Hello. Welcome back to Cointelegraph's Trade Secrets, our very own live show here at Cointelegraph. My name is Kieran. I'm your host today and I'm joined by Multicoin co-founder Kyle Samani. Kyle, how are you doing?
Hey, Kieran. Pleasure to be on the show. Thanks for having me back. It's been a little bit.
Where do you think we are in the crypto market right now? I mean, some people are starting to say that we're entering the early stages of a bull market again, and others aren't so sure that we're really out of the bear market yet. So what's your thoughts? Where do you think we are?
Um, I think the bottom is in and, uh, you know, again, like the tokenization cycle does continue. Obviously the Genius Act passed and stablecoins are growing. Um, all of the structural tailwinds are there. Um, and I think you're going to see an explosion of social trading and just new, more sophisticated ways to trade, um, all built on top of crypto rails. So I don't really see that slowing down. And I'd say at this point, it's pretty clear that there's been enough accumulation happening from enough long-term believers over the last call it six months, that it seems pretty unlikely that we're going to retest, you know, 60K for Bitcoin and whatever, $60 for Solana. I don't even remember what the low was for Ethereum. Um, pretty unlikely to me we go back to those levels.
And now just moving on to Bitcoin as well. Obviously we're hanging around that $80,000 mark. Um, a lot of people are still questioning whether we're going to hit 100 by the end of this year. Polymarket bets don't really think so. So what's your thoughts around there? Do we really need something big? Like do we need the Clarity Act to pass? Do we need the midterm elections to look more favorable for crypto? What do you think needs to happen to see a meaningful kind of pump in Bitcoin's price?
Generally, Bitcoin is probably the asset I have the least strong views about. Um, because it's the largest and the most macro. Um, generally I think Bitcoin will probably reclaim 100K. No view on timing. I'd say this year seems improbable, but not impossible. Beyond that, it's kind of boring. It's doing its thing. I don't think the Clarity Act has any bearing on Bitcoin directly. Uh, now look, it may, the BTC price may, um, uh, do well if the Clarity Act passes, not because clarity does anything for Bitcoin. Clarity is a matter of law, doesn't impact Bitcoin really at all. But in terms of just general, um, euphoria in crypto, you know, BTC is likely to at least go up, although it should go up a lot less than the other stuff that is much more directly impacted by clarity. I don't really think midterms impact Bitcoin at all either. So, you know, probably the things that are going to more drive Bitcoin will be things like Bessent's commentary and like, you know, yield curve control and those kinds of things as those kinds of actions tend to drive macro people towards the fixed supply type of assets such as Bitcoin. Um, but obviously we have no idea what this is going to do or how that's going to shake out.
Every year exchanges get hacked, wallets get drained and keys get stolen. Engrave Zero is built to make that impossible. No USB, no Bluetooth, no Wi-Fi. Every transaction is signed offline and verified by QR code. It's the only wallet certified EAL7, the highest security rating a financial device can hold. Four layers of tamper protection, biometric access. Nothing gets in. Back up your key on graphene steel. Fireproof, built to outlast disasters. Track your portfolio in the Liquid app. Your keys never leave the device. Engrave. Own your crypto.
What crypto assets do you think then would benefit the most in terms of potential price movements from the passing of the Clarity Act?
Uh, I mean, Solana is like unequivocally the best positioned asset to benefit from the Clarity Act. Um, the Clarity Act specifically has an eight-pronged decentralization test, um, written into it. And today, the only two networks that actually check those boxes are Solana and Ethereum. Ethereum mainnet. One of those criteria is that you have to have an open source network that's permissionless with a globally distributed validator set. Um, so by definition, all the L2s fail. Um, by definition, um, all the, the new kind of corporate chains such as Tempo and Arc fail. And so basically of the chains that are relevant, um, the only two that, that will actually pass that test today are Ethereum and Solana. Um, obviously we'll see if the other chains, you know, try and get there and obviously they can try. I think most of them are going to have pretty serious problems because they've made so many architectural decisions predicated on not being an open source, globally distributed system, that it's going to be pretty hard for them to move in that direction. Um, so I think Solana directly and then obviously all of the, the kind of core Solana primitives, um, are also very likely to benefit in a pretty profound way.
Do you think there's a possibility we see another Solana-based altcoin season then as well?
I mean, it seems impossible that it won't eventually happen. I think we already kind of had one over the last couple of months. Um, I know Robinhood has been getting a lot of press, but I mean, I think there's been a lot of runners on Solana too. So, um, yes, I mean, human greed and market cyclicality guarantees it will happen again.
Yeah. And just on Solana as well, obviously Solana's had periods of outperformance with Ethereum as well. So what do you think over the next cycle now? Do you think that Solana's got a decent chance of repeating that and outperforming Ethereum in the coming years?
Yeah, I do. I mean, look, quite frankly, today no one really uses Ethereum. I mean, there's some usage, but like it's just a, a fraction of Solana's usage in terms of real people every day clicking buttons and doing things. You know, Ethereum still leads on two basically metrics, stablecoins issued. And then, um, stablecoins borrowed against ETH as collateral. Beyond those two metrics, ETH is, you know, in third, fourth, fifth, sixth place on basically every other metric you can look at. Um, and I don't really see a path to that changing. So, um, yeah, I've not been optimistic. Ethereum in a long time, continued to be bearish. It's a $400 billion, $300 billion asset that has questionable value accrual, if any. Um, and is growing or not growing at all. Um, and it's very obvious that the core team is pretty checked out and not really trying to win. So like, I don't know why you want to own this thing at 300 billion, there's plenty of other, better things you can own at much more reasonable prices.
Do you see the flip of Solana and Ethereum a possibility?
And when? What timeline? And I guess what needs to happen for that? Is it just continued usage on Solana and, and like you said, delayed and reduced interest on Ethereum, or what do you think needs to be the catalyst for that switch to happen?
Yeah, I think, I think probably over, over this market cycle, I think you'll see a lot of OG Ethereum people. Yeah. Like, like companies built around Ethereum. I don't, look, I don't think they're going to like formally trash Ethereum. That's probably unnecessary. But you'll basically see them give up on it. I think this includes things like, for example, the default network that Coinbase has for withdrawing stablecoins or any of the other major exchanges, the default network that the market makers use for settling trades. Um, there's all, you know, the default thing that the custodians like BitGo and Anchorage and these other guys, what are they kind of try to nudge customers towards? I suspect over the next market cycle, you'll see kind of the, the default for all of those kinds of companies for the last five, six, seven years has been Ethereum. I think they all, they all know writing's on the wall. And I think they'll all kind of like switch their default over to, um, you know, to Solana because it's just like it is the most functional network for, for all of them. And it's just easier for all of them to consolidate their operations around Solana to, to the best of their, you know, to the extent that they can.
And like I remember talking to, uh, I think it's the president of the Coinbase Asset Management around what was third place in the eyes of institutions. And it was like the obvious Bitcoin and Ethereum at that point around a year ago. And then maybe third was Solana mixed with XRP. I mean, what's your, what's your thoughts when you hear that?
I mean, I don't really think there's any institutions buying XRP. XRP is clearly a retail coin. Um, lots of retail people like it. Talk about it, trade it. Good for them. I don't think there's any sophisticated capital in the world that is actively buying XRP at, I think what it's trading at 150 billion FTT or something like that these days. I don't think there's any sophisticated money in the world buying that.
