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Ken Brinsden
President, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, PMET Resources

Investor Webinar - Patriot Battery Metals (TSX:PMET) North American Presentation

📅 Nov 27, 2024 Resources Rising Stars 62 MIN 418 VIEWS 36 SEGMENTS · 2 SPEAKERS
Patriot Battery Metals Inc. (TSX: PMET) (ASX: PMT) President, CEO and Managing Director, Ken Brinsden, hosted a live investor webinar to provide shareholders and investors with an update on recent exploration and development activities at the Shaakichiuwaanaan Lithium Project in Quebec, Canada. Mr Brinsden provided an update on the extensive drilling program completed as part of the 2024 Summer-Fall program, the progress of the Pre-Feasibility Study, recently reported ESG initiatives and ongoing strategic and market engagement, as well as the outlook for 2025.

Questions asked in this interview

12
  1. 32:00For example, have you put the brakes on exploration activity?
  2. 34:59Firstly, how many years of production could you potentially get from the Nova Zone, and in what year of the mine plan would you expect to reach Nova?
  3. 36:28the Becancour chemical and battery plants, etc.?
  4. 38:16Are we more likely to see pricing continue to rebound or be eroded slowly by the additional supply?
  5. 40:32Can you please speak about the potential risk that low-quality spodumene, lepidolite and petalite from China and Africa could continue to keep lithium prices depressed for years, not months?
  6. 44:18Are there any strategic discussions going on in respect of their views or their strategy for Canada?
  7. 46:47And while we're talking exploration, could you also give us a few details around next year's exploration drill plan in relation to CV5, CV13, and the gap between those deposits?
  8. 49:48What Canadian, Quebec and/or US government funding opportunities is your team aware of?
  9. 51:29How is the company addressing these, and are these concerns justified?
  10. 55:51How interested in Quebec lithium assets are companies like Pilbara Minerals, MinRes, Piedmont, SQM, BHP, Anglo, and Japanese trading houses like Mitsubishi and Sumitomo?
  11. 57:27... federal and provincial governments for the expansion of the port of Bécancour by 2028 include the capability to export spodumene concentrate arriving from rail, or will that depend on definitive feasibility studies still to be published?
  12. 59:03The question is: what three or so factors drive your conviction that lithium prices are truly bottoming and turning around?
Nicholas Reed 0:03 ↗
Good morning everyone, thanks very much for joining us. My name is Nicholas Reed from Reed Corporate, and on behalf of Patriot Battery Metals, I'm very pleased to welcome you to this investor webinar and also to introduce Patriot's Managing Director, Ken Brinsden, and Head of Investor Relations, Olivier Cazal-Lao, both of whom join us from Montreal this morning. Good morning, gentlemen. Welcome to both of you.
Ken Brinsden 0:28 ↗
Thank you, Nick. Pleasure to be with you.
Nicholas Reed 0:30 ↗
Since the publication of the PEA for the Shaakani project in August-September this year, Patriot's been extremely busy advancing the project on multiple fronts. We're very pleased to have the opportunity to receive an update from Ken on what's been going on with the recent progress on a number of fronts, to provide us with an update on the pre-feasibility study, ESG initiatives, as well as ongoing strategic and market engagement. Importantly, both Ken and Olivier are here to answer some of the many questions that we have received before the start of this webinar. And for those who have tuned in, just a reminder that you're welcome to use the online Q&A portal on this webinar to post your questions. And Ken is going to run through a short presentation, around 20 minutes, and then we will open the forum to questions. So please take advantage of the opportunity to use that Q&A portal and to fire in as many questions as you'd like. With that short intro, I will now vacate the stage and hand over to Ken to run us through the presentation, and we'll be back after that for questions. Ken, great to see you. Please go ahead.
Ken Brinsden 1:47 ↗
Thank you very much, Nicholas. Thanks very much for hosting, and a pleasure to be with you and Olivier and those joining online. Thanks very much for taking the time and for tuning into the update. Yeah, keen to introduce Olivier, being our Head of IR in North America and Europe and a key contact in respect of information requirements, questions, and we'll do our best to answer. So please use Olivier as a key resource, and we'll likely hear some more from Olivier as we launch into Q&A a bit later in this morning's proceedings. So I'm going to provide an update, and I guess three key pieces of subject matter. A lot about the progress of the project, and this is where we've definitely had a big year, and I'm keen to impress upon you just how far the project has come, explain a little bit about the future progress or next steps in respect of the project's development. It's a tricky time in lithium markets, and of course a tricky time for share prices in the lithium world, none the least of which is our share price in Patriot. So I'm going to describe a bit of a picture around what we think is happening in the industry, but also why we think ultimately Shaakani is a really important part of solving for some of the challenges in the industry, and ultimately we think that's a really important key piece of the value equation for Patriot, and a little bit about demand and where that's headed. Some of that I think is probably misrepresented in the market, and especially when people get to thinking that lithium is in a ghost low mode. That's certainly not our perspective about where the industry is headed for the balance of this decade and early into next. So I'll launch straight into it, get stuck into some project detail. Please refer to our forward-looking statements. They're available online with this presentation lodged both on the ASX and with Cision for the purpose of the TSX. And on the Shaakani project, it's been a big year. We have a big project. There's no two ways about it. So when you have a big project, there is a lot of work to be done, but we definitely haven't shirked that. It's been a big year, in fact record drill meters during calendar 2024, 128,000 meters drilled, and big programs up to about 10 or 11 rigs, in fact peaking at 12 rigs during the course of the year, 10 or 11 rigs right up until the end of September. But also important to note for those that worry about the spend on site, that those programs are now wrapped up. So as of the middle of October, we're now in drill break, no drilling, and no drilling post the middle of October through until early next year where we will go back into drilling, and I'll explain what we're up to there as well. But they're definitely going to be smaller programs than what's been undertaken during the course of 2024. Now they're big programs for a reason, you know, we have a big project, no two ways about it. But when you have a big resource of which 120 million tons is at CV5 and about 20 million tons at CV13, when you have a big project in CV5, then there is a lot of drilling to infill, and that's exactly the job that we've been doing. Lots of infill required for a very big resource. So even during the summer-fall program, another 65,000 meters drilled, most of that concentrated in upgrading the resource. This is a really important task for the purpose of ultimately presenting a reserve for a contribution to our feasibility study. It's a feasibility study that's underway now, well advanced. I'll come back to explain a little bit more about the work that's going on there, but clearly you require that upgraded resource to underwrite the feasibility study. So that's the job that we've been up to. But also during the year, important drilling at CV13 and elsewhere, but CV13 being notable because of the Vega discovery. And this is also in its own way important because it speaks to the value in the geology on the CV trend. It is really special, and what we've discovered at, of course, CV13 and CV5 is key to that, but equally these high-grade zones and the Nova Zone in CV5, I'm going to come back to that one, but more recently discovered this year the Vega Zone. And I'm impressing upon you the significance of the Vega Zone because it's telling us a lot about what's going on at CV13, but especially on that northwest trend. So if I could point you to the bottom left-hand corner of the slide on the screen, we're looking at CV13, and what's been largely drilled to date was the outcropping zone, but the Vega zone is hidden underneath cover. And what we've discovered is that there's the Vega Zone, well our impression is the Vega zone is going to extend to the west-northwest, shown there on our picture in that lighter gray zone. This is an important part of our future drilling during 2025, and we have more results outstanding from the recent drill programs. In fact, the Vega zone was drilled late in the summer-fall program. We'll see those results coming through in the coming weeks, and we're looking forward to getting them out into the market. Another important zone, about 2.6 km squeezed between CV5 and CV13, and this is also a likely prospect for further growth. There's no doubt about it, we're onto a big system. It's highly likely that as we keep drilling, we'll inevitably grow the resource, and what we're learning is that as we keep drilling, there's a good chance we're going to find high-grade zones, and clearly that's been the case in the Nova and Vega zones. So an important part of the work that's been undertaken this year. But again, for those that worry about the ongoing spend, we've definitely broken the back of that now, and programs are on hold until early next year, at which stage we will start drilling, but they just won't be of the same scale. Sorry, last thing I'd like to point out on this slide, you can see lots of holes sitting to the north and the east of CV5. They're the technical drilling, the contributions to technical drilling that help with the feasibility study. So things like geomechanical drilling, geotechnical drilling, hydrogeological drilling, they're all important contributions to our feasibility study as well, a little bit of which we'll continue into the new year. I hope that all makes sense.
Okay, focusing in on what it means to have high grade. I'm going over old ground here, but I feel like it's really important to impress upon everyone what it means and how important it is. So here we're referencing the Nova Zone. We've previously described from the PEA mining trade-off study that we're going to approximately half the mine, one half underground, one half open pit. The underground component is deliberately targeting the Nova Zone. So we've highlighted approximately 21.6 million tons at an ASM grade, so that's after dilution and as-mined grade of 2.1% lithia. There is virtually no projects globally that can target those sorts of grades, and that's why it's such an important element of the combination of the geology, fantastic geology, but equally contributions to our feasibility study. So again, just a reminder, this is a really important part of our project development strategy, the underground component and targeting the Nova Zone. When you drill into the detail underground, so now we're looking at projected stopes, so these are the actual mining areas, you can see that grades are even higher again in certain locations. So here we're highlighting the Red Zone, a cross-section through the proposed underground development and the mining areas, and you can see some incredible stopes there. I think from memory it's approximately 27,000 tons at about 3.2% or of that order. So yeah, just another key pointer to the significance of this underground subset of the resource and the Nova Zone. So what does that mean? And here we're getting into the detail of the works underway in the feasibility study. First packages of work that contribute to the feasibility study are the trade-offs around the sequence of mining. This is an important package of work to us because ideally we'd like to accelerate the underground development and access the Nova Zone earlier. That's a key target that we're working on. We're not quite at the end result yet, but nonetheless the team is working really hard on getting there, and we'll probably have more to say about this in the coming month or so. And the idea being that we're adding value to the project by bringing forward that high-grade Nova Zone. So that's an important part of the work that's underway, and that then contributes to the base premise that was previously identified in the PEA, that is that it's a two-stage development, still in essence the same model, 400,000 tons of spodumene concentrate in stage one, another 400,000 tons of spodumene concentrate in stage two for a total 800,000 tons per annum of spodumene concentrate. High rates of recovery, simple DMS processing, they all contribute to really competitive operations, and we'd like to add more value by ensuring that we get to that high grade first and make a key contribution there in the value in the project. So really important work that's underway, and the team is working really, really hard on making sure that we deliver that. By the way, the feasibility study on track for a September quarter completion of next year, and that's important as we think about the progress of our project approvals, which is where I'll head next. Key to the development of a future project at Shaakani is the relationship with the Cree, because the Cree are deeply integrated in the combination of the approvals process, the progress of the mine, and ultimately, in essence, partnering around the development of the Shaakani project. But we are really proud of the relationship that we're building with the Cree and the community at Chisasibi. Very, very frequent community consultation, spending time in the community, having community members working out at Shaakani, and that's been a very important objective, and high rates of employment in fact are occurring. That was especially true during the course of this year as we finished off the construction around infrastructure positions, the camp and the road and the like, and all of that is contributing to a really positive relationship. That's important because the Cree are at the same table for the purpose of the approvals process that I'll come to shortly, and we think that's all heading in the right direction and a really important contribution to the value in the project development. The other thing that's been a big year, and Alex Drapek, our ESG Vice President, describes it as a banger of a year because we got through so much work during the summer and fall field seasons to the point now where we are largely complete, almost a full three seasons' worth of data collected now, and that's creating a really big and useful database for the development of our ESIA documentation. Any work outstanding in the field now we consider to be dotting our i's and crossing our t's, and in the work undertaken to date, we don't think that there's anything that would be described as either abnormal or unusual or otherwise create further complication with respect to your approvals process. Everything that we've seen, we think looks very normal, in which case the development of our ESIA documentation now just fulfills the normal course, the attachment of things like management plans for flora and fauna, all those things that you'd expect for the development of an ESIA and its presentation in the September quarter next year. It's on track as well as the feasibility study. As I said, anything that's outstanding now we would put in the category of it's a simple check. We've done sufficient work to understand the site area and the local surrounds, and we're not expecting any issues in respect of the information that's been collected so far. That's important as we think about the next steps. So where do we go from here? So feasibility underway, on track for September quarter next year. Finish the baseline work for the purpose of ESIA documentation, and those documents will also be ready for submission in the September quarter of next year. The next step is the formal deliberation by the combination of COMEV and COMEX. Now here we're articulating a strategy to indicate that we can complete the COMEX process for mine authorization in 24 months. That's our estimate, but we've often had people say to us, well, how do you come up with that estimate? We hear all the horror stories about the approvals process. Well, we're here to tell you it's not a horror story. In fact, there are examples where the progress of the COMEX deliberation has occurred much faster than 24 months. The Storåsen diamond mine was completed in 12 months from ESIA and feasibility submission to mine authorization. The NAL lithium mine was completed in nine months from the presentation of ESIA documentation and the feasibility study, and therefore we think our estimate of 24 months, oh sorry, and also in light of a relatively recent proposal being the Arcadium, or formerly Livent, and then formally before that the Galaxy project or Galaxy's project, 28 months from ESIA submission, feasibility submission through to COMEX authorization. Now that one I would like to backfill with a bit more information. That project in roughly that same period of time changed hands. It was bought and sold twice through the mergers that stepped through Galaxy, Livent, and now rebadged as Arcadium, or now Rio, I suppose. But it was a project that was partially progressed, partially stopped, and the scope was changed. So to have it progress in 28 months, we still think is a reasonable analogy for the progress of our project. Anyway, suffice to say, our estimate of 24 months, we don't think it's overly conservative, but we equally don't think and unlikely to be aggressive. Quebec, in summary, and especially the James Bay region, is a good location for sophisticated progress of both Cree or First Nations engagement and project approvals. It has a good track record, and it's right up there with probably the best around the world. So for those that fear Quebec and the James Bay region for the purpose of approvals, we would simply say, yes, of course you have to do high-quality work, and yes, you have to be deeply engaged with the Cree. But on the assumption that you've done that, you have reasonable prospects for a timely approval. In fact, I would suggest it's right up there with probably the best around the world. There's not many Western world locations where you can achieve a project approval in, you know, under two years. So yeah, we just want to impress upon everyone, do not fear the approvals process. And I'm pleased and in fact proud of the team's efforts to make sure that we are doing high-quality work and that we have a solid relationship with the Cree. I hope that all makes sense. So moving on to a bit of discussion about the market and how the industry is constructed. The first point to make is just how dominant China is in the lithium-ion supply chain, and that's particularly true from the concept of value-added chemicals now, right through to cell-making capacity, and now I would argue into cars. They're producing high-quality and cost-competitive products, and it's that dominance in the lithium-ion supply chain that represents a key challenge for the West. So when people say to me, you know, do you fear, for example, Trump tariffs or even disparaging comments about new energy and the EV sector, I would simply say this grossly simplifies the problem for the US and the Western world as a whole. It's not even now a question of whether you can compete with China, it's actually now whether you're going to survive. So if you follow the logic in the combination of tariffs and the potential for that leading into trade wars, I've got to say that actually what the end game looks like is how demonstrable and weak the Western supply chains actually are. And with that as a backdrop, you are highly likely to see targeted investment to create those alternative supply chains. And that's why we ultimately think this concept of geopolitical risk and the potential in trade wars is ultimately value-adding to a supply chain solution that includes Shaakani, a really large, high-grade, competitive cost project in the right jurisdiction that helps flow supply to North America and Europe. To me, that's the key. And in the end, there is a bit of a rude awakening, I suspect, that's coming to show how weak those Western supply chains are. There's been a couple of examples in the press recently that are a bit of insight into where the direction that all of this likely takes. So one example story in the Global Times, it relates to a specialist battery coming out of China supporting a drone manufacturer in Taiwan, and China shut the gate and switched off the battery supply. And the American company involved in this case, well, it's in Taiwan but owned in America, you know, has complained about having those batteries switched off, but it's just one insight into the power that China ultimately holds in respect of supply to the West. Another example in the critical mineral sphere, in this case a story by Reuters looking at gallium and germanium, which are in the specialist categories in the critical mineral sphere, but I think are telling as to the extent to which China can ultimately close the gate and/or control supply. So in summary, what it means is the West has no choice but to continue to invest in the alternative, and that's why we think ultimately Shaakani is an important element. Okay, moving on to demand, because yeah, I also hear people speak about, you know, the concept of weakness in North American markets and in Europe, and I hear you, but I sort of only would simply suggest that's a relatively short-term phenomenon, especially in light of thinking about where all those critical products come from, from, you know, being principally China. So think about what's already been constructed in North America. So here we're looking at a slide that relates to either already installed or under construction capacity of cell making and cathode materials. There is already significant investment that's made its way into North America that is supplied by the China supply chain. So imagine a circumstance where that pre-existing capacity can no longer access value-added chemicals or cathode materials to make lithium-ion battery cells. Clearly there has to be an alternative if the product is not available from China, and they're already constructed. So it's not even about future demand, it's what's already existing. So that's one aspect. Oh, by the way, sorry, I should say that map looks very similar when you look at Europe. Lots of gigafactory and cathode material capacity has gone in. Certainly the cell-making capacity looks very similar in Europe, and exactly the same problem exists there, principally supplied by China. And then you think about the direction that the market is taking. So where are we at by the end of the 20s into the 30s? Well, the market still has to grow by consensus view approximately three times between now and 2030, roughly speaking, 1 million tonnes LCE versus 3 million tonnes LCE demand in approximately 2030, and clearly that requires continued major expansion of the industry. What's motivating that? Well, there's a reasonable chance that it's still already being underestimated because of what's really happening in the lithium-ion battery world. Whilst it's continuing to grow in the range of 20 to 30% per annum, there is also new markets emerging, and I want to reflect on an anecdote that relates to where CATL is up to. So CATL, China's preeminent lithium battery manufacturer, my anecdote stretches all the way back to 2016, 2017 in my former life, very solid relationship with CATL, and they would tell us back then, so now what's that, seven or eight years ago, they would tell us, we think that the mass energy storage market, or sometimes called the static energy storage market for lithium-ion cells, is bigger, much bigger than EVs, and in fact EVs are just a stepping stone to get us to mass energy storage. And here we are seven or eight years later, and their boss, Robin Zeng, has come out in the public domain and said as much. So Reuters reported on this earlier this month, saying that CATL believes the energy storage market is going to be materially bigger than EVs. And when you think about it, of course it likely is, and they're realizing their dream. We somewhat scoffed at that dream back in 2016, 2017, but here we are today. I would suspect for all of us, we're now true believers. Why? Because China has pushed the cell cost down to levels never imagined, well, certainly never imagined seven or eight years ago, but that's now a practical outcome today. So in that slide picture on the top right, the likes of CATL and BYD and others have pushed LFP cell costs down by orders of magnitude in just 18 months or less, actually, from $125 per kilowatt hour at an LFP cell level down to approximately just above $50 a kilowatt hour as of earlier this year, and likely still going down. So when you think about what China's been able to achieve there, the adoption of lithium iron cells for the purpose of mass energy storage and of course EVs is real and is already happening. It's not something to be imagined, it's not a future event, it's actually already happening. So what does that mean? It means that the next wave of demand, as those cells make their way into broader markets or the addressable market grows, that's the industry term for it, is going to turn on more capacity, and that's where the next demand shock comes from. And I'm confident that's also going to result in a price spike. As to where it goes in terms of pricing, well, that's anybody's guess, but the demand, key point, the demand is not going away. In fact, it's likely higher demand than currently assumed in Western market models, principally motivated by what China is up to and the speed with which they are moving the market, that being underestimated by the West. So we can be optimistic about the combination of demand growth and our position in respect of that demand growth as an alternative to Western supply and value-added supply. The last point I'd like to make is how do we compete with China? Because of the phenomenons that I've described here, and actually in the scheme of things, it's not as hard as people might imagine. So China wins today in lithium-ion cells because they've invested in, and cars because they've invested in the supply chain, mainly from value-added chemicals onwards. They don't typically have access to a first-class raw material supply base. In fact, a lot of what they access is in the scheme of things lesser quality supply, and I would argue typically higher cost. So where the West can create a direct competitive position to China's dominance in the industry is by attaching the world's best mines in the West to value-added chemical capacity, and that's the way to differentiate your supply chain from what's currently principally derived from China. So great mines, and of course we would argue Shaakani is one of them, and of course it's in the right location, connected to Western-facing chemical capacity, is the way to differentiate from the China supply chain and ultimately compete with them. Their raw material supply base is not the lowest cost. Some of what's being built and available in the West is the world's lowest cost supply. We have to attach it to Western-facing chemical capacity, and that's the way to compete with China's dominance in the lithium-ion battery supply chain. So yeah, we think we're an important part of that solution, and the good news is there are counterparties that view that model in the same light as we do, and it creates useful conversations about how to construct that Western future-facing supply chain for North American and European growth in demand. I hope that makes sense. Okay, so in summary, we are going to continue to keep drilling because we value the significance of the geological trend at Shaakani. Now those programs won't be as big as programs during former years, but nonetheless we'll be drilling just with a smaller footprint, definitely not the 10 or 11 or even 12 rigs that we had operating during the course of this year. We're going to continue to keep de-risking the project by further developing the relationship with the communities in the James Bay region, but especially the Cree, and we're going to keep pushing the feasibility study, but ultimately value-adding the feasibility study so that we end up with the right development scenario that creates the highest value and also the most flexibility, if you like, from a Shaakani development point of view. A further demonstration of how significant this project is in combination of scale, grade, low cost, and location, and its value in being connected to Western-facing chemical supply. The work that we do to ingratiate ourselves within the supply chain, and ultimately we would suggest that translating to deals in the supply chain is a really important value add to Patriot and the Shaakani project. So we look forward to demonstrating how that's going to...
unfold. And Nicholas, I think that's it for the presentation materials, but I look forward to the insightful questions that I'm sure are going to emerge. Back to you, thank you.
Nicholas Reed 32:00 ↗
Thanks very much, Ken. That's a great run through. We have a lot of questions, so I'm going to do my best to rattle through them as quickly as possible, and I'll jump between questions online and questions that we received via email. So apologies if I jump around a bit, but let's get into it. The first one here was an email question. An investor asks whether the company has adjusted its strategy in order to conserve cash and delay the need to dilute the share register at current depressed prices. For example, have you put the brakes on exploration activity?
Ken Brinsden 32:38 ↗
Yeah, yeah, no, I completely understand the question and the direction it's taking, and I think I can largely confirm that the strategy described there is pretty consistent with the way we think about the future of drilling at James Bay. I would reinforce we have deliberately done bulk programs during 2024, but they're all about ensuring that we have upgraded the resource at CV5 and therefore can maintain the timeline for the CV5 feasibility study. That's a really important objective to ensure we hold the timeline for the broader project development. Now, the good news is that those programs, those massive sort of bulk programs to infill, are now complete. In which case, whatever CV5 drilling remains, actually in the scheme of things, is relatively minor. A little bit of sterilization drilling, some more geotechnical drilling, a little bit of hydrogeological drilling, but quite literally, you know, two rigs as compared to 10 to 12 rigs, so orders of magnitude lesser scale in those programs. And yes, of course, that translates to materially lesser spend.
To be clear, as of approximately the middle of October, we had finished drilling. We're in the change of season now between the fall and the winter. Clearly not a good time to be drilling, so we aren't. And when we restart during the winter program, it's at a materially lesser scale than was undertaken in 2024. But it does include a mixture of little bits of drilling that contribute to the feasibility study and exploration, because we're still keen to demonstrate the value in things like CV13 and the Vega Zone, teasing out the tons between CV5 and CV13, and a little bit about the next round of exploration potential, CV9, CV12, and the like. But again, just reinforcing, they are much, much smaller programs, and of course we are conscious of what we're doing with respect to our cash.
Nicholas Reed 34:59 ↗
Thanks, Ken. Let's go to a couple of online questions. Firstly, how many years of production could you potentially get from the Nova Zone, and in what year of the mine plan would you expect to reach Nova?
Ken Brinsden 35:14 ↗
Yeah, this is actually key to the progress of the work underway in the feasibility study, but a broad brush perspective would be that with approximately 20 million tons so far in the Nova Zone, at a stage one production rate of 400,000 tons per annum of spodumene concentrate, that still translates to, I would suggest, a minimum of about 10 years' worth of mine life. So clearly not, well, in itself actually carries a reasonable amount of scale. But the bigger picture is that the targeted mine life is in the order of approximately 20 years once you take into account the bigger picture project. But yes, that's right, in the Nova Zone, still not insubstantial in its own right, and approximately 10 years' worth of supply at that higher grade that I described earlier in the presentation materials. Now, the feasibility study is going to tease out that detail, and our expectation is that we'll come back with further description about how that gets built into the final feasibility study in the coming month or two.
Nicholas Reed 36:28 ↗
Thanks, Ken. I've got a series of questions that were emailed in from a market participant, so I'll quickly run through these. First one is: is there any read-through on President Trump's potential 25% tariff on Canadian goods to the battery sector, i.e. the Becancour chemical and battery plants, etc.?
Ken Brinsden 36:49 ↗
Yeah, lots of rhetoric there in Trump's comments, and it feels to me like a decent chunk of that is positioning for whatever negotiation is yet to unfold. My personal view is it's an overly simplistic view of the world for all the reasons I described earlier in the presentation. If in fact you believe that there should be tariffs, no matter where they're placed, whether it's Canada or on Chinese imports, what you're really ignoring is the value in either the product or source of ores that you can't produce locally today. That's the first point I'd make. You're going to be exposed, I guess is my view, as to how weak Western supply chains and especially those US supply chains are today. How does that translate to... well, I think opportunity. James Bay is so well placed as a logical feed source for the US and North America more broadly that it's impossible to ignore. And why would you, if you're fuming, why would you establish a tariff regime when in fact it solves a big problem for you in light of how much you actually have to source from China today? So I guess I'm pushing back on the premise that it's actually realistic in any case. It's really just positioning and a bit of political rhetoric for a broader negotiation that I'd imagine unfolds in the coming year or so.
Nicholas Reed 38:16 ↗
Thanks, Ken. The next one is: following deferred expansions that we've seen from Albemarle, Pilbara and so on this quarter, how does that affect future supply, and can Patriot potentially fill that gap, or is that prior to your initial production timeline? Are we more likely to see pricing continue to rebound or be eroded slowly by the additional supply?
Ken Brinsden 38:41 ↗
Yeah, yeah, a couple of things to note in that question. The first is that some of that supply coming out of the market has either been in the public domain or in fact not that well publicized. So I would argue Chinese domestic production that's come out of the market and probably African supply that's come out of the market is actually more pronounced than what's been announced in the West. That would be the first point I'd make. It just doesn't get as much airtime. Secondly, it's one thing to note supply change, but another, I would argue, bigger driver, so that has a shorter duration effect, and clearly we're going through that now. That's frustrating, I completely accept that, but don't lose sight of the fact that the demand growth is continuing. In fact, demand conditions, I would argue, are actually still pretty good. You know, any industry that's growing in the range of 20 to 30% per annum is very, very significant growth, and that's much more likely to swamp the supply equation faster than you would currently assume. So I look at it more from a demand point of view and want to suggest that actually that's the bit that likely surprises to the upside, and that's why I think you are likely to see a price spike from our point of view in the right direction sooner than most people would currently credit it for, just simply because the industry is growing much faster and likely China's influence in the market is more pronounced than it's currently given credit for by Western analysts. So how does all that translate to price? Well, yeah, I think a materially higher price as compared to today's price that ultimately is required to sustain the industry.
Nicholas Reed 40:32 ↗
I might just jump to a related online question, Ken. Can you please speak about the potential risk that low-quality spodumene, lepidolite and petalite from China and Africa could continue to keep lithium prices depressed for years, not months?
Ken Brinsden 40:50 ↗
Yeah, yeah, in explaining this thesis, I'm going to take you into a parallel analogy. I have to be sort of frank and say I don't really worry about the long run with respect to those sources of supply, and it's mainly because China's motivated by something completely different compared to, say, Western markets. What China, in inspiring those lower quality resources, and I would argue higher cost resources to market, what they're really protecting against was $50,000 to $80,000 a ton chemicals or even $5,000 to $8,000 a ton spodumene. So they rush to market to produce or create a supply base that has the effect of stopping $50,000 and $80,000 a ton chemicals, not ultimately to create $10,000 or $1,000 a ton chemicals. There's a valuable analogy that explains this thesis, and I'm going to take you back to iron ore in the early 2010s. You know, 2012 especially, 2011, 2012, they were big years in iron ore, and iron ore approached and in fact reached $200 a ton. And in response, China developed a significant supply base from within China based on magnetite supply, and it was touted as being world-leading low cost and a useful supply base to help protect China from $200 a ton iron ore. But within about three years, most of those magnetite had closed, and they're now rusting in the back blocks in China because they were really found out as iron ore precipitously fell to sub-$40 US a ton. Now, in the intervening period, the iron ore market has stabilized, and it now struggles to fall below $100 a ton. In fact, I think the lowest it's been in the last sort of three or four years is about $85 a ton. That to me is a really important analog to what's happening today in lithium raw materials. China rushed to market to create what they tout as being a very valuable and long-run supply base, but the reality is actually something completely different. It's not that great. Projects are being high-graded. They haven't really drilled out the resource. Is it actually sustainable at $10,000 to $15,000 US a ton chemicals? And I would say, I would argue, probably not. In fact, it's highly likely that it's not. So therefore it starts to fall out of the market. I think some of that has already started to happen, but I would hazard a guess and say there's a lot more, and you see the price stabilize in something that creates a more useful incentive price in the market. Often people will ask me what that is. Well, you know, in the range of sort of $25,000 to $35,000 a ton to me probably makes sense to facilitate the sort of growth that's required in lithium raw materials. And then the other anecdote I'd share is that you talk to contacts in China and they don't really disagree. They don't like today's price either. It's not the right answer for the industry, and it is not going to allow it to grow. So will you see prices normalize over time? Clearly we will, in my view.
Nicholas Reed 44:18 ↗
Thanks, Ken. There's a number of questions about Albemarle and the strategic relationship there. Can you talk to that relationship? Are they still active partners? Are there any strategic discussions going on in respect of their views or their strategy for Canada?
Ken Brinsden 44:37 ↗
Yeah, it's been well publicized, I think, you know, key strategics that own shares in Patriot, and of course Albemarle being one of them. As far as we are aware, they're all still shareholders in the same way that they were two, three, five, eight, twelve months ago. So we don't believe that anything has changed, at least to the best of our knowledge. In respect of the relationship with Albemarle, we definitely still value that relationship and are still in contact with them. We would hazard a guess and say they still value our project as well. Now, we didn't take forward more detailed work to look at the interconnection between James Bay and future Albemarle chemical supply because it was clear they could not invest, at least not in the same way that they originally envisaged, because of the current market conditions. And we completely understand that they're in a difficult position for all the investments they're making around the world. So a longer-dated investment like chemicals in the US and/or further investment in Patriot is difficult under those circumstances. So we understand that and completely understand their position. But I don't think that means that they've given up on the project or, for that matter, that we've given up on future relationships growing with Albemarle. But we just can't do that today. So what that's led to is Patriot being engaged with a broader suite of supply chain participants, some of whom are genuinely looking at similar models that we're looking to connect James Bay to Western-facing value-added chemical capacity. And of course we welcome those discussions because ultimately we think that's the right solution to see both our company grow, but equally these new supply chains emerge with quality projects underwriting them like James Bay.

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APA

Brinsden, K. (2024, November 27). Investor Webinar - Patriot Battery Metals (TSX:PMET) North American Presentation [Interview transcript]. Resources Rising Stars. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3055281/

MLA

Ken Brinsden. "Investor Webinar - Patriot Battery Metals (TSX:PMET) North American Presentation." Resources Rising Stars, 27 Nov. 2024. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3055281/.

BibTeX
@misc{brinsden2024_3055281,
  author       = {Ken Brinsden},
  title        = {Investor Webinar - Patriot Battery Metals (TSX:PMET) North American Presentation},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, Resources Rising Stars. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2024},
  month        = {nov},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3055281/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}