Singapore prime minister warns of turbulence ahead in 'post-American' order | FT Interview

We like stability.

We are certainly in the midst of a great transition to a multipolar world, a post-American order and a multipolar world. No one can tell how the transition will unfold. But there is no doubt it will be messy and unpredictable because America is stepping back from its role as global insurer. But there is no other country that's able to or willing to fill the vacuum. So we are in an uncomfortable position where the old rules do not apply anymore but the new ones have not been written and we must brace ourselves for more turbulence ahead. So what are we to do in this environment? I think we cannot afford to just wait for things to happen or hope somehow that things magically will fall in place. We have to take actions now, plan now and start taking actions to invest together in tackling the problems of the global commons or in building new trade connections and keeping up the momentum of trade liberalization. So that's something that Singapore is keen to do. We can't do it alone, but we will do it with other like-minded countries.

The US may not be able or willing to join these plans now, but we have to press ahead and hopefully in time to come they will come along as well. But given the uncertainties and the unpredictabilities, we cannot just leave things to chance. We have to start taking actions now to lay the foundations of the new multilateral architecture.

Yes, we are. We are because we believe what has happened in America is not just a temporary phenomenon. It reflects broader change in political culture and also in American society itself, a feeling that America has not benefited from the current global order that it had put in place and it is not prepared to do as much of the heavy lifting to keep the order going. And I think that goes beyond this administration.

Some of it may well be justified in the sense that there may well have been free riders, so to speak, and countries do need to do more to invest in their own economic security and also stability. We do that in Singapore. We have never taken it for granted. We have consistently invested year by year in our own security and our defense and also facilitated America's presence in the region. Certainly what the Trump administration has done is to motivate and catalyze many countries to do this self-reflection and you see that happening now, more countries are indeed investing. There's certainly self-reflection, you see it in Europe and people are taking matters into their own hands. But so while there may be truth in some of what Mr. Trump has said, and the positive result of this is countries taking more responsibility and spending more on their own security. We worry that the consequence of these actions will also mean, as I just said, a weakening of the global order today and we think there's no going back. There will be a new multipolar world. Multipolarity itself does not provide a stable framework for countries to work together, to cooperate and to ensure shared prosperity and security. So we have to think about what we can do together to engender that.

We hope it will not end up like that because if the world ends up in exclusionary blocs and spheres of influence, I think it will be more dangerous and unstable. So from our point of view, multipolarity should still have a way to bring about global connections. We would prefer a world where ASEAN in Southeast Asia, we are a platform that allows for open and inclusive engagements with all the major powers.

Certainly we have ambitions to do so.

I wouldn't first of all belittle the achievements of ASEAN. Southeast Asia is a very diverse region, highly complex, made up of so many different ethnicities, languages, religions. It used to be called the Balkans of Asia because of the geographical fragmentation and the potential for instability. And yet all these decades since the end of the Vietnam War, Southeast Asia has been able to maintain relative peace and avoided major conflicts. And a lot of it is credit to ASEAN. ASEAN is certainly not perfect, but it is indispensable. And we are continuing to build on the foundations that have been laid. There are plans to accelerate ASEAN integration to make ourselves a more attractive and competitive single market. And in some ways the tariffs imposed by America have indeed catalyzed and motivated ASEAN leaders to come together with more urgency on this endeavor.

The actions of the tariffs have certainly impacted America's standing in Southeast Asia. There is no doubt. But I would say all Southeast Asian countries still recognize that America remains the largest investor in the region. Not China. China is the largest trading partner. But as far as FDI flows are concerned, America remains the largest investor. America still has significant stakes in Asia and all of us in Southeast Asia want to maintain good links with America and that's why many countries have had extensive negotiations with the US and eventually they have landed on slightly lower tariffs, more around 19%.

I agree fully with you that... but we started with nothing. Exactly. So from our point of view the correct figure is 0%. Yeah.

It remains to be seen. We are in discussions with the American officials on this. But from what we understand from some of the large American firms like the pharmaceutical companies, some of them on their own have already negotiated their own exemptions because they are investing back in America.

That's right. So we are, you know, looking at this in greater detail also to understand fully what's the impact on our economy.

Not so much on the overall flows because if you look at global figures, trade flows continue. They are just being reconfigured into new patterns of trade and so long as they are continuing especially in Asia, Singapore can remain a relevant node and we see that continuing to be the case and we are determined to remain at the center of these global patterns.

Well, our position is very clear. We've established a business hub on the basis of our reputation for rule of law and trust. And so, we are determined and fully committed to maintain the integrity of our business environment. We will not tolerate businesses violating our laws. We'll take, you know, strict actions. And when it comes to export controls, we will also not condone businesses or individuals taking advantage of their association with Singapore to circumvent the export controls of other countries. So where America is concerned, what we have done is put in place robust arrangements so that the US government can take actions, investigate companies of interest in Singapore if they so wish. And we will also extend similar arrangements for other countries if they would like also to have the same treatment where it comes to their export controls because nowadays export controls is not limited to America only.

No, I don't think we got it wrong. I think there are several reasons for it. One, the actual rollout of the tariffs have not been as high as what they initially were indicated to be. Second, there has been a lot of frontloading of activities which has dampened the impact. And third, generally speaking, because of AI, because of new technologies, the rest of the economy has been quite resilient so far. But there will be an impact. I think we already start to feel it in our own economy. In many ways, we always say the Singapore economy is like the canary in the coal mine because we are so open and so exposed to the external environment. We are the first to feel it when the external environment starts to weaken. We didn't feel it in the first half of this year.

We are starting to feel some slowdown now as we approach the second half of this year because of uncertainty. Businesses are holding back on new investments and new hiring and we are starting to see a general slowdown in business activities.