Thank you for being with us one more year. The truth is that this WUP Spain has caught us at a moment that could not be more exciting in terms of information, and yet so uncertain, not so much for companies, for administrations, for society, as is this context of tariff war. If I'm not mistaken, you have been in Mexico these days talking to businessmen about global risks. I can't think of a greater global risk perhaps than a trade war started by the world's leading power. How do you see this situation? How can the Trump effect affect business?
Well, undoubtedly it is an effect, some events that could be anticipated in a certain way, but not in the way they have presented themselves these days, and they are really serious. Indeed, I come from Mexico, I have held meetings there and participated in some public debates precisely talking about these issues. Well, the unanimous conclusion is that this benefits no one in the world, no one, and that sooner or later the US administration will realize that it is shooting itself in the foot. It is not about slowing down growth at a time when expectations were quite positive, estimating global growth around 3%, controlled inflation around 4%, which although high globally, could be manageable. And now uncertainties are total. I believe that the critical elements are industrial policies. Now companies, especially those that were in vogue with nearshoring in friendly countries of the United States, cease to be so and are rethinking their policies. The financial and insurance sector, I think we will be collateral victims if this worsens. In any case, in Mapfre's situation, we are a solid, diversified group with a good presence in many different markets, and in a certain way, those policies will not affect us directly. To the extent that growth slows, inflation rises, and obviously savings increase due to lack of confidence from consumers and companies to make more investments and spending, that will affect us. But we must be optimistic. I think the world is very large, there are other very powerful regions in the world with the possibility of growing, such as Latin America and Europe itself. We are 450 million inhabitants, 700 in Latin America. In Asia we also have many possibilities to do things. We must not limit ourselves and see the world only through the eyes of the United States. We can have commercial and development options with specific treaties such as Mercosur or others that can be developed from Europe, which we must contemplate with an optimistic vision.
Yes, precisely I wanted to ask you about that optimism. One of the messages we have extracted these days at WUP Spain is the need for more Europe, greater integration of the 27. I don't know, how do you see this point? Should we take advantage now to unite more?
Well, absolutely necessary. That 'more Europe' is a slogan that practically everyone would assume, especially seeing the current circumstances. But that 'more Europe' must be done in a different way than we are contemplating. We cannot build a Europe based on the rigor of an excess of regulation, supervision, costs. In a way, we are paying our own penalties. That is, there were already implicit tariffs in Europe with all the overcompliance, regulation, the excesses of that bureaucracy that make producing in Europe, distributing in Europe, and serving Europe more expensive than in other areas of the world. And I think that is not justified at all. It is a great opportunity to do another 'wake-up call' in Europe. That is, Europe wakes up and does things differently. European Union, yes, but not in the way we were doing it. We need a true European treaty that allows us to be a single country for commercial purposes, with good integrated regulatory legislation that allows no differences and allows us to grow within the European region without the obstacles, the brakes imposed in many cases by the excess of regulation we are experiencing, which we are complying with, but which in a certain way makes us lose a lot of competitiveness in other regions of the world.
Well, speaking of those opportunities, maybe we are lucky and someone from the government is listening to us. I don't know if you want to make any suggestion about any change we could implement in Spain, in the Spanish economy, to be more competitive, taking advantage of the context.
Well, I think the call is both to the government and to all parties that have options to be government. Nothing is achieved by each one staying in their positions without getting closer. I believe that at these times, what is most required is that there be state pacts between the main political, union, and social forces so that we can move forward. When there is more distrust, when we can see more difficulties in the environment, that is precisely when those high-minded views are most necessary to be able to do things differently. Let's not stay in one position or another, but let's get closer. I know it's not easy, and obviously the effort required is extraordinary in many cases, but it's time. We have to think about the citizens, we have to think about economic development, and we have to think about support fundamentally for the private sector, which is the one that will be able to offer solutions and support to continue creating employment and give a little more oxygen to economic growth. If not, we will slow down, and this is not the time. Spain is in a magnificent situation to continue leveraging its strengths. Its companies are solid, its financial sector is very robust, and today we are one of the most desired countries in the world, both for exporting and for receiving investment, and of course also visitors.
Well, we keep those messages, but let's talk a little about the insurance business. The truth is that Mapfre comes from 2024 marking a historic year in results. What can we expect in 2025?
Well, more of the same and better, I think. But with uncertainties like the ones we are contemplating, one might think, 'Is this guy a little confused?' No, I think the insurance sector, fundamentally, as everyone knows, always works with a long-term vision. We always work with investments that are already developed, thinking not about the immediate future but about 10, 15, 20, 30 years, and that makes us very reliable. Generally, it is true that we always need some predictability. To the extent that the scenarios we manage have to have a central scenario towards which we usually move when we reposition our investments, when we decide to make new acquisitions or develop new products and services. We are very diversified, so being in Europe, the United States, all of Latin America, even Asia, the truth is that that natural hedge, which is the compensation of one business with another in so many lines, life, non-life, all types of products, being the largest Spanish insurer in the world, gives us a lot of comfort thinking that we continue to have positive plans to grow and continue improving profitability. I think that is why 2025 and beyond will continue to be good, because the expectations regarding our activity will be so. To the extent that economic growth slows, that will penalize us, but we have levers and mechanisms to compensate with other types of income and activities for our development. So, optimistic view.
