Good morning and welcome to Börsmorgon, where the last full trading week of the year looks set to open slightly upward. This after continued sell-offs in both American and Asian stock exchanges. In today's program we have a major focus on the automotive industry—what is the path forward for Europe? And of course a review of this week's stock pick, which is buy-worthy despite record levels. We also have a distinguished guest in the studio this Monday: Håkan Samuelsson, CEO of Volvo Cars—warm welcome. Welcome also to Agneta Jönsson, analyst at Dagens Industri.
It will of course be a major automotive focus today, but I think we'll start with some market updates. Markets are trading lower in Asia this morning, weighed down by AI-related concerns—South Korean SK Hynix and Samsung are both down. In Sydney the stock exchange is down over half a percent after the weekend's suspected terrorist attack on Bondi Beach. And as I mentioned, this is the last full trading week of the year. Agneta, what do you think? Will this AI concern continue to make itself felt?
I think this week will be rather quiet and somewhat boring, and then perhaps we'll get some activity during the days between Christmas and New Year so we still end up a bit higher than where we are today.
Håkan, do you follow the stock markets like that?
Yes, somewhat. I follow Volvo, naturally—you look at everything constantly. But then you also want to know roughly what everyone else is doing, to know whether you're doing well or poorly.
We'll be talking more about both Volvo Cars and Polestar later, as there's been some drama in that stock recently. But first, another piece of news from the weekend: the SpaceX listing was confirmed, and it really does look set to become the most expensive listing ever. The share price is expected to land at $421, almost double the figure mentioned last summer, giving a valuation of $800 billion. Bloomberg also reported that SpaceX will raise over $30 billion in new capital ahead of the listing, which would give a total valuation of $1,500 billion. A lot of numbers there. But those are also very large sums, Agneta. Almost hard to fathom that it would become such a large company.
It is, and it's naturally very difficult to value—the stock exchange isn't exactly teeming with space companies. So it's hard to assess what revenues to expect going forward. But it will be interesting to see how this succeeds and how quickly they raise the capital. It does feel a bit like a test balloon—the timeline and such details aren't finalized.
Håkan, this is a creation of Elon Musk. I know you've been impressed by him before, what he's done with the car industry. What are your thoughts about him today?
When it comes to how he drives industry, I don't think my thinking has changed much. He's had a remarkable ability to stay a step ahead, and people have been proven right to give him that credit. We talked for a long time about electric cars, but we were often thinking of small city cars. He made a large premium electric car—I think he was the first to do that, and I think that was completely right.
And Elon Musk's Tesla is a direct competitor to Polestar, which you mentioned earlier. You've been chairman and an owner there, and very active in making Polestar a standalone brand. Last week the stock collapsed after a reverse split, having been threatened with delisting from Nasdaq because it traded below one dollar for more than 30 days. How do you think about this whole collapse? Are you surprised the market value has basically evaporated since the listing?
We shouldn't comment on their share price—they can do that better themselves. But it does show that the market expects, naturally, to see results and performance from all companies. That's a comment one can make. Otherwise I won't comment on Polestar.
No. But how does your ownership in the company look today?
I am an owner from having been—I have a number of shares from my time at Volvo and as chairman.
So it's a bit painful for your wallet too, this decline, I imagine.
Yes, but it's probably not what I'm most worried about when it comes to the future.
But Polestar also came in when everything was at its peak and electric cars were popular. Everyone loved Tesla, and Polestar entered with a big splash, so after that there's been headwinds overall. It's not just them who's had it tough.
No. But I still think it was entirely right—if you want to make an electric car brand that stands out, it's not just about swapping a diesel engine for an electric motor and calling it done. You need a completely new identity for a car, and having a new brand, I think, was right even though it has turned out to be a tough journey.
Very interesting. We'll of course talk more about the automotive sector later, but I thought we'd run through the stock pick of the week—there's no bottom-fishing involved here. Agneta, you've put a buy recommendation on Nordea this week, which is trading at record levels. Can you tell us why?
It's no secret that we've been positive on Nordea for quite a while. After the latest quarterly reports, you reach a point where you wonder: should you quickly take profits or stay put? It has to do with the banking sector overall—it actually looks quite promising for banks at the forefront of digitalization, with large balance sheets and the ability to show growth. Nordea is in that lane. The stock is up 40% this year, and with dividends you're up nearly 50%. But several other European major banks have doubled, so there's a big megatrend here. Revenue growth will outpace cost growth going forward, I believe, and it has a lot to do with AI. Growth is coming from advisory services and small businesses—areas that don't tie up much capital. That brings down costs. The cost-to-income ratio has decreased from 48% to 46% and is expected to reach around 40% by 2030—achieved by spending less time per customer, plus the large investments in these areas are already done. They expect earnings per share of €2 by 2030, implying 7-8% annual growth. Next year we enter a phase where rates have bottomed out, loan growth resumes, and revenues remain strong. Plus they're changing their dividend schedule to twice a year, so next year you'll actually get one and a half dividends—the full 2025 payout and half of 2026. I think it's an attractive mix going into next year.
And how much of it is about dividends—what are you expecting?
The direct yield is about 6% now, but they also do buybacks, returning approximately 8% of earnings to shareholders.
It's an attractive mix, I think, going into next year.
Yes. And you mentioned the operational improvements and that this could lead to a higher valuation. Where should that valuation roughly be?
If we stay at the current valuation next year, you have about 10% upside. If you look at how it traded historically, and if they show growth and can steadily stay above 15% return on equity, then you could see it go up quite a bit more. But it's still a bit early to say—we want to see them deliver first before taking the next step.
We'll see how Nordea and the other banks do at the opening in a few minutes. But first I'd like to focus more on you, Håkan, because you were appointed CEO again on April 1, 2025, and the idea is that you'll serve for a two-year period. What made you accept?
It was a bit unexpected. But you know Volvo well, so I didn't need a long deliberation period. I felt the company needed better direction, as one could tell from the outside. The key is getting everyone to rally around a course forward—that's what felt right. If I'm given the trust to do something like this, of course I'll step up. And the longer I've been doing this, the more fun it's become, I must say.
There must be very strong feelings given that you've been at Volvo Cars for so long. Is it like your baby?
Well, not that long—it was 11 years last time. The majority of my time was spent with trucks before that. But of course, Volvo has always been, for all Swedes, something of a crown jewel. To get to take care of it, to steer it in the right course—it's an incredible trust and privilege.
And why do you think they asked you again?
They probably didn't have anyone better. No, I think they felt I had the background and experience to turn the company in the right direction, onto the right course.
And when you came back you had to start with quite a large cost-cutting package—reducing costs by 18 billion kronor, partly by cutting 3,000 positions. How was it to come back and have to do that?
It had been going on for a while. You sometimes realize things like this happen and you have to do it even though it's something you don't want to do. But the conclusion afterward is: we don't want to do this. Let's make sure we don't have to do it again in three or four years. That means really focusing on productivity every month, every year—especially on the office side, which is where we made the cuts. You need to extract productivity there too. In the last three years Volvo has actually been short-staffed—we were short 3,000 to 4,000 new hires. I think you need to be careful about hiring too quickly. You need to know what people will do and secure productivity. So essentially, what you've always done in the factory, you now need to start doing in the offices as well.
You've also invested heavily in technology in recent years. Looking at the forecasts, it seems the investment hump will decrease quite a bit. Have you done the big things you needed to do? What's left investment-wise?
I think there is a big hump—you're absolutely right. Partly a new car that isn't just a new car but a new platform. It's coming out in January, which is incredibly important—it involved huge investments. We built a factory and put in completely new equipment in Torslanda to build this car. Mega-press instead of sheet metal underbodies—you now press aluminum as a single piece, with major investments. All of that is done. So now we need to get down to a more—how do you say it in English—affordable level. Volvo's problem has been that we've earned quite decent money but kept reinvesting it back into the business. There's a limit to that. Results need to come out. When you're listed, shareholders want their share too.
Yes. And that's one of the advantages of being listed—you're reminded of it.
And you don't forget that it's about making money.
Yes, but this car you mentioned—the EX60 launching in January—it feels almost secret. We've tried to find pictures but haven't succeeded.
Yes, but it's described as a game changer that will compete with BMW's X3. What's it called? The reception has been very positive, which is great because it creates interest in electric cars—it's not just us.
What I usually say is, if you have a good restaurant, it's good if there are two other good restaurants on the same street corner. It's exactly the same here. This car enters a very important segment—the mid-class SUV segment where we haven't had a car before. And it addresses three things that are really important. Why don't people buy electric cars? First, it has to drive roughly as far as a regular car—range. Second, charging shouldn't take much longer than filling up a gasoline car. And third, most importantly, it shouldn't cost more than a regular plugin hybrid costs today. We're addressing all three with this new car, and that's why we call it a game changer.
Exciting. We'll of course talk more about that and other Volvo investments, and the entire European automotive industry which is truly under pressure. But the clock has struck nine, and we're going to Helena in the market studio to see how the stock exchange opens. Helena, there's a full focus on cars here in the studio, but things are happening on the stock exchange too—can you tell us how it's going?
No car stocks here, unfortunately. But we're seeing a positive start—the OMXS30 is up about 0.3%. Leading the list is SCA, which got a buy recommendation from SB1 Markets. Boliden is also rising, along with Addtech and several major banks. At the bottom we find SKF and AstraZeneca. Looking at the major banks: SEB has raised its target prices for Swedbank and Nordea, maintaining buy recommendations, while repeating a hold on Handelsbanken. Yet Handelsbanken is rising the most. Swedbank and Nordea are also up. Staying on Nordea—it's also the stock of the week, and this morning they announced they're raising fixed mortgage rates. It's shining green for them. Here we have Truecaller, where it looks like it's going to be a crash but we don't have a closing price yet. This caller identification company has issued a profit warning, forecasting 30% lower advertising revenues in Q4 compared to last year—partly due to an algorithm change at a partner they'd previously flagged, and also a weaker market in India. Madde interviewed the CEO earlier this morning, and he said this will also affect margins going forward.
It definitely will affect margins, and we are very conscious—we've always been conscious about cost and profits. So we have a renewed focus on costs now as well, which we'll talk about subsequently as we go through it.
The full interview is of course available on our site. Truecaller has been trading down 55% year-to-date, and we got a closing price—it's crashing 23% right now. I can also add that Match Group, down 60% in 2025 so far, announced over the weekend that CEO Lennart Eberle has resigned and will leave during the first half of 2026—weighing on the stock, down 2.5%. Sobi is also falling nearly 3% after announcing a multi-billion acquisition of American company Arctos Therapeutics—paying initially over 9 billion kronor with up to 5.5 billion more possible in milestone payments. That news came just before Friday's close and gained attention over the weekend. Sagax shows a slight lift after announcing the purchase of 36 properties for 1.1 billion kronor. Cavotec has received a 2 million euro order from a Danish paint company, falling 1%. And Skanska is up slightly after winning a 550 million kronor order to build a new indoor multi-arena in Kungsbacka. Broadening the view, it's still green—a positive start.
Thank you, Helena. Positive start on the Stockholm Stock Exchange, though not for Truecaller we must note, given this revenue update. Agneta, is this a reasonable drop, do you think?
The problem is it still doesn't seem like something that can be explained away, because it has to do with algorithms at search services resulting in lower advertising revenues—ad revenue expected to decline 30%, which is enormous. But the problem is it's not within Truecaller's power to handle. It's Google and others changing their algorithms, which the company can't do anything about. I always find it unsettling when you're affected by things you can't influence yourself. Truecaller has had a really rough year on the stock exchange, so this probably won't change the view of the company.
No, absolutely. Down sharply this morning—we'll see how it develops. But I think we'll leave the morning's stock movements here and talk about something very exciting. Ylva?
Yes, we touched on it before the opening—Håkan gave us three things needed for people to want to buy electric cars today. No one has missed that the European automotive market is facing headwinds. Volkswagen, for example, has for the first time since its inception had to close factories due to decreased sales and increased competition from China. What do you think about this? What is needed for the industry to survive?
What's happening is something we've seen before—we've been through it. The Japanese came in and made life uncomfortable for everyone making cars. Then the Koreans came, and now the Chinese are coming, and they're going to take a large share of the market. It's already happened—on their domestic market, Chinese brands have over 50%. And they have export capacity. They'll build assembly factories just as the Japanese and Koreans did. So we're getting a new competitor, and the only thing you can do is think about what can we do better. I think that's what you should do—not go to Brussels and lobby for protective mechanisms and eased regulations, but focus on becoming better, because otherwise you won't survive.
Ylva, you mentioned it—Volkswagen is closing its factory. It's an impact in a different way than before, and perhaps quite telling that parts of that factory will become some kind of tourist attraction. That's quite ominous—that's not the direction Europe needs to go. But you're suggesting these trade barriers might be somewhat wrong, though that's still the direction many are lobbying for.
Some form of import tariffs for Chinese cars will inevitably come. It would be unreasonable otherwise—they'd wipe out European and American industry very quickly. The fact that the Americans have reacted more or less forces Europe to respond in kind. But it's no long-term protection, because then they build assembly factories. They need to do that anyway because of the high logistics and transport costs of shipping from China. So we'll see Chinese car factories popping up in Hungary and Eastern Europe, I would guess.
But with the current technical development, the European car industry should also become less capital-intensive and less labor-intensive, and in that way be better able to compete with the Chinese, since labor costs have been much higher in Europe.
You can compensate for that with tariffs. I don't think that's the biggest problem, because even the Chinese will have to live with those costs when assembling in Europe. The key is developing cars, and that's really the Germans' problem now. They've earned a lot of money selling German cars in China. And now suddenly the Chinese have realized that electric cars are something they do well—they're often better, with faster delivery and superior infotainment systems, navigation, autopilots. They've been incredibly fast at developing those, plus battery technology and long-range electric cars. They have virtually total dominance in batteries. So that's more important than labor costs in the long run for saving the European car industry.
The Chinese cars are also much cheaper in China than when they arrive on the European market. Is it even possible for a European player to compete on the Chinese market today, or should one essentially forget about China?
No, I don't think you should do that. At least Volvo—we will definitely...
Not forget it, but we want to be a global brand. I think if you want to be a strong brand, you need to be global—otherwise you won't have that strength. And to achieve that, there are several things you need to think about. Number one: think more regionally. I mean, globalization is over and now the world is divided into regions. Then I think we need to move decision-making power and mandate to China and America to really adapt the cars. They might not need to be exactly the same as the global cars. That's one thing. And then it's about coming back to technical development, but also utilizing the advantage we have when it comes to brand and customer offering, where I think we have a strength that we shouldn't throw away.
Yes, and ownership too—I'm thinking, because in connection with the strategy day recently, you said that you're going to increase cooperation with Geely in development. How important will that be for you to stay competitive?
Mm. Yes, that's also something unique that we have, because without that it would be very difficult to stay in China. For example, a car in China will require completely different software systems and autopilots and so on, and development...
