was a thriving center of international commerce and diplomacy, connecting East and West. Thailand prospered not by standing apart from the world, but by being connected to it. The spirit of openness has endured. In the year 1991, we hosted the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank at a time when the world was moving towards greater economic integration. Today, 35 years later, we welcome the world back to Bangkok and to this very convention center, originally built for this event back in 1991.
But the world we meet in today is markedly different from the one we knew 35 years ago. Back then, the fax machine represented speed. Today, AI is transforming our activities and our way of life. The world was moving towards greater economic integration. Today, geopolitical fragmentation is reshaping trade and investment. And while environmental protection was once an emerging concern, climate change has become one of our greatest challenges. The world has changed profoundly, and challenges of this scale require us to respond together. And that is why our theme, Thailand's New Horizon: Empowering People, Building Resilience, speaks not only to Thailand's future but to the future of us all.
Resilience grows through trusted connections, open trade, access to technology and finance, partnerships that help countries learn from one another. The annual meetings of 1991 left a lasting legacy. This convention center is one visible reminder. But the more important legacy was the commitment to international dialogue and cooperation at a moment of profound global change. Today, the challenges may be different, but our responsibility remains the same. Meetings and legacies continue. So, what legacy should Bangkok 2026 leave behind? For Thailand, the answer begins with a role we know well: to connect.
We can connect markets across regions, capital with opportunities, and technology with talent. Through ASEAN, Thailand can bring regional partners together and connect them with the wider world. We believe regional cooperation and global engagement should reinforce one another, opening opportunities for trade, investment, and shared development. Most importantly, this connection must reach people, helping business grow, building skills, and creating opportunities that improve everyday lives. Empowering people means ensuring that more communities can take part in and benefit from economic transformation.
Together with the IMF and the World Bank and our partners and all of us here, let us turn dialogue into partnerships and finance into opportunities. Let us ensure that decisions taken here lead to stronger economies and better opportunities for people. Ladies and gentlemen, centuries ago, Ayutthaya, our old capital, connected Thailand to the world. Bangkok can help connect countries around a shared purpose, making the global economy work for more people. Let us make this meeting count for people across our countries. We will see each other again in the next 35 years here. Thank you very much.
In 1991, the world came together in Bangkok for the IMF-World Bank annual meetings, and confronted a very difficult issue of balancing the needs. A lot has changed in 35 years. How we work, trade, communicate, the way we see the world. Now here we are again, together, inspired by Asia's remarkable transformation, looking toward new horizons. The challenges might be different, but the mission is still the same: providing firm foundations to build and grow, a source of stability, helping countries build resilience in an uncertain world. We are partners in progress, offering insight, analysis and advice, knowledge sharing, capacity development, and lending. Making investments so all benefit from a brighter tomorrow. And in a world that's always moving, we're adapting too. Listening, learning to mobilize markets, people, and jobs to harness new technologies to lift people up. Because the work connecting people, ideas and capital never stops. The desire to make life better. The push toward innovation and growth for a future where everyone prospers.
Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister, for your remarks and for taking the time to join us today. We are very honored and grateful for your presence. So inspiring video, really. Now, as it is customary in these meetings for the Chair to address the governors, I should proceed this way.
Excellencies, honorable governors, distinguished colleagues, it is an honor to welcome you to the 2026 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group. Let me start by expressing my deep gratitude to the Thai authorities and people for their incredible hospitality and organization of these meetings. I would also like to offer my sincere condolences to the royal family and to the people of Thailand during this period of national mourning, and express our solidarity with the people of Bangkok for the loss of life and damage caused by the recent flooding.
35 years ago, the IMF and the World Bank Group convened in Bangkok for the annual meetings in this very convention center. Since then, Thailand has undergone a remarkable transformation, but the dynamism and warmth of the Thai people have remained constant. We meet at a precarious time. War and geopolitical tensions, global debt, trade frictions, natural disasters, and climate risk are amplifying economic uncertainty. Our shareholders are confronting an increasingly constrained financing environment. Emerging markets and developing economies are facing the weakest per capita income growth since the pandemic, and rising debt is driving up borrowing costs, affecting governments, businesses, and the everyday lives of people.
The challenges we face are impossible to solve alone. And this is why we are here. It's because we believe in the power of collective action, and because the IMF and the World Bank Group are invaluable partners to us on this journey. I know firsthand what partnership with these essential institutions can deliver. Only a few decades ago, Paraguay stood at an economic crossroads with a sharp recession, steep currency depreciation, and double-digit inflation. With the IMF and World Bank Group by our side, the Paraguayan people embarked on a decades-long journey of homegrown economic reform and development.
With IMF support, we not only restored macroeconomic stability and strengthened fiscal institutions, but we also built capacity that helped us weather several shocks that we have all experienced in recent years. At the same time, the World Bank Group supported Paraguay's development by investing in our people and strengthening and building critical infrastructure. Today, Paraguay is one of the fastest-growing economies in South America, and our strong track record of economic policymaking has earned us investment-grade status for the first time in our history.
But as the world changes, our institutions, frameworks, and tools must also adapt. Just this year, the IMF and World Bank Group collaborated on important reviews of joint work that will affect how they serve members for years to come. The joint reviews of the DSA sustainability framework for low-income countries and the Financial Sector Assessment Program incorporated profound changes in the financing landscape for low-income members. These reviews also strengthen early warning capacity with stronger coverage of emerging risks in the financial sector and cyber security.
The IMF also completed the comprehensive surveillance review and the review of program design and conditionality, which will make its surveillance and lending more responsive, tailored to country needs, and impactful. Complementing these efforts, the IMF is advancing its work on understanding global imbalances. The World Bank Group has taken significant steps to simplify its operations and processes and to mobilize far more private capital while making job creation the centerpiece of its development agenda. The results speak for themselves. In fiscal year 2026, the World Bank Group more than tripled its private capital mobilization. This capital is delivering tangible impact, driving economic growth, creating jobs, and transforming people's lives.
In addition to creating jobs, we must prepare for the future. We are all seeking to understand how best we can use artificial intelligence to drive growth, make work more efficient, and push the frontiers of innovation. I am pleased to see that the IMF and the World Bank Group are moving forward and featuring this topic prominently at these meetings. From helping countries manage the macroeconomic and labor market implications of AI to providing development strategies for small AI, both institutions are focused on helping members harness the potential of this technology while balancing its risks.
We are at a consequential moment, but the global economy has navigated momentous shifts before. When Bangkok last hosted the annual meetings, few could have predicted the vast progress the next 35 years would bring. The future may be uncertain, but the actions we take today will help define it. Together, let us set a course toward another 35 years of shared prosperity and transformative growth. Thank you.
Well, let us now turn to the formal business of the institutions. We have before us the reports and recommendations of the Joint Procedures Committee. Report one covers the business of the Fund. Report two covers the business of the IBRD, IFC, and IDA, and report three concerns matters of common interest to all organizations. We also have the report of the Procedures Committee of the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency. On the recommendation of the Joint Procedures Committee and the MIGA Procedures Committee, I propose the adoption of these reports and the recommendations contained therein. As there is no objection, the reports and recommendations are adopted.
On matters related to the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes, I ask Mr. Banga, as Chair of the Administrative Council, to take the floor.
Thank you very much, Chair. The annual meeting of the ICSID Administrative Council is now open, and Mr. Kumar Kapoor will introduce the items for consideration by the council.
Thank you, Chair. Congratulations to ICSID on its 60th anniversary and the first regional office in Singapore. Welcome to Honduras as the 159th contracting state. There are two items on the ICSID agenda this year that call for the adoption of resolutions by the council. First, to approve the 2026 ICSID Annual Report, and second, to adopt the administrative budget for fiscal year 2027. The draft resolutions have been distributed to members earlier. It is proposed that the draft resolutions of the ICSID 2026 Annual Report and the ICSID administrative budget for fiscal year 2027 be adopted.
So I take it that the two resolutions are adopted, and the 2026 annual meeting of the ICSID Administrative Council is now adjourned. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Mr. Banga and Mr. Kumar Kapoor. Now I would like to invite the Managing Director of the IMF, Ms. Georgieva, to deliver her annual address.
Good morning to all. I would like to start with a series of thanks to the IMF membership present here and represented in Washington by our excellent board, for your enduring trust. We exist to serve you. To Thailand, our gracious host, His Prime Minister, Excellency Prime Minister Anutin, Deputy Prime Minister and Kit, the whole team — how fitting it is to see the beautiful royal barge. It reminds us we are all in the same boat.
To colleagues at the World Bank for being our partners. AJ, our institutions pursue our duties in different ways, but we row together. And to Governor Carvallo, this year's Chair of the Board of Governors, your country, Paraguay, shows all the hallmarks of maturity. You make me want to retire the emerging markets label. I also want to recognize my colleagues, the management and the staff of the IMF. We are drawn from 161 countries, yet we all are sworn to serve the global public good. Please stand up. I'm so proud of you, for your hard work, for your commitment to our members.
My task today is simple: provide a brief overview of the world economy, shaped increasingly by AI, and a succinct report on how we at the IMF serve the membership. Let me start from my conviction that no matter what the zigzags of history may be, the world is on an improving path, but good outcomes are not granted. We have to work hard for them. And as we do, we need to make the most of the opportunities we create and manage the risks for the sake of all people, whoever they may be, wherever they may be.
Today our boat is being lashed by the waves of technology and geopolitics. Our ability to twist and turn and maneuver is impaired by a heavy load of public debt. So far, the boat has proven to be resilient, but keeping it this way, keeping it afloat, will require considerable effort. Technology has been with us since the beginning of time. So what is new about it? What is new is the sheer speed with which things are changing. On top of AI, an exciting but also scary thing, we also have advanced robotics, quantum computing, the hyper cloud, fintech, and medicine.
In geopolitics, an air of mistrust adds security concerns to countries' traditional focus on economic efficiency. Discontent with the world trading system in some places triggers disruption, and from Ukraine to the Gulf we see an arc of war. Given the sweeping changes, it is remarkable how steady the world economy has been. In October 25 last year, we forecast growth for 26 at 3.1%. One year later, now still 3.1%. Trade meanwhile has flown around all obstacles. This steady growth is the net result of two big opposing forces: an energy shock hurting growth and an AI boom lifting it.
But digging deeper, we see significant divergence. War-hit economies have suffered large growth downgrades, while economies in the AI value chain — US, China, India and others, mostly in Asia — enjoy upgrades. And too many countries carry too much debt. Rich countries are the worst offenders, but debt levels are rising in emerging markets too. Low-income countries tend to have lower public debt-to-GDP ratios, but still high and rising interest burdens. Coming on top of declining official aid, this crowds out development spending.
The macroeconomic consequences of this cross-current are clear. First, the energy supply shock pushes inflation up and growth down. Shipping remains in peril. Refinery and natural gas shortfalls are biting. Northern countries need to rebuild their fuel reserves as winter is coming. Second, high debts and deficits hurt countries' ability to buffer shocks and can also be inflationary. And while growth helps, no plausible growth pickup on its own can reverse rising debt paths fast enough without fiscal effort.
Third, yes, the rapid arrival of AI pushes growth up, but it too fuels inflation in the short run. AI generates vast infrastructure needs, increasingly funded by debt. Certainly, productivity gains are coming and more are expected, but how much and how fast is yet to be seen. In addition, this year El Niño also adds to inflationary pressures, impacting food prices, which hurts the poor the most, and causing other disruptions.
One outcome of all this is that the bond markets are talking to us. After significant increases this year, US, German, and Japanese 10-year sovereign yields recently reached their highest levels since 2002, 2009, and 1996. These rising benchmark rates lift yields in both emerging markets and advanced economies, including in the Euro area. Higher-debt countries see larger increases, as is to be expected. Importantly though, and that's the good news, market dynamics remain orderly.
With multiple factors pushing inflation upward and with memories of the recent high inflation still fresh, central banks should be laser-focused on price stability. We at the IMF support the recent tightening stance and firm language from the US Federal Reserve, from the ECB, and the Bank of Japan. And let's remember, hikes today are better than falling behind the curve and having to double down with larger rate increases tomorrow. Nonetheless, tighter monetary policy does lift government funding costs, and more rapidly if short-term public debt is large.
So where are we? The inescapable bottom line is that preserving stability requires fiscal consolidation in most high-debt countries. Governments need to develop credible medium-term fiscal plans supported by upfront measures. In some cases, our call for fiscal restraint is particularly relevant for systemically significant advanced economies with high debt and deficit — not only to benefit them, but also so they can help others, given that they can generate significant spillovers to the rest of the world.
We know consolidation is hard everywhere and always. Policymakers need to explain why it is necessary. They need to formulate plans that limit costs to future growth. They need to protect the most vulnerable in society, and they need to complement fiscal reforms with structural policies to lift potential growth. Now, given the speed at which AI moves, key among those structural policies must be steps to ensure AI preparedness. This means different things in different countries, depending on whether they are AI producers, suppliers, or adopters.
But let's remember, simple AI accessible via a smartphone could prove very democratic, and the World Bank told us how in their development report. As the science fiction writer William Gibson says, the future is already here. It's just not evenly distributed. Our task must be to bring this future to everybody, everywhere. Equally, all countries must protect themselves from the substantial risks of AI, stretching from youth joblessness to a hollowing out of the tax base to financial instability.
Perhaps the deepest worry is cyber risk, which involves fears of financial turmoil, infrastructure disruptions, or worse. We see the number of cyber attacks growing exponentially, while the time between discovering and exploiting vulnerabilities is collapsing from months to hours, and soon to minutes. We are in a race to make sure that the good guys remain a step ahead of the bad guys. A borderless global AI system may only be as strong as its weakest link. Ensuring supervisors everywhere can work to enhance cyber resilience becomes a matter of the collective good.
In this and in other areas, the need of the hour is for urgent and practical international cooperation. Which brings me to what we at the IMF do through our capacity development work and our Financial Sector Assessment Program. We help countries strengthen their financial systems, including to protect against the global cyber security challenge. Each year we deliver about 300 technical assistance and training programs in financial supervision and around FSAPs. And this year we concluded our latest five-year FSAP review, which seeks to ensure that we remain at the cutting edge.
Today I'm pleased to report that for exactly the same reason as we heard from the Chair, we have completed a comprehensive review of our surveillance, of our lending conditionality, and the sustainability assessment methodology for low-income countries. The Fund, your Fund, never rests. Fundamentally, our macroeconomic work is about addressing domestic and global imbalances — fiscal, as I have already discussed, but also imbalances between private savings, investment, and trade within and between countries, where we are deepening our assessment methodology and advice.
We are urging our members to take this challenge very seriously. The US needs to save more. China needs to consume more, and Europe needs to invest more. There is plenty of policy homework for all: fiscal consolidation in the US, less state involvement in economic decisions and better social safety nets in China, and deeper integration in the EU. In the near term, however, trends are going in the wrong direction, with the US still over-reliant on domestic demand and China on net exports. But this is a medium-term endeavor. The purpose is to change this trend.
And we know along the way, when we look at our membership, we have strong economies, but we also have economies that stumble. And when they stumble, we're there to catch them. Currently, our credit outstanding plus undrawn commitments stands at $240 billion. What does it mean? It means that we still have unused lending capacity that is three times that big. In other words, if a crisis was to show up, we are there. Our concessional lending at $36 billion is around four times its historic average.
And on that note, I want to turn to you, to our membership, with an important request. We need to have funding for our most vulnerable, poorest members. We have agreed that putting the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, our main concessional lending vehicle, on a path to self-sustainability requires broad approval for distributions from all, and that is not yet quite achieved. So far, 39 countries have provided assurances totaling about 48%. I welcome the efforts of EU countries to find a path to provide assurances that would take us up to 74%, and we still have some way to go to 90%.
For the sake of our most vulnerable members, let's get this done. And in the meantime, I want to give my heartfelt thanks to those who have already committed their support to the PRGT. I also want to thank those who support our capacity development efforts. During the annual meetings, we have secured more than a hundred million dollars in new capacity development commitments. That is about one quarter of our annual spending. We have two more days in the annual meetings. Those of you who may say we also want to join and give support, you know where to find me.
So let me now conclude. I'm standing here in this beautiful country. I cannot think of a better way to finish but by quoting His Majesty, the late King Bhumibol, whose words remind us that benefits and positive outcomes do not arise on their own. Rather, they must be gradually cultivated, accumulated, and strengthened over time. This is the essence of our work: relentless pursuit of betterment in the lives of people. It takes time. It takes perseverance. And it is best done when we all work together. All our 191 members united for a common goal. Khob khun krab, Thailand. Thank you.
Thank you, Ms. Georgieva. I would now like to invite the President of the World Bank Group, Mr. Banga, to deliver his annual address.
Good morning, and Kristalina, thank you for that. As you probably have known, she and I are brother and sister from different mothers. So while she was talking about boats, I was working actively in my speech to take out any mention of boats so that I would not be repeating her jokes. So that was important. But let me, on a serious note, thank the Prime Minister of Thailand for giving us the privilege of opening this plenary, and to the Deputy Prime Minister and your team and the central bank governor. You know, you have proven why Thai culture is so important. You've made 20,000 people think this is their home. That is remarkable. Thank you.
And of course to our Chair, thank you for who you are. Thank you for your leadership. It's actually a real pleasure that you've been able to help us, and it's been a pleasure to work with you and the government of Paraguay. I want to thank all of you for being here — all our members, all our friends, all our colleagues, my pals in the bank, in the IMF. Without you, none of us work, none of us can do anything. Your encouragement is what drives us. And so that's been very important to me.
I've been in this job since 2023. In the months before I joined the World Bank Group, three truths emerged very clearly from all my conversations with shareholders, with clients, with private sector leaders, with philanthropies, and with others. The challenges were great, resources were limited, and the World Bank Group — we needed to sort of turn our boat to face the wind. Three years later, unfortunately, the wind has not eased, as Kristalina spoke to. Conflicts are persisting, fiscal space is tighter, debt burdens have risen, and the cost of essentials from energy to fertilizer remain high, along with the uncertainty of supply.
Meanwhile, a demographic transition is unfolding. Over the next 10 to 15 years, 1.2 billion young people will arrive at a job market that in the developing world is projected to offer only about 400 million jobs. That generation will shape the next century. The choices we make today will help determine how that generation shapes the next century. Those are the twin challenges we've been working to address: making scarce resources go further while helping countries create jobs at scale. The thing is, you have to address them together.
And over the past three years, I have used these annual meetings to lay out the work that we've all been undertaking together, the changes we were making, the ambition behind those changes. So this year I want to focus on our progress and where that is taking all of us. The future of development will depend on bringing public finance, private investment, philanthropy, and technology together around what each country needs. That partnership, the legs of the stool, should mix. They should be where the needs and risks are greatest. Public and concessional finance will remain essential. But as countries grow stronger, private investment and access to markets should play a larger role.
And to be clear, success arrives when we are no longer needed by a country. We have to make ourselves extinct. That is success. 35 countries have moved from IDA to IBRD. 23 are now IDA donors themselves. That is exactly what we want, and our strategy is built around making that progress possible.
It began with changing the World Bank Group itself. We cut project preparation from 19 months to 9. We replaced 153 scorecard measures with 22 focused on impact. We've increased pay-for-results financing from one-third of our financing to half. We brought our public and private sector teams together around country-led and country-driven strategies. And we have re-engineered our balance sheet. We've created more than 100 billion in additional IBRD lending capacity over the next decade.
We're also making it easier for all of us in the MDB community to work together so that 1 plus 1 can be 3. The number of projects on our digital co-financing platform has tripled in two years to about 250 projects now seeking more than 138 billion in financing. Interestingly, a number of projects in the platform have nothing to do with the World Bank. That's the power of partnership. We have sort of cut duplication by creating full mutual alliance frameworks with the Asian Development Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. And we've got more to come, and the idea is to expand that model.
So taken together, what's the point of all these? These changes give us greater capacity as a community. Our jobs strategy, however, gives that capacity a direction. The Jobs Council that we have been drawing upon drew on its experience across countries and sectors to identify policies and programs that create more and better jobs. The strategy that emerged rests on three pillars. The first is physical and human infrastructure. Employers need electricity, water, transport, digital connections. People need health, education, and the appropriate skills for their future. Last year, we committed 40 billion, nearly one-third of our financing, to these foundations.
Second, it needs regulatory and policy certainty. Businesses of every size depend on strong institutions, good governance, clear rules, clear paths from simpler permits to predictable landlords. Last year, 30% of our public sector financing supported policy and institutional reform. Third, scale. Even with strong foundations and clear rules, some risks still hold investment back. The Private Sector Investment Lab helped us focus on those barriers, from currency risk to access to finance, and strengthen the tools to address them: guarantees, equity, local currency financing. That's how we bring more private capital into development.
And the results are now beginning to show. In fiscal year 22, the year before this work plan began, we mobilized roughly $35 billion in private capital. Last year, 112 billion, a three-fold increase. Alongside our own financing, total financing exceeded 230 billion. Those gains are being felt across the spectrum. Mobilization nearly tripled in lower-middle-income countries, quadrupled in upper-middle-income countries, and more than doubled across the continent of Africa. But our challenge is that in low-income countries, fragile, conflict, violence-affected countries where attracting commercial capital remains the hardest, mobilization was flat.
The path to the poorest and most fragile economies runs through their small businesses. That's often where growth happens, where larger companies have yet to take root. And our new MSME strategy — micro, small, and medium enterprise strategy — aims to reach exactly where opportunity is hardest to come by. Meanwhile, participation is broadening too. Last year, the capital we mobilized was from investors in 110 countries. The US, the UK, India led the way. But guess what? Investors came from Romania and Chile and Poland and Brazil. More countries are attracting investment. More are supplying it.
Across it all, nearly 55% of our financing and the private capital we mobilized went to the five sectors we care about: infrastructure and energy, agribusiness, health, tourism, and value-added manufacturing. These sectors are the ones that raise productivity and create locally relevant jobs in those economies in the developing world. And total World Bank Group climate core benefits reach 96 billion: 48 from private capital and 48 from our own balance sheet. 96 billion from one institution in one year.
But financing is just the beginning. The real value is bringing together that capacity, combined with each country, to make sure that we go after what they are trying to achieve. That's why country strategies matter. That's why country compacts matter. That's why country partnership frameworks matter — road maps that build around a country's ambitions, a country's needs, the results that we are trying to achieve together, and the investments and the reforms that are required to get there. That road map is bespoke to each country, but the discipline is consistent across the World Bank Group.
We have to show up with all these emerging countries and the private sector capabilities right from the start. We use IDA and our balance sheet where public and concessional resources are needed. That is mission-critical. We align with philanthropy and operational partners. We mobilize private capital where markets can support it. And technology is the multiplier, the juice that amplifies that work.
Big AI requires computing power, energy, data, specialized skills, and capital that put frontier models beyond many developing countries' immediate reach. But practical or small AI can help a farmer improve yields, a teacher tailor instruction, a health worker make better-informed decisions, an entrepreneur reach new customers, or, as the Deputy Prime Minister showed us, merchants in Bangkok and Thailand get access to credit and better inventory management. That is AI that works for people.
So we are helping countries build the electricity, connectivity, device access, safeguards, but most importantly the tools and applications to put these things to work. AI that works for people. Skills are part of the package, connecting education and training more closely to the jobs and industries that countries are building. But so are small businesses. And I said our MSME strategy is designed to make these firms more visible, more connected, more enabled, and better funded. The idea is to use digital records, digital exhaust to improve access to finance, to link smaller businesses to larger buyers and markets, and simplify the rules that allow them to grow.
Critically important, in fragile and conflict-affected settings where conditions do not yet support larger companies, it is these very small businesses who play an outsized role in creating jobs and laying the foundations for stability and future growth. Embedded across everything we do is what? Building resilient infrastructure and, most importantly, stronger institutions so that progress can last. That is what we refer to at the bank as smart development. And our method is producing results.
Let's start with energy through Mission 300. Our ambition with the African Development Bank and a number of other partners is to bring electricity to 300 million people in Africa by 2030. So far, close to 60 million people have gained access, and the pace has accelerated. We connected 12 million in fiscal year 24, that rose to 18 in 25, and 29 last year. But access is only part of the challenge. Homes, mines, factories, farms, growing cities — what do they need? Reliable, affordable base load power. It's not enough to put one light and one fan on a home. We have to give them productive electricity.
Our approach is balanced by design: a full mix of renewables, hydro, gas where appropriate, nuclear where it makes sense, transmission, grids, storage — the whole thing. That includes supporting nuclear retrofits with the help of the IAEA, the first such work in 50 years for the bank.
On water, our ambition with partners is to improve water security for up to 1 billion people by 2030. The World Bank Group will contribute 400 million out of that billion. 20 country compacts give us a path to reach 150 million people with clean water already. 20 more compacts are on the horizon. In agriculture, private, philanthropic, and operational partners are working to help 300 million smallholder farmers move from subsistence to surplus by 2030. We have committed to 200 million of that. We already built a pipeline to support 82 million farmers in Agricon's first full year.
Now, we're doing the same real-scale work to reach the rest of the 118 million to meet our commitment of 200 million. And through HealthWorks, supported by the Japanese government, our ambition is to reach 1.5 billion people with quality, affordable healthcare by 2030. As of now, we're already at 600 million. And that is part of the progress we need to show.
The same model is showing up in newer areas. In critical minerals, we plan to multiply our business five times in the next five years. This week, we launched our first country compacts with other MDB partners to build local industries and keep more jobs and value at home in the minerals business. We've identified 20 countries who we could partner with on this work. In the economic corridors, we've launched 52 new projects last year, up from 23 years earlier. With partners like the European Commission's Global Gateway, with the US's DFC, and very interestingly, Italy's own Mattei plan, we are bringing infrastructure and investment together.
The infrastructure connects places. The opportunity grows along the way. So take Lobito corridor — a route that principally is for minerals — is increasingly carrying farmers' crops to markets. What does that do? It helps towns and cities grow along the way. That's what corridors do. Different sectors, different countries, different solutions. Remember: bespoke plans, same objective, same discipline. Advance development. Create jobs for young people. Give them hope. Give them dignity.
The next phase is execution at scale. That means meeting private sector clients where they invest and where they make decisions. We're expanding our presence in New York, in Frankfurt, in Milan, in Tokyo. Why? Because you have to originate opportunities where those clients are, solve problems faster, build stronger pipelines. But stronger pipelines are just part of the answer.
Development finance has always faced a very basic constraint: a dollar can only be in one place at one time. Finance a power project, that capital is fixed in that place for decades. It's unavailable for the next water system. It's unavailable for the next rail corridor. It's unavailable for anything else — the clinic or a hospital that that country needs. Meanwhile, pension funds, insurers, and sovereign wealth funds manage enormous pools of long-term capital. They're looking for long-term investments. That is their need to balance their assets and liabilities. We are doing the matchmaking. We are making the introduction.
Six multilateral development banks are creating common ways to assess, document, package, and transfer investments so that a project we help finance today can be held by another investor tomorrow, freeing our capital for the next one. So it's not locked up for 30 years. Repeated across institutions, repeated across markets. Now we will begin to create something...
much larger, much bigger, an emerging market development asset class. That is our ambition. We get this right over the next few years, the size of our balance sheet no longer will define the scale of our ambition. We will no longer be just waiting for that money to come our way. We will bend the curve of development forever.
So let me end where this institution began. Back in 1944, the world was still at war. Delegates from 44 countries gathered in the mountains of New Hampshire. They had every reason to turn inward. Instead, what did they do? They made a wager, a bet that rebuilding one nation could strengthen others and that recovery was a shared responsibility.
They did not build a monument to charity. They built a bank and a fund. They understood something we must never forget. Prosperity is not a prize one nation wins from another. It is a fire that warms every house within its reach.
As countries and their needs change, this institution has changed with them. We've developed new ways to finance development and to support private enterprise. We're building knowledge over decades of work. Our people, some of whom are sitting here, but so many others are in countries. Our people carry that inheritance forward. Their expertise turns lessons from one country into possibilities for another. It's their commitment that turns these possibilities into progress. So before I go further, take a minute to acknowledge them. They are the true strength of our institution, and I want you to please join me in applauding our people.
Today the challenge arrives as arithmetic. A gap of roughly 800 million jobs. Behind that number is a young woman with a degree and no employer. A young man with a trade and no electricity. A generation asking, 'What are these guys doing? Is there a place for me?' A job is not a statistic. A job is dignity. It is the difference between a young person who can build a future and a young person who is merely awaiting one. You leave that potential unrealized and the consequences will cross borders.
But you give it opportunity, give it the fire that I was referring to. And guess what? Those benefits will cross borders as well. That is why development is not charity. It is an investment in our collective future. This institution is rising to that challenge. Not to recreate the development model of the last generation, but to build one equal to the expectations of the next one. A model that evolves as countries do. Public money where markets cannot yet reach, but private capital where it can create jobs at scale. Philanthropy to take early risks and unlock new ideas, and technology to be the force multiplier to make every dollar go further. And a World Bank Group that brings it together with its talented people, but around what each country needs, built at the country level. That's the future of development we're working toward. The jobs gap is a projection. It does not have to be our future. We have begun to show what this model can deliver. Now what we have to do is give it the scale, the place the next generation demand. That future is ours to build. And thank you for being on the journey with me.
Thank you, Mr. Banga. Before adjourning this session, I propose that we resolve to record our appreciation to the host of the 2026 Bangkok meetings, and to convey that the Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group express their sincere appreciation to the government and to the people of Thailand for the gracious and warm hospitality during these annual meetings. That they express particular appreciation to the governors and alternate governors for Thailand and to the associates for the many contributions they made toward ensuring the success of the 2026 annual meetings.
Without objection, we will record our declaration of appreciation. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank the governors of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group for the honor to serve as chair of this joint session, and I thank you for your support and cooperation.
Allow me to express my deep appreciation to Ms. Georgieva and Mr. Banga for their leadership of our two institutions. I also recognize the commitment of the staff of the Fund and the World Bank Group for carrying out the vital work of these institutions.
I would like to thank Mr. Oda and Mr. Kumar Kapoor, as well as the staff of the secretariats of both institutions for the successful organization of these meetings. I would also like to thank the chairs and vice chairs, the governors of Cabo Verde and Maldives. And looking forward, I wish to congratulate the governor for Pakistan who has been selected to chair for the coming year.
I wish all the governors and delegates a fruitful and productive meeting for the period and a safe journey home after the completion of our work. I look forward to seeing you next year in Washington, D.C. I hereby adjourn this meeting of the 2026 annual meetings of the Boards of Governors of the IMF, IBRD, IDA, IFC and MIGA.
Mommy.
Darling for me.
Amen.
Okay.
A very good morning to everybody in the audience and those who may be watching in the overflow room. There is a great deal of interest in this conversation, uh, because of who it is with. Uh, I am delighted to introduce Chairman Kevin Warsh. Uh, for those of you who may not be fully familiar with his incredible professional career, let me say a couple of words.
Uh, Chairman Warsh, uh, was, um, a keen scholar of policymaking throughout his entire life. Um, he spent, uh, his career at this intersection of, uh, monetary policy, finance and economic policymaking.
Uh, and he has been able to look at issues that concern not only the financial system but the lives of people from multiple perspectives, as an academic, uh, in the financial markets and in the public sector. Uh, so where did he come from? Just before he took over the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve, he was Shepherd family distinguished visiting fellow in economics at the Hoover Institution, a lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, and partner in Dukak family office.
He came to those from, uh, working at Morgan Stanley. He advised President, uh, George W. Bush on capital markets and banking issues. But my favorite part of Kevin's career, uh, is when he first was at the Federal Reserve. At what time? In the most challenging and taxing time. Uh, he was there during the global financial crisis and he was there as the youngest ever governor at the age of 35. And now he's now 36.
He has very deep, impressively deep understanding of, uh, financial markets. Uh, instrumental in navigating one of the most complicated periods in, uh, recent history, and, uh, sat at the table with those who made at that time critical decisions, the most consequential decisions for many in their lifetimes.
Uh, so he saw crisis from the inside. Uh, I do not wish you ever to repeat this experience. Uh, and as we all know, in May this year he became chairman of the Federal Reserve. Great choice.
Uh, I can say, uh, with admiration that, um, you bring, of course, a lot of experience, but one quality that you bring that I rarely see is you have a profoundly thoughtful response to questions, and you never shy away from listening to opinions that may be different from yours.
Uh, now, um, I can say, uh, when, uh, when, um, Kevin agreed to be here, I thought, okay, so let me see how we can get the conversation that is, um, it is about the broad transformational trends and dig deep into your, your thinking.
Um, I want to start from where the world is today. We are here at the annual meetings. We talk about a resilient world economy, but also about the fragility of this resilience, the divergence across countries. Uh, we discuss what are the sources of resilience? Could they continue? Would they last? What it would take for them to last? Uh, and I thought that it would be a great start for today to hear from you. How do you see the world economy? How do you see that resilience on which we have been relying — will it last? Uh, what is your advice to policymakers? How do they orient themselves in a time of higher uncertainty?
So, first of all, thank you very much, Cristina. Full disclosure: Cristina and I are old friends. So those questions sounded harder, but there's some softballs coming, I presume. So, um, the only part of that biography that Cristina read that I will differ with is she said her favorite part of my resume is the global financial crisis. That is not my favorite part.
Um, and when I come back to, uh, meetings of the IMF, come back to meetings of the G20, I'm obviously incredibly honored to be in this post. This is a hugely consequential time. But when I walk into the IMF, when I come to these meetings, I will say I still have a little bit of scar tissue from the deepest, darkest days of the global financial crisis. I might be over-scarred from that period, but better over-scarred than under-scarred, I presume. So, we can go in any direction you want. I think you were asking about the state of the global economy.
Um, so what I've tried to do, which might be a little bit of a change for policymakers, is try to look outside the window. Uh, in our business, in economics, in policym circles, uh, we can focus on the past, on the history, and look at data which we think of sometimes as contemporaneous data, but it's really lag data. It's about what happened. We can also focus a lot of our time and attention on the future. We certainly want to know what 2027 and '28 are about. But none of us are perfect forecasters.
So what I try to do in thinking about what's going on is I try to look out the window as clearly as I can. At the Federal Reserve we do that about eight times a year when we sit down for these FOMC meetings. We did that, I don't know, a month or so ago at the September meeting and we came to a judgment. What are we seeing in the global economy as it affects the US? I'm going to say broadly, over the month or so that's transpired since then, the world has broadly conformed to our expectations.
Um, we'll be meeting a couple more times this year and that will be the crystallizing moment at which we're going to look out the window. What do we see? What's happening to output? What's happening to employment? What's happening to inflation? And in those intermediate periods, especially occasions like this when Cristina and I get to sit down without the cameras and the microphones, and I get to sit down with my G20 colleagues, I'm doing at least as much listening as I am talking. Obviously, the Federal Reserve and our policies spill over to the rest of the world, but their policies spill back to us, too.
So, I had made judgments about a month ago, and we'll make some judgments at the October meeting and the December meeting. But broadly, let me just step back and give you now slightly dated views which probably still hold. Uh, one is, um, 20 years ago at meetings like this we talked about secular stagnation.
Boy, that seems — I don't know if it was as inaccurate then as it seems now — but right now we have structural growth. We have an investment surge. It's not hitting every country at the same rate. But in the United States we're having a massive investment surge. And it makes me think, Cristina, the idea of secular stagnation suggested that that was somehow inevitable. There was nothing policymakers like you and me could do about it.
If we learned anything since my last time sitting at a post like this and now, there's a lot we can do about it. Policy matters. The investment surge isn't by accident. It's because of the consequence of good policy, both macroeconomic policy, but also, as you've heard about in the last week or two from new Nobel Prize winners, the micro foundations. And decent macro policy and strong micro foundations can lead to an investment surge. It's probably the most important thing that's happening in the global economy on the upside.
But to be balanced, as we central bankers have to be, you know, I came out of meetings here yesterday and today, and it's hard to be in a discussion with central bankers and not compare notes and hear the same thing about the surge in prices. Obviously it affects each of us differently. Um, at the Federal Reserve, we made very clear that we would deliver price stability and we removed a dose of accommodation about a month ago. I don't prejudge meetings. I don't believe in, uh, saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year, but that was the situation.
Disappointed half of the audience or more.
They can all turn it off. Um, it's a new chapter at the Fed and we're not in that business anymore, but we can go in any direction you'd like.
Well, uh, this is a very good direction. So, we talk about the — you rightly say you look out of the window. What we see is, uh, an economy that in some places is booming. It is being dragged upward mostly by enthusiasm about AI. But then you go into other places, uh, and, uh, other factors, especially the impact of war — it's dragging economies down.
One thing that is happening everywhere, whether your economy is going up or it's going down, is the stubborn inflation — price pressures that are coming from everywhere. And, uh, one of the sources, of course, is the energy shock in the Middle East and the energy shock from war. But one of the sources is this investment enthusiasm about AI. Uh, so my question is: from a monetary policy perspective, how should we think about the impact of AI in the short term, in the long term? Is there anything that we are paying too little attention to, that we should be paying more attention to today?
Yeah. So it's a great question. A couple of things. First, Cristina, you pronounce it AI. In the US we now pronounce it 'si', just so you know. Um, so it's probably...
Can I say potato? Potato.
That's right. It was just a, um, I don't know how that's going to translate for the countries around the world with teams of folks. Um, I'd say the advent of this new technology is probably the most consequential change to the US and the global economy in my lifetime to this point.
Um, so I take it seriously, but as a central banker also soberly, responsibly. Um, I'd say it's going to do several things. First, it's obviously hitting the demand side of the economy before it's going to hit the supply side of the economy. See, if you're a central banker and you're in the business of trying to ensure stable prices and full employment, you've got to recognize this as a shock. But it's a positive supply shock in the medium term. I do fundamentally believe that. But on the path to that positive supply shock, we're seeing increases in aggregate demand. That just is what it is.
But I think of this shock differently. Those other shocks you talked about, shocks of war and military conflict and the rest — this one there really is, uh, I think, a huge benefit to the global economy, to the US economy, over the horizon.
So that's one comment. Second, it's a big deal for central banks because we're in the business of trying to, in some ways, distill noisy data all over the world. We get some of that from official statistics — in the US from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis. We torture data with old-fashioned models to try to find out what's underlying inflation trends. Not so long from now, it won't be torture.
We will have access at the fingertips of central banks to all the information in the world, and we'll be able to use new analytical tools to distill that data. So, when we get new information, we're going to have a lot more confidence in what it tells us as we're looking outside the window and saying, is that real, or is that lagged and noisy data subject to mismeasurement? So I think it's going to fundamentally change the conduct of monetary policy.
Uh, as a second point. Third, it's going to change the real economy. Uh, we don't know in the next 12 or 18 months its effect on employment. But if you believe, like I believe, which is that it will make, uh, economies and countries that put it to good use more productive, that it's going to make it so that we will have more wealth, then that has to be a very good thing. But the path from where we are to there is likely to be a very bumpy one. Bumpy in our understanding of the technology. Bumpy because we really don't know what the market structure is going to be of these new technologies. Who's going to get to make the money? What are the consequences for those that bet that they were going to make money, but the market structure doesn't allow it?
So, I want you to hear from me: optimism, but optimism leavened by the seriousness of purpose to the day jobs that you and I have. And, uh, I think it's an exciting development and it's an innovation that I think a decade from now they'll look back on and they'll say this was hugely consequential. So our job as policymakers is to take it with that same focus.
I'll just say one more thing on big, hard questions that don't matter much to the current policy conjuncture. Um, my view is we at the central bank need to invest in the next policy conjuncture.
So among the external task forces that I initiated about four or five months ago is one on productivity and jobs. Uh, we're going to have our first field hearing of a task force on November 16th in the Bay Area where we're going to wrestle with these issues. I'm pretty sure I've got the right questions. Not sure I have the right answers. And so we've got a group of outside experts both on the task force and people in the broader community to help us engage on that.
And, uh, hopefully there'll be fruits of that not just for us in the US, but these efforts that we're doing and investigating at the Fed — these are global public goods — and the IMF might, other G20 central banks might learn, decide to adopt some of these things themselves. That's the hope and expectation. The better they do, the better we do.
Very much look forward to that. Uh, so to avoid the linguistic controversy, let's call it the NHI, the non-human intellect.
So, if, uh, we look at, um, that development that is incredibly rapid, we do have to think about the impact on inflation, short and long term. We do have to think about impact on financial stability, and as you said, there is the excitement of what it may mean for productivity. On this triangle of inflation — possibly disinflation in the future — the impact on financial stability risk, and the upside on productivity: which one your task force is to concentrate most on? What is in your view the one issue that dominates monetary policymakers?
Yeah. So first, here's my working proposition about task forces, because I've been on task forces like you have before we were in these jobs. You want to ask them the questions — and to be full disclosure, I check in with each of my five task forces periodically. But you also want to let them be themselves.
The idea of the task force on productivity and jobs, on data collection, on inflation, is to let them produce new intellectual capital and to drop that on the Federal Open Market Committee, to share their views with the broader audience and see whether that catalyzes new thinking. Otherwise, you and I and our peers in central banking, we could just push the same ideas around. The idea is to really let them do it.
Um, there are tail risks associated with all shocks. I'm not going to try to bite off one tail and say it's all to the good. Um, what I'd say is the US is investing through private sector capital in a range of new technologies, in a range of new companies, with bets on different parts of the market structure. In my business, we don't have to figure out who's right or wrong. That's what financial markets are for doing.
But we do want to step back and ask ourselves the question: if various scenarios were to happen, what are the implications for our remit? As you know, we talk about stable prices and full employment, but inching into that again — you know, with the history of my visits to the IMF 20 years ago — we also want to think about financial stability risks. And the way I think about it might be a little bit different.
I don't think the central bank or the international policymaking set that we're in, we should be in the business of stopping variance away from some modal outcome. We've got to want to ask ourselves, though, are there negative tail-side risks that we can do something about? And we have to be pretty humble about that question.
I've given the task force, uh, every ability to sort of ask themselves what are the upsides, what are the downsides, and what are the implications for us. Uh, the same way I'm not going to prejudge, uh, FOMC meetings, I'm going to try not to prejudge where they come out.
Task forces. Yes. Very good. Uh, by the way, uh, Kevin says we both have been on task forces. He was leading one that resulted in the Queen of England reporting the results to the parliament. So it's a very special chairmanship you offer.
Now, uh, I counted, uh, Kevin, today is your 148th day on the job, and actually there is a little risk in my calculation because it depends whether you calculate in Washington or here in Bangkok, but we are about there. So what is it that you have reached a conclusion now that you didn't have on the first day? How do you see moving into the job further?
Yeah. So it's a fair question. Um, I'm probably not best at introspection, so full disclosure on that. Um, I'll begin by saying I'm sure glad I was there before. If I hadn't been at the Federal Reserve for five and a half years, especially during a period of some consequence, I think I'd probably be a bit more hesitant to introduce new ideas, to practice new ideas inside the Federal Reserve of 23,000 people, to sort of probe the question of can we create a new chapter at the Federal Reserve, making the best of the Fed's traditions but recognizing this is a brand new world.
So first I would say, uh, five and a half years of time served, I think, has served me well. Um, you know, it's said that sometimes when someone joins an organization they want to bring the fresh perspective of an outsider. I will balance that by saying you also have to have some of the knowledge of an insider. I'm trying to think of myself as being on the edge of the inside.
Um, so what are my lessons from 148 days? First, um, there's an incredible depth of talent at the Federal Reserve. I must say a little piece of me worried. I've been gone for 15 years. I wondered whether all the talent might have left at some point in those 15 years. There's an amazing amount of talent that's still there. And the lucky thing for me is when I was young, they were young, too.
