David Cabero1:46
Thank you very much. It's a pleasure to be with you. Barcelona Tech City's work is very important for the city. I started in handball and now I'm in lighters, shavers, and pens – markets that are shrinking as people write less, shave less, and smoke less. In the last 10 years I've lived through five crises: Greece, southern Europe, Eastern Europe (Russia, Turkey), and now COVID. Each time I moved to a new post, a crisis followed. My specialty is managing crisis situations as a general manager. Crises force change. Economic cycles used to be predictable with a few variables, but now we have health crises and soon climate crises. In the next 20-30 years we'll face two or three more crises. Long-term results depend on luck and the quality of decisions. Luck is given, but we can improve decision quality. I'll share a framework: 40 days (survive), 4 months (revive), 4 years (thrive). For each time horizon, we consider people, sales, brand support, M&A, innovation, inventory, accounts receivable, competition, expenses, strategy, and leadership. People: first 40 days, support your people. At 4 months, identify core talent and skills. At 4 years, redesign the organization for the new normal. Sales: first 40 days, don't look at sales; they'll be down. At 4 months, focus on gaining market share. At 4 years, capture market share from competitors that fail. Brand support: first 40 days, stop all campaigns. At 4 months, invest in online, reinforce value message. At 4 years, adjust spending level and messaging. M&A: first 40 days, stop. At 4 months, explore opportunities; companies will be cheaper. At 4 years, buy in the first or second year of crisis, then wait. Innovation: first 40 days, pause. At 4 months, launch only real innovation, not incremental. At 4 years, reassess consumer needs. Inventory: first 40 days, prioritize key products. At 4 months, simplify product lines. At 4 years, extreme simplification linked to innovation. Accounts receivable: first 40 days, protect and prioritize. At 4 months, make provisions and control payment days. At 4 years, offer discounts for early payment. Competition: first 40 days, collaborate. At 4 months, model winners and losers. At 4 years, assess and adjust. Expenses: cut everything you can, but be careful not to cut core capabilities. Strategy and leadership are key: the leader must explain the 'why', inspire belief, and give example. Without followership, nothing works.