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Adriana Kugler

Former Governor, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Search every verified Adriana Kugler interview, podcast appearance, and on-the-record quote — each transcript cross-checked by AI and human review to confirm speaker identity. In a May 2025 appearance at the 2024 SIEPR Economic Summit, Adriana Kugler discussed the economic effects of immigration and tariffs. She stated that immigration between 2022 and 2024 had positive effects on productivity and labor supply, helping to offset pandemic-era worker losses. Kugler noted that inflows have stalled and outflows have increased, particularly among undocumented foreign nationals, and said net flows are likely to decline further. She declined to comment on immigration policy, stating that her role is to assess how such changes affect the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. Kugler said tighter labor supply could make labor markets tighter again, though she had not yet observed wage effects as of the appearance. She predicted that by the end of the year, wage effects might appear in sectors where immigrant workers are overrepresented, such as construction, agriculture, and hospitality. She also noted that many immigrant workers who arrived between 2022 and 2024 have not yet fully integrated into the labor market, suggesting some continued labor supply impetus.

Recent appearances

Verified interview transcripts

Notable quotes

“Among surveys looking one year ahead, there have been notable increases in inflation expectations, with both consumers and businesses reporting new and proposed tariffs as an important reason. So, the word of the day: tariffs.”

“I strongly supported the Fed's decision at our March meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. I will support maintaining the current policy rate for as long as these upside risks to inflation continue while economic activity and employment remain stable.”

“If the central bank is credible about its long‑run inflation target, long‑run inflation expectations will tend to be closer to the target; anchoring inflation expectations is one of the key elements leading to stable inflation.”

“An independent central bank is one that can carry out monetary policy insulated from pressures arising from other parts of government.”

“Central Bank Independence is fundamental to achieving good policy and good economic outcomes; it is not sufficient by itself but it is almost always necessary.”

“If any risks arise—that is, stalled or re‑accelerating inflation—it would be appropriate to pause our policy rate cuts; but if the labor market slows down suddenly it would be appropriate to continue gradually cutting the policy rate.”

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