Marvell, everybody, the next $1 trillion company. And I was like, haha, funny joke. And then I learned the next day, or I don't know, the same day whenever the markets opened, it's like Marvell is up 70%. And I was like, oh my god, there was my arbitrage event, and I was there taking Jensen leather jacket video the whole time. My video cost me thousands of dollars. I should have bought. Wow. I saw a $100 billion sentence come right by my face, and I just let it go by. Like, I did absolutely nothing.
All right. Hello everyone. Welcome to another Semi Doped podcast. I'm Austin Lyons of Chip Strat, and with me is Vik Sekar from Vik's Newsletter. So we're back from Taiwan, and I'm getting over my jet lag. This is my first time to Asia, and as hard as I tried to not have jet lag, my internal clock is just totally screwed up. So I'm back, I'm awake, I've got some coffee in me. And listeners, you may not know this, but Vik and I, we're six months into a podcast, but we're actually in two different countries, and we actually met in person for the very first time. So Vik, you took a picture. It was pretty cool.
Yeah, it was awesome. It was totally cool to meet you. And when we met each other, the first thing that came to my mind is like, holy crap, Austin is tall, man. What you don't like in video, I can't really tell, you know. And when I met you in person, I'm like, who is this guy? Like, why is he all the way up there?
I'm like this small Indian dude, so I'm like, yeah, this is my regular height. I'm kind of like average, I would say, for Indian height. But yeah, Austin's tall. So that's cool. So we took a picture, right? So yeah, obviously you can see the height difference there. We are on the same floor level. That was cool. Yeah, it's nice to meet you in person finally. You know, after all this talking online.
It's amazing what you can do with the internet these days, right? You can start a whole podcast. We got this thing. We talk so much semis, but in person it was awesome. Like we met so many people that were also in the online world, and you meet them all in real life. Computex is such a big show. It's amazing how big it was and how many people there were. All of them looking at this AI hardware stuff. I'm like, wait, are all of you really interested in AI hardware? I'm amazed.
Yeah, totally. Totally. Yeah, I agree with you. It's really cool to meet obviously you in person and hang out more, and then just the other Substackers, YouTubers, people in the industry that we know of. It's very humanizing, you know, you just get face to face and you're just like, yeah, this is another person who also has the same crazy interest that I do, going really deep on the businesses and the technology. And yeah, I agree with you. On the one hand, there was a ton of people there, and on the one hand I was like, well, you know, we are in Asia and a lot of people work in this industry. But on the other hand, outside of the whole AI and semis has blown up in the last two years, it is still a little crazy. Like, yeah, I've always been into this stuff, and it's kind of deeper tech than maybe just pure software. And it's crazy to see, oh, there are hundreds of thousands of people that also feel the same way. Of course, as they're walking through, I thought, I wonder how many of them have seen the podcast, and if not, there's a huge subscriber base right here, like in the Computex pre-registration line where apparently I actually didn't pre-register. So there was literally a thousand people in this line where if you pre-register, you got to pick up your badge. And somehow I screwed it up and didn't actually pre-register. So I got to go to a different place where there's only 10 other people. And I was like, oh, okay, I guess I'm never going to pre-register because I got the fast pass. But I looked at that long line and I just thought, we got to get all of them to check out Semi Doped.
Like Austin is over there counting TAM, you know, like that's my TAM right here. Computex is my TAM, my Substack TAM, my podcast TAM. But yeah, you're right. That's right. I was truly amazed. And yeah, it's so funny though because in the previous evening, I think you had some events you had to attend, and by the time you showed up and we met, it was already like at 4 p.m. And we went to the registration counter and they were like, no, it's done for the day. And the next morning I walk into the venue and I see the lines on the registration. It goes like the entire length of the conference hall or something, like, you know, half a mile. I'm like, oh my god, Austin should have done this yesterday. He just needed to show up like 10 minutes earlier, and now I don't know how he's going to get his badge. But I'm glad you're out there counting TAM, you know.
Yes. Totally. Yeah. I thought the same thing. I was like, oh crap, I screwed this up. But then it turned out okay. You know, another thing that stood out to me was like there are so many people who came up to us and said like, hey, I watch your podcast and I like it and I love what you guys do and all. Super thankful for meeting these people in person because it's insane. Like we don't know who's on the other side of this video, right? But there are people apparently, and it's nice to meet them.
Totally. Yes. Yes. I felt the same way. You know, when people subscribe to our Substack and read it, we can see the email of who signed up, so you get a general sense of who your audience is. But with the podcast, we just kind of throw it out into the ether. And so it's cool, yes, when people came up and they're like, oh hey, Austin, what's up. Yeah, I had someone at breakfast one day that was like, oh, are you Austin? I was like, yeah, what's up. And then he was like, oh, I think you write a Substack. And I was like, yes. And then I was like, I have a podcast too, you know. But just cool to run. It's like niche maxing or something, like in a very, very, very narrow niche, people know who we are, and that's very cool. But on my flight home, my flight got... I was supposed to fly through Tokyo, but that got canceled because there was a typhoon. So I hope all of our Tokyo listeners are okay, Japan listeners. And so I took a different flight, Taipei to SFO. And when I got there, someone sat down next to me. I was like, ah, that looks just like Ben Thompson. And so then later I was like, I think that is Ben Thompson. So I said to him, he writes Stratechery, for those of you who don't know. And so then later I was like, hey, Ben, I'm Austin. You know, and I introduced myself to him. But same, I thought about him. I was like, oh, he's hyper famous in a certain slice of the world. And then everyone else at the airport has no idea who he is.
Yeah, he's... for those who don't know, I think we should mention this. Ben Thompson is the OG newsletter guy. He started a newsletter when there was no Substack or anything like that. Substack is built on Ben Thompson's idea of creating an email newsletter. And you know, he has tens of thousands of readers, and he writes every day, and he has a podcast. So we all know him, you know, in the tech world or whatever. But it's so cool you ran into him in an airport, and he'll be like, oh my god, nobody ever recognized me here, but it's suddenly like Austin who walked up to me. So it's like a hyper niche thing. It's like the moment we step out of Computex, nobody knows who we are. Like the moment, you know.
Yes. Totally. Totally. In my neighborhood, you know, everyone just is like, oh, that's that dude that runs all the time. But other than that, people have no idea. And then you go to something like in Taiwan, to another country, and then all of a sudden people recognize me, and it's like, oh, this is weird.
Yeah. So maybe this is a consequence of being in a highly populated country, because in my neighborhood somebody recognized me. I'm like, whoa, that's insane. I was just going to buy milk. And then in the airport, somebody said like, hey, are you the guy who writes the newsletter? And so I was like, yeah, that's me. That's amazing. And so, you know, in Computex too, we met so many people and it was great. But, you know, part of the Computex appeal is actually the exhibition, which is fantastic. You know, it has like multiple buildings and multiple floors of everything from AI racks to like chairs. Like I saw chairs, okay? Like computer chairs that you could sit on and work on. I'm like, so, and all the gaming and all that in between. So I suppose that it's natural to have gaming chairs as well. It covers so much. And at one point I walked into the ground floor, and there were like a ton of people, and I was like, yeah, everybody's looking at AI racks, but it's not so, because actually Jensen was at the other end of that looking at all the racks and stuff. And I was with like a couple of people, I think you had gone back already, and we were like, that's it, dude, we're not going into this hall right now, because the way it is, like there's security walking on either side, and they're like making way for him, and he's like walking by. And I guess somebody told me like people were keeping track of whichever booth he stops in and like buying stock or something. I don't know. Like each place he went to was having like these mini pops.
And they were maybe people were counting. Oh, he stood at the Delta booth for like 20 seconds. There must be something there.
Yeah. Just it's like momentary arbitrage, like you get a signal before everyone else, while someone else is posting the picture to X. You quick invest, and then everyone sees it. Oh, Jensen stopped there on X, and then they buy the stock. That's crazy.
So, talking about momentary events, right? Let's talk about the networking keynote I attended, which is like Marvell. And I was in the front row because they let the media in. I guess I'm media now. Yeah. So I was sitting there, and you know, I was pretty surprised because I didn't have any idea Jensen is going to come trotting on stage. So he comes in and he's like, hey everybody, what's up? And everybody was like, happy. Yay, Jensen. You know, we get to see Jensen. So I was pretty happy because I missed GTC actually. I've never seen Jensen in person. Okay. So I was like pretty stoked by it. I'm like, I saw the leather jacket.
That was your first time seeing the leather jacket in the flesh. Cool. Nice.
I only write about all the stuff the leather jacket creates on, you know, my Substack and all that, but I never see him in the flesh.
Well, there you go. And how was it?
I don't know. Oh, it is cool, I guess. I mean, I don't think that that one-time Jensen sighting feeling is ever going to come back. Like, oh, that's Jensen, by the way. And then he comes in and says like, Marvell, everybody, the next $1 trillion company. And I was like, haha, a funny joke. You know why? Because just then, Matt Murphy, the CEO of Marvell, had said, oh yeah, like we've already had $3 trillion memory companies recently in the AI boom and all that. And I was like, yeah, yeah, that's pretty cool. And I didn't expect Jensen to come by and say, oh, your next trillion dollar company. I thought he's just saying that to make Matt feel better, like, oh, don't worry, you'll be a trillion dollar company too someday. And then I learned the next day, or I don't know, the same day whenever the markets opened, it's like Marvell is up 70%. And I was like, oh my god, there was my arbitrage event. And I was there taking Jensen leather jacket video the whole time. My video cost me thousands of dollars. I should have bought. Like, that's fine.
That's hilarious. No. Yeah, they were truly up like 30%. Maybe they got, I don't know, something crazy like $50 billion in market cap or something just from Jensen's comment. Of course, or you could say it was because of what they presented and the merits were good and the story was good and whatever. Regardless, I thought to myself, oh man, you know, Jensen goes around and gives $2 billion to this company, $2 billion to this company. Hey, at this point, he doesn't have to give $2 billion. He just has to give compliments. And maybe that's even more valuable to the company than a $2 billion investment.
Yeah, I know. That's more valuable. You can keep your... just say Jensen. Jensen says your company is good, and then you're better off than his $2 billion. So Jensen's happy. He gets to keep his $2 billion, and the others are seeing everything pop. Anyway, it's strange times we live in. I thought it was funny because I've never been in the middle of an event, you know, a hundred billion. I think it was $100 billion actually, just close to $100 billion that the comment was. And I was like, wow, I saw a $100 billion sentence come right by my face, and I just let it go by. I did absolutely nothing.
Yeah, but the whole talk about Marvell CEO basically was like, oh yeah, optics is here, and you know, the copper wall has now moved out to the point that you can only do like on-package stuff, and everything within rack is now going to be optics, you know. So he showed this cool slide about that. And so I think the whole keynote was basically about Marvell's prowess in optical interconnect, especially when they acquired Inphi many years back. I think great acquisition. I think they have like a very strong optical portfolio now. They showed off their Teranox switch, which is a 102.4 terabits per second switch, which is I would say like what the Tomahawk 6 by Broadcom is similar. It's a similar 102.4 terabit per second switch. So that was their big announcement there.
But yeah, they showed a big, big tray of CPO, and he's pointing to it and saying like, look at that. That's how big it was.
Yeah, those are big, right? I mean, if you have to do a pluggable implementation, those are really big. But then he showed the CPO, which was like much smaller, right? It's like the size of your whole hand extended kind of size. So it's amazing the kind of compression in size CPO can bring about. And yeah, so the whole show was essentially very heavy optics. Like people loved CPO. Like everybody was, every demonstration is CPO and this and CPO that, and the talk was all CPO. That's what a sense I got at least. So yeah, it was cool actually. The whole keynote was nice. I've never been to too many such high-profile talks like right up front. All this is very new to me, but I had fun.
Yeah. Yeah. Good. Yeah. I thought the Marvell keynote was good. I think Matt Murphy is a good public speaker. I think of the stories I've seen them tell over the last like say two years, I've always felt that Marvell has not done a good job of articulating who they are. Are they an ASIC company that also has interconnects? Are they an interconnect company that also makes custom ASICs? I think in this story they really try to position themselves as an interconnect company. And if I recall, they showed how like their revenue was, you know, the majority of it was from interconnects and then some of it was from ASICs. So I thought at least they narrowed in on like, hey, we're talking interconnects. Think of us as a connectivity company. And then, you know, they talked a lot about the copper wall and their portfolio. I did feel like they missed an opportunity to talk about how those two businesses can cross-sell each other. So like, hey, think about it. If you're Marvell and you're making an XPU for someone, it's not just about the XPU, it's also about the XPU attach. And a lot of that is around interconnects. And so the whole point that I'm trying to make is they can say like, we can work with hyperscale customers to make their XPU attach their data centers. It's really bespoke data centers, and that can help us sell into the interconnect there. And you know, vice versa, as we sell interconnects for people, maybe that's opportunities to get our interconnects into their systems and then maybe eventually sell some ASICs. Maybe that's not a story they want to tell because maybe these companies that they make the data centers for don't always buy their switches, for example. Maybe they're still buying Broadcom switches. So maybe that's not the true story. But I would love clarity. Are these two distinct businesses, or can they actually benefit each other and cross-sell? And they never seem to talk about that. So if anyone from Marvell is listening, one, I'd love an answer, and two, if you have a good answer, then you should tell that part of your story.
Yeah, absolutely. I was listening to the Bank of America conference today where Matt Murphy also spoke about like the interconnectivity, their connectivity products, and then in the middle he was also like, oh yeah, yeah, we also do some ASIC stuff too. So you know, I see what you mean by the disconnect there, but I guess their essential business is data movement. However you want to frame it, I guess you could say ASICs move data inside the chip.
That could be one framing. We are a data movement company within the chip as in the ASIC business, or between chips as in the interconnect business, you know, or between data centers in their DSP business. They have a very strong DSP business actually.
And I guess it is a bit counter-positioning against Broadcom, who of course has an amazing data movement business but spent a lot of the earnings call talking about the ASIC XPU business. I think that's also just what analysts want to ask a lot about. So it is, we are in an interesting world, I think, both for Broadcom and for Marvell, as they have these two different businesses to figure out what is the cohesive narrative, basically.
Yeah, that's true. So, you know, that leads to the question of if all of the interconnects today, you know, optical is used in scale-out, we know that, and there are still a lot of benefits to using copper or, you know, optics. It's not like one or the other yet. But, you know, as speeds go up, I think copper will run into its limitations. And so optics is nice. They have their entire portfolio around it. But I think what is more interesting to talk about is the scale-up scenario, because when Matt Murphy drew that line and included the rack in the optics thing, it's very interesting that now internally we may be seeing the birth of optics for scale-up. And recently there's been a lot of debate online about whether CPO is really here. When is it going to be here? Well, can we support optical engines and packaging them at scale? Because I don't think that we have done them at scale, like Spectrum-X and Quantum-X, and you know, Tomahawks from Broadcom have CPO, but they're just like one application and they're just coming into production this year. So nobody really knows if you can produce CPO at scale, if there's capacity to do so. And also if there is like the question of yield. Okay, the reason I'm saying yield is you're packaging in the TSMC CoWoS process. You're putting the optical engine on top of the electrical engine. And so I don't know how that can be done at scale. So I have no idea. They said something like, oh, we have 99% yield in engineering samples, but that doesn't mean you can scale up to, you know, millions of these things. So those are all like unknowns at the moment. And also there's the question of testing, you know, optical engines, because especially when you have two-sided die, it's a problem now because you have to align the top of the wafer and the bottom of the wafer to test them simultaneously, because you need the electrical side and the optical side to be aligned, and then you can test each one. And that alignment, from what I have read and spoken to people about, takes time. So that is a big unsolved problem, or a problem that is currently being solved in terms of testers and things like that. How do you test CPO fast enough to make it a reality? Right? And so CPO is definitely coming because we see it, we have to go to optical down the line. There's no way around it. But yeah, there are a lot of challenges. So maybe a lot of the discussion online has been like, why don't we go to near-packaged optics for now and we'll just not have to deal with the advanced packaging part of it at least. But then we can just do the silicon engines, optical engines in silicon photonics, and maybe put it into a socket. So, you know, that's the kind of discussion that's kind of out there right now. And it's interesting to see how it'll evolve. I don't think I have all the answers at the moment, but it's interesting.
Yeah. Yeah. I totally agree with you. I mean, ultimately, near-package optics takes a step in the right direction. Gets that electrical, yeah, a copper trace much shorter, but doesn't jump all the way to CPO. Feels like a decent intermediate step, especially when you think about manufacturing. And of course, then there's XPO, as we've already talked about, which I think will continue to extend pluggables. What else did you see? Much on NPO or XPO, or was it all CPO that you saw at the show?
So I want to talk about both of them actually. Let me go with XPO first, because the CPO one is also nice. So this is the first time I've seen an XPO module in person.
