Welcome back. You're still tuning into Market Fatafat right here on ET Now and understanding how it's to be a soft Monday for Indian equity markets. Nifty is now sitting with a cut of about three-tenths of a percent as we speak and we've given up all of those morning gains. Nifty Bank, that index in fact is down more than one, nearly 1% in trade today.
In terms of individual sectors on the losing side, we have a couple of FMCG stocks which are under pressure today. We have something like Dabur, that stock is down 3 and a half percent. Colgate, Tata Consumer Products, HUL, all of them have been declining in trade today. But let's put the spotlight on the auto sector. Nifty Auto index is also sitting with a cut of 1%.
It's the first day of the month, which means we have auto sales data which have already started trickling in. And so far, Hyundai, that company has missed street expectations. But on the flip side from the passenger vehicle segment, we have Tata Motors PV, M&M, all of them have reported strong growth. In fact, M&M Auto has reported growth of about 18% on a year-on-year basis. Maruti has reported a strong growth of about 35% on a year-on-year basis in the month of April.
But let's delve deeper into this. We now have Vijay Nakra, President Farm Equipment Business, Mahindra & Mahindra, who's now joining us. Mr. Nakra, afternoon. Thank you so much for joining us today. And first up, let's talk about the domestic tractor sales because that has risen by about 23% in the month of May while you had guided for 5% industry growth. Is it time to revise your guidance upward?
Medium single digit industry growth that we had put out earlier was for the full year. Whereas the 23% growth is for the month of May. Think we are aware that there are certain headwinds on the horizon, as well as the second half of last year had a very, very strong performance with over a 30% growth. So, I think we still hold on to our view that for the year the average growth would be medium single digit.
But quarter one for the year will be a very strong performance. And we had said that even earlier that quarter one comes from a low base effect of last year. A lot of the headwinds that we see coming in into this year have still not played out. A lot of benefit of the structural change in GST has flowed into the first quarter of this financial year. So, I think there are a lot of positives that have played out in the first quarter of the year, including very strong cash flow in the hands of farmers because of the Rabi harvest, strong summer crop which is 3% up over last year. Reservoir levels are strong. So, quarter one was expected to be a very strong performance.
There's also talk about Rabi harvesting which drove the growth for the month of May, but El Niño risk kicks in for the period August to September. That's the second and third quarter. How much of this momentum is seasonal and how sustainable is it as we head into Kharif season?
I think we'll have to wait and see what happens or what is the effect of El Niño. I just wanted to share some data points with you. That, you know, if you look at the last almost 50 years, we've had 16 El Niño years. And out of that there were only 11 where we had seen an impact of El Niño on the tractor industry. So, I think there are multiple other variables that play out which determine the impact of El Niño. So, I think we need to wait and watch. You know, it includes what is the rainfall distribution, what is the timing, which are the affected areas of El Niño, how does the Indian Ocean Dipole play out. So, I think some of these factors are yet to be seen the impact of what happens.
Also, I think the government has sort of preempted the impact of El Niño and they've taken significant measures. For example, the 40,000 crores plus of subsidy to contain the input cost of inflation for farmers on fertilizers through the subsidy, the availability of seeds to address weather change patterns, crop diversification, early announcement of MSP on 14 Kharif crops so that the farmers align on sowing those as crops, especially given that these crops have been chosen keeping the weather pattern in mind. So, I think we have to see the effect of all of this to play out before we can really sort of determine that El Niño's impact is going to be severe for the year. But we do keep that in mind that yes, El Niño is a kind of a headwind that the industry will face.
And hence, we are saying that quarter one will be very, very strong, which is where in any case 40% of the industry sale happens. Till July, rather. Till July, about 40% of industry sale happens. And then the El Niño impact is going to start coming in in the second half and we will need to see how that plays out especially given that a lot of measures have been taken to sort of contain the impact of El Niño.
Understood. So, that's as far as the forecast for the upcoming monsoon season is concerned and what kind of impact is it likely to have on your operations. But let's also talk about exports then, and that saw a growth of just about 7% in the month of May. You are present in three international markets, US, Brazil and Turkey, which are still seeing some bit of slowdown. When do you expect them to recover and what kind of outlook do you have when it comes to export market?
So, firstly out of the three, it's more the US and Turkey which have seen significant impact. I think the US market on a full year financial basis last year had a decline of about 6 and a half percent. Our understanding, well, April was and our understanding May is also a little slow. Turkey has seen far more significant impact to the tune of 40% reduction in the industry and that still continues in this year. Brazil on the other hand has not been as impacted as compared to these two markets. We continue to do well and gain share compared to the previous year in these markets. So, I think we're going to have to see how the year plays out.
I think we've got significantly higher confidence in terms of the overall industry in Brazil will probably play out stronger, but we yet need to see US and Turkey specifically. But as I mentioned, we are gaining share there even in a situation where the market has de-grown and we clearly have our actions in place on what we intend to do to consolidate our positions in these markets in FY27.
