There is no such thing as a moat. There is no such thing as somewhere you're going to be protected against innovation. Today we have a competitive advantage on areas absolutely but those can go away tomorrow. The only way to really long term is to continue to develop new services, new ways to do things. How can we do your business better? What do you need? Where you need more demand? Where are you hurting? It's so much more complex if you think you're just going to come in and do this business and knock away these very big players. I say you should really understand what the business is before you decide to commit your capital.
Today on No Prior, we're talking with Glenn Fogel, the CEO of Booking Holdings, a 20-some year veteran of the company who joined when it was just PriceLine and worth a few hundred million in the year 2000 and has since helped grow it to a hundred billion plus company with multiple massive assets across travel that are now being used in the AI era. We will talk about a variety of topics with Glenn that span everything from the growth and changes that have happened in bookings over time as well as his own career and perspective on AI. So Glenn, thank you so much for joining us today.
Well, thank you very much for having me.
Yeah, so you've had a really interesting career. You went to Wharton, you went to Harvard Law, along the way you worked in the MIS program at Morgantown. I'd love to just hear a little about your early background and how that led you eventually to Booking.com and eventually Booking Holdings.
So, real short, I came out of Wharton with a degree in finance and ended up in the back office in MIS. My first job was putting tapes on a drive in a data center. That's where I started as an operator. Then I became a developer, but I learned that wasn't a career for me. A lot of my undergrad friends went into investment banking and made money, so I thought I should try that, but you can't just jump from one career to another. So I went to law school, ended up on Wall Street as a banker. I did that until 1995, then the bank was bought and they fired most of the bankers, including me. Being fired was a great lesson—I learned what it feels like and it's stuck with me. After that, I was unemployed, my father died, my grandmother died, even the dog died. I decided to write a novel. I got it done and tried to get it published. I met a woman on a blind date who used to work at Random House as an editor; the book never got published, but I married her and we have two great kids. She told me to get a job if the relationship was going to work. A friend from law school got me a trading position at Morgan Stanley. I became head trader for a guy named Barton Biggs, but I didn't like it. Then the internet boom hit, and in 1999 I interviewed at PriceLine. They offered me a corporate development job, but I waited for my bonus in February 2000. I joined right after the NASDAQ peaked. PriceLine's stock went from $30 billion market cap to a few hundred million in months. Our stock traded at a dollar, we did a reverse split to $6. I stayed, and I've been there 27 years.
Our stock was at a dollar, we did a reverse split to $6. I've been there 27 years, and last summer we came very close to $6,000.
Over a little more than a quarter of a century, up a thousand times. Market cap was peaking around 180 billion, remember it was a few hundred million.
It's been a good ride so far. But of course, you never stop. Every day is a new adventure. You got to fight for a customer every day.
How do you think about the lessons from that internet era in terms of the current AI wave? Because we're seeing this massive shift in market cap, a premier explosion of new things, optimism, then backlash. The numbers are much bigger now, but I see a lot of parallels.
Yeah, because when I look at it now, companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have enormous revenue bases, and you see highly valued companies without revenue yet. In the internet era, about 1500 companies went public, and maybe two dozen are left. It's similar.
Do you think the same will happen to AI companies? Something different?
I wouldn't guess at the ratio. There have always been speculative booms over the last 150 years. They create tremendous innovation. But there will be a lot of disappointment and people losing money. That's the nature of how economies work. But there are also real companies.
How should founders decide whether to keep going or sell? Today there are many exit options. Do you think people should mainly be thinking about exiting now?
I can't give a general rule without knowing the specific facts. There were times when PriceLine would have been happy to sell. It depends on the situation, how confident management is, and what you're trying to achieve. What is your motivation? Are you trying to make something that matters or just make money? Both are fine, but you have to understand your own goals.
Back to Booking. One of the categories where AI is experimenting is travel. OpenAI had Checkout in ChatGPT, then canceled it, and Booking went up 8%. What didn't work there? How should people think about travel through the lens of AI?
