Coface Country Risk Symposium: Opening remarks by Xavier Durand, Managing Director

The 21st century will be that of risk management, or it will not be. I believe prevail. At 120 dollars a barrel, it is rich. Whatever the cost. You literally eat coal, gas, and oil. We are always looking for that energy. We are not going backwards, but rather at the end of an explosive. The explosive is here. Everything will be fine.

Good afternoon everyone. My name is Stéphane Pedrai. I am the host of the morning economics show on Radio Classique and I am truly honored to welcome you to this room for the 30th edition of the Coface country risk symposium. I also welcome all those joining remotely, and I know you are particularly numerous this year. Before I tell you about the afternoon program, let me propose a short visualization exercise. Imagine a game, an escape game with teams, alliances, strategies, and rules. I think you can see where this is going. A game where everyone tries to win, but it unfolds in relative cohesion. Then mid-game, one team decides to change the rules. It decides to change partners, modify alliances, but the game must continue because it cannot be stopped, and teams must reorganize and adapt, especially in terms of risk. You've understood, this game is the world as it is evolving before our eyes, and that is precisely the subject of this 2026 country risk symposium. Let me tell you about the program, but first I'd like to introduce Camille Taver. Hello Camille, you heard him when you arrived, a talented pianist, one of my colleagues at Radio Classique. Camille will add a little music to our discussions this afternoon, starting with a first message, I think. Camille, thank you for remembering to put your phones on silent. We won't ask you to turn them off; we know nobody does that anymore. The program for this afternoon: first, we will discuss geopolitics. Does Europe still have the means to make itself heard in this global disorder? How far will power rivalries between China, the US, and Russia go? That will be the theme of our first discussion. At 3:30 PM, I think he has the hardest role today. Jean-Christophe Café, Coface's chief economist, will present his forecasts for 2026. In the current context, it's obviously very complicated, but it was already complicated last year and I must admit he was quite accurate. So we hope it will be the same this year. At 4:45 PM, we will present the first results of a study on the impact of artificial intelligence on employment. You've all heard that some jobs are threatened. Apparently mine is particularly threatened. You might not see me next year. 900 occupations were scrutinized, confronted with four AI scenarios, and you will see that some preconceived ideas have been debunked. At 5:15 PM, we will discuss corporate bankruptcies. You are in France and you know that the figures were still spectacularly high last year. Jonathan Stetinberg will talk about the 2026 outlook for bankruptcies. Finally, an ambitious roundtable with three major CEOs: Estelle Brachlianov from Veolia, Xavier Williard from Vincy, and Jean-Dominique Sénard from Renault. They will discuss the risks they have identified and their strategies to adapt, accompanied by Sandra Stancier Sultan from McKinsey, who works with top business leaders daily and will provide an overall perspective. So the program is dense, but we will try to keep to schedule. To begin, please welcome our host for this afternoon, Xavier Durand, CEO of Coface.