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Hey, I'm Cramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Cramer. Other people make friends. I'm just trying to make a little money. My job is not just to entertain, but to educate, do some teaching. Call me 1-800-743-CBC. Tweet me at @JimCramer. We're nearing those summer doldrums when there's a dearth of new issues and corporate news. The market bifurcated again today with tech soaring and everything else just kind of chopping wood, which is how you end up with a session where the Dow advances just 72 points as the S&P climbs 1.08%, but the Nasdaq surges 1.91%.
After dealing with a new Fed chief, Kevin Warsh, in the aftermath of the largest IPO in history, SpaceX, we could use a sleepy interregnum, and we may finally be getting one. So, let's walk the wall to find out what's going to happen in next week's events. And it's going to be kind of interesting and concentrated right in here. Monday, we could come in and find out the White House has finally closed the deal with the Iranians. I don't want to get into the details because I'm not a foreign policy guy, all right? I'm a stock guy. But I can tell you that the price of oil is going to come down surprisingly hard. This war sped up a lot of big oil and gas projects while also leading to another step down in energy use. Nothing too big, but just enough that the fragile balance that kept the price of oil surprisingly under $100 with the Strait of Hormuz closed could bring about a surprising swoon now that the strait is starting to reopen. Again, I'm expecting shockingly lower oil prices because of this new excess if the peace holds. Here's my thesis: the decline in oil could take down the price at the pump to ever lower levels, and eventually much cheaper gas will convince the Fed officials that it would be insane to raise interest rates. That's why I believe the Fed's next move is more likely to be a rate cut than a rate hike. I know, extremely contrarian view, but remember, the majority is not always right.
Not a lot of corporate news next week, but still enough to parse. One of the more ridiculous elements of stock research is the endless pecking order shifting in the cruise lines. You know, I've been consistent. I like Viking because of its upscale model, okay? No kids, no gambling. But I recognize that all the cruise lines are well run. When Carnival reports, we might get our first inkling of what their future looks like with lower fuel costs and, perhaps more important, what actually happened with fuel and with destinations that were deemed off limits. Remember, all the cruise lines — Viking has the best pricing power, but they can all generate really good fares. Carnival's been pretty lucrative. I've never told anyone not to buy it.
After the close Tuesday, we get results from FedEx. Now, I've been telling everyone to buy this one. We just came back from Memphis not that long ago where I spoke with CEO Raj Subramaniam. We like the stock enough that we told CNBC Investing Club members to go buy some, which is exactly what we did for the Charitable Trust. FedEx tends to give very conservative guidance when it reports. So, if you see a big earnings number and then the stock sells off from the forecast on the call, it might be a terrific buying opportunity for you. The company, always well run under the late Fred Smith, a great friend of mine, is now a juggernaut under Raj. I think you just own FedEx for the long haul as it's winning in the trenches against longtime opponent UPS. Buy it, put it away.
I'm acutely focused on housing, as you know, because it punches above its weight. It's a big part of the economy. So, I'm going to make time to listen to the conference call from KB Home. That's a well-run home builder that tells it like it is. Very, very abject conference call. I sure hope they make some reference to the Federal Reserve. The housing industry just feels like it's dead in the water right now. There's just not enough supply and not enough new homes. Why should there be, though, with interest rates as high as they are? Why would a home builder step up to the plate? It's really only Toll Brothers who can handle the situation. That's because about a quarter of their homes are bought with cash.
Now, Wednesday, we got new home sales. And again, remember my focus, because I think the Fed's got to cut. Anybody's guess what this number will be. So far, the Fed has ignored the weakness. I think that changes once oil comes down. One of my absolute favorite companies, as you may know if you watch the show closely enough, is Casey's General Store. It's got an analyst day on Wednesday. Now, most of these things really don't move stocks. I think this one actually could, because people still don't know the Casey story. The small city model. I bet they have some of those delicious breakfast pizzas, too. Don't you want to go on a road trip just for a breakfast pizza, please?
Paychex reports in the morning, and their quarters have been poorly received of late, even as the company's a consistent beat and raise. When I see that pattern, you know what I think? I presume that the industry could be disrupted by AI, even if I can't get my head around how. I'll say this, though: like Intuit, like Adobe, like Salesforce — it's 13 days down in a row. I'm not going against the zeitgeist. I'm not going to fight the tide, all right?
After the close, we get the most consequential quarter of the week, and it's Micron. Now, this stock's up about 300% for the year. So I think Micron needs to beat and then raise for well beyond the consensus to continue to go higher. If it does, though, this memory chip maker can soar because of the shortages. Anything less than a blowout, though, is going to be a problem. Luckily, Micron chips are in such short supply that they have insane pricing power. That's great for the stock, but it's terrible for the consumer, as these higher memory costs are now being passed on by the likes of Apple and most of the entertainment devices that you may be buying.
Thursday morning, we get the core PCE deflator. Now, this was the preferred way to measure inflation under the previous Fed chairman. One of the many things I liked about Kevin Warsh's press conference yesterday — and I really did like it — was how he's no longer going to tolerate the kind of old data that, to paraphrase, seems more anecdotal than empirical. I've been railing against the way the Fed collects its data for years. It's old by the time they read it, and it's often poorly reported. Warsh wants to change that. I think it'll be a big improvement over what the heck this thing was.
Also on Thursday, we hear from McCormick. This is the spices and seasoning stock. It is still reeling from their deal to buy Unilever's food business, which Wall Street thinks was a colossal overpay. Let's see what management says to justify it. The stock's been crushed. Darden reports in the morning. This fabulous restaurant chain, the home of Olive Garden, by the way, almost always surprises to the upside. It's like clockwork. Nearly as good as hospitality king Marriott. I like Darden ahead of the quarter. I do, because I see gas prices coming down, and that's a very good determinant and has been for the 25 years I've followed Darden.
One of the trust's newest positions is FedEx Freight. Just got it. The freight stocks have been on fire, mostly because the economy is so strong and e-commerce is still taking share from bricks and mortar. FedEx Freight is uniquely set up to take advantage of that trend. It's the recent less-than-truckload spin-off from FedEx. I like that the company's on track to cut a huge amount of cost while picking up a lot of market share. Added bonus: self-driving trucks. They're coming, and they'll matter. That's it. Light week.
I want to leave you with an important point. I told club members — and I do want you to join the club because it's really important to me — that Intel is now my favorite stock in my charitable trust. Intel. There's not been a hard Apple-Intel deal yet, despite what the president posted on Truth Social. I think that can change. Club members know I want to be bigger in Intel for my trust. I think you should be in it, too. Here's the bottom line: join the club. I'll keep you up on it. Right now, it's just the memory chip stocks that are running, but I believe that CPUs will be the next big shortage, and that is Intel's wheelhouse.
Why don't we go to Greg in Texas? Greg.
