We're gaining market share on our own, but we're just spectators of the game of risk. We'll evaluate Generali based on developments: Andrea Orcel tells Class CNBC about UniCredit's numbers and prospects after the bank closed a record six-month period with net profits reaching €6.3 billion. Interview with director Andrea Cabrini.
What Andrea Orcel said
Written from the verified transcript and checked against it. Every figure links to the moment it was said.
Andrea Orcel said UniCredit's strong second-quarter results came from its people and a clear strategy, with market share gains of one point in Italian corporate banking and more in some retail segments. He raised the full-year net profit forecast to 11.5 billion euros, above market expectations, despite a difficult international environment. Fees and insurance rose 14% while net interest margin grew only 2% sequentially, expecting the dynamic to shift with rate increases. On Commerzbank, he said the offer is now strategic, awaiting ECB and EU authorizations, possibly closing by year-end, and he will negotiate on SME financing, internationalization support, and social implications. He noted the 48% stake was achieved because the offer was in shares, not cash, and investors saw relative value. On MPS, he remains an observer, citing strong organic growth that could nearly triple market share gains. He also said Generali remains a financial investment.
Key takeaways
UniCredit raised full-year net profit forecast to 11.5 billion euros, above market expectations.
Commerzbank deal is strategic, awaiting ECB and EU authorizations, possibly closing by end of year.
UniCredit achieved 48% stake in Commerzbank by offering shares, not cash, and investors saw relative value.
Organic growth could deliver almost three points of market share in 4-5 years, versus one point in 3 years.
Italy will weigh 33% of the group, with Germany and CEE/Austria each also 33%.
UniCredit beats estimates on second-quarter net profit and raises full-year net profit outlook. We are discussing this with Andrea Orcel, thank you for joining us. First of all, how did you achieve these results?
Thank you. I think it's fair to say, without a doubt, with our people. We have a clear strategy, clear objectives, everyone believes in them, and every quarter they even surprise me with what they are capable of doing. In Italy we gained one point of market share in the corporate segment, more than one point in some retail segments that interest us. So the machine is running at full speed, the people are absolutely focused, we are very, very happy with the results. The 11.5 billion net profit forecast for this year is more than the market expected, even in the presence of a difficult international economic environment looking ahead. The war is still ongoing, doesn't that worry you? Ah, of course it worries us. That said, since the invasion of Ukraine we have continued to say that in this new world we need to be much more agile, much faster, adjust many more times, and that we needed to move from a top-down hierarchical model, let's call it, to a much more empowered model, with trust in our people, in the teams that execute every day. This may seem like just words, but they allow our people to adjust to what is happening very, very quickly. So, if you look at this quarter, our fees and insurance results rose 14%, while the net interest margin increased only 2% sequentially. We expect that with the rate increase in the second half, this dynamic will change with a greater increase in the margin part and with fees that are still strong but not at these levels. These financial adjustments are the result of an adjustment that each team makes in the seven regions of Italy that are our reference in all our countries.
Meanwhile, there has been a turning point in Germany, Chancellor Merz has opened dialogue with you. What will be the next steps of an operation that you now define as strategic, no longer just a financial investment?
But let's say that unlike many other countries, Germany has a different offer structure than what we have in Italy, that is, you first make the offer and then obtain all the authorizations, instead of the opposite. So now we are in a situation where we are waiting for authorizations from the European Central Bank and the European Union and various others, and this will probably take us to the end of the year. We believe that maybe by the end of the year we can close it. This period is an excellent period to have a dialogue with the German government, to have a dialogue with the workers' representatives of Commerzbank, and to reach those agreements that we would have liked to have earlier, but perhaps now is the best time to achieve them.
What will you negotiate on? Guarantee of financing to SMEs in Germany, headquarters, listed shares. But at this moment, not having spoken directly with them, I can only speculate. What one reads in the newspapers does not surprise me, and therefore the commitment to small and medium-sized German enterprises, their support for internationalization, the social implications, probably, as in all countries, they will want to ensure that there is no desertification of certain areas of the country. All things that are achievable for us. How did you achieve this 48% on the market with an offer that was initially met with skepticism, but in the end you brought it home?
But then in my opinion there are two factors. The first factor is that even though the price of Commerzbank already included a speculative or M&A premium component, which according to us was 20%, so the premium was there. Second, in the end we didn't pay in cash, we paid in shares, so investors looked at the relative value of the two shares and in the case of UniCredit, how much this relative value could improve further if UniCredit gained control. On this basis, they spoke, they gave us many more shares than we thought, and for us the result is very unexpected because if we exclude the German retail that had and has 15% of the bank, the German government that has 12%, we are at 27%, the passive holders who cannot sell, who have another 17%, there was very little left to obtain a tender, and we achieved it. So
Orcel, A. (2026, July 24). Unicredit batte le attese e alza la guidance. Intervista esclusiva a Andrea Orcel [Interview transcript]. Class CNBC. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/1117460/
MLA
Andrea Orcel. "Unicredit batte le attese e alza la guidance. Intervista esclusiva a Andrea Orcel." Class CNBC, 24 Jul. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/1117460/.
BibTeX
@misc{orcel2026_1117460,
author = {Andrea Orcel},
title = {Unicredit batte le attese e alza la guidance. Intervista esclusiva a Andrea Orcel},
howpublished = {Interview transcript, Class CNBC. CEOInterviews.AI},
year = {2026},
month = {jul},
url = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/1117460/},
note = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}
