Mukul Deoras2:03
Thank you very much. So hello everyone. What I'm going to tell you has got nothing to do with any management consultant or any research agency or foresight agency and so on. I'm sure you've had a lot of conversations through the day on what's going to happen. I'm going to share a few thoughts and a few examples and a few beliefs that I have, and then we can chat about the strange things that are happening around us and how we can get out of it and do something more and bigger. So let me start with talking about VUCA. I mean all of you know VUCA, the volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. And if you talk about VUCA, this is really living in a hyper, hyper world and everything seems to be changing so dramatically. And from where I sit and I see countries like India and I see countries like China and I see countries like Australia, you see the complexity that's changing around us. There is so much of uncertainty.
But the story on India is very different from the story elsewhere, and that's what I wanted to focus a little bit on. I thought there are probably two things that we need to keep in mind. One, there is an underlying trend in India, and then there is a superimposition of certain turbulence that has recently happened, and we have to segregate these two because otherwise we can mix these signals and kind of jump to conclusions which may not be absolutely correct. So to start with the underlying trend, I still believe, strongly believe, that the fundamentals in India are very, very strong, perhaps the strongest I see anywhere in the region. I see so many countries, and I see even China, I see the Chinese trends and the ups and downs in China, so I actually see the fundamentals are very strong. And there are various reasons. What I'm going to tell you is not new to you at all, whether it's talking about growing income, growing consumption, multiple income families especially down the economic strata where the multiple income families has actually increased the per capita income and more importantly the disposable income that is available, nuclearization of the family is also leading to personal consumption instead of family consumption, and also a very simple fact that we have gone beyond just measuring literacy, we're now measuring education. And when you measure education, particularly of women, that education is not equal to knowledge, but education is actually leading to confidence, and that confidence leads to consumption. And this economic confidence leads to economic independence for women as well, and that drives more self-consumption. So you see, some FMCG categories which are women-oriented categories have seen explosive growths.
But you superimpose on top of that the turbulence that we are seeing right now because of what we're going through as a world in this pandemic. And I like to see this as a two-by-two matrix. You see that there is a kind of impact that you have, which is whether it's an immediate impact or a delayed impact, and then you see whether the impact is short-term or long-term. And you see this two-by-two matrix. If you start with immediate and short-term, it's about fear, it's about holding back consumption. That's what happened in the beginning of last year. But if you take the same immediate impact but over a longer period of time, we see a lot of health categories increasing. So again, an implication for FMCG is health is becoming more and more important for us as we go along. The other thing is about delayed impact, delayed but which lasts only for a short period of time. One example of that is perhaps the pent-up demand that we are seeing right now, consumption which is coming back, which in some senses is sometimes pantry filling, and in some senses it is like 'I missed out something, so let me consume something.' So there is an almost like a revenge consumption that's happening right now, which is again a short-term impact that's not going to last for too long. But the delayed long-term impact is about when we'll talk a little bit more about it: there is a two-speed economy that's emerging. There is one economy which is growing very rapidly and becoming richer, and there is one economy which is kind of struggling a little bit. And therefore this two-speed economy, the impact of that is going to last a little bit longer.
Over and above all of this, there is a gear shift. And this is not short-term, this is not long-term, this is a fundamental shift in the way people consume and behave. And it's tough to say it is a digital revolution. It is actually the revolution. It's not revolution, it is about accelerated evolution because every day changes and every day it keeps getting different and different all the time. So this rapid digital evolution leading to a consumption pattern which is more on-demand consumption, which is 'I get what I want, when I want, where I want, and I want it now.' This kind of consumption behavior is leading to a change in the buying pattern significantly. We talk about e-commerce becoming big and so on, but that is just the beginning of the change. Driving personalized consumption is going to be very, very big, and I see that in China as well where the personalized consumption is exploding. There are a lot of implications on the brand, and I'll talk about that in a minute or two.
But what are the other implications? I think the first implication is there is a significantly different kind of value definition that's emerging in the market. So if you talk about people who are resource constrained as against people who are not resource constrained, as I said there is a two-speed economy that is emerging, and therefore you probably get a bimodal distribution of income in the market. And because there is a bimodal distribution, we as marketers have to address these two worlds in a very distinct way. Each of our brands has to evolve and address these worlds in a very distinct way without destroying the fabric of the brand. So you wouldn't be surprised if you have a 10 rupee pack of a brand and a thousand rupee pack of the same brand. And in years gone by we would have been surprised how can a brand play like that, but that's really the format in which things are happening and they do coexist simultaneously. What that means is that it has very significant impact on innovations. So the value ladder of innovation is becoming extremely important. Again, innovations have to be across price points, innovations have to be across formats, delivery systems become very important because delivery systems help you to deliver the price points that you are looking for. And people are expecting same experience. I'll give you an example, let's take a shampoo sachet. That's an old example. People don't expect a different experience from a bottle and a sachet. Similarly, if a high-end skincare cream or a lipstick, whether you buy a small pack or a large pack, they don't expect different experiences, they expect the same experiences. So the value ladder becomes extremely important. But what's also behind all of this is people innovation these days is not just about product innovation, it is also about experience, and it is that which is extremely important. And experience is a combination of everything, the way you deliver. In the past, our innovations in the FMCG industry particularly used to be guilty of that, was either fragmenting a line extension so you have a variant of a variant of a variant of a variant, or you have a fragmentation of claims, 'oh I had 10 more and 20 this and 50 that' and so on. And that's how innovations used to be delivered at one point in time. But I think innovations have gone beyond that right now. People are seeking experience as an innovation. The product, the format, the delivery, the entire usage, the retail environment where it is sold, the way in which it is bought, the way it comes in, we talk about unboxing experience, that has become an integral part of innovation right now. Just go to the Nykaa website and just see what kind of experiences you get on the products, and it is so different from what you would otherwise get in a kirana store that used to be or a general market store that used to sell FMCG products in the past.
So the platform in which you interact with the product and buy the product have also become an experience driver. The other big thing that is happening is innovations are not just about products, but they become kind of an augmented product. People are expecting a little bit of digital interface with the products, and it's not any more surprising for them. And they're seeing augmentation coming through. I'll give you a couple of examples. A simple example which is not FMCG is about how a watch has become a health monitor also for all of us. Or even in the FMCG industry, how skin diagnostics and skin care are going hand in hand with each other. Something which is close to my business, an electric toothbrush and a diagnostics or measurement of how you perform inside the mouth is now become a common place in some markets. Paints that repel insects and so on. Augmented product is something that has become a reality at this point in time. I also think that people are now more demanding. The consumers are demanding not just the 'what' of an innovation, but the 'why' of an innovation as well. Part of this is also leading to that ingredient explosion that we see in the market. I mean, everything is ingredient, ingredient, ingredient. 'Oh this is multani mitti from here and this is saffron from there and if there's salt from there' and so on. All kinds of explosions are happening and ingredients are being used right now. Partly it is driven by the big wave of Ayurveda that we see in the market, but that's not something that's going to disappear. That, I believe, is here to stay.
I think one of the most critical changes in innovation is about how innovations are curated. I mean, gone are the days when you create a mega innovation and you launch it into the market and then hope and pray that it will succeed. Gone are the days when you put one, get into 500,000 stores or 200,000 stores distribution within one month and then blast advertising at 2,000 or 5,000 GRPs and get reach and frequencies and then say 'oh it's gonna work.' Those things don't work anymore. It's about curation of innovations. It's about designing an innovation, probably incubating it using perhaps a direct-to-consumer model to incubate the innovation, pivot as is required, and then scale up. This in some senses is going back to the old test market kind of thinking, except that those test markets used to be long drawn and had very little feedback mechanism and used to take a lot of time to see go/no-go, and the ability to pivot was much less. But now digitization and e-commerce, particularly D2C, has made a big change.
The other big implication of what's going on is also the media. Our media and how consumers engage with media are changing dramatically. There's more personalized, more on-demand, more digital, more specific targeted to the person who you want to speak to. It's no more the target audience of 'all adults 15 to 45.' Those kind of target audiences are very difficult to not just implement, but also there's a lot of waste in that target audience which we are not realizing because we can sharply focus our media much better. There is also more two-way communication between the receivers and the transmitter of the media. And then there is more to media than what we see. For example, the role of influencers. What used to be done by celebrities, now there are millions of micro-influencers who are making a difference, and that happens because there's a two-way communication connection linked between a consumer and an influencer which never existed in the past. And our ability to create brands purely on the basis of influencers is something that is not just new, but it is here to stay. If you see what's happening in the rest of the world, whether it is in the Western world or if you go into Far East, you see Korea, you see Japan, you see China, influencers live streaming is big, big business. And it's just our end, it's time that it will come. And at the back of all of this is data, data, data. Data helps us to create the backbone and the spine with which we can connect with the consumers and sharply target it. So one of the big things about FMCG marketers of the future is going to be how good you are and how comfortable you are with data. Another big change is the omni way of marketing. Omni as a world is becoming seamless. Whether you're online or offline, consumers are seamless between online and offline. Brands and marketers have to also become seamless between online and offline. That's not easy. Our organizations are silos between online and offline, and it is very difficult to cut across those silos and create the bridges so that there is consistency between online and offline. But that is going to become extremely important as we determine the future of this world.
Some evergreen messages like rural will continue the growth. I think also because incomes are growing, consumption is growing, but also data consumption is growing in rural. I was told that the data consumption in rural markets is now the growth in data consumption in rural markets far outstrips the growth in data consumption outside rural markets. I think it's just a matter of time when logistics hurdles will be overcome, and then these rural markets will leapfrog. We haven't seen e-commerce explosion yet. It is all held back by logistics challenges. Once those challenges are unbundled, you'll see e-commerce in rural areas explode like we have never seen before. I think one of the big changes that's also happening as a result of that and that's directly important for brands and consumer products is fragmentation. There's so much more fragmentation of brands that is happening because the overall barriers to entry are coming down. That does not mean the secret sauce for success is easy, but the ability of people to try is becoming cheaper and cheaper, and therefore people are going to become more eager to try out. And you see the plethora of brands that we see around us all the time, whether they are local brands, regional brands, or national brands, or even on various channels, and their channel-specific brands that have come up, and they have been able to create a small-scale experiment with which they can decide whether this brand is going to be successful before they scale up. So the focus on brands in a situation like that will become extremely important. It does not mean there is an end for large brands. In fact, there is even more role for larger brands. But the role for the larger brands is to be aware of the guerrilla attacks that they face from smaller brands, but at the same time not move away from what you really stand for. And it is brands, brands, brands. Brand thinking is going to be far more important than before.
And the last point I would really like to leave behind is what's going to define the winning code for marketers of the future is going to be agility. How quickly and how easily you can move on and pivot and do things differently is going to be a big call out for the future. Somebody said the other day, 'Change is always with us, and in fact what you see as disruption of today is actually the baseline of tomorrow.' So you got to get started all over again as the disruptions keep happening again and again and again. So agility and agile brands are going to be the winners of the future. So these are a few of the principles and learnings that I've had over the last few months, seeing and watching things happen around us, which may lead to a few more questions and thoughts as they go along.