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Dan Clifton

Partner & Head of Policy Research, Baird Strategas

Search every verified Dan Clifton interview, podcast appearance, and on-the-record quote — each transcript cross-checked by AI and human review to confirm speaker identity. Dan Clifton, partner and head of policy research at Baird Strategas, has recently appeared on CNBC's "The Exchange" and the "Real Eisman Playbook" podcast to discuss the 2026 midterm elections, tariffs, and Federal Reserve policy. On the podcast, he discussed the midterm landscape and the 2028 presidential race, and argued that Kevin Warsh's focus at the Fed is on shrinking its balance sheet rather than cutting rates. He also stated that tariffs have shifted from a market headwind to a tailwind. On CNBC, he said he expects an affordable housing bill to become law, and discussed the odds of the Save America Act passing, noting limited options for the president on that legislation. In earlier appearances, Clifton commented on the economic impact of tariffs and fiscal policy. In May 2025, he said the trade impact from tariffs would need to be offset by tax cuts, and in April 2025 he expressed concern about tariffs slowing the economy. He also discussed the Senate passing a budget bill and the potential use of tariff revenue for tax cuts. In February 2026, he said that policy benefits from the Trump administration would start to emerge in 2026, citing tax refunds and capital expensing.

Recent appearances

Verified interview transcripts

Notable quotes

“We've moved 75 basis points on the Fed funds rate expectations from 50 basis points to cut to 25 basis point increase, and stocks have just shrugged that off. Okay? And the reason is that the economy is way stronger than people anticipated. Like we don't even need the cuts right now. Okay? Now, as you start getting deeper into rate increases, that's going to cause some anxiety in financial markets. But this has been ”

“I think it all goes back to that first podcast. April 3rd was the actual date. Like so Trump did his tariffs at 4:00 in the afternoon and we did your podcast at 9:00 in the morning the next day and stocks were way down. I mean it was a disaster and that was a very important moment for shaping the midterm elections because that was the moment that Donald Trump's approval rating on the economy went negative for the ver”

“The first year of a presidency is very different than a second year of a presidency. The president is going to be far more populist starting in two weeks from now when he goes to Davos in Switzerland and outlines an extremely populist agenda on electricity rates and health care and housing. So you're going to have to get used to that. You're already starting to see it. He's talking about banning institutional ownersh”

“There's two major levers on tax cuts. Number one is the consumer tax cuts. So, in 2025, consumers got tax cuts for a higher state and local tax deduction, an increase in the child tax credit, lower taxes on tips, overtime, senior citizen income. And when you add all that together, it's about $170 billion of gross additional tax refunds. And there's some offsets to that. You're going to get a higher tax liability from”

“The tax bill that is being proposed is by far anything that we've seen over the last 50 years. And so what happens is, you know, people will say, 'Hey Dan, we raised tax in 1993 and everything was okay.' Or, 'We raised taxes in 2013, everything was okay.' And I say, 'Not all taxes are created equal.' One, the size of this is much larger. The original Biden proposal was about 1 and a half percent of the gross domestic”

“What we're going through in the US right now is the single greatest period of political volatility we've had since we've come out of the civil war over 150, 160 years ago. What we have found is that you've had eight federal elections since the financial crisis and the voters of this country have removed the party in power in seven of those eight elections. And so we've had all Republican, we've had all Democrat, we'v”

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