Unicredit batte le attese e alza la guidance. Intervista esclusiva a Andrea Orcel

Thank you. I think it's fair to say, without a doubt, with our people. We have a clear strategy, clear objectives, everyone believes in them, and every quarter they even surprise me with what they are capable of doing. In Italy we gained one point of market share in the corporate segment, more than one point in some retail segments that interest us. So the machine is running at full speed, the people are absolutely focused, we are very, very happy with the results. The 11.5 billion net profit forecast for this year is more than the market expected, even in the presence of a difficult international economic environment looking ahead. The war is still ongoing, doesn't that worry you? Ah, of course it worries us. That said, since the invasion of Ukraine we have continued to say that in this new world we need to be much more agile, much faster, adjust many more times, and that we needed to move from a top-down hierarchical model, let's call it, to a much more empowered model, with trust in our people, in the teams that execute every day. This may seem like just words, but they allow our people to adjust to what is happening very, very quickly. So, if you look at this quarter, our fees and insurance results rose 14%, while the net interest margin increased only 2% sequentially. We expect that with the rate increase in the second half, this dynamic will change with a greater increase in the margin part and with fees that are still strong but not at these levels. These financial adjustments are the result of an adjustment that each team makes in the seven regions of Italy that are our reference in all our countries.

But let's say that unlike many other countries, Germany has a different offer structure than what we have in Italy, that is, you first make the offer and then obtain all the authorizations, instead of the opposite. So now we are in a situation where we are waiting for authorizations from the European Central Bank and the European Union and various others, and this will probably take us to the end of the year. We believe that maybe by the end of the year we can close it. This period is an excellent period to have a dialogue with the German government, to have a dialogue with the workers' representatives of Commerzbank, and to reach those agreements that we would have liked to have earlier, but perhaps now is the best time to achieve them.

But then in my opinion there are two factors. The first factor is that even though the price of Commerzbank already included a speculative or M&A premium component, which according to us was 20%, so the premium was there. Second, in the end we didn't pay in cash, we paid in shares, so investors looked at the relative value of the two shares and in the case of UniCredit, how much this relative value could improve further if UniCredit gained control. On this basis, they spoke, they gave us many more shares than we thought, and for us the result is very unexpected because if we exclude the German retail that had and has 15% of the bank, the German government that has 12%, we are at 27%, the passive holders who cannot sell, who have another 17%, there was very little left to obtain a tender, and we achieved it. So

For the moment, we have said it more than once, we are observers. Why are we observers? Because we have worked very hard on the foundations of our Italian franchise and that of the rest of the group. Last year we said, after BPM, look, we will have a growth plan and bring together all the pieces to achieve it. The machine is running at full speed, as I said, we have gained more than 1% market share in the corporate segment in the first 6 months. We expect our goal of gaining one point of market share in 3 years could become almost three points of share in 4-5 years. So, if the organic growth is going so well, if we can almost gain as much as half of one of these medium-sized banks organically and generate much more value for our shareholders, why not? So we observe, I remind you that we are very, very proud to be a bank with Italian roots, but now more than ever we are pan-European. Italy weighs or will weigh 33% of the group, 33% Germany, 33% CEE and Austria. So we play in a somewhat pan-European league, not just an Italian league, and that is what makes the difference for us. Maybe you have ambitious goals, but here the competition could change. For example, the branches of MPS together with those of BPER could create, they say, the second Italian bank. It is a prospect that could impact your plans. You...

But we have never approached the game with a point of view of who is the biggest, who is the smallest. We have always approached the game based on who can create more value for shareholders, for our people, for our clients over time. I believe that whoever does this wins, so if you want, it's more quality than quantity, and at this moment we think we are winning that game, and with what is happening we could accelerate this value creation. So if everything remains as is, we are very happy to observe.

We are observing because the environment is moving, and therefore based on that we will make our decisions.

But I believe that all colleagues should go celebrate the success they have achieved and take a little vacation. For me, it is normally the time when I can read all the things and refocus on the group's priorities, and I enjoy doing it.

Thank you.