Joe Box on business strategy

About Joe Box

At the Gabelli 11th Annual Waste & Environmental Services Symposium on May 17, 2025, Joe Box, Vice President of Investor Relations at Waste Connections, discussed the company's operational strategy and financial outlook. Box stated that Waste Connections is differentiated by a market-based approach, with about 40% of its business in franchise or exclusive markets under long-term contracts and the remainder in secondary and rural markets. He said the company expects 50 to 80 basis points of margin expansion in 2025, which he described as effectively 100 basis points after accounting for commodity and foreign exchange headwinds, following 100 basis points of expansion in the prior year. Box noted that voluntary turnover, which he called the single most important metric for assessing location health, had declined from 25% in 2022 to about 12%, potentially contributing up to 100 basis points of margin benefit. Box also addressed several external factors. He described tariffs as "relatively minimal" for Waste Connections, estimating the risk at $10 to $15 million on a $1 billion capital expenditure base. He said the M&A pipeline remains "extremely attractive," with $4.5 to $5 billion of private companies fitting the company's criteria, and that he expects another outsized year of deal activity in 2025. On recycling, Box stated that fiber, particularly old corrugated cardboard, makes up two-thirds of the recycling basket, with prices declining from about $145 per ton in the second quarter to $100 per ton by year-end due to factors including port strikes and tariff threats. He added that the company has incorporated about 4.5% cost inflation into its full-year outlook, which he said is moderating relative to recent years.

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