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Michael Green

Chief Strategist & Portfolio Manager, Simplify Asset Management

Search every verified Michael Green interview, podcast appearance, and on-the-record quote — each transcript cross-checked by AI and human review to confirm speaker identity. Michael Green, CEO and CIO of Tier1 Alpha Asset Management, has recently argued that traditional assumptions about stock market pricing are being undermined by the structure of passive investing and leveraged ETFs. In an October 2026 interview, he stated that vehicles like triple-levered sector ETFs are not truly passive but represent discretionary sectoral bets that create pro-cyclical feedback loops and distort volatility, citing the example that a 3x leveraged ETF on an asset with 60% implied volatility requires over 100% annual underlying gains just to break even. He also claimed that passive flows account for more than 100% of net stock market price improvement, with smaller stocks that receive less passive attention not seeing the same gains as larger stocks. Green has also commented on broader market conditions, describing the disconnect between record-high equity indices and economic strain as evidence of a "K-shaped" economy, and expressed concern about the potential for an authoritarian outcome. He characterized the bond market sell-off as a buying opportunity, while noting that the scale of a mechanical selloff is unpredictable, and criticized central bank rate hikes as unlikely to address inflation driven by Middle East conflict. He attributed part of the problem to the Federal Reserve relying on market pricing signals that he believes are distorted by passive flows and improperly constructed indices.

Recent appearances

  • How Levered ETFs Are Distorting Stock Market Volatility

    October 12, 2026 · 📺 Raise Your Average.

    What if the single greatest risk in today’s markets isn’t a recession or a rate shock — but the very structure of passive investing itself? Hosts AdvisorAnalyst.com's Pierre Daillie and Adam Butler, CIO of ReSolve Asset Management, chat with Michael Green, Founder & CIO, Tier 1 Alpha (previously Chief Market Strategist, at Simplify Asset Management) to make a sobering case: we have entered the end stages of the passive investing phenomenon. From the cold logic of pod shops where fundamentals no longer matter, to levered sector ETFs injecting a hidden procyclical feedback loop into markets, M…

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  • Something Is Very Wrong With the Stock Market | Michael Green

    October 08, 2026 · 📺 Pinnacle Digest

    Michael Green believes the stock market no longer works the way most investors think it does. America is more than $40 trillion in debt. Long-term bond yields are surging. Millions of households are struggling to maintain their standard of living. Yet the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain near record highs, creating enormous wealth for investors even as much of the underlying economy shows signs of strain. Green believes there's a largely overlooked force helping explain this disconnect, one that's fundamentally changing how stocks are priced and potentially distorting the signals investors and polic…

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  • Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying Opportunity

    September 29, 2026 · 📺 Prof G Markets

    Ed Elson is joined by Michael Green to discuss what the bond market is telling us as yields march ever higher. Then, Gil Luria returns to break down what Nvidia’s record stock buyback means for investors and what he makes of the company’s valuation. Finally, Ed gives his take on the next phase of the AI safety debate. Michael Green is the CEO and CIO of Tier1 Alpha Asset Management. Gil Luria is the Head of Technology Research at D.A. Davidson. Timestamps 00:00 - Intro 00:47 - Market Vitals 01:21 - Bond Selloff Continues (ft. Michael Green) 16:18 - Ad Break 18:02 - Nvidia Stock Buybacks (ft…

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  • Mike Green's New Adventure

    August 06, 2026 · 📺 Benny & The Squirrel

    ⚠️ Audio Quality Warning & Apology ⚠️ We want to sincerely apologize for the audio issues on our end during this episode. However, we decided to publish this because Mike Green's audio is perfectly clear, and since he is delivering the vast majority of the insights and doing most of the talking, we didn't want you to miss out on this incredible conversation. In Episode 75 of ‪@Benny_Squirrel‬ we welcome back Mike Green as he makes a massive announcement: his resignation from Simplify to launch Tier One Alpha Asset Management. Mike breaks down his groundbreaking new "Passive Aware" investmen…

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  • America Has A Big Passive Investing Problem | Mike Green

    August 05, 2026 · 📺 Monetary Metals & Co.

    Get the 2026 Gold Outlook Report: https://buff.ly/gnyStVJ.

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  • Aschenbrenner’s AI Fund Collapse Is Just The Beginning

    August 04, 2026 · 📺 Prof G Markets

    Ed Elson is joined by Michael Green to discuss the role that leverage played in the turmoil with Leopold Aschenbrenner’s fund, Situational Awareness, and how leveraged-ETFs are impacting the semiconductor industry. Then, Katie Martin returns to break down why the U.S. intervened to help Japan with the yen and whether the U.S. is actually in a position to prop up the currency. Finally, Ed gives his take on Trump’s decision to sell early access to his social media posts. Michael Green is the Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management and author of the Yes I give a fig…

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  • Michael Green: Is the Biggest Investing Solution Becoming the Market's Biggest Problem?

    July 31, 2026 · 📺 Raise Your Average. and AdvisorAnalyst

    If markets no longer price value, then what's actually setting the price? Raise Your Average hosts Pierre Daillie and Adam Butler sit down with Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management, for a deep dive into the passive investing thesis he has spent over a decade researching, defending, and stress testing. Green argues that trillions of dollars flowing automatically into index funds via 401(k)s, RSPs, and defined contribution plans have created a market where price no longer reflects judgment about value. He walks through the mechanics of the "inelast…

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  • Stock Market Leverage Higher than at Any Time in History | Michael Green

    July 24, 2026 · 📺 WTFinance

    Interview recorded - 21st of July, 2026 On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back Mike Green. Mike Green is Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management, and one of the most influential voices on market structure in finance today. During our conversation we spoke about the current situation in markets, the ever increasing leverage through ETF's, what this means for market structure, geopolitical impact and more. I hope you enjoy! 0:00 - Introduction 1:14 - Overview of the economy and markets? 9:02 - Leverage in market 12:26 - Hypers…

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  • Passive flows 'may be distorting' markets: Green

    July 21, 2026 · 📺 BNN Bloomberg

    Michael Green, chief investment strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the outlook for the markets amid uncertainty. +++ Subscribe to BNN Bloomberg to watch more videos:    / bnnbloomberg   Connect with BNN Bloomberg: For the latest news visit: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca For a full video offering visit BNN Bloomberg: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video BNN Bloomberg on Twitter:   / bnnbloomberg   BNN Bloomberg on LinkedIn:   / bnn-bloomberg   -- BNN Bloomberg is Canada’s only TV service devoted exclusively to business, finance and the markets. #BNNBloomber…

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  • It’s Worse Than a “Lost Decade” — 1987-Style Crash Almost Inevitable? | Michael Green

    July 09, 2026 · 📺 Wealth Building Blueprint – Vladyslav Grabarskyy

    Macro expert Michael Green drops a massive market warning in this exclusive interview. We pull back the curtain on whether a big stock market crash is inevitable, how passive investing flows drive markets higher by design, and if the current system has turned into a giant pyramid scheme. We also dive deep into why the global economy is too dependent on U.S. stocks, the reality of a looming lost decade (or worse), how new AI models are sabotaging progress, and why gold, bonds, and precious metals may offer critical asymmetric opportunities in today's environment. Follow Mike on X: https://x.co…

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  • Mike Green: AI is fueling another 1987 market CRASH!

    July 08, 2026 · 📺 Phil Rosen

    Michael Green is the chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, and authors the Substack called "Yes I give a Fig." He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss hidden risks of the AI boom, how passive investing is bidding up the AI bubble, why he's bullish on new technology but cautious on its impact for investors, and more. Subscribe to Opening Bell Daily: https://www.openingbelldailynews.com/... Follow Phil on X: https://x.com/philrosenn Follow Phil on LinkedIn:   / philrosen   TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Caution on AI bull market 2:57 - AI's real value 5:38 - Nvidia's…

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  • SpaceX Just Got Fast-Tracked Into Your Portfolio

    July 07, 2026 · 📺 Prof G Markets

    Ed Elson is joined by Michael Green to break down the impact of SpaceX’s early entry into the Nasdaq 100 and what it means for the future of passive investing. Then, Kathryn Anne Edwards joins the show to break down the June jobs report and why she thinks wage growth is the most important thing to focus on. Finally, Ed gives his take on the latest evidence of Trump’s kingmaker economy. Michael Green is the Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management. Kathryn Anne Edwards is a PhD economist, economic policy consultant, and columnist for Bloomberg News. Timestamps 00:…

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Verified interview transcripts

Notable quotes

“I am not worried about the debt. I'm worried about the implications of how we react to the information that we're receiving on the debt. So, by hiking interest rates, we're raising the cost of financing those same small businesses that we were talking about before. And we're dramatically raising the cost of financing households through things like mortgages and auto loans, which are really the primary sources of fina”

“The quick answer is I think the passive flows account for more than 100% of the price improvement that we're now seeing in markets. I actually think that most of the evidence is in the absence of this type of directed flow, we're seeing on net stock markets decline. In the areas of the markets where we see less impact from passive, for example, the smaller stocks or the smaller stocks in the S&P, they aren't experien”

“Unfortunately, it's directly tied to the Federal Reserve not understanding what it is actually doing in a market that is dominated by these passive flows. Fed Chairman Warsh has very specifically said he is looking to the market for pricing signals and for information. Unfortunately, that leaves him completely exposed to the market not pricing fundamental information and instead reflecting the manner in which we choo”

“I do think it's a buying opportunity, but I think it's important to recognize that a buying opportunity in the process of a mechanical selloff, you can't know where this is going to stop. And so this can go quite a bit further if we continue to maintain our investment strategies in this manner. And if the central bankers don't wake up and recognize that hiking interest rates in no way will address fears of inflation ”

“Ultimately what derails it is reversal of flows and it doesn't have to be of large magnitude. Right? Remember everything is set at the margin which is again one of the points that I'm emphasizing in the piece made in Japan. It's markets are determined at the margin. Right? You and Ben could own as much Microsoft as you want, but if you are not participating in the next day's trading and I come in and find an opportun”

“We've identified ways to utilize the information associated with passive flows and a unique framework where we're isolating to every individual stock that's positioned us to really start building implementable products and we'll be making our first announcements on that in the next week or so. When I started doing this work over a decade ago, it very quickly translated into an exceptionally profitable trade. And it's”

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