Talking to CNBC-TV18, Dr Ranjit Rath, CMD, OIL discusses his views on
FY26 Volume Outlook
GST Hike Impact on Exploration Services
Impact of Rupee Volatility
#oilindialimited #cnbctv18 #outlook
Video courtesy: @CNBC-TV18
Questions asked in this interview
10
0:00When is the Numaligarh refinery expansion expected to come through?
2:42If you could help us out, and when do you hit peak capacity?
6:56Okay, 7.5 million tons this year, 8.5 million tons the following year. Is there any clarification?
7:21How big of a cost burden is that going to be for you and will it impact your bottom line?
8:03So because of this additional 400 crore, will there be any change in the kind of investments you would have made otherwise? Will you bring that down?
8:30I mean, as you make all these assumptions, what is your base case?
Let's get to our next management. Then we have Mr. Ranjit Rath, the Chairman and Managing Director at Oil India and Chairman at Numaligarh Refinery, who joins us on the show. Hi sir, good morning. Thanks a lot for joining in. We've got a lot of questions for you coming to you in just a bit. For the time being, just highlighting the three broad points we're looking at: FY26 volume growth outlook, that's what we want to know; the GST hike impact on the exploration services, the impact out there; and finally, the impact of the rupee volatility as well is something that we're looking to understand. Well, Mr. Rath, thanks a lot for joining in. Let's get to the first point. When is the Numaligarh refinery expansion expected to come through? I think it was expected in the next few months. You could give us an update out there and how will it affect GRM as well as the overall earnings of the company.
Okay, first of all, thank you very much for having me. Good morning to you and all your viewers. We had an excellent AGM yesterday followed by a press meet. Very happy to be here. Number one, the year just passed by FY25. We had a landmark year with highest ever production of crude oil and natural gas. That's 6.71 million metric ton oil and oil equivalent. As far as FY26 is concerned, we are looking at about 7 and a half million metric ton of oil and oil equivalent. We are looking at a much higher number of drilling. We are looking at a much higher number of exploration acreage and seismic data coverage. As far as Numaligarh is concerned, I must give you an assurance that the expansion is on track as we speak. The primary units, that is the CDU and the VDU of 6 million metric ton crude throughput, we will start commissioning by December 2025, and the DHT, that is diesel hydrotreating unit, will also be ready, but we need to have the sulfur unit ready first because I would like to explain that these are all batch basis commissioning and always linked. Therefore, we would start doing the remaining units commissioning by 31st March. By FY 2027, we would be looking at about 40 to 50% capacity utilization and sometime by 2028 for complete stabilization of 9 million metric ton. The second question you had asked before that I would also like to say.
Just one more point, sir. On the Numaligarh refinery, what will be the initial capacity utilization levels? If you could help us out, and when do you hit peak capacity? So we clear that out of the way.
Okay, so currently the capacity utilization of a 3 million throughput is 100% plus. Last year also it was 100% plus. And going forward, we are looking at that number also. In addition to that, beyond the Numaligarh refinery expansion, honorable Prime Minister has already laid the foundation stone of a polypropylene unit. That's another 7,000 crore investment. The basic design is in place. The detailed design is in place. The licensor selection is in place. So we are looking at 2028-29 to complete that as well. That will give us the petrochemical intensity index. So that's the Numaligarh good story.
Okay. Got it. All right. I just want to clear that the longer-term targets on both oil as well as on gas. I think you had mentioned around 4 MMT on oil as well as 5 BCM of gas. By when do you hit these levels? If you could break it up for us, sir, between both of them: 26, 27, 28.
So it's like this. 4 million metric ton of crude oil movement is primarily done through the infield lines and then the bowsers and then you have the trunk line to feed the refineries. The gas piece is contingent upon having a robust evacuation facility. Currently we are doing about 8 million standard cubic meters per day gas evacuation to regional customers, and we are looking at taking it to 13 million standard cubic meters per day. That is going to happen by the connectivity of Northeast Gas Grid. Phase one of Northeast Gas Grid has already reached Numaligarh from Guwahati. GAIL has already connected mainland India to Northeast by taking the pipeline to Guwahati. We have one dedicated line which is Duliajan to Numaligarh. The capacity expansion is expected by this year end from 1 million standard cubic meter to 2.5 million standard cubic meters per day, which will cater to the Numaligarh refinery expansion post. We also have a fertilizer plant which has come in there through the Namu 4, which is a urea and ammonia plant, 10,600 crore investment. Oil India has got a stake of 18%, Government of Assam has got 40% investment. There also we are looking at 0.7 million standard cubic meter per day natural gas supply once the Duliajan feeder line gets connected to the mainland pipeline. We will be able to evacuate minimum five to six million standard cubic meters per day. That will give us the evacuation opportunity. Till such time, we have already strategized our drilling program and we will be prepared to generate or produce 5 BCM of natural gas. As far as crude oil is concerned, we have enhanced our drilling efforts. Our rig counts are going to be 28 to 30 in number. Last year we had spotted 70 wells, completed 59. This year our target is to do 80. Based on this, we intend to achieve by this year end 7.5 million metric ton oil and oil equivalent, and going forward it will be 8.5 million with 4 million metric ton of crude oil.
No categorization. This is from the production of our near field exploration efforts from our mining leases. Should there be any new discovery from our exploration acreages, there will be addition to it.
Got that. Sir, there has also been an increase in the GST from 12% to 18% on exploration services. How big of a cost burden is that going to be for you and will it impact your bottom line?
It could impact, but it is not much as far as Oil India's balance sheet is concerned. This year we are looking at about 300 to 400 crore for that matter, will be the impact on the bottom line. Bottom line we haven't calculated. We are just waiting to see how our investments will pan out, but more or less the impact is about 400 crore as far as the GST is concerned.
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Rath, R. (2025, September 19). Dr Ranjit Rath, CMD, OIL speaks to CNBC-TV18 [Interview transcript]. Oil India Ltd. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/1052970/
MLA
Ranjit Rath. "Dr Ranjit Rath, CMD, OIL speaks to CNBC-TV18." Oil India Ltd, 19 Sep. 2025. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/1052970/.
BibTeX
@misc{rath2025_1052970,
author = {Ranjit Rath},
title = {Dr Ranjit Rath, CMD, OIL speaks to CNBC-TV18},
howpublished = {Interview transcript, Oil India Ltd. CEOInterviews.AI},
year = {2025},
month = {sep},
url = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/1052970/},
note = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}