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Karim Sadjadpour

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Search every verified Karim Sadjadpour interview, podcast appearance, and on-the-record quote — each transcript cross-checked by AI and human review to confirm speaker identity. Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has been a frequent commentator on U.S.-Iran relations and the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. In mid-2026, he described the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran as a "memorandum of misunderstanding," noting that the two sides appeared to have very different interpretations of the agreement. He estimated the probability that the conflict was permanently resolved at less than 20 percent, citing unresolved issues such as Iran's nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Sadjadpour also argued that the war had been a strategic defeat for President Trump, saying that none of the objectives Trump laid out at the war's outset had been achieved. Earlier in 2026, during widespread protests in Iran, Sadjadpour said the regime had killed thousands of protesters and that the uprising was a patriotic, nationalistic movement seeking to prioritize Iran's interests over revolutionary ideology. He predicted that if a strongman were to rule Iran five years later, it would not be a cleric, but rather someone from the intelligence or security services. He also stated that the Islamic Republic had at most 15 percent popular support, but that this organized and armed minority could prevail over the unarmed and leaderless majority. Throughout his appearances, Sadjadpour has characterized Iran's regime as strategically isolated and reliant on Russia and China, while describing the Iranian population as among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

Recent appearances

  • Aspen Security Forum | Let’s Get This Strait: The Future of Iran

    July 16, 2026 · 📺 The Aspen Institute

    At the 2026 Aspen Security Forum, Senator Chris Murphy, Robert Greenway, Roxana Saberi, and Karim Sadjadpour join Jim Sciutto to discuss U.S. military objectives in Iran, the future of negotiations, the impact of the conflict on the American and Iranian people, and more. Speakers: Chris Murphy, U.S. Senator for Connecticut, U.S. Senate Robert Greenway, Former Director, Allison Center for National Security, The Heritage Foundation; Senior Vice President, American Global Strategies Roxana Saberi, Journalist and Author Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Mo…

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  • The U.S-Israel War with Iran: Is There a Way Out?

    June 17, 2026 · 📺 Carnegie Endowment

    More than 100 days into the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, both sides remain trapped between the ever-present danger of serious escalation and an elusive negotiated, pathway out of the conflict. As negotiations stall, Iran and the U.S. are still struggling over core issues while Lebanon and the straits have emerged as significant triggers for escalation. What are the major obstacles standing in way of a U.S.-Iran agreement? Are U.S. objectives aligned with Israel? And what are the prospects for turning a short-term deal into a durable agreement?    Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Brooki…

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  • The Iran “Deal” Isn’t What It Seems

    June 16, 2026 · 📺 Prof G Markets

    Ed Elson is joined by Karim Sadjadpour to discuss the new agreement between the U.S. and Iran and whether or not this war is permanently resolved. Then, Reed Albergotti joins the show to unpack why the White House put export restrictions on Anthropic’s Mythos models. Finally, Ed explains why he is cautiously optimistic for a real end to the war with Iran. Karim Sadjadpour is a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Reed Albergotti is a Tech Editor at Semafor. Timestamps 00:00 - Intro 00:37 - Market Vitals 01:18 - Iran Update (ft. Karim Sadjadpour) 15:46 - Ad Break…

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  • "No Objectives Achieved." Karim Sadjadpour on Trump's Failed War

    June 16, 2026 · 📺 The Free Press

    “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all!” So wrote President Donald Trump on Truth Social on Sunday. After weeks of back-and-forth, the announcement seemed to herald the end to a bloody conflict that has lasted more than 100 days. In the following hours, the public learned that the U.S. had reached a memorandum of understanding with Iran—reportedly, a one-to-two-page document seeking to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with nuclear negotiations to follow. But as the details of the agreement emerge, many are asking:…

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  • Jamil Jaffer - CNN with Brianna Keilar and Karim Sadjadpour - Iran - 5.7.2026

    May 11, 2026 · 📺 National Security Institute

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  • Is the U.S. About to Go to War With Iran? | Prof G Conversations

    February 26, 2026 · 📺 The Prof G Pod – Scott Galloway

    Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Scott Galloway to break down escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. They discuss whether military action is imminent, what a strike would actually accomplish, and whether the Islamic Republic could survive sustained U.S. pressure. Karim explains why this moment may be the regime’s weakest point in decades — but also why regime change rarely unfolds the way outsiders expect. Timestamps 00:00 - In This Episode 00:57 - What’s the state of play in Iran right now? 02:25 - Is there still a chance of a…

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  • The Carnegie Endowment's Karim Sadjadpour on skyrocketing tensions in and around Iran

    January 29, 2026 · 📺 Hugh Hewitt

    Join Hugh LIVE: Weekdays, 3-6PM ET. Visit Hugh's website: https://hughhewitt.com Follow Hugh on Twitter:   / hughhewitt   The Hugh Hewitt Show on Facebook:   / hughhewittshow   Subscribe to The Hugh Hewitt Show's podcast here: Apple Podcasts: http://bit.ly/HHShowApple Google Podcasts: http://bit.ly/HHShowGoogle Spotify: http://bit.ly/HHShowSpotify Check out the Hughniverse for a commercial-free archive of The Hugh Hewitt Radio Show and The Aftershow with Duane "Generalissimo" Patterson anytime you want: https://www.hughniverse.com

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  • Is the US Set to Strike Iran?

    January 27, 2026 · 📺 Bloomberg Television

    Karim Sadjadpour, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow, discusses whether or not the US may strike Iran as the United States' naval carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East. He also talks about the status of Iran's nuclear program and his reaction to Trump's "Board of Peace." Karim speaks with Joe Mathieu on the late edition of Bloomberg's "Balance of Power." -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from Bloomberg Markets & Finance: https://tinyurl.com/ysu5b8a9 Visit…

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  • Is Iran Reaching a Tipping Point?

    January 21, 2026 · 📺 Carnegie Endowment

    Protests in Iran have now engulfed its major cities and all 31 provinces, creating a mass movement incorporating all elements of Iranian society, despite a comprehensive internet blackout. The regime, blaming the United States and Israel for the sweeping movement, is casting the protests as a continuation of its twelve-day war with Israel and is cracking down hard, with the death toll rising. The Institute for the Study of War has reported that more Iranian security forces have been killed than in any previous periods of unrest. Now, President Donald Trump is vowing U.S. intervention in suppo…

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  • Karim Sadjadpour: What Kind of Change Is Coming to Iran? | Foreign Affairs Interview

    January 13, 2026 · 📺 Foreign Affairs

    At the end of December, protests erupted across Iran. The government has since cracked down hard with potentially thousands of Iranians killed. It now seems possible that the United States might intervene. Via social media, U.S. President Donald Trump has told Iranian protesters that “help is on the way.” We do not know yet what, if anything, Washington will do. But the repressive regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is being pushed to the brink after punishing years of war and sanctions.  Few observers of Iranian politics have thought more deeply about the regime and its future than Karim Sadjad…

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  • If Tehran Falls, What then? - with Karim Sadjadpour

    January 12, 2026 · 📺 Call me Back Podcast - with Dan Senor

    Subscribe to Inside Call me Back https://inside.arkmedia.org Gift a subscription of Inside Call me Back: https://inside.arkmedia.org/gifts Read Karim's piece in Foreign Affairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/a... Subscribe to Nadav Eyal’s Substack: https://nadave.substack.com/ Subscribe to Amit Segal’s newsletter ‘It’s Noon in Israel’: https://arkmedia.org/amitsegal/ Watch Call me Back on YouTube:    / @callmebackpodcast   For sponsorship inquiries, please contact: [email protected] To contact us, sign up for updates, and access transcripts, visit: https://arkmedia.org/…

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  • After Venezuela, is Iran Next? - with Karim Sadjadpour

    January 05, 2026 · 📺 Call me Back Podcast - with Dan Senor

    Subscribe to Inside Call me Back https://inside.arkmedia.org Gift a subscription of Inside Call me Back: https://inside.arkmedia.org/gifts Subscribe to Nadav Eyal’s Substack: https://nadave.substack.com/ Subscribe to Amit Segal’s newsletter ‘It’s Noon in Israel’: https://arkmedia.org/amitsegal/ Watch Call me Back on YouTube:    / @callmebackpodcast   Check out Ark Media’s other podcasts: For Heaven's Sake: https://lnk.to/rfGlrA ‘What’s Your Number?’: https://lnk.to/rfGlrA For sponsorship inquiries, please contact: [email protected] To contact us, sign up for updates, and acce…

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Verified interview transcripts

Notable quotes

“One of the advantages that dictatorships have over democracies is that they can play the long game. They have contempt for public opinion. And just like Vladimir Putin waiting out administrations, the Islamic Republic has done that before. Let me just say a brief word about policy prescriptions and start first with a diagnosis of the challenge because I think given that there has been no US embassy in Tehran since 19”

“So let me first start with the premise that it's my view that we will never really see lasting stability in the Middle East until you have a government in Tehran which reflects the national interest of Iran. Puts the economic and security interest of the Iranian people before the revolutionary ideology of 1979. And I don't think that this war advanced that outcome. It's a regime which as Rob was saying it is militari”

“I thought Suzanne put it really well. The only thing I'll add, Aaron, is I was thinking this morning about perhaps the last time we had this scale of a debacle. You could say it was perhaps the 2003 Iraq war. And when I was comparing the two in my head, you could argue that the 2003 Iraq war was prosecuted by perhaps one of the most experienced US national security teams in modern history. And this was among the leas”

“What Iranian officials say privately is really meaningless. It's what they say publicly which matters. And we haven't seen any public statements from any even third-tier Iranian officials saying that we want to change the way we've been doing business the last 47 years. We want to have a good relationship with the United States. We're prepared to think about ceasing our support for our regional proxies. They've never”

“I think overall winner in the immediate term in my view is Vladimir Putin and Russia because he's received a massive cash windfall the last several months and even though he's not doing that well in Ukraine, at least American attention has been diverted from Ukraine. In my view this has been a strategic defeat for President Trump certainly in the immediate term in that if you look at the objectives he laid out on Feb”

“So, in my view, the probability that this is resolved permanently, I'd put it at less than 20%. If we look at the probability of a return to conflict, there's a couple there's a few triggers at least. One is that in negotiating phase two of this deal, which is to get Iran's highly enriched uranium um out of the country and to get Iran to cease its enrichment of uranium. Two big priorities for President Trump that the”

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