So Anthony, your new book focuses on the failings on both sides of the political aisle. Do you think the Democrats right now are good enough at recognizing their own failings, or are they spending so much time and energy being outraged by Trump and really just blaming him?
Well, it's so interesting you say that because I told Martin Wolf at the FT that the person that controls the Democratic party is Donald J. Trump. And if you just look at it from the way I look at it, he triggers them. He has splintered them. He understands the culture war better than they do and they respond to him in a very poor way. And so the Graham Platner would be an example of that in Maine. They've got this super flawed candidate that they think is a MAGAite but progressive socialist, that sort of thing. And they're going too far to the left for the American people. And when I go on these left-leaning political punditry shows, they explain to me that they just aren't further to the left enough. They're searching for a pure form of socialism or a pure form of communism. It's just not going to work in this country. So, if they head in that direction, I predict they'll lose the 2028 presidential election. I mean, they're going to likely win the House in the midterms. I think it'll be a toss-up in the Senate, but more than likely they'll lose the Senate. But yes, you know, Trump has driven them crazy. I mean, he's by the way, he's driving all of us crazy. I mean, he's terrible for everything but the podcast business, apparently, but he's just driving everybody crazy, but them in particular, he's got them completely nuts.
Now, the title of your book, Anthony, is All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions and Years of a word I can't say on the radio politics led to Trump. What were briefly those three catastrophic decisions?
Well, you know, I don't think I think the uniqueness of the book is that no one's really linked these decisions, but I think when you see them, there are three very big dominoes that led to the rise of populism. So, the first one obviously is the World Trade Organization introduction of the Chinese. This is something President Clinton wanted to do. It was contentious at the time, which I write about. They come in and they come in as an emerging market. So they're unfettered in terms of their ability to protect their markets and to send their goods to the West, including the UK. Unfettered. The second big thing for the United States is we go to war with a tax cut. You know, Bush cuts taxes in March of 2001. We're at war in October because of 9/11. Two devastating protracted wars with a tax cut sends the deficit to the moon. And then the third thing is when we had the bailout, which I'll give plaudits and credit to Prime Minister Gordon Brown for coming up with the TARP idea, we use that idea. We actually imported from the United Kingdom, but we give all the money to the banks. We give no money to the lower middle income people. No mortgage relief, no credit card relief, no rent relief. And this causes a tremendous amount of anger in the country. And here we are 18 or so years out from that last big mistake and we're in a full-on K economy where maybe a third of the country is doing well, two-thirds of the country feels left out or economically desperate. And so I write in the book what happened, how it happened, and it's sort of a money point of view of history as opposed to just politics. If you follow the money in the United States, where the money has always been very important in this country, if you follow the money, you can see where we've gone to get ourselves into the current trap that we're in. And then, of course, I write a little bit about how we can take ourselves out of this. If we can, you know, end a little bit of the tribalism, we would have to end something called Citizens United. And we'd also have to figure out a way to make the gerrymandering a little bit fairer.
I think it's really interesting the money point of view of history. I mean it isn't an often taken position. Do you think that's because people find it uncomfortable to take it from a money perspective?
Exactly. Exactly right. I mean I would say that's true on both sides of the Atlantic. The US finds it uncomfortable. I think the Brits find it uncomfortable. I think it's an unfortunate fact. Calvin Coolidge once said that the business of America is business. And I think you have to understand that about America. And I think what we have found and I write about this in the book when you have a distribution of economic rent that would be the profits coming out of the companies large and small. When it's fair between capital and labor, you have a pretty healthy society. But when it gets overly skewed towards capital and labor feels left out, and I don't just mean labor like a factory worker. I'm talking about somebody that doesn't own their own business. This could be a white collar person working in a law firm or an accounting firm or you know people that don't own the businesses that they're working for. The splits particularly here in the US have gone up about 25% towards capital away from labor and I think that has caused a tremendous amount of economic anxiety in the country and when you get that anxiety you get anger and you get the rise of people like Donald Trump, rise of anger-based populism. And of course you've heard this before but I'll share it. You have a horseshoe effect where the left-leaning populists sound very similar to the right-leaning populists on a lot of different strategies because they're trying to attract angry people. And I'll say this to you, you know, and it doesn't really reflect well on me, but I'm happy to share it. When I was working for Donald Trump, which was a mistake of mine, which I have to own the rest of my life, I used to go to Bernie Sanders rallies. Why did I do that? Because I wanted to see who was showing up. It turned out that many of the same people were showing up at Bernie Sanders rallies that showed up at Donald Trump rallies. Moreover, in 2016, Mr. Trump received a lot of the crossover votes from Bernie Sanders, which caused the demise of Secretary Clinton. So, it's a complicated thing, but I write about it. I try to let people into a window of a 35-year observation as a Wall Street analyst, a failed White House communications director, but also, you know, a political analyst, assessing this thing, not only just from the policies, but what were the economic impacts of those policies and how is it related to the disposable income of the average American.
It's really interesting you still refer to working for Donald Trump as a mistake, Anthony, because I've read you talk about two big mistakes in your life. Going to work for Donald Trump and investing in Sam Bankman-Fried's firm.
Well, actually he invested in my, those are two. But I have a phone book of mistakes. You don't have enough time on the radio for me to share with you all my mistakes. But go ahead.
That was a very long podcast. Mine too, by the way. But working for Donald Trump, albeit very briefly, did set you on a path to a new career, and you're now a very well-respected commentator. Can you still call it a mistake?
Well, you know, it's sweet of you to say, but I don't want to smooth over how painful that was in that period of my life. You know, Deirdre and I almost ended up in a divorce. Thank God we reconciled our marriage. People don't remember this, but I missed the birth of my son on the 24th of July in 2017. I was with the president at the Boy Scouts camp in West Virginia. That was a very painful period of my life. And so I don't like skimming things over. I feel like if you're going to be a political analyst, I think you have to be very honest with yourself and honest with the situation. So I don't want to pretend that it wasn't a mistake. I didn't see the arc of Donald Trump's political career going in this direction. Now, there are people I'm talking to you from Midtown Manhattan where my office is. There are people here in Manhattan that would say, 'Oh, well, you know, he was like this the whole way.' And I saw a mixed bag in the president. You know, I saw a guy that went to Elton John's wedding. I saw a guy that started out as a Democrat. And I thought at age 69 as he was ascending into the presidency, he would be more transformative and most part and postpartisan. And so, I got that very wrong. So, it would actually be an even bigger mistake for me to pretend that I didn't get it wrong in terms of going in that direction. But you are right. He did ironically provide for me a platform where I could advocate for a better America, a platform where I could advocate for a better relationship with our allies and to get people thinking about the better angels of our nature here in America as opposed to some of the things that he's doing. So, I am glad about that. Remember to your viewers and listeners, there is a silver lining in life. When you get knocked down, you can have some positive outcomes and the one you're suggesting is certainly one of those.
Well, I think it's really interesting that you've kind of made failure a part of your brand from how it looks outside anyway.
Failing upwards, you got to fail upwards. I think that's you got to tell your kids failing upwards is the key ingredient to being happy.
But it's a very American entrepreneurial kind of approach to failure that it's a crucial step on the road to success. I mean, do you think that's something that us kind of shame-filled Brits who, you know, gosh, we go and set ourselves on fire over failure, do you think we could learn something from the American approach to failure?
Well, listen, you have a phenomenal culture as well. I mean, we're different countries, of course. We have slightly different ways we speak English or American, however you want to say it, but I don't want to overly be critical of the Brits because you got...
You're very much an Anglophile these days, Anthony.
Listen, I am but I mean the feeling is mutual. I feel like it's reciprocated. You know, I love them, they love me. I mean it's a mutual affection. But I would just say relax on yourself. I think the number one thing when you're failing, don't play the victim. Be accountable. But the second thing is dust yourself off and recognize that there is an arc of recovery. And there's a learning experience that goes with failing. And I think you bring up entrepreneurship. I'm sitting in a firm talking to you that's 21 years old. We've had three or four really big things that have hurt us. But we've always managed to adapt and pull ourselves through over the 21 years that we've been in business here at SkyBridge. And I would just tell my friends in your country, you don't have to be shameful. It's okay. You know, in fact, if anything, I find that people respect the authenticity that comes with the accountability. And so that would be my message more than anything else. But I don't want to be too hard on you guys, though.
