My mission is simple: to make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to help you find it. Mad Money starts now.
Hey, I'm Cramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Cramerica. My friends, I'm just trying to make a little bit funny. My job is not just to entertain, but to teach you. So, call me at 1-800-743-CBC. Tweet me at Jim Cramer.
Maybe we just need to wait for the war to end. But if you jumped the gun and you did some buying ahead of the president's speech last night, you know, you felt like you made a huge mistake when you came in this morning and saw the price of oil spiking. But then we hear a positive rumor about Iran possibly striking a deal with Oman to allow some traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and boom, the averages snapped right back. Dow finishing off just 61 points as the S&P advanced 0.1% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.18%.
Yep. Oil was up over 11% today. Yet the averages pretty much finished flat. That is an incredibly unusual snapback. That was highly unexpected and made us think that maybe the bear is taking a brief vacation.
Any other day where we have oil pop like this, and we should have been down perhaps 1.5% to 2%. It was stunning, it was surreal, and it seemed to foretell some good things at work, but we just don't know what they are right now, and I'm not going to try to pretend that we do. But maybe we should have seen something positive coming. This market never went as low as you would have expected this morning, given that the president talked last night about wars that lasted a long time, much longer than the current conflict with Iran. After listening to how many days those wars lasted, I couldn't tell if the president was saying this one could last a lot longer and still be relatively short versus the comparison, or if he was saying, 'Hey, listen, I'm going to stress to you that two to three more weeks would be remarkably short and everything is in control for a smooth exit from the hostilities.' Again, not clear.
You have to admit that it was hard to tell why we weren't down a lot more today, given the president made it pretty clear that things are about to escalate. Won't it send oil up 100% for the year, which is not far from here? If it does, then history says that you have to expect a 20% decline in the stock.
Something J.P. Morgan's legendary Michael Semlas showed in a recent piece of research: the correlation seems ironclad — oil up 100%, stocks down 20%. But the positive close made you think that perhaps either we wouldn't get oil up to 100%, or that this market would break the pattern of an assured bear market when oil rallies so strongly.
Then again, we sure took off on a rumor of a deal between Iran and anyone like Oman, which has been a strategic partner of the United States. We never nailed the rumor down all day. So if you had to wonder if traders were thinking of something else, I don't know what it was. I don't know what else could be at work. I mean, is it possible, for example, that there's a point of pain where Iran would — where they would really want to come to the table? If the U.S. does bomb their infrastructure — power, roads, and bridges — causing real chaos, what will happen? Will that force them to negotiate, or would it only make them more stubborn? Will it stop the endless missile and drone attacks in the Gulf? At this point, I think most Americans accept that the Iranians are tougher and more resilient than we thought. Then again, our government has yet to unleash its full military power. Personally, I hope we don't have to get that far, but it's not up to me.
I think this would be a very important weekend for the war and the stock market. With its rally today, it seems to be able to say, you know what, we'll take whatever comes. I continue to focus on growth stocks because they'll still look good in a war-induced slowdown. But I also recognize that the longer the war goes on, the worse the inflation will be. At a certain point, earnings reports will be constrained from both the demand side and the supply side. I don't think we're there yet. However, with every day this goes on, it becomes less and less likely that we're dealing with the kind of short war that won't do much damage to the economy.
So, with that in mind, let's take a look at our game plan for next week. Remember, it's a holiday-shortened session. We're not — I mean, we're not going to be here tomorrow. Now, by the way, CNBC will be covering the unemployment number tomorrow in the morning, but then we'll suspend regular coverage for Good Friday. Now, Monday, I expect we're going to be digesting this weekend's war damage in Iran and everywhere else, especially our allies in the Gulf. We keep expecting that there'll be a moment when the Iranians have no more missiles and no more drones. The president keeps talking about the Iranian navy and aircraft being decimated, but it's the endless drone and missile attacks that are the problem. They don't need a navy or an air force to shut down the Strait.
Frankly, sometimes it seems like Iran is as strong as it was when the war started. Even if you cut off the head of the snake, it seems to mean nothing. That's why this weekend could be so important. Maybe we get a one-way war if the president unleashes the firepower he said he would last night. And in his aftermath, the U.S. can dictate the terms. We definitely aren't there yet, that I know. Maybe we make very little progress. Let's see what happens this weekend. We'll parse it all out for you on Monday.
Some companies, they really struggle for respect. I think that's the case with Levi's, which keeps delivering, yet the stock stays at around 19 bucks, as if they're doing nothing right, which couldn't be further from the truth. The company reports next Tuesday after the close, and I think that once again CEO Michelle Goss will put up more than respectable earnings. I just wonder if it'll matter. 3% yield, good growth. I don't understand why someone doesn't just create an apparel colossus around it.
Wednesday before the market opens, Delta reports, and this airline titan has truly distinguished itself as one of the most reliable earners in a very volatile group. Its excellent CEO, Ed Bastian, helped ignite an airline rally when he discussed his business with Phil LeBeau and spoke about persistent demand. Last night's speech by the president knocked airlines down. As you'd expect, a war that goes on until the end of the month will hurt the numbers.
After the close, we hear from a very special company, Constellation Brands. And I'm excited about the possibilities here. You see, the company has a new CEO, Nick Fink, formerly of Fortune Brands Innovations, and previously of Jim Beam. And I think he can revitalize the business that has the top beer in the country, Modelo. We all know that liquor's been challenged, right? GLP-1s — people who want to care more about how they look in their 20s. But I'm beginning to believe that there's a subtle turn in beer and a definite turn in the ready-to-drink cocktail market. If that's true, Constellation is the one you want to be in. STZ, I think it might be worth even buying ahead.
Thursday brings the core PCE deflator, which has been the preferred index of inflation for Powell's Federal Reserve. I don't know if it'll remain that way under incoming Fed chief Kevin Warsh, but we need to keep track of it for certain. Then on Friday, which is kind of a one-two punch on inflation here, we get the consumer price index. I wonder if either index will capture any of the price increases that we should expect thanks to the Iran-induced oil shock. And they will be significant.
So, here's something to think about. Since the war started, the last trading day of each week has given you a minus 1.28% return. Today, we broke that losing streak. I think we would have had a much worse session if not for fear of something good happening. That's right, good. Just the rumor of one Gulf country perhaps making a deal stopped the sellers cold, even as the price of oil soared.
So, here's the bottom line. In a world where investors want the war to end quickly, it was surprising to see any sort of rally before the weekend with oil spiking. The fog of war seems foggier than ever. Except this session, it ended a little clearer and more positive than we ever thought after the president's bellicose speech last night. It was a very difficult day to fathom, mostly because higher oil prices and lower stock prices were axiomatic until this truly amazing session.
Michael in California. Michael?
Hey Jim, big booyah from California.
Good to have you on the show, Michael. How can I help you?
Hey, long-time listener, second-time caller. First, I wanted to give a quick shout-out to an old coworker, Lewis, that put me on your show back in 2018.
Can't beat it. Absolutely.
Yeah. So, with everything going on in the world, I feel like people are traveling less and putting more money into renovating their homes. The stock I'm calling about is Home Depot.
Okay. We were very disappointed in the action of Home Depot today. Finished down eight. It hit its 52-week low. The company yields almost 3%. I turned to Jeff Marks, who works with me for my charitable trust. I said maybe we should buy some, but we're a little beaten down on it. We didn't want to buy anymore right now. We need to see mortgage rates lower, and we don't have them yet. I'm not giving up on Home Depot, but there are issues involving ICE too that have really hurt them. But I do want to say that I regard it now as one of the most problematic positions in my portfolio, along with Nike. Those are the two I'm most worried about.
Look, the fog of war seems thicker than ever right now, but you know what? A lot of people weren't waiting for clarity. They took action today. On Mad Money tonight, the war in Iran has thrown energy markets around the world into a tailspin. So how is a major pipeline operator like ONEOK positioned for the growing demand for American energy? And we know there's growing demand. I'm checking in with the CEO to find out. Then it's been another volatile week on Wall Street. So tonight we're opening up the phone lines directly to you, the great Americans out there who might need help in navigating these turbulent times, especially on a day like today. And senior citizens might get some great discounts. Well, could you be getting a discount right now on the best stocks to play the growing market for senior housing? I'm reviewing the companies, and man, they are very strong. So stay with Cramer.
Don't miss a second of Mad Money. Follow Jim Cramer on X. Have a question? Tweet Cramer #madmentions. Send Jim an email to
[email protected] or give us a call at 1-800-743-CNBC. Miss something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
After President Trump's bellicose speech last night, the price of oil spiked. So did the price of natural gas outside the U.S. As long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the rest of the world will be starved for gas. And the best way to get it is to build more liquefied natural gas export infrastructure here in the United States. Which brings me to ONEOK, a pipeline play with roughly 60,000 miles of infrastructure for moving natural gas, natural gas liquids, refined products. These guys have a deep backlog of projects coming online over the next few years that could bolster the company's growth, even as they expect 2026 to be more or less flat. But we have to see whether that's still the case. This company's paying a 4.85% yield. So, is this stock worth buying in a world where American natural gas exports become a lot more important? And there's so much to talk about here. Let's check in with Pierce Norton II. He's the president and CEO of ONEOK to find out how things are going. Mr. Norton, welcome to Mad Money.
Thank you, Jim. Glad to be here.
Okay, now there are two — there are two ONEOKs. When you reported last, the oil price was much lower. Natural gas pretty much the same. And now everything's elevated. I don't want to get too ahead of myself because I know that you are not a price story, so to speak. You're a volume story. But at these prices, aren't all the producers anxious to bring more to the market? And can they do it without you?
Well, the answer is, can they do it without us? And the answer is no. We're what we call the invisible transportation area because you can't see it. You mentioned that we have 60,000 miles of pipe. That's true. But we also have gathering and processing. We have natural gas liquids. We have natural gas pipelines. We've got storage in both of those areas. We've got an LPG dock that we're doing. So we actually take the product from where it actually doesn't have a whole lot of value. We actually increase the value, and then we bring it to an area where there is significant value to the end users.
Now, the previous quarter, a lot of people felt, well, hold a second, you didn't give them the upside. But you certainly said, look, don't worry about it, 2027 is going to be terrific. But can you pull forward some of that because of what's happened in the world?
Well, the answer is yes. And the reason is because we do have a little bit of commodity exposure. So this price increase is going to help us a little bit. But we're focused on the long term. So the long term, I think the world is seeing what's happening today is that the most expensive form of energy is the energy that does not show up. So I think there's going to be people that are actually going to look at this and they're going to relook at where they're sourcing their supply. So I think that's going to mean well for the LNG market, the LPG market, and also the oil market. So let me give you an example on the LNG.
LNG is going to be going to 30 BCF by 2030, right?
That's an additional 12 BCF a day. That's going to come with a lot of liquids. We are poised to provide the services for that because we already have a lot of our assets already built, and we're building even more.
All right. So explain to people who aren't that familiar what the liquids are and why they are in such demand.
Okay. Natural gas when it comes out of the ground is in raw form. People see the natural gas and they think, oh, that's what you burn in your house. It's not. It actually has propane, isobutane, normal butane, pentane — all of these different things in it. So all those have value, but we have to do what we do, which is to gather it, to process it, and to transport it in order to create the true value of the value.
And some of them have really spiked, right? I mean, some of the prices in the last few weeks have been crazy.
They have really spiked with what's going on over in the Middle East.
So, when you listen to the president last night, you think about our situation. We know that we are continental self-sufficient. Sometimes that gets confused with domestic self-sufficient. Has there been a kind of lid on things because people just said, you know what, it's never really going to go up? And is there a little natural gas, which would be good for our country, but maybe not so good for some of your clients?
Well, I think a lot of the areas that we're in, they're drilling for oil, right? So they actually were drilling more for the oil price, and the natural gas price was something that they didn't pay a whole lot of attention to. But now that we're having the LNG market, you're going to have to have some extra prices on the LNG side that transfers back to the natural gas side and also will transfer back to the crude oil side. So there's a good chance that actually crude oil is actually going to continue to grow in this country.
Well, let's talk about Bakken. There were some people who were disappointed with Bakken numbers, but you know, the price was down. I mean, I got to believe Bakken's going crazy now if I were there.
Well, there's still 5,000 wells to be drilled up there in the Bakken.
Absolutely. It's huge. And we've got producers up there that are really poised and ready to do that. In fact, we've actually been talking to producers here recently that have told us that they actually are going to increase their drilling plans here in the near future.
That's great. Now, last night the president said some things — sometimes the president's given to hyperbole — where he talked about how we want you to come over here and buy our oil. In truth, we don't really have all that much spare oil, do we, to have other people buy it?
We've moved about 4 million barrels of oil offshore, and it's mainly our light sweet crude. And if you look at where that goes to, then most of those people are getting their other oil that they need actually from the Middle East. So if that's constrained, there's a good opportunity for the United States to do that. That's going to mean more oil from the Bakken, more oil from the SCOOP and the Midcontinent area, and more oil in the Permian Basin.
Well, that is a gigantic boom for the United States. So the president's basically outlining something because we don't have enough refining capacity for that kind of lighter crude, right? I mean, this could be a huge windfall for our producers, and the foreigners would be paying it, so to speak. I just remember during the Jimmy Carter days, we had to worry about windfall profits. It's not like that. They've done the work, and if they have to get it from us, why not, right?
Absolutely. I think you're going to see our — you know, going into this, we thought maybe that the crude oil would be flat for several years at 13.5 million barrels a day, but we really can see maybe the 14 to maybe 15 million barrels a day. And it's going to be driven by what's going on in the world, but also the additional need for natural gas to supply AI data centers and LNG.
Now, that is something you're very actively involved with, the data centers. Now, are you working directly with the hyperscalers? Do you work with companies that are the electric companies that give them the electricity?
Short answer is both. Absolutely both. We're also working with the developers. But at the end of the day, it's all about the quality of their credit. And we're going to work with those credit qualities. That actually ends up giving us an opportunity to do what we do best, I think, which is capital allocation — which is continue to invest in our high-return growth projects, raise our dividends, pay down our debt, and possibly even buy back shares.
Well, you have paid down a lot of debt in the last year. Your balance sheet's looking great. I'm actually hoping for more deals.
Well, that's exactly what we're looking for.
And one last thing, you mentioned 14, 15. How come people always told me we had already maxed out? You've had a better outlook than everybody.
Well, I don't know that I had a better outlook, Jim. I'm just saying that the world has changed. And I think with this world change, I think you're going to see some differences.
The world has changed. Wow. Even since the last quarter's reported. Amazing. And the company that I think you take advantage of it more than anyone is your company.
Well, one thing I would like to say, we have 6,000 employees, and they know what their purpose is, and they get up every day, 24/7, and they actually get out there to make sure that we improve our quality of life. It's essential. It's essential to our economy, and it's essential to national security.
Well said. Thank you so much for being on the show. And Pierce Norton, president and CEO of ONEOK. Guys, if you check with 'How to Make Money in Any Market,' my book, top-flight idea, I suggest that you buy it. That money's back in.
Coming up, as we continue to grapple with this difficult market, Cramer's opening the phone lines to hear your questions on navigating it. It's the Voice of Cramer next.
We just wrapped up another wild week on Wall Street, with the major averages whipsawing in both directions as the market takes its cue from the war in Iran and the price of oil. And during this turbulent time, I got to tell you, we got to make sure that you're getting the right advice that you need on what to do with your portfolio. So during the toughest times, you know what we do? We open the phone lines to hear directly from our great viewers so we can go to work together to be prepared for whatever might come next with this market. So, let's talk first to Forest in North Carolina. Forest?
Hey Jim, first of all, I'd like to thank you for your knowledge and insight into the stock market during the past 25 to 30 years. I've been watching CNBC since the early 90s and Mad Money since 2005, and I'm still watching. It's my favorite.
Oh, you're sensational. Thank you so much. Thank you.
So, I mean, the information and the timely data that you and the network provides, you know, it's enabled us as individual investors to manage our own portfolio, and it's been fun. It's been rewarding. I just want to thank you and everyone at CNBC for being there every day. Good job.
Well, thank you. You know, we try — the main thing is to be there every day. Every day, because the days are crazy. Think about where we were this morning. Think about where we were in the mid-afternoon. Think about where we were at the close. We could just say, 'Hey, listen, it was a nothing day,' but you know, it was everything day. Let's help. What do you got?
