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Paul Kedrosky

Managing Partner, SK Ventures

Search every verified Paul Kedrosky interview, podcast appearance, and on-the-record quote — each transcript cross-checked by AI and human review to confirm speaker identity. Paul Kedrosky, managing partner at SK Ventures and a research fellow at MIT's Initiative on the Digital Economy, has recently appeared on multiple podcasts and programs to discuss the sustainability of the AI investment boom. He has argued that a significant portion of recent U.S. GDP growth, which he estimated at 30 to 70 percent depending on the quarter, has been driven by AI capital expenditures. Kedrosky has also stated that more than 60 percent of this spending is financed through external sources rather than free cash flow, and he has pointed to a maturity wall of debt around 2029 as a potential source of stress. He has described the current cycle as sitting at the intersection of four forces historically associated with major bubbles: a compelling technology story, real estate speculation in data centers, loose credit, and a U.S.–China competitive dynamic. Kedrosky has also commented on specific companies and market events. Regarding Anthropic's S-1 filing, he said the company's reliance on leasing compute from competitors indicated future capital expenditure increases and that the income statement was not representative of the future business. He called the potential valuation of Anthropic at $2 trillion a "ridiculous price," suggesting that a late-stage IPO at such levels would primarily allow insiders to unload shares. On CoreWeave's debt situation, he said the company was among the most indebted of the neoclouds and that its debt would likely require restructuring. Kedrosky also mentioned forming a nonprofit called the Seiosis Institute, which has developed a due diligence questionnaire for general partners to test AI-related productivity claims against service quality and control outcomes.

Recent appearances

  • Paul Kedrosky - AI Risk and Institutional Portfolios

    October 30, 2026 · 📺 TIM TALKS: Symaiosis

    AI may be one of the most important technological developments of our time, but that doesn't mean every investment in it is a good one. With enormous amounts of money flowing into AI companies, data centers, and supporting infrastructure, there are some serious questions about how sustainable all this spending is and what happens if expectations don't pan out. Joining me today is Paul Kedrosky, managing partner at early-stage venture fund SK Ventures and a research fellow at MIT's Initiative on the Digital Economy. Paul began his career as an engineer before moving into technology equity res…

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  • The $800 Billion Catch Behind Anthropic's IPO

    October 27, 2026 · 📺 Prof G Markets

    Ed Elson is joined by Paul Kedrosky to unpack Anthropic’s S-1, including the red flags in the filing and what investors might be overlooking. Then, Robert Armstrong returns to break down why he thinks winter is coming for the stock market and what could trigger a correction. Paul Kedrosky is a Managing Partner at SK Ventures. Robert Armstrong is the US financial commentator for the Financial Times, and author of the Unhedged newsletter. Timestamps 00:00 - Intro 00:56 - Market Vitals 01:47 - Anthropic S-1 (ft. Paul Kedrosky) 18:18 - Ad Break 19:35 - Is Winter Coming for Markets? (ft. Robert…

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  • The Most Dangerous Investment Cycle In History | Paul Kedrosky

    October 26, 2026 · 📺 Hidden Forces

    In Episode 505 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with venture capitalist, former Wall Street equity research analyst, and independent market and technology researcher Paul Kedrosky about why the AI investment boom is unlike any previous Capex cycle, how loose credit, data center real estate, competing AI utopian and collapse narratives, and a US-China technological arms race converge to make this moment more consequential and more dangerous than the dot-com bubble, the telecom buildout, or the railroads, and why the US economy may be headed toward a prolonged, Japan-style balance sheet…

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  • AI Cloud Stocks Are In Free-Fall — This Investor Isn’t Surprised

    October 15, 2026 · 📺 Prof G Markets

    Ed Elson is joined by Paul Kedrosky to break down CoreWeave’s debt crisis and whether it signals a broader problem for the industry. Then, Mark Zandi returns to unpack the latest inflation reading from the Consumer Price Index and what recent consumer spending data reveals about the state of the economy. Finally, Ed shares his take on a report that CFTC investigators were ordered to halt their analysis of potential insider trading involving the President. Paul Kedrosky is a Managing Partner at SK Ventures. Mark Zandi is the Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics. Timestamps 00:00 - Intro 00:25…

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  • Paul Kedrosky: Partner at SK Ventures & MIT Fellow on Debt, Data Centers & What Breaks First

    October 01, 2026 · 📺 Capital Thesis Podcast

    Paul Kedrosky, Partner at SK Ventures and MIT Fellow, joins Capital Thesis for a conversation on the AI investment boom, data centers, debt, the U.S.–China race, and what could ultimately break the current cycle. Paul is a longtime technology investor and entrepreneur, a Partner at SK Ventures, an MIT Fellow, and co-host of The Dick and Paul Show. His work focuses on the intersection of technology, capital markets, infrastructure, and economic systems. In this conversation, Paul explains why he believes the current AI cycle is unusually fragile, sitting at the intersection of technology, rea…

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  • Anthropic’s Financials Revealed — The Losses Are Stunning

    September 30, 2026 · 📺 Prof G Markets

    Ed Elson is joined by Paul Kedrosky to break down the biggest takeaways from Anthropic’s S-1. Then, Jay Ritter joins the show to discuss why Oura delayed its IPO and what the decision says about the broader IPO market. Finally, Ed shares his take on the news that Manchester City was found guilty of financial violations. Paul Kedrosky is the Managing Partner at SK Ventures. Jay Ritter is the Director of The IPO Initiative at the University of Florida. Check out Networth & Chill at    / @yourrichbff   Timestamps 00:00 - Intro 00:43 - Market Vitals 01:22 - Anthropic S-1 Leak (ft. Paul Kedrosky…

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  • The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul Kedrosky | Better Offline

    September 24, 2026 · 📺 Better Offline

    🛎 If You're New Subscribe ►    / @betterofflinepod   The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul Kedrosky | Better Offline In this week’s Better Offline, Ed Zitron is joined by economist Paul Kedrosky to talk about how AI is distorting the bond markets to the point that it’s changing the price on US Treasuries, how AI data center economics don’t make sense, and the troubling signs he’s hearing out of Anthropic. https://paulkedrosky.com/ The Nick, Dick and Paul Show:    / @nickdickpaul   Save $10 off a year of my premium newsletter: https://edzitronswheresyouredatghosti... YOU CAN…

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  • The AI Bubble Has a Due Date. It's 2029: Paul Kedrosky

    September 22, 2026 · 📺 Between Two COO's Podcast - Michael Koenig

    Paul Kedrosky of SK Ventures on the AI bubble, the borrowed money behind it, and the 2029 debt wall every operator should have on the calendar. Depending on the quarter, 30 to 70 percent of US GDP growth is coming from AI capex. A year ago the hyperscalers paid for it out of cash flow. Now more than 60 percent is external financing, and much of that debt matures around 2029. Kedrosky, a former Wall Street analyst and a fellow at MIT’s Initiative on the Digital Economy, walks through the money map, why AI tokens are a deflationary commodity, why circular financing makes real demand impossible…

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  • Nvidia Is Now the AI Bubble's Single Point of Failure | Paul Kedrosky

    September 04, 2026 · 📺 RiskReversal Media and The Dick Costolo & Paul Kedrosky Show

    Paul Kedrosky explains why Nvidia is now the AI bubble's single point of failure: the AI data-center buildout echoes the railroad and fiber overbuilds, but this time it's layered with loose credit, government-policy urgency, real-estate speculation, and circular financing. Go checkout The Dick & Paul Show on YouTube:    / @dickpaulshow   Dan Nathan interviews Paul Kedrosky about the AI-driven surge in non-residential fixed investment and why today’s data-center buildout resembles prior overbuild cycles like railroads and fiber. Kedrosky argues the current moment is unusually risky because it…

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  • The AI Boom Is Creating a Financial System We Haven't Seen Before (Paul Kedrosky Explains)

    August 28, 2026 · 📺 The Meb Faber Show

    Today’s guest is Paul Kedrosky, a fellow at the MIT Institute for the Digital Economy, partner at SK Ventures and former sell-side analyst. In today’s episode, Paul Kedrosky explains why AI sits at the intersection of every force behind the biggest bubbles. He walks through why tokens are the fastest-deflating commodity ever, why more than half the data center buildout runs on debt instead of cash flow, and why an IPO wave pressures the market’s biggest winners. To close, Paul argues AI already drives most US GDP growth, and revisits how badly humans misjudge scale. To see links or read the…

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  • Why The AI Bubble Will Burst: The Most Logical Case — With Paul Kedrosky

    August 12, 2026 · 📺 Alex Kantrowitz

    Paul Kedrosky is an investor, analyst, and writer who studies technology, markets, and the forces shaping the global economy. Kedrosky joins Big Technology Podcast to discuss why he believes the historic surge in AI infrastructure spending has created a bubble that could soon unravel. Tune in to hear why rapidly falling token prices, constant hardware upgrades, and increasingly debt-funded data centers may make it extraordinarily difficult for investors to earn adequate returns. We also cover whether OpenAI and Anthropic can move up the software stack, what might cause the investment cycle to…

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  • Why AI Has No ROI with Paul Kedrosky | Better Offline

    June 03, 2026 · 📺 Better Offline

    🛎 If You're New Subscribe ►    / @betterofflinepod   Why AI Has No ROI with Paul Kedrosky | Better Offline In this week’s Better Offline, Ed Zitron is joined by economist Paul Kedrosky to talk about why nobody can find the ROI of AI, why there won’t be a Dot Com Bubble-style recovery for AI data centers, and how Google’s $80bn equity sale shows we’re at the top. https://paulkedrosky.com/ The Nick, Dick and Paul Show:    / @nickdickpaul   Save $10 off a year of my premium newsletter: https://edzitronswheresyouredatghosti... - I’d be so grateful! YOU CAN NOW BUY BETTER OFFLINE MERCH! Go t…

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The summary and quote tags on this profile are produced with AI assistance from verified, first-person interview transcripts, then checked by our team to confirm the speaker's identity and the accuracy of every quote. See how we verify →