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Spencer Dale

Group Chief Economist, British Petroleum

Search every verified Spencer Dale interview, podcast appearance, and on-the-record quote — each transcript cross-checked by AI and human review to confirm speaker identity. In an April 2026 appearance on the podcast *Global Rewire*, Spencer Dale discussed the state of global oil markets, noting that Brent crude had traded above $100 per barrel for 21 non-consecutive days. He expressed concern that the price signal from Brent futures contracts may not fully reflect the tightness of physical oil markets, stating, "I worry that the price signal that most people are looking at in terms of those futures contracts is not actually revealing just how tight the markets are at the moment." Dale also remarked that global stock market declines of only two to three percent seemed "very hard to explain" given the severity of the oil price shock and the risk it could worsen. Dale proposed several policy ideas to address oil price volatility, including a sliding-scale tax on oil production tied to a benchmark price, the use of strategic petroleum reserves to buy and sell oil to dampen price swings, and the creation of capacity markets for oil. On monetary policy, he described himself as a "small number guy" and a "point target guy," expressing a preference for a specific inflation target over a range, while noting he does not favor a zero percent target due to wage rigidities.

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Notable quotes

“I think the best inflation rate is zero if you can get there, but I don't like zero because of those downward rigidities. So I end up with a number like two or something similar to that. I'm a simple heuristic guy. The real value of that inflation target is acting as a heuristic for households and a heuristic for businesses. What do I think in future inflation is going to be? It's gonna be 2%. It's gonna be 2%. It's ”

“The US is a net oil exporter, so overall as an economy, the US is better off as a result of oil prices being higher than being lower because there's a net oil exporter. But the problem is there's no mechanism for that to happen in the US. Although overall revenues may be higher and profits may be higher, 90% or 95% of Americans are paying higher for their gasoline at the pump. And a few companies are benefiting, but ”

“If we are moving to a world of greater volatility in wholesale prices, I think we may well start seeing long-term contracts for energy as well as for mortgages. We can actually buy your energy on a 5-year type contract akin to how we do fixed-term mortgages. Many households in the US have long-term fixed-rate mortgages which insulates them from the interest rate cycle. If we are moving to a world of greater volatilit”

“We need to move to a world where we can actually use strategic petroleum reserves not just for emergency release but to dampen volatility. You could actually sell oil when prices are high and buy oil when prices are low. I also think we may start to move to incentivize capacity markets for oil markets, similar to how we have capacity markets for electricity, to keep physical assets like refineries online that would o”

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