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Véronique Bédague
Chairwoman & Chief Executive Officer, Nexity

Immobilier, Logement, dans les yeux de Véronique Bédague

🎥 Jun 15, 2023 📺 Radio-Immo ⏱ 72m 👁 150 views
Chaque mois un grand témoin, acteur majeur de l’immobilier, se met sous le joug des questions des journalistes de la presse spécialisée. Ce mois-ci, nous recevons Véronique Bédague, PDG de Nexity. https://www.nexity.fr/ Nos partenaires : https://www.bienici.com/ https://www.regus.com/fr-fr
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About Véronique Bédague

Véronique Bédague, Chairwoman and CEO of Nexity, has described the current state of the French housing market as a "perfect storm" and stated that the sector is "at the bottom of the crisis." She attributed the downturn to a sharp rise in interest rates, a 50% drop in mortgage production, and a significant decline in private investment in housing, which she said was accelerated by the government's decision to end the Pinel tax incentive, calling it a "bad decision." Bédague noted that the company reduced its debt by half in 2024 and renegotiated banking covenants through 2028, which she described as providing financial security for the coming years. She has expressed cautious optimism for a rebound in 2025, citing lower interest rates and government action, while stating that the company's focus is on "profitable development." Bédague has also spoken extensively about the need for affordable, sustainable housing. She stated that "green housing must not be reserved for an elite" and argued that construction methods must be rethought to make it affordable. She identified land costs as a major factor in housing prices, accounting for 30-50% of the price in metropolitan areas. Bédague has advocated for a "flat tax on real estate" and called for a comprehensive national housing policy, noting that "4 million French people are poorly housed" and that housing is a "technical and budgetary subject" that affects citizens' daily lives. She has also highlighted Nexity's internal transformation, including a new organizational structure and a focus on digital services and modular construction, which she said can reduce costs by 4-5% and shorten construction times by two months.

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Transcript (38 segments)
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Sylvain Levivalency0:03
Grand Jury of the real estate press, a show in partnership with Regus, presented by Sylvain Levivalency. Hello everyone, thank you for being with us. Today is a symbolic day, June 15, 2023, 6:31 PM. We are live for this June edition. We will first have the Grand Jury review, then the great debate with our guest, and finally the real estate forecast. First, I am pleased to welcome our guest of the month, Véronique Bédague, Chairwoman and CEO of Nexity. Good evening, Véronique. We are delighted to have you.
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Charlotte1:17
Hi Sylvain, how are you?
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Sylvain Levivalency1:19
I am fine. I am glad you are with us. We have a June edition that we wanted, and we thank you, Véronique, for being with us. Our journalists are here. I have the pleasure of seeing him every month in the Tour de France. He is the editor-in-chief of Figaro Immobilier, my friend Olivier Marin. Hello, Olivier.
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Olivier Marin1:44
Hello Sylvain, hello everyone. I am very happy to be back in this club of the press with Véronique Bédague, a great guest. The Grand Jury of the press was initiated originally with two friends of the real estate press, Marie Cœur de Roy, who is listening but could not be present. Excuse her.
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Sylvain Levivalency2:02
Excuse us. Anyway, we have Virginie Grelot, journalist from Challans. Hello Virginie. She is a great regular of the show. We are always happy to have her. Also, the climate is quite warm, both inside and outside, and warm in the business. My friend Bruno is also with us. Hello Bruno.
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Bruno Manie Minard2:25
Good evening Sylvain, good evening everyone. Journalist from Le Point.
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Sylvain Levivalency2:28
So, you noticed, Bruno, I say it every month, but I say it again, I told you 20 years before meeting you, especially this great article you wrote in the 2000s on telework, where you were 20 years ahead on the uses of telework. I am delighted and honored that you are here. Now it's the third season of Bruno. We will talk about a dossier you did on Paris, but also about the real estate forecast with our friend Philippe. And first, ladies and gentlemen, I am glad you are connected. Radio, ask your questions, Charlotte will moderate. And if you wish, we can even take some on air. But first, we will go to the Grand Jury review with our journalists. Right after, the Grand Jury of the real estate press - the review of the Grand Jury.
So the idea of the Grand Jury review, Véronique, is to give the floor for a few minutes to our journalists from the press for either a blues, a rant, or a favorite. I won't hide that favorites are rare these days in the real estate industry. But positive. One thing is sure, we will try to get an overview of your opinions, friends. I propose we start with Olivier Marin from Figaro.
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Olivier Marin3:57
Yes, can I do a favorite and a mini blues? It's possible. Favorite: we don't talk much about these architects and urban planners who are often in the shadows, who anticipate because urbanism and architecture are not just buildings and housing, but everything around - mobility, equipment, transport. My favorite is a tip of the hat to Simon Tessou, who just received the Grand Prix of Urbanism 2023. He is a great architect, director of the National School of Architecture of Clermont-Ferrand, and has led many operations, especially in Aurillac. He founded the Atelier du Rouget in Cantal, uses wood, defends rurality. He is doing great operations all over France. Bravo to him. Blues: it's in line with what happened at the CNR. I don't understand, but I think it will probably sort out. We had mentioned the status of the private landlord, recognizing the investor, especially in new construction, as a full economic actor that allows not only building housing but also housing families. Building housing creates jobs, construction, craftsmen. It seems logical and interesting. And especially in new construction, I don't understand why this idea - particularly Véronique Bédague, we had mentioned it at your press conference and I asked you, you said 'I think it's on track'. So I don't understand what happened for this status of the private landlord to be dropped, especially since we know that in new construction we will need private investors one day or another. We had seen extremely... it was when Cécile Duflot was at the Ministry of Housing, it was absolutely necessary to have a rental investment scheme, and we finally got the Duflot, but we lost a lot of time. So that's why it's a blues. I feel it's a missed opportunity. We'll probably wait a year for this rental investment scheme and something for the private landlord status.
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Sylvain Levivalency6:12
If you want, I'd like to bounce back. It seems to me that Olivier Klein had even published in the press that he was favorable to the private landlord status. I don't know, I'm not a minister, but I would have taken that as a bit of an admission when the report of the restitution of the CNR was presented, it was quite disappointing, to put it mildly. Thank you, Olivier. Virginie Grelot, the blues, favorite, rant?
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Virginie Grelot6:39
Rant, because I'll leave the blues, but it can't be a favorite, of course. I saw a tweet from Manuel de Merde from the Abbé Pierre Foundation explaining that today there were still 1,500 children sleeping outside. I don't have the perimeter, I think it's Paris or Ile-de-France, but no matter. I find it unbearable to know that there are children sleeping outside. I won't even comment on the results of the CNR or the moments of the HCSF. We simply see a striking lack of listening on housing issues. We know there are difficulties, but we hear the difficulties accumulating for months. There are people who need housing, whatever their situation. There are 4, 5, 6 million people poorly housed in France. We are a country of 68 million inhabitants, not the last country in the world, and we still have 1,500 children sleeping outside. For me, it's unbearable.
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Sylvain Levivalency7:59
I completely share your opinion. I take advantage of what you say, Virginie, to salute the work of the foundation and the pleasure of being part of the board of directors led by Isabelle Larochette, who fights for better housing without invective, without dogma, without ideology, just to help people. And she received this week a letter from the Ministry of Housing that will give her the insignia of the Order of Merit. I don't know who is at the origin of this, she called me this morning, she was delighted, but also saddened to be sometimes powerless before this reality. And we talked about these situations that are absolutely dramatic. You also talked a lot with Christophe Robert from the Abbé Pierre Foundation. It's good to note it. It's just unbearable. Unbearable to think about it, especially when we are in France, a free country, a democratic country, a country that has the means to do otherwise. This can only grumble in public opinion. We will talk about it later, but I think the social situation... I think it's Karine Olivier who talked about it yesterday at the low-carbon affordable construction salon that you initiated, Véronique Bédague, in which she expects in September a serious crisis of the private rental sector, since it has never been so low, so tense. It's historic. I've been in the business for 35 years, I've never seen such low figures. We really need to be concerned. Thank you for pointing it out. Bruno Manie Minard, rant, favorite today?
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Bruno Manie Minard9:31
A favorite, actually. I take you to Budapest, the Hungarian capital. There is an urban planning, architecture, and cultural project that is quite interesting. In their municipal park, which is a bit like our Bois de Boulogne but smaller, called Varosliget, 120 hectares. Tourists know it because of the famous Széchenyi Baths, the open-air thermal baths with magnificent Hungarian architecture. There is a castle that is a replica of Dracula's in Transylvania. There is already a Museum of Fine Arts and a Museum of Contemporary Art, and Heroes' Square. That's the tourist postcard. What's happening is that a decision was made, financed with a lot of money, some say from bistros, to turn it into a museum district, like what we did with the Fondation Vuitton in the Bois de Boulogne. It started with a funny building, a House of Music with a concert hall of 320 seats, exhibition spaces, classrooms. And I don't know if you can see the images, but how to say it, it's by the architect Sou Fujimoto, known in France for the 'Arbre Blanc' in Montpellier. He built this House of Music, and he had a real flash of genius, a kind of magical mushroom, with holes in the hat. I'll ask the production if they can find the images. It's a mushroom that merges with the forest, so it's inside-outside, with glass bays. It's really remarkable. I've been a fan of Fujimoto for a long time, and I was very surprised. The most recent news is an ethnographic museum that is like a giant skateboard, with a roof garden of 7,000 square meters where people walk on it. It was done by a Hungarian firm, Napur Architect. 60% of the structure is buried in the ground. They expect 300,000 visitors per year. There will be more museums by very big names. I've been to Budapest several times.
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Sylvain Levivalency12:29
You added a bit of poetry. Thank you, Bruno. Thank you, Charlotte. A favorite, a rant?
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Charlotte12:35
Well, I notice that men are fascinated by architecture, while women are sad for the children. So I'll stay in line with Virginie, since it's a blues. There were the philosophy baccalaureate exams. I think of all those students who will find themselves looking for housing for the start of the school year. We had a few weeks ago the results of Parcoursup. It's getting more and more complicated. For parents in some cities, it's a battle for three to four months to find housing. I think of all these students because I remember I got my bac in 2003, so it's starting to date. I remember it was already a struggle. And I think, when I look at my children, it will be even worse for them, very likely. So it saddens me a lot because today there are young people who don't do the studies they planned just because housing is too expensive in that school. Olivier, with the mayor of La Rochelle, you remember, he said he received young students who changed their professional orientation because they couldn't come to La Rochelle. He cited concrete cases of students sleeping in their cars. The situation has reached an explosive level, absolutely phenomenal. And he told us other cases of retirees who could no longer stay in their homes or in the city center, forced to exile themselves from their natural environment. It was absolutely dramatic. And I, at the time, was a scholarship holder at the highest level, and I didn't get a place in the CROUS, so I had to pay for private housing. That was okay because I was in Le Mans, a medium-sized city, but in Paris, how do you do it when you don't have parents behind you?
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Sylvain Levivalency14:33
Thank you for participating. This Grand Jury review is over. Now it's time to move to the great portrait of our guest. We'll go live on the news. It's the big subject. We'll talk first about the restitution of the National Council for Refoundation. There is a lot to say about the housing aspect. Right after, the Grand Jury of the real estate press - the big subject. Thank you, Véronique Bédague, for being with us. It's a real pleasure to have you on the set because you have not spared your efforts for several weeks, several months. You are on all platforms, on all fronts to defend the cause of housing, and especially the cause of housing for the French. I propose, as a preamble, to put into context the words you have taken. We have taken several periods from the last few weeks and months where you are on all fronts. I will ask you to react right after that, after listening to the report.
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Véronique Bédague15:24
Yes, but finally, that won't give housing to the French, which is still the underlying social crisis, extremely strong, the tension in society that is already extremely strong. It's still very linked to housing. You complain about Emmanuel Macron who talks about everything except housing, you say. Absolutely. I think there will be a real collapse. The individual house, we see that if it's reduced by 40%, we will have a reflux of the same magnitude on new housing. So yes, the housing crisis is a slow poison, but it's an extremely sure poison. For my part, within my company, within Nexity, I carry this desire to build a more sustainable city. What I say simply is that this climate and resilience law, I'm not sure it was perfectly clear at the beginning about what it would entail. We fight for the sustainable city. I am a committed woman and I am perfectly aligned with the values of my company, and that is very precious. And for my company, investors, whether public or private, institutional or private, need to use profitability somewhere. If it's more profitable today to put your money in a Livret A than in real estate, you will all put it in Livret A, within the limit. The status of the private landlord, to me, seems like a common-law response to these issues of real estate investment. I understand that in the CNR working groups, the subject was relaunched. Olivier Klein himself said, I support the idea of a private landlord status. I think if a minister speaks, maybe there is an opening or a possible discussion. But again, do we need housing in this country or not? It depends on what we're talking about. If there is no need for housing, we'll take care of other things. First, I think new construction allows the whole system to breathe. Maybe we have enough housing, but I just don't have a rental market. So there is a subject. The CNR should settle this question. The housing crisis is first a structural crisis. There aren't enough housing in the places where our fellow citizens need them. All of you in this room have lost 25% of real estate purchasing power. That's huge. It's one less room. We are grumpy, maybe even angry. The French are minimalists. It's impossible. We really lack very strong elements on homeownership. I told you earlier, the PTZ is a joke. What they are telling us, we don't treat the young people of this country well. When you are young today, there is no way to have access to property. How dare we? Our generation, did it not give these young people access to property? It's hyper frustrating. There was a big winner yesterday, we realized this morning: the Ministry of Finance, because there were two billion euros in savings made in the budget yesterday, so the deficit is better.
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Sylvain Levivalency18:05
So it's interesting because I will put the speeches in context. The first was on January 18, 2023, you were at the Social Affairs Committee. Then it was April 24 on Inter at 7:50 AM, April 24, 2023, and finally on Quotidien on June 6, 2021, in front of our friend Barthès. The things were clear. You clearly announced that you are rather angry. We agree on that. Is it the mountain that gave birth to a mouse with this very disappointing character of the restitution of the CNR conclusions? Did you hope for more?
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Véronique Bédague18:39
As I said, despite everything, there were things that happened during this CNR. First, I repeat, we must be honest. We were received at length by the ministers and at the Elysée by the Secretary General of the Elysée. So we had the opportunity to present our convictions. So that's not so bad. I think the government really worked on these subjects. We saw at the CNR the Prime Minister. I remind you that it's been 6 years since I heard a Prime Minister talk about housing policy. So Isabelle was there, she said very clearly, because I wrote everything down, we were there, we discovered the speech on the way. She said: 'This is a very important subject for our fellow citizens. I take the subject head-on and it will be at the heart of my roadmap.' Frankly, that starts well. She was there, she said it's a big problem, I take the subject head-on, it's at the heart of my policy. We were with Christophe, we relaxed a bit at that moment. So there were positive elements. There is a real interest now for intermediate housing, and I think that's really interesting because it's probably a missing step in the residential path. There were credits announced for the renovation of social housing. There was the development of the BRS, which is something interesting. There was the extension of the 'world war' which can help some young people find rentals. There was also the announced intervention of the Caisse and Action Logement, but that's an emergency measure, not structural. Then there are three huge absentees. First, the PTZ. At the time, it took time to understand. Elisabeth Borne said the PTZ will be extended. We thought we had won. But then in tight zones and not for individual houses. We had about 36,000 communes covered by the PTZ, now we are at about 1,000 communes covered only in tight zones. I reassure you immediately, I think we have with energy and enthusiasm extended an empty set. That is, typically we put PTZ in places where the most modest of our fellow citizens probably cannot buy. So that's a real frustration. I think the PTZ is still an aid today for the most modest and young to have access to it. It has proven itself. I know it's costly, but it's something that puts a little flexibility and breathing into the system. To say, 'Well, there are many communes, you mentioned earlier, and it's over, there is no more PTZ.' I find it unfair, I find it dangerous. That was a surprise. You discovered it during the speech? Yes, yes, in that. They told us they would extend the PTZ. We thought it was great. And then they extended the PTZ only in tight zones. I had said to Olivier Klein, 'You will end up extending an empty set.' That creates a lot of frustration. Same for individual houses, saying we no longer finance, there can no longer be PTZ for individual houses. I remind you that at Nexity, we don't build individual houses, but we build building lots. It's our most modest clients who buy these lots and build houses on them. So sociologically, we are saying, 'Well, the most modest, there will be no PTZ, because in tight zones it's over, and in addition, there will be no individual house.' I find the sociological shock of this announcement extremely violent. It's not just an Excel sheet. It's behind what happens. So that was the first subject. There was a second subject that is very imprecise. It's great, there will be no more Pinel. It's the end of the fiscal paradise for investors. That's what the president wrote in Challenges. So that must be the depth of his thought. And Elisabeth Borne said, 'But we see that there is a subject on rental investment, so we will review, we will work.' I could take my notes. This subject, I don't know what it says in reality. She didn't seem to say we will only treat Airbnb subjects. She seemed to say there is a subject, we will treat it more generally. So I don't know if this part of the private landlord, which was clearly carried by Olivier Klein publicly in the press several times, is the work being done at the Ministry of Finance. I hope so for all of us. So there was an opening from Elisabeth Borne on this subject. But we heard nothing. There was just an announcement by Bruno Le Maire saying, 'We will treat Airbnb subjects.' That's not what Elisabeth Borne said. Of course, we need to treat the Airbnb subject, because I think in La Rochelle, it must be related, but we are not going to tax things that are likely to give some support to investors on the possibility. It's the end of July, I think. The time for all arbitrations to be made. And the question you asked earlier about investors, what fascinates me is that I spent my time saying investors are very important. They create the rental market. If a part of the French don't have the means to buy for now, we need to produce a rental market. And the production of the rental market happens when? Because ultimately all investors are rational. If your return is much lower than other investments, at some point you tend to go to other investments. Even if, as you all know, behind real estate there is more than an idea of return, there is protection and preparation for retirement. So it's a bit more complex than that. But still, the return. And there is the idea that we made tables, we showed that on average today, with interest rates, after about 2% return rate, which is not the fiscal paradise announced. And I think we didn't manage to convince, because then they announce as a huge victory the end of Pinel. We want to say, 'But forgive us, we put the tables under your eyes, we explained what weighed on profitability, the property tax, etc.' Have you received any arguments? That is, we have the impression that everything the professionals put forward, the government, at least the measures announced by Elisabeth Borne, we have the impression that there was a malicious pleasure in doing exactly the opposite of all the professionals' demands. It's quite striking.
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Sylvain Levivalency25:25
So you alluded to this interview given by Emmanuel Macron in Challenges. My colleagues who interviewed him took a question on housing because it wasn't necessarily in the narrative, it wasn't obvious, and it wasn't a question he necessarily wanted to answer. And when I saw the restitution of the answer, you say to yourself, 'OK, it hasn't moved one bit.' The question clearly didn't please him because it wasn't a very positive record he had to put forward, and he was even less happy because the interview was done the day after the downgrade of France's rating. But closing the parenthesis on Emmanuel Macron, what arguments are put forward by the government to say they take such and such a measure, they effectively suppress the sector of individual houses, which we know is cheaper to buy or build a house than to buy an apartment? What are their arguments? I have trouble understanding what their arguments are for making this kind of decision. So we think maybe you have heard some, but we haven't. Not us either, actually.
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Véronique Bédague26:46
That's an excellent question you ask. Honestly, it's a question that Christophe and I asked ourselves all the following week. Because there were meetings in ministers' offices with Elisabeth Borne. They went to the end of the subjects. She granted us this time, and she knows her subjects. She was director of urban planning in Paris and she directed... she is someone who knows what it means. So we had real discussions. And I think that perhaps the impatience, the fatigue, or perhaps the little hint of anger that rises from time to time is that we say, 'But in fact, we discussed, and really with Christophe we put files on the table, we showed what the charges were that weighed on rental investment.' No one ever called us back to say, 'In your table, you need to...' 'It's not very good, it's fine what you gave us, but we don't agree.' Same on all subjects. The margin of developers. Imagination has no limits. They imagine us having margins on the order of Hermès, I think. Not exactly. I wish you that. But you know that's not the case. So we even went so far as to pull out official documents with all the margins of the CAC40, the SBF 120. We see that in 2022 we were around 6-7-8. You know we are no longer there. So I don't know. I have the impression of having produced what was needed, etc. And in the end, we find ourselves as if we had spent an hour and a half, and really the discussion took place, but in the final addition, we say to ourselves, 'But in fact, nothing happened during the meeting. It didn't change the preconceived ideas that were on the table.' The first is that investment in housing... you said, you said what? 'We know there are difficulties, but let's share it, because I'm not sure everyone agrees that there are difficulties.' There is this first subject. Some think that everything is fine, we have plenty of housing. If it wasn't going well, there would be more vacant housing. We could maybe abolish second homes. It will all be resolved. But that's not the daily life of the French. Or the big bosses who say, 'Where am I going to house my employees?' Because what Thierry said, he said we notice that every year the distance between workplace and housing increases. I have seen big bosses of public companies in France. It's their major problem. When you have services that start in the 92nd district and none of the employees live in the 92nd, it's a problem. It takes time for them to get there. It's very weakening for the public service. So already, I think it's so obvious to me who has a problem. I live it every day, everywhere in our agents, in our student residences, in our residences for the elderly. I live every day the pressure of daily life and the field. So for me, it's obvious. You tell me there is something, I am glad you tell me because there were moments when I said to myself, 'But in fact, we don't live in the same world.' And then, I don't know how to say it. I don't know. Our arguments didn't carry. I assure you, Christophe and I, we really don't know how to economize. We wrote files, we submitted official documents. You know, there is always this idea that it's a super-profitable sector, that we overcharge for housing. At the beginning of the mandate... You will talk about fiscal paradise. That's it. That was, in my opinion, the Pinel. Not products that only... To zero all aids and remove all taxes, then we will be just fine. In fact, you are not resigned. There can be something. You say it's possible. We have no choice. I consider that Christophe and I consider that we had gone as far as we could for the CNR. We took a public position as part of the CNR communication. Now we will find a more normal mode of operation. For me, it's the FPI, it's Pascal Boulanger who will carry with our help what they have brought to parliamentarians. So I am stepping out of this role a bit. Not yet, but over this whole period I worked a lot with Pascal Boulanger. We exchanged almost every day to be completely aligned. There is no misalignment on all these subjects. We worked in close cooperation and articulation. You mentioned Christophe Robert, who does a remarkable job. He is a real whistleblower. Just the words, Charlotte. He said, 'I feel torn between a hangover and a little hope, but not much.'
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Charlotte31:36
I allow myself to make a small intervention regarding what was just said, especially about the individual house. Even though I hear the arguments put forward by real estate professionals, especially the fact that the target of this type of property is modest households, I can't help thinking that since the Ministry of Housing is under the Ministry of Ecology, and with everything that has happened recently, especially to avoid urban sprawl, I think of the ZAN. I think the individual house is clearly not the future of housing for them. Oh, but it's practically banned. I think it's a ban that doesn't say its name. Honestly, I think it was enough to let the effect of urbanization and the seas work, let them take responsibility. We see that these products are starting to densify. Was it really necessary to also tell people no PTZ? I think it's too much. Have you also quantified the consequences? So we will reduce by maybe 40% or something. I don't have an estimate. But OK, the house is reduced to zero. Have you also, through the fact that when a developer launches a project, there is also a part of social housing that will be built? You remember, it's a third. So in the end, how many social housing units? And how many, roughly? I estimate about 50,000 fewer rental housing units. So what anticipation do you have on this projection?
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Véronique Bédague33:20
It's still a bit early. I think it's not impossible, but honestly, for now, it's a discussion we have with Pascal quite often. We have trouble projecting what happens. I can't believe the situation will remain in this state. I think it's going to unfold. Someone will finally realize. I don't know. But I think we could go below 200,000 at the rate we are going. Figures were circulating from some economists, from the Treasury to the Bank of France, that we must not exceed 200 to 300,000 housing units. There is no land for economic reasons or for appeals. If you have a percentage in mind? For now, it's ongoing. We are reworking each project. We have been doing this for a year. We rework, change the programming, renegotiate what we can renegotiate. Everything is really in motion, but clearly we are slowing down some programs. I am in the field, we see it. Especially with Sylvain, we also talk a lot about the 'mayors builders'. We see the Frugal Building label in Bordeaux, Construction and Citizenship in Rennes, Quality of Construction in Nancy, Building Together in Nice, in Tours, in Aix. There are charters on construction, building differently, which have no legal value but are in fact an agreement that imposes itself, an agreement between local authorities, real estate developers, social landlords on the ground. What do you think? Is that going in the right direction? How do you experience it? These local construction charters. I have trouble making an analysis of the sum of additional constraints they represent. My teams on the ground learn them. I think if we did an analysis of all these charters, it's not impossible that we are asked to be the biggest, which costs less, industrialized, but how...
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Sylvain Levivalency35:31
Do you want me to industrialize? I absolutely agree because often we have discussed with you that they all go with their own charter as if there were specificities. But what I had trouble understanding, and these are questions we asked the mayor, is that they are invariable on the exit price, there is a tax as if there was an extension, a financial elasticity at the developer, which at some point makes it normal to produce beyond with gaps of 20 to 25%. And that's where we understood the electoral injunctions, okay. We clearly see that there is a limit to the exercise in territorial planning, because it's political colors. They told us, we signed it partly out of pure obligation, not all of them, but some signed because they wanted to work. But I think they are very different in nature, and I think that for once we said at the end of the CNR, the big missing party is still the local authority. So Isabelle Doorn said we will ask the prefect in dense areas to go look with local officials at the gap between what was planned in the PLH and what actually happens, and then we will start discussions. That's not useless. But really, we said we must reconsider the role of the state and the role of local authorities, avoid waste delegations. A great work from the CNR on these subjects of what should be left at the center and what should be put. And despite everything, I think this housing issue necessarily involves a reflection on the revenues of local authorities. We are in a perfect vicious circle where local authorities no longer have much control over the property tax rate. How can I put it? Bruno, you wanted to intervene on this subject.
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Bruno Manie Minard37:45
I understand your disappointment, your frustration with this commission that gave birth to a mouse, as you said earlier. But at the same time, we shouldn't be too surprised. I remember the Attali commission, the work that Guillaume Poitrinal did on simplification, etc. What more can we say about the report? We are still a country champion of this kind of thing, champion of reports. What I wanted to ask you is that, finally, don't you believe – and this is a bit provocative because I know your communication goes in a different direction – but you spoke earlier of a sociological shock. Don't you believe that there is also an ecological shock, and that we have gone too far in this desire to no longer artificialize the soil, as the formula goes, to want all housing to be energy-efficient, etc., with building permits no longer being issued? And in the end, people who can't, because it's more expensive to live in less remote areas or with standards, it's more expensive for builders, it's more expensive for occupants, and so people don't go there.
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Véronique Bédague39:06
Well, you know my convictions. I think we have no choice; it's a real conviction. We have to go for it. I am nearly 60 years old, and I really think about the world I will leave to my two children. I feel responsible, and they make me feel it for what we have done. So you will never see me say 'we don't care, it will be fine.' No, I think we have to fight, and we all fight honestly. Yesterday, Sylvain, you were there, we had our low-carbon salon, both for renovation and construction. Frankly, the sector is very committed; it's really nice to see. Builders beyond divisions, extremely interesting. And I am convinced that a world that is more respectful of the planet, more in dialogue with the world we are in, is a better world. So I have no qualms. The only qualm I have is making decisions without having measured the effects and without doing a mortal plan. So on RE2020, I remember I wrote to Emmanuelle Wargon saying we have to go for it, we are ready, we are working on it, we are ahead. On the other hand, on the Climate and Resilience law, I said, have you measured what it corresponds to? What type of stock? She told me, but for you, what does it give? For me, as a syndic, there is a lot of new builds, so I am not representative of the stock. When we see that after the vote of the Climate law, almost two years later, Valérie Pécresse asks what it means for Île-de-France, the Urban Planning Institute of Île-de-France, which does remarkable work, says that in fact, I think it's 45% of housing that is rented today in the private sector in Île-de-France is affected by this regulation. Half. But how are we going to do that? I think that for once, this is a subject that Isabelle Borne has well in mind. I think the planning work done at Matignon is essential. There will be no fundamental shift into a more ecological world if we don't think about planning; otherwise, we will crush a part of our fellow citizens' conditions. We need to know what we are doing. And then, roughly speaking, I think you can perhaps accept to lighten certain standards that are imposed on us today, maybe there are things to rework. Before working on telework, which has taken off phenomenally, if we take new housing, could we adapt certain regulations? I'm thinking of the PMR regulation. People sometimes say, where is the living room with a bathroom as big as the kitchen? Could it be that on some, I don't question the validity of accessibility, but could it be only on certain apartments in a program? No, because we all need to live in our homes. We'll all end up in a wheelchair at home. And also, we talk a lot about the blues and ecology. There is a question that interests me: with telework, we spend more time at home. Have you changed the way you design your programs? Well, of course, if we can take outdoors, I imagine that's in the specifications. But having an office or modular things, I say this because in the dossier, the Point dossier, real estate today, we give a lot of leads on how to do with so many square meters if you can't access property to optimize your home. Yes, obviously, I think that in the past, we didn't think about putting the office there. I think this question arises. It is translated, for example, by more electrical outlets. That's something that was immediate. There are places where you can work with your computer; you don't need an extension cord. For example, we have used more areas that were perhaps neglected. I think there is a little work to do on furniture; we are looking at a startup that works on furniture. But I also think you have to give us a little freedom. The Pinel Plus, for me, was a monument of technocracy where you are told how many square meters each room and each balcony must be. Once you've done that, you're already well, the costs are higher, you are not creating additional spaces. So I think we also need to accept more freedom and creativity. I have seen some teams in some areas create things that are between a studio and a two-room apartment, precisely to have this office space. But if everything is regulated, I'll do what I'm asked, it's expensive, I won't do anything more.
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Sylvain Levivalency44:23
Charlotte, I would like us to take stock technically of what was said in the CNR, notably. We will talk about the housing plan, talk about all these very concrete elements to properly situate what is leading to this collective anger today. Since one thing is sure: the announcements made by Elisabeth Borne highlighted the ministerial inefficiency of Olivier Klein, in my opinion. That's one of the absolute confessions. It's incredible that he didn't even express himself about it. Moreover, some colleagues, former local elected officials, from local areas, are still saying, 'What the devil was he doing in that galley?' We can decently ask the question. Result, Charlotte, I don't have them all in mind, but there was the doubling of the number of beneficiaries for the housing plan first, the encouragement of BRS, measures to boost thermal renovation, the development of intermediate housing as we said earlier, which is a good thing, the strengthening of dialogue between the state and dense cities, and a small question actually about 40, 50... Croisiers, so it's still a subject. But a small question because there is something that seems to have reached consensus at the level of the CNR: it's the question of regulating land prices.
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Charlotte45:49
There is still something to reflect on around land prices, at least look at how they evolve, maybe have the means to ask questions about the most basic things. Because people tell me, 'Don't worry, land prices will go down.' That's a real interesting economic problem. Will the price of land, which is a rare good that will become increasingly rare, go down? I think it won't go down. That's a good question. Some say, 'No, wait, land prices will go down.' So I don't know. It's a real interesting economic problem. Same on housing prices: why is there no affordable housing? Are there new economic models? Even your professions, we feel they are changing. We talk more and more about rehabilitation, renovating existing buildings, urban recycling, new constructive words. Since we talked about all these professions, your economic models are completely disrupted. That's the feeling, at least. For years now, the reality has accelerated. Yes, of course. But again, rehabilitation is easy to do? It depends on the price of land, it depends on the initial price. I can always renovate, I just need to be able to sell when I renovate. So everything depends on the price of land, which is an absolutely determining element. Because work prices are not going to drop; salaries won't drop, inputs won't drop, I think. So I recall that developers' margins are not at 25% in case there are still doubts or fantasies. We are around 5-6% today. So I don't see... We will search, but Sylvain, yesterday we said we must industrialize, that's it. Industrialization normally brings lower prices in all professions. So on that, we are looking at, we are looking at an operator who really came from tech and data, capable of producing modular housing. It was very beautiful too, including externally. It's really a two-room apartment inside the device when you enter. And it's off-site construction, it's perfect in terms of after-sales service because it has industrial quality. It's two months of construction, which is a lot for acceptance. I can't do that everywhere, I can't do that in a dense area. But really, there are places where we can do it. Honestly, I'll take you to see a building how we make them today. Véronique, it's modular; you wouldn't see it. And yesterday, we brought a mayor, we wanted to see his reaction. He told me, 'But I want it, actually, if it's...' He said, 'I want it, I'm really interested. Two months is much easier for me, a super clean construction site, etc. But I want to see.' He said, 'Okay, it's good, I want that for me.' So I think this is the beginning of the story. But I think we can immediately gain a few percentage points. When you see what I saw very concretely yesterday, it addresses two constraints that are often opposed: purchasing power, cost, and environmental impact, notably with problems of construction site acceptance, logistics problems. And in reality, it's virtuous on both sides. So it's good for the wallet because clearly there is an impact on purchasing power that is undeniable, really undeniable. That's what's impressive for me to see for the cost, and at the same time, it's good for the planet because we encourage the French, as we said at the conference yesterday, to do energy renovation work. We'll talk about that in a few moments. At the same time, we can only understand that some households on tight budgets cannot undertake the work. 2031, so it's really very high low-carbon. So there are paths. Frankly, I can have the blues and I do from time to time, but frankly, the salon we had yesterday with all those around us, I think the relationship with our ecosystem has changed. For example, we used to have suppliers who did things. Today, we build this salon with partners; we don't just buy things from them. They work with us, they hear what we need, they are working with us on renovation. Yesterday, we obviously had all the technical teams for new housing, but I also had all the technical teams for syndics and management who came to see. Finally, institutional investors who were there, you had Anne-Sophie Grave who was present, the President and CEO of Celia Habitat, and Fabrice... It's France, after all, French schools produce the most Nobel prizes in the world. And we are in an emergency, so the French will have to think and quickly find solutions to all these environmental problems. Yesterday, as a journalist and observer of this real estate sphere, all the solutions were there. In fact, there are things. It's the second year we do it. It's extremely well defined. And you highlighted the commitment of industrialists to have collective thinking. You have made disciplines that did not speak to each other porous. And I believe your salon has this virtue: bringing together disciplines that did not meet. There is a real commitment. We are always stronger when we are together. And yesterday, I said to myself, 'Well, there are solutions.' I was really very proud of what we presented to everyone. We were fighting for it. But is your next battle horse going to be the 2020 finance bill? Because that's also the moment when the profession can influence favorable measures for households. It's also texts. The zero-interest loan, I think the federations have started this work. For once, the federations are in Parliament, they have started this work. I think honestly, for all parliamentarians, the work of the CNR is available. There was a lot of work. We may not agree with all the solutions. Frankly, the CNR was very pleasant. We were... but I want to say it, because fundamentally, it was a collective work. We saw people arrive. We said the CNR had at least one virtue: it had that. I think the reaction of Christophe the next morning was to tell me, 'Véronique, there was such force, there were so many committed actors, and it was very impressive.' It's been 7 years that I've been in this sector. There are people I discovered, committed people. And everyone was even ready to find compromises. Imagine, at the point of consensus we were at to move things forward, we were even capable of presenting several solutions, saying we don't know which is the best, but we really need to go for it. And what a shame not to have used this force. It's a committed civil society. You know the housing sector like me; people are passionate. There is a kind of energy. It's a sector that is transforming, that really works. What a shame, quite simply. If we also have to move on to our subject, we mention the usury rate but also the subjects of energy renovation in the melting pot of real estate. Clearly, the usury rate and the vacillations, as I will borrow from my friend Virginie earlier, the vacillations of the HCSF are inexplicable. But I don't have a reputation for being necessarily very moderate. I would like us to talk again and feel things a little. We have the impression, Virginie, that the government ultimately does not intend to change the decisions of the HCSF. In short, we will always stay on this norm, especially.
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Virginie Grelot55:15
The question is not at the level of the HCSF. The question is at the level of the cost of bank financing. We are not there yet. There was another small tightening by the ECB: plus 0.25%. So while rates were stable around 3%, usury revised monthly until the end of the year, since this micro-relaxation of nothing for investors went from 4 to 6% of total production. That's a few tens of thousands of operations, but it's peanuts. The problem is not the debt constraints or anything else. That's really secondary to me. I hear it, but as long as banks are not comfortable lending with everything that suits them, that covers the risk, HCSF or not, nothing will happen. So we clearly see that we are there. So there won't be any, frankly. The HCSF is a bit mistaken. So what happens before then? In that case, how does it work if we have a policy of Touba? Ultimately, aren't banks facing the same difficulties? What makes it so that today we have policies? Now, what has changed is that they look not only at the financing capacity, the type of property, the travel, they ask questions they didn't ask before. That has completely changed. The only good news I find for first-time buyers, we were talking about new generations, for now it's the drop in real estate prices. It was time. Prices have doubled. That's very important because some are not happy about it, but if you don't have a donation, if you don't have a personal contribution, if you don't have the help of parents, how do you do it? Real estate markets, and I think Véronique Bédague will confirm that whether it's office, retail, logistics, residential in all its forms and all these declinations, we have lived almost a decade of liquidity at all costs. There was money to finance everything. Banks were less 40, but the level of risk was relatively moderate, and above all, the cost was limited. We are no longer in that context at all. The change is very brutal. In 18 months, it's four times more expensive. So the drop in household debt capacity is very hard, and even more because we have that limit, HCSF, it's a whole context.
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Sylvain Levivalency56:14
So what happens before then? In that case, how does it work if we have a policy of Touba? Ultimately, aren't banks facing the same difficulties? What makes it so that today we have policies?
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Virginie Grelot56:25
Now, what has changed is that they look not only at the financing capacity, the type of property, the travel, they ask questions they didn't ask before. That has completely changed. The only good news I find for first-time buyers, we were talking about new generations, for now it's the drop in real estate prices. It was time. Prices have doubled. That's very important because some are not happy about it, but if you don't have a donation, if you don't have a personal contribution, if you don't have the help of parents, how do you do it? Real estate markets, and I think Véronique Bédague will confirm that whether it's office, retail, logistics, residential in all its forms and all these declinations, we have lived almost a decade of liquidity at all costs. There was money to finance everything. Banks were less 40, but the level of risk was relatively moderate, and above all, the cost was limited. We are no longer in that context at all. The change is very brutal. In 18 months, it's four times more expensive. So the drop in household debt capacity is very hard, and even more because we have that limit, HCSF, it's a whole context.
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Sylvain Levivalency57:41
So to conclude, there is this subject, we obviously react to the subject, but I would like us not to leave before the weather report of Limoux also on the subject of my renovation bonus and the energy renovation. It's a real subject. Véronique Bédague, a reaction to what was said?
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Véronique Bédague58:00
On real estate prices, I've been saying for a while now that in any case, real estate prices in the old market will mechanically decrease due to the influx of thermal sieves that can no longer be rented. I remind you that today, when you put a property considered thermally inefficient up for sale, the price reductions, depending on location, remain very important, but we are between 5 and 15% anyway. So that alone, the entry of these properties onto the market, will mechanically lower the market a bit. At the same time, I said when a property is very well located, the prices are not astronomical. Again, we are in a market where there is not enough supply. You can imagine that someone who is a homeowner today, even if they think about selling and buying back, they think three minutes before abandoning a loan at 1% to go back to a loan at 4%. It's logical. So there is a sort of retention, and the market is regulating itself by volumes. There will be a little regulation by prices, but the essential part of the market regulates by volumes. And then we have a market that has completely shifted. If we talk about rental now, to find an unfurnished rental for a 3-year lease, we have gone from investment in any case from unfurnished rental to furnished rental, now from Airbnb rental or seasonal tourist rental. We see the drama it creates. We mentioned earlier the difficulty of finding housing even for students. Something is happening. Should we reconsider the entire taxation on rental? For once, I had the impression, maybe it's my naturally optimistic mind, but it was what Elisabeth Borne said: we need to review, and several times people said, 'Yes, you're right, we need to rework these subjects because all of this no longer works.' So I remain reasonably optimistic. I tell myself that if a real governmental work is done with all the ministers around the table, we should be able to achieve something. And the idea is to make rental investment profitable again, regardless of the subject. For now, it's true that it's much more profitable and easier to rent on Airbnb than to rent to a family. We're walking on our heads. It's time to move on to the weather report of Limoux. We will also give a word on energy renovation since we will address this subject of my renovation bonus. I announce that in the measures in addition to what Charlotte told us, the multiplication of counters, the additional means in the system of energy renovation, it's 200,000 renovations as an objective with a budget that will eventually make the aid more readable, and to go from 2,000 to 5,000 renovation advisors. This leaves a skeptical impression, notably Karine Olivier, it left her skeptical. Since ultimately, those who are most capable and for good reason, to accompany in the renovation of condominiums, are the condominium syndics themselves. I suggest that we immediately move on to the weather report of Limoux, the real estate weather report by Bien'ici.
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Sylvain Levivalency1:01:06
How are you, my dear Philippe? Very well, and you, Sylvain? Great, when I see you, everything is fine. You're going to give us the weather. It's hot outside. The weather report of Limoux, Philippe de Lunéville, the Deputy General Manager of Bien'ici, in charge of marketing and data. What's the weather like outside?
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Philippe de Lunéville1:01:23
Yes, so as every month, we'll do a little update on our vision of the real estate market seen from Bien'ici, from our portal. So a global overview. We are already in June, well advanced. We've already talked about it before. The market is relatively calm since the beginning of the year. Nothing moves, especially in transactions. The same trends: the number of ads continues to increase on the site, +7% compared to last month, up to 45% compared to last year. So agencies are rebuilding their portfolios. Demand is still wait-and-see, slightly down compared to last year. There are more properties, so people take their time. I've already said that several times. It's still the case. There is something new, however, on rental. Because on rental, last year, a decrease in the number of ads, a very strong increase, explosion in demand, a rebound effect from what we said earlier about the rise in rates. People stay on rental, look more for rental. So a very active market. It's a bit different at the beginning of the year. Demand stopped increasing, ads continue to decrease. And in fact, we find that it's an indirect effect: people move less, buy less, so move less from their rental. And landlords tell us, exits from rental are weaker and weaker. So that's quite new. We had Parcoursup on June 1st, which normally is the time when the real estate market for students, the small apartments, used to start. For now, it remains calm. So we always have a fairly uncertain, changeable weather in real estate, and we still have difficulty projecting ourselves. So we said, let's look at ancillary markets. What do we see on the house and apartment market, which is the main market? Do we see it on the ancillary market? We looked at parking spaces and boxes. So, are the trends the same? Does it experience the same conjuncture? So some figures on parking spaces and boxes: roughly, it's a small part of the market, 1.5% of our ads. So it's a small share. It's a fairly balanced market between second-hand and sales: about 40% on sales and 60% on rentals. And obviously a market that is very urban: urban areas, city centers, with large cities representing the majority of supply. Then, in terms of prices, the advertised price for a parking space or box is around 25,000 euros, with disparities. Some cities are higher, notably Nice, which we find with almost 10,000 euros more. And rental is around 83 euros per parking space and per box, which gives a gross yield roughly equivalent to a classic apartment. So the question: is it a good investment to invest in parking spaces and boxes? One sense, yes, why? Because rental prices increase faster than sales prices, and that's quite unprecedented and very different from what happens with apartments. So we have a profitability that increases over time on parking spaces and boxes, despite the fact that in cities mainly there is a drastic reduction in the number of cars. Several things: in cities, there is a need for more and more parking spaces because there is also the legislation on parking. Now in Paris, for example, two-wheelers must pay for parking. I know something about it; I got three fines the first weeks. And then to continue, it shifts the market. That is, today, in city centers, there are issues with parking and fewer cars, but in suburbs or TGV cities, there will be demand around stations. So in conclusion, it seems that it's a rather calmer territory where the weather is a bit calmer. Parking, we see more visibility on both demand and supply, and a little less regulation. The DPE on a parking space but which will have to make its energy transition anyway because the arrival of electric vehicles will force all owners to equip with charging stations. Absolutely. It's even a preferred asset class for small investors. There was even a site called Mister Parking specialized in the subject.
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Sylvain Levivalency1:06:38
We will soon leave, but I wanted to talk about the issue of Le Point in which you take Parisian prices, notably with a study you conducted. Earlier, before going on air with Véronique Bédague, we looked at things and finally, Véronique had almost an invisible border between East and West since there is a color code from the lowest at less than 8,900 euros to bright red at more than 12,900 euros. It's in the June issue of Le Point. Bruno, a few comments?
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Bruno Manie Minard1:07:15
We have the impression that Paris gradually, it both goes down but we see that the Parisian east-west border remains invisible. It's interesting to map Paris in color; we really realize much more the disparities. We see this crescent: 19th, 20th, 12th, and we go down to 13th, 14th where prices are at the beginning of the scale. And then all the West, it's not a scoop, but with the 16th, 17th, the 15th is a little in between, etc. What else do we see? This is something recurrent: in fact, to know how much an apartment costs in Paris, it's quite easy. You go have a coffee at the counter downstairs and you'll already get a little idea. And then if you go up, in my early years of investigation, if you go up metro stations from the edges of the ring road to the center, you add between 500 and 700 euros roughly per metro station. It doesn't work in the 16th, but it works everywhere else. And you get roughly your figure. No, what we see is that there are untouchable neighborhoods: Invalides, Opéra, Châtelet, Panthéon, Étoile, part of the 16th of course, Parc Monceau, for the Marais, it's red. The Marais is also red. The Marais has become expensive. There are still some contrasts in the 9th arrondissement, which is a gentrifying neighborhood. We are between Pigalle and Rochechouart, so obviously. And then globally on Paris, there is a price drop of about 5% that is noted everywhere, except on exceptional properties. When we say a drop, always be careful with percentages because a 5% drop is actually a mini-mini correction. You know, in 20 years, how much have Parisian arrondissements increased? Between the one that increased the least and the one that increased the most, between 200 and 320%. In 20 years. And now we drop by 5%. So people think it's a big deal, but no, it's just a correction. It's the beginning of saying something is happening, a new story. For those who bought at the high, if they don't sell for 10 years, they are still safe. But if it goes down as you say with an inversion, the wake-up call will be harsh. The problem in Paris is that compared to... they made 300% capital gains. We talk a lot about people who can't find housing, but we don't talk about people who made huge capital gains and who today will be forced to take a hit, not out of goodness of heart or philanthropy, but because mechanically people can no longer afford it. You said it, there are structural reasons and conjunctural factors that have been added to that, which make it so that people can no longer go there. Thank you very much.
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Sylvain Levivalency1:10:38
Thank you very much. That was for the real estate weather report. It's time to conclude our show. It went well, Véronique Bédague? Very well, thank you. We were delighted to have you on the set. Véronique Bédague, I remind you that you are the Chairwoman and CEO of the Nexity group. Thank you also to Charlotte Tequin, our producer, who will join us shortly. Thank you, Philippe de Lunéville, and good health to you. And Bien'ici, since I remind you that when you hear 'record', you are the third French portal. So there you go, Bien'ici. Thank you once again. Thank you to Bruno, Bruno Monnier-Vinard, journalist at Le Point. Thank you to Virginie Grelot, journalist at Challenges. And thank you, my partner. We cross the cities of France; we go to Angoulême next week, absolutely, with Olivier Marin, editor-in-chief of Figaro Immobilier. Thank you also to the teams: Théo, Jason, Bâtisse. Thank you also to your teams, Véronique, who are listening to us: Anne, Maxime, Nicolas, Cyril. It's always a pleasure to work with you. Until then, take care of yourselves. We'll meet again since it's our last episode before the back-to-school. Yes, in September, I think we'll have a lot to say. Take care of yourselves. It's very hot again. And long live housing, and especially long live the young people who can't find a job, a school, and housing at the same time. That's the fight we will lead. To everyone, good evening.