Señor Invertia and welcome back to the second energy observatory of the newspaper. We are, as you can see, discussing very current and controversial topics on which there is much to say. We are going to change — not change the pace, but rather advance further into the world of gas. Gas is also electricity, of course; without it we would be lost. And we have with us to enlighten us on all this, the CEO, the top executive of Enagás, Arturo Gonzalo Aispiri, who has been in the position for almost four years. These have been very important years because Enagás has consolidated very well through 2024, it has saved, it has cleaned up its balance sheet, and it has a very interesting future ahead with the whole issue of green hydrogen, its conduction and infrastructure. Four interesting years and the years to come to be able to enter the ecosystem of green gases, especially hydrogen. How is the gas system right now? How are we? Because we have the natural gas network that carries all the gas, especially to combined cycle plants, so they can produce the synchronous energy needed to sustain the grid, etc. How is the system right now?
Thank you very much, Fernando, and good morning. Thank you very much, Pedro J, for the invitation and congratulations on the tenth anniversary. I would say that in terms of operation and commercial terms, the gas system is in perfect condition and enjoys excellent health. The proof is that very little is spoken about the gas system. Yes, it did not fail during the blackout. The gas system has never failed, never. It has always been up to the task, and in recent times we have faced very important challenges. You said that I have been in the position for almost four years. That's correct. And I began with the invasion of Ukraine and the gas system becoming the protagonist of the response to a situation that nobody thought could happen in Europe. And I have to say that the response of the Spanish gas system has been impeccable. We have guaranteed supply, and at more competitive prices than those faced by the rest of Europe. That meant a discount on Spain's gas bill compared to what would have occurred in other circumstances, estimated between 2022 and 2024 at 10,000 million euros. Yes. Therefore, the gas system always responds; it responded on April 28 when the combined cycle plants were needed to restore the electricity system and gas was needed for those plants. You know that on the early morning of April 29, combined cycles represented 50% of electricity generation in Spain, as has occurred at other times of peak consumption. It is not exceptional for combined cycles to provide 50% of electricity generation. We are prepared for the next challenges ahead. Of course, for the combined cycles to provide backup in this enhanced operation we are experiencing, combined cycles already represent 20% of generation on a sustained basis. Or for example, when the European Union considers interrupting the import of Russian gas starting in January 2027, the Spanish gas system is perfectly prepared for that, and in the last two months, Russian LNG represents 3.5% of supply in Spain. Therefore, Fernando, the gas system responds, but we have great challenges.
We will return to that geopolitical topic later at the end, which is interesting, but first we heard Cani Fernández this morning, the president of the CNMC, talk about remuneration because in gas there is also remuneration, they also have their rate of return that will be given in January, which you listened to carefully, that in January the rate will be decided. How do you see the short-term challenge? Will the regulation of that rate be sufficient or not? How do you estimate it? How should it be? What does Enagás think, which knows the most about this?
Indeed, we also have before us the new regulatory period with a one-year lag. Our regulatory period will be 2027-2032, but in relation to the TRF, the methodology is common. Therefore, we already know approximately our remuneration, and I have to say that it is, incomprehensibly, slightly lower than that for electricity, because a reducing coefficient is introduced for gas in the cost of debt, which, understanding financial markets, is something that does not make sense. But the TRF is common, as I said. What we are missing is the bulk of the gas regulation, as the president of the CNMC said: the circular on liquefaction remuneration, transport and distribution, and the circular on operating costs, unit costs, and tolls. What should happen? The objective set by the CNMC itself is that we have sufficient remuneration to continue providing this role of security, supply, and backup to the energy system and the electricity system, but at the same time make possible the penetration of renewable gases, biomethane, and green hydrogen into the Spanish energy system. And that means, Fernando, something very simple. We are already the most efficient TSO in Europe. ACER, the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, says so in its periodic evaluation reports. Enagás is the most efficient TSO in Europe. The minimum we should aim for is remuneration comparable to that of other TSOs in Europe, which means we can have remuneration that is, even if slightly, above our cost of capital. We need special attention to be paid to OPEX and the margin on OPEX. Because, as has been said, the gas infrastructure is very mature, it already invests little in new infrastructure, and part of the existing infrastructure is reaching the end of its useful life. Also, reconsidering the remuneration for extending useful life is fundamental for the new period.
Yes. Reutilization, and then all European operators, all European countries are committed, especially to a strong infrastructure now for green hydrogen. Green hydrogen is the new paradigm that the gas world faces. Will green hydrogen arrive? Will we see it become profitable? Is green hydrogen a bubble or reality?
Green hydrogen, Fernando, is already a reality. Yes, indeed. It has to be a reality because we all know that not everything can be electrified. There are many uses that need hydrogen as a raw material, or because it requires a high energy density, or as a form of storage, or for high temperatures in industry. The International Energy Agency estimates that by 2050, even in the most optimistic scenarios for electrification, approximately 50% of primary energy will still have to be molecules. And the great molecule of the future is green hydrogen. And it is not only the great molecule of the future, it is the great future opportunity for Spain to combine electrification with very competitive renewables and great available resources, but also green hydrogen for our own industrial uses and to export a surplus to Europe. Is industry using it? If there is demand from industry. Well, what we have is, as you know, a regulation that establishes the need to gradually introduce green hydrogen for land transport fuels and for industry. This is essentially the RED III directive, and that means that final investment decisions for large projects are being made every day. In Spain, very recently, Repsol, through its renewable arm, took the FID for a 100 MW electrolyzer facility in Cartagena. But in recent weeks, Air Liquide in the Netherlands has taken a 200 MW FID, OMV in Austria 140 MW, Galp MW, and in the coming weeks, as you will all see, final investment decisions will be made for Petronor in Bilbao, Repsol in Tarragona, Moeve in Huelva. So this is reality. It is already here, already present. Obviously it is a new market that is being implemented at great speed, with great challenges, but also gaining momentum. In the last two years in Europe, final investment decisions have been made for 2.3 GW of electrolyzers. That amount will practically be reached in the next 12 months. So the acceleration is indisputable, and green hydrogen, Fernando, fortunately, is beginning to be a reality. We cannot do without green hydrogen, and I must recall that COP 30 is starting these days in Brazil, which makes clear the magnitude of the challenge ahead.
