Justin Mankin

Professor of Geography; Director, Climate Modeling & Impacts Group, Dartmouth College

Search every verified Justin Mankin interview, podcast appearance, and on-the-record quote — each transcript cross-checked by AI and human review to confirm speaker identity. Justin Mankin, a professor of geography at Dartmouth and director of the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group, discussed the potential economic consequences of an emerging El Niño on the Odd Lots podcast. He estimated that the forthcoming event could cause around $10 trillion in global economic losses over the next five years, with a possible upper range of $14 trillion, though he noted that only about $10 trillion of that figure is supported by existing data. Mankin attributed the scale of losses not only to the El Niño's intensity but also to the larger size of the global economy, which leaves more assets exposed to impacts. Mankin also referenced past research indicating that El Niño events can lead to a systematic depression of economic growth, citing a five-year period following a prior event that resulted in approximately $5.7 trillion in global losses. He observed that impacts from the current El Niño are already manifesting, such as a delayed South Asian monsoon, and stated that effects would likely continue into 2027, even as the event's peak strength is anticipated in the winter.