blood in the circulatory system. Dalio has also warned that the artificial intelligence boom is showing characteristics of a classic bubble, noting that "all great technology changes produce bubbles" because it is difficult to price the technology accurately. He has advised investors to focus on diversification, suggesting that 15 good uncorrelated bets can reduce risk by up to 80% without reducing returns. Dalio has also commented on geopolitical dynamics, saying that the war in Iran is changing the use of the U.S. dollar and that leaders in Asia have told him it is "clear that the United States cannot fight a war" due to domestic pressures. He has described a shift in which countries in Asia are recalibrating toward China, which he said sees itself entering a new era of influence rooted in its historical "tribute system." Dalio has recommended that investors hold gold and maintain liquidity, and he has drawn parallels between current conditions and the 1929 financial collapse, stating that the structural conditions for a similar crisis are in place.