We got to talk about crypto. You know, we've had this interesting pullback that no one ever sees coming, but of course no one ever sees the pullback coming. Just when you think it's going to end this year, God, I'm having terrible flashbacks to '21 because I still remember '21. I still remember the 69k all-time high. It was going to 100 grand by Christmas. Everybody was 100% certain. Lambos for everybody. And of course, when everyone's 100% certain, we know what the markets do, the opposite. And now that I look at the last few weeks, it feels like the exact same setup.
What do you tell people that don't understand why? Of course, the why isn't very important in Bitcoin, is it? But what do you tell people when they look at this and they panic? We're down to 85, 82k this morning.
Well, I mean, again, you know, I would tell people do your homework and either believe the fundamentals if you have the right thing or not, you know, and that volatility is your friend. This is a brand new asset. And volatility is your friend. And so, if you look at this right now, everything you just said is true. The expectation was Bitcoin was going to close the year at 150. It's sitting at 80, 85.
It's emotion driven, but it's also technically driven. And so, if you've got a lot of people loaded for bear and the consensus is it's going up and they're leveraged, and then you get hit and this is exogenous hits. And again, not blaming the president, but I'm just going to go back to October 10th. He's in a fight over the fentanyl. He's in a fight with the Chinese over the rare earth deals. Two weeks later, he's got it resolved after he meets with them in Asia, but he goes out, he puts out a threatening tweet, and it dislocates the market and it causes a cascade of margin calls. And so, I can point to October 10th. Could you mention '21 and I go to '22 in the FTX debacle.
Yeah. It takes, as my friend Tom Lee has said, when you get hit like you did on October 10th, it takes six to eight weeks for the market to adjust and for all the selling to cascade through the market as people are getting margin called and try to settle their situations. And so, I look at something as a 37-year veteran on Wall Street, I look at the fear and greed index. And I can tell you, when people are greedy, you know, and this index goes from 0 to 100, Brian. So, if you're at 100, that's extreme fear, lots of FOMO, lots of euphoria, market's going to collapse. Okay, when you're at 7, literally that's where we are right now, you're at 7, you're pretty much at the bottom. Everyone is extremely fearful, you know, this guy the gold bug...
Just last... His first name is Peter. Peter Schiff.
We had him on the show back in '07, by the way. It's crazy.
You know, I love this guy because he's been dead wrong about Bitcoin for 20 years, but he's got the drum going right now. And so, what ends up happening is you go through a bear market, the bears come out, they hate...
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Haters come out praying for the demise of SkyBridge or me or whatever and they're beating the drum, but the extreme fear indicates a long-term buying opportunity. So, I will stipulate Bitcoin 17 years old. I think it's continuing to be adopted. There's over 250 million wallets in use. I see it as a store of value. It's imperfect, but if you're betting against Bitcoin, I think you're going to lose long-term. You want to bet short-term, sure, but you know this and I know this, if you're out of the market for the 10 best days of a stock or for the 10 best days in a year of Bitcoin, you've missed most of the return. So, you either have to make it a decision that this is a long-term asset of yours or not. But one thing that is happening in Bitcoin that I do like, and that is aggressive OG selling.
Okay, so people that owned tens of thousands of Bitcoins that they bought them in 2010, 2008, 2009 are selling, and billions of dollars have been triggered over the last couple of months into this year, and I like that because that's now a... Why do I like that?
Because it's a supply. Yes, it's a recirculation. You want, if you really want a decentralized asset, I would... This would be like an IPO. You know, Jeff Bezos starts Amazon, he owns a majority of the shares. Now he's offering out some of those shares. And you know, the OG of Amazon, but he's liquidating some of his shares to create a greater population of shareholders. And I like that. Now, that comes with unfortunately pain. Because when you are untrapping lots of supply like we've had in the last year, it comes with pain. But I would say to you psychologically, because you've lived this, I've lived this, if I said to you, 'Hey, it's January of 2023.' And 2023. So, it's really only three short years ago, Brian, Bitcoin was at 16,000. Okay? And I said to you in January of '23, if I came into your office, I said, 'Brian, let me tell you the good news.' Well, you think this is good news. I'll ask you the question. Brian, I can see the future. November of 2025, Bitcoin's going to be 84,000 up from 16. Are you a happy camper?
