Took the words right out of my mouth, dude.
You know, I ate, I ate, uh, I ate 12 tacos.
They weren't like tacos with like no meat in them. There was a ton of meat in these tacos.
Do you crave tacos when you watch Miami Hurricane football? Is that like, is that your pairing?
Um, no. We having audio issues here. Hold on.
Your mic's a little funk.
I thought they were gonna...
It's not so much a football thing.
It's not so much a football thing. I just... I had leftover steak the other day. Oh, yeah. Go Canes. I had leftover steak the other day and my wife, uh, said that I wasn't allowed to make the tacos because the whole household's like onions.
Okay. Uh, so I didn't have any tacos, so that was a bummer. So I had it like in my head.
So I had myself Saturday night.
Here, I'll be right, I'll be right back. I'll come right back in.
I'm so lonely.
Who's ready to talk about some Pepsi today?
Hey, Pepsi.
McDonald's bringing back the value menu. Woo. Back. Are we good?
Yeah. That's... There you go. There you go.
I don't even know what it cost. I hit the ground running. Yeah. Hit the ground running. Yeah. I can't take no loss. I don't even know what it cost. Yeah. I hit the ground running. Yeah. Hit the ground running. Yeah.
All right, ladies and gentlemen, we are back on the morning show. We got Spencer Israel out in, uh, out on the beach this week, on the beach with the family. Uh, some well-deserved time off for one Mr. Spencer. Uh, I am your host today, JC Perez. I am joined by my co-host and legend, Mr. Steve Strazza. We got Todd Sohn in the house today. Fan favorite, new all-time highs across the board. We got monthly charts to talk about. Uh, we got markets moving this morning. Gold, silver hitting new highs. Uh, a lot going on. Uh, yield curves making moves. Uh, new Trump coins. I mean, all kinds of stuff happening. So, uh, why don't we hit it? Let's go, Izzy. Let's go. Bring on the boys.
All right, Mr. Strazza, did you enjoy your day off or were you looking at charts? Uh, just waiting for the market to open.
Uh, I was looking at charts. Um, wrote a nice note yesterday. Hey, we were looking at the cryptos, looking at China this weekend, but I had a lovely long weekend. My parents are in town. Um, hung out by the pool, explored the area a little bit. Just a...
Uh, that I think they like it. They seem very comfortable. I don't think they want to leave. They're, uh, watching the show outside right now by the pool.
Oh, must be nice. Must be nice.
We didn't, we didn't play any golf. Uh, my dad's back is bothering him, but outside.
Your dad a good golfer? No, not at all.
Is he, uh, is he better than you? Because it's a low bar.
You're better than your father?
He was better at basketball, though.
You know, I was actually a great athlete when I was younger.
Your dad says you never passed the ball.
Because you wouldn't want, you wouldn't have wanted me to pass the ball. My coach didn't want me to pass the ball. There's no reason for me to pass the ball.
I still don't really pass the ball.
Um, I heard that you, uh, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take. Is that right?
That's right. That's right. I'm getting... Speaking of that, I am going to get a Michael Jordan picture, a Tiger Woods picture. I'm going to go full sports in my office.
All the GOATs. All the GOATs.
Yeah. Like great moments. You know what I mean? Like I'm going to get like the Tiger fist pump. I'm going to get the Jordan like jumping in the air thing. I'm going to get John Starks dunking on Jordan.
Tiger fist pump. That was at the Masters. US Open. I thought... I don't even know.
You would know better than me.
The famous, you know, the fist pump picture. I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm going to just deck it out with some...
What about that one that was like the best Nike commercial ever by accident where like the ball like fell into... Right. You know what I mean?
It's just hanging right on the hole and then it just like falls in and then it says it has a Nike swoosh. You know those commercials I'm talking about?
Yeah. And then they doctor up those videos on the internet. There's, there's like a bunch of videos that make Tiger look like a badass where he's like walking down the putt and like never even looked at it because he knew it was going in. But those are actually fake... fake news.
You know what I'm talking about where like he putts and like doesn't even worry. He just like starts like he knew it was in. They, they doctor those videos up a little bit. I want to talk about Pepsi. Um, today.
Pepsi Cola. All right. Let's get to the state of the markets. Let's talk about Pepsi. Wow. Didn't see that one coming. Uh, Steve Strazza in the middle of a, of a bull market. Coming in hot with the consumer staples. Coming in hot.
Shall we? Should we do the thing?
All right. We got the Dow futures this morning down three-quarters of a percent. Markets getting slaughtered now that summer's over. They're coming in here. They're selling them. They're selling them today. 350 points to the downside. 42,2... excuse me, 45,250 for the Dow. S&P 500 futures down a full percent this morning. That's 6,400 down 66 handles. NASDAQ 100 leading the way to the downside, down 1.3%. That's 23,140. Down 300 handles for the NASDAQ 100 futures. There's some selling going on today as interest rates are going up. 30-year bond futures down 90 basis points, almost a full percent down to 113 and change for 30-year bond futures. That's actually a big move, uh, with interest rates going up. You also have crude oil up this morning, up almost 2%, 65 and change for crude. You got copper down three-quarters of a percent at 455. You got gold up again after the highest monthly close ever. Uh, up three-quarters of a percent, 3540 for gold. Silver up a full percent as well. 41. Yes, you heard that right. 41 and change for silver. Uh, new 14-year highs with the VIX making moves. 18 and a half, uh, right now. This thing was, was, was trying to break 14 to the downside. Let's go over in, uh, funny money land and see what we got going on. Uh, we got Bitcoin, uh, this morning flat, 109,200. You got Ethereum 4,320 flat this morning as well. You got Solana up 1.3%, uh, right at 200 even. Uh, the Solana ETH ratio continues to act pretty well. Uh, and that brings the total crypto market cap. Spencer Israel, if you're out there listening at the beach, uh, total crypto market cap 3.72 trillion. 3.72 trillion. Mr. Strazza, what stands out the most this morning?
No, I mean, just some nice news flow, uh, for Monday morning. It was a sleepy weekend. Sometimes on these holiday weekends, JC, you get some nice like crypto market volatility and really not much. We just got, you know, big red on the futures this morning. That was...
What about the crypto? We got 5 billion in market cap from the new, uh, that new Trump, uh, situation. Uh, $5 billion for the Trump family, uh, yesterday. Uh, you don't think that's volatility? You don't think that... you're not entertained?
No. No. That there was no...
$5 billion. It's a drop in the bucket. No big deal.
No, there's no action there. But I think the fact that Bitcoin is simply holding, right? So this has been a really resilient correction even though it's taking some time. Um, there hasn't been much downside. Like, I like the resilience stands out to me and I think this is really good for these Bitcoin miners, right? They need prices at a certain point and then they need them to stay there. And I think this rally in the Bitcoin miners over the past few weeks, even as Bitcoin is coming down, JC, is due to the fact that Bitcoin isn't coming down as much as it usually does during corrective waves. Like, it's really holding well. And for these businesses, I think that, you know, bodes really well for them. So...
Uh, what about, uh, throw up slide two there, Ethereum second highest monthly close ever.
How do we feel about that?
Yeah, MicroStrategy is looking okay this morning, too. Uh, I feel good about that. Really, I do.
You, you feel good about it?
What is it about it that makes you feel so good?
Listen, I, I'm watching these Bitcoin miners. I'm so interested, uh, at these...
What do you like, the IN?
I own like 10 of them. You own many of them.
You think that, you think that's enough? 10 of them in your portfolio. Is that enough exposure to crypto miners or no?
I'm a big basket builder. I love building baskets. I really enjoy building my own baskets. Uh, I have lots of fun with this. It's one of my favorite things to do. So...
Yeah, dude, you're sounding, you're starting to sound like Donald Trump. I build my own baskets. The greatest baskets.
I build my own baskets. The greatest baskets. My basket. The best basket.
I walk into a room and I say I build the biggest baskets. Right. Is that... throw up my charts. Pepsi, Pepsi, Pepsi. This is really interesting.
I can't believe you're just like starting right off the bat with a consumer staple. It's a bull market.
You just witnessed one of the greatest stock market rallies of all time. Summer's over. The boys are back in town and you're starting with Pepsi.
Yeah. And where's my McDonald's chart? Is that in here somewhere? There it is. Oh, so good. Um...
Tell me why we should care about, uh, Pepsi when the stock market is making all-time highs. You're out here talking about Pepsi, not Tesla. Pepsi.
Got it. So, uh, Pepsi and Coca-Cola, the two big boys, uh, the, the two big sugar companies, big competitors. One sells Coca-Cola, the other one sells Pepsi. You get it? They sell a lot of other things as well. Uh, these companies have always been very similar. Years back, Coca-Cola kind of went in a different direction and they started streamlining their bottling operations and actually using like local bottlers. Um, they called it, they refranchised their bottling network and what that did was, if you go to the next chart here, right, so Pepsi makes twice the amount of sales as Coke in any given year. Coke's around like 45, Pepsi's at like 90, right? So you see that...
Yeah. Yep.
And then if you go to the next chart, this is where things get really interesting. This is their margins. Uh, so Coke's got about like seven percentage points, uh, in gross margin or operating margin over Pepsi, especially because of, you know, the way that they have done their bottling differently. So when you go down to the net income line, Coke on half the amount of sales than Pepsi is actually making more money, right, from a net income perspective. And you can see the trend. If you go to slide 22, Rick, that shows the trend really nicely. Uh, how Coke has actually become the better earner, right, from a profitability standpoint. Coke is now the better stock. And that's played out with this, you know, I guess their bottling strategy. So Paul Singer from Elliott Management sees this, takes one of the largest stakes in Elliott Management history, uh, in Pepsi right now. And this is simple. This is what these activists do. He's looking at what Coke did. He's saying they have seven percentage points in margin over Pepsi. These are the same businesses. Why isn't Pepsi doing the same thing? And sometimes it just takes a guy, a hedge fund guy with a lot of money to step in there, take a massive stake like this. They have a $4 billion stake in Pepsi and I think that's exactly what he's going to push this company to do. I think that's going to unlock a ton of upside for Pepsi and their margins are going to improve and get closer, more in line with Coke's margins and I think there's a lot of value here. So, you know, shout out to activists. This is what we want them to do. This is why we have, you know, such efficient capital markets here in the United States, um, because of stuff like this. So, I love to see this. I think it's a great move by Elliott. I think Pepsi is completely undervalued, doing the wrong things. So, you get a big, big dividend, uh, in this stock right now. I'm pretty super long in my long-term account and I like it a lot. What do you think, JC?
You know, here's what I see. I mean, I'm not Mr. like Pepsi guy, you know? Uh, I'm not Mr. uh, look at all the consumer staples in the middle of a bull market guy, but if you throw up slide two, I got to tell you, uh, Strazza might not be so crazy here. Uh, I like the little, uh, scoop and score. Little scoop and score on the Pepsi monthly. Uh, what do you think? Do we have Rick on the ones and twos today, by the way?
Where's the FS? Where's the FS?
FS is in Tuscany, living his best.
Oh, excuse me. Oh, excuse me. FS is in Tuscany.
Deserves it. Man hasn't taken a vacation in about three years. So...
Must be nice hanging out in Tuscany. I see FS. All right.
Go get lost in Italy, FS. He went and found the Fibonacci statue. I think he used your little like treasure hunt map, uh, and he found...
Nobody, nobody on this planet has built a better map to find that Fibonacci statue than yours truly right here.
Did, did you help advise him or he found it on his own?
FS is a clever, clever fellow. I don't know if you, uh, I don't know if you know this. He didn't ask me anything. He knew exactly where it was. He sent me... You know...
I like those kind of guys that they don't bring me problems, they bring me solutions, right? Like it's not like FS is like, 'Oh, JC, where do I find the Fibonacci statue?' It's like, 'No, no, no. JC, look at me with the Fibonacci statue.' See the difference?
You guys taking notes out there? You guys taking notes. That's how it's done, right? You get [__] done. You get [__] done and you show them after the fact. Look what I did.
So, what, what's the problem here? Hold on. Um, respectfully disagree. These things are all smoke and mirrors.
What's smoke and mirrors? The fact that Pepsi's got seven percentage points to make up in, in margin to get in line with Coke. What's smoke and mirrors about that? This is just basic math.
This, I think this is a pretty easy one to be completely honest. Depressed blue chip, high-quality stocks in the United States and getting them at a discount. I think eight times out of ten these big blue chip stories actually do turn around and head back to new all-time highs. And we've had so many great examples of this just over the past couple of years. 3M, uh, Pfizer and Merck are in interesting territory along with UNH right now. Disney, uh, Nike, you know, down in the dumps. Like there's a number of really, really high-quality companies, mega caps, uh, that are in large drawdowns, and I like to fish in those ponds. And that, you know, Pepsi is one of them right now.
There's the FS. Look at that.
Yeah.
Look at the fonts. Look at the fonts. Cutting off Leo's head there. I see you. I see you. Sending me Fibonacci's nose is like off, like his fingers are all cut off, like Fibonacci...
He looks like, um, the guy from, uh, Happy Gilmore with the hand...
Looks like the guy from Happy Gilmore. Yeah, a little bit like that. Like a little bit like that. Um...
Throw up, uh, can you drop the link in the chat? Anybody who is in Pisa and is, is interested in finding the Fibonacci statue, it's not easy. Uh, I tell the story there. This is an old blog post from 2018, I can't believe it, uh, on how to find the statue exactly. Uh, throw up, uh, throw up slide three there. You could see your boy right there. Your hostess with the mostess right there on the left with a one. Leonardo Fibonacci. It's right next to the Leaning Tower of Pisa. There's my wife. Uh, you weren't married yet, right? No, we weren't married yet. She was my girlfriend at the time.
I believe she may have been my fiancée, in fact.
Uh, that was a good picture. I took that one. You like that one?
Yeah. Shout out Morgan. Uh, Morgan having a rough time. You know, uh, daughter started kindergarten last week. You know, it's not easy for the moms, right?
Did, did she tell you I slid into her DMs the other day?
Yep.
Why are you sliding into my wife's DMs, bro?
Her new username is one of the single best usernames I've seen in a long time. I was laughing.
I don't know what her username is. And what app?
Oh, it's so good. I had to tell her how good it was. So good. So good.
Oh, all right. Um, by the way, the Leaning Tower of Pisa is, uh, is leaning a lot more than you'd think.
So, it's right behind. So, when you're, when you're checking out the Leaning Tower, you got all these tourists looking at the tower. They don't even know that Big Leo is out in the back.
Super cool though, huh? How does it not fall over? They must, they must like...
It's going to fall over one day. No.
No, they fixed... No, they fixed it. Uh, it said stop, stop leaning now.
Hey, listen. Listen. Wrap up this conversation. Last one. Throw up 19. Uh, this is just fun. This is just a fun chart, right? Look at, look at what's happened with the soft drink sales and US cola, right? Because sugar, it's tough. Sugar's falling on hard times.
Do we have, do we have liter cola?
No, this, this is just volume. This is the volume trend between Coca-Cola sales versus Pepsi sales. The, the Coke sales, the cola sales. And one of them is doing just fine. Hasn't really lost any, any, uh, anything in terms of like its sales volume. Pepsi is down 15 percentage points. So, big difference there. Uh, Coke, Coke is definitely winning the cola war. Uh, I think we have a clear winner at this point.
The cola war. I like that.
I like cola wars better than trade wars. That's for sure.
Yeah. And now just to wrap up the conversation on boring stocks, McDangles is officially bringing back some sort of value menu because for years now, really since the inflation, uh, pop started back in 2020, you go to McDonald's now, you're spending almost $20. Got like a quarter pounder.
Hold on. The dollar menu doesn't exist anymore.
The dollar menu doesn't exist anymore.
Look at this chart. So they, they originally phased it out like 2013, 2014. It took a while to phase it out in some places before others. And that popped this stock off through like this huge $100 level. See, it was consolidating. They trashed the value menu and the dollar menu said no more. Look at what's happened to the stock since. Now, over the past couple years, McDonald's is the head honcho, right? They're the leader of the pack. So, they cut their value menu first and then the rest of the fast foods cut their value menu. Now, these fast food companies have been under immense pressure due to the way that their prices have surged in the past couple years due to inflation. So McDonald's now, you know, always the first mover with this kind of stuff. I wouldn't be surprised if Wendy's brings something back, Burger King brings something back, right? So fast food lovers, you know, we're going to be enjoying a fast food renaissance here. Um, getting our old value menu back. I'm excited. So I'm excited for this.
That was just the second highest monthly close ever for McDow's.
What a stock, man. My daughter hates it when I call it McDow's because she's never, she's never watched Coming to America obviously because she's five.
Eddie Murphy. Um, great American brand. Pepsi.
One of those. Pepsi also.
Which is the greater American brand, Pepsi or Coke?
Coke is the better American brand.
Coke is everywhere. Think about it. Like Coke, Coke is everywhere. And even McDonald's might even be like a more global brand because like some of these other countries, they have their own like sodas that they love, right? Coke's not like the number one seller. You go anywhere in the world, like there's golden arches, man.
Dude, when I went to the, the Sumo Wrestling Championships in Tokyo, you got there and like the younger fighters that had already wrestled in the morning, they were at the McDonald's across the street from the arena. Like you could see them in like their, you know, the shoes, the clogs, you know, like those giant flip-flops. Can you imagine what a sumo wrestler's order is at McDonald's, right? Yeah. These are like young kids. They look like offensive linemen kind of like they're still not like humongous. Like they're still leaner. They're not lean, but like they're leaner than their older ones, you know? They're, that's why they're at McDonald's probably, right? They're at McDonald's.
There it is. There it is. Is that a sumo wrestler?
Um, all right. Can we, can we talk about this World Liberty Financial? I feel like nobody's making a big deal about this at all.
5 billion. Like, nobody cares. This was [__] yesterday.
Nobody seems to care. Like, this is a big deal. I think it's a big deal.
So, just explain yourself. This is, uh, what now? And this is just to be clear, this is an intraday chart, people.
Well, it's only been trading for 24 hours.
So, this is a new Trump token.
Well, the Trump coin itself, the, the Trump coin was like a legit memecoin. Like that's as memecoin as memecoins get. This is not... there's a utility to it. This is not a meme coin. Uh, obviously you see the market cap, but like there's... I'm not going to pretend to be an expert. Uh, but there's something going on. It's connected to the stablecoin. It's on all, all the blockchains. Uh, started trading on Coinbase already. Like this is not like... this is not a meme coin. It's meme-ish because Trump is a meme, right? Um, the president of the United States, Trump or otherwise, is a meme. The Republican Party is a meme. The Trump family is a meme. Each and every one of those dudes are their own memes, right? So, it's meme-ish, but this is not a meme coin, right?
I am long. Uh, but that's not the point. What I'm doing, it doesn't matter. I'm more interested in like sort of what this means for crypto. Um, you know, it's... this is, this is not nothing. You know, it's not nothing. It's one of the largest cryptocurrencies in the world already. Uh, and if you... So for me, what's the takeaway here? The takeaway here is there's going to be more of this.
It's not just... it's not like it has nothing to do with Trump or the Trump family or anything like that.
Yeah. I don't understand why anybody... Can you say more of this? I mean...
I just don't understand why every time somebody's making money then it has to be like a grift. Like those people are weird. Like they're jealous.
President of the United States, JC, so it's a little unfair.
First of all, nobody said life was fair. I don't know what kind of world you live in there with some of this stuff.
You had, you growing up in Connecticut, white boy in Connecticut with, with a mother and father that love you.
You had huge advantages over other people around the world and it's not fair to them. So what are you going to do? Are you going to stop living your life?
I'm not the president of the United States launching, uh, cryptocurrencies. It's just slightly different.
If you were the president of the United States, you think you'd be launching cryptocurrencies?
Definitely not, to be honest.
I don't know. I don't know. I'd be calling you, be like, 'Yo, Strazza, you're president of the United States, bro. Let's drop a token.'
Look, okay, but here's the point. Here's my point. I don't care that this makes people sad or this makes people angry. The market doesn't care, so I don't care.
I'm just saying I understand their complaints to a degree.
Oh, maybe. I just don't care about other people's sensitivity issues or their virtue signaling or, you know, all the [__] that they do. I'm only interested in making money. That's what you see. That's the goal as an investor is to make money. It's not to judge others in their behavior. That's not my problem, right? So, I'm interested in how we're going to make money from it. And for me, I think there's opportunity in the token. I think it's important as investors to understand this ain't the last time you're going to see it. You're going to see more of these. It's going to have nothing to do with Trump. It's going to be some other dude and people are going to get butt-hurt about that dude also. Like it's just going to keep happening, right? So, I think that's the big takeaway. But that's $5 billion.
No, it's good. It's good. Look, it's altcoin season. I think you are looking in the right places. This is aggressive. Oh, it's a little aggressive. Um, Nestlé... we got, we got, uh, we got some guests in the house. Hold on quick. Nestlé CEO. You, you heard about this one?
He's gone. People seem to not... Is Nestlé British or Swiss?
It's UK-based. When you become CEO, you really have to give up girls. Um, there's just, there's no room for it. You'll get fired. You know, the best CEOs...
You got to give up girls. No more girls. You can't talk, can't talk to the girls. Can't look at the girls. These CEOs every other week they're getting fired.
Oh, because they fired the Nestlé CEO for being creepy.
He had a relationship. Just a relationship with a girl who was a direct report apparently. So, he's gone now. You can't do that.
No, you can't [__] where you eat.
Are like Tim Cook. They just turn gay and then they never have any problems.
All right. You know, I mean, listen, a lot of years on Wall Street, I saw the, I saw the guys with the sales assistants and the whole thing. Like, that's, that's no good, man.
That's no good. You got the, you got the Coldplay concerts. I mean, you're not, you know, come on.
I mean, imagine losing half your net worth at a Coldplay concert. I mean, come on.
You should be embarrassed.
Yeah. Seriously. Like, maybe like Aerosmith or something. Maybe Coldplay. Hey, let's go through a couple of charts and then we'll bring on Kenny. Go through, uh, go through slide seven. But I want to remind everybody, we got new monthly candles. Um, I'm going to show you a few of the ones that stood out to me here. Uh, we'll just go down that list quick. Taiwan, new all-time highs. How do you feel about that?
You know, what does that say for semiconductors? What does that say for tech? What does that say for Asia?
Oh, I want to talk to Todd Sohn about this.
You like that? All right. So, what about, uh, Israel? Nothing but horrible news, uh, coming from Israel. Uh, throw up, throw up slide eight, guys. Um, give us a follow, uh, on Instagram, on YouTube, on the old Twitter X here.
Um, check this out, Jason.
Hold on. Hold on. Quick. Go to, go to, uh... There you go.
Go. Um, Israel, nothing but bad news coming out of this region. The Tel Aviv, the Tel Aviv 125 is up 50% in the last year. It's up 30% year to date. Nothing but bad news, justified or otherwise. It's not about geopolitics. Oh, I see.
Not bad news. Hold on. Okay.
Shanghai Composite 10-year highs.
Uh, Belgium all-time highs for the BEL 20. Oslo, new all-time highs. London FTSE 350. There's a broad look at British equities all-time highs. Look at Italy. Shout out Steve Strazza. His name ends in a vowel.
Shout out to the Milano Indic 40. New 18-year highs. Uh, Italy known for their food, their, their wine, the culture, the people, uh, the, just the, the architecture, not the stock market. New 18-year highs. And then finally, uh, the consumer. Uh, throw up that consumer chart. What'd you guys do with that consumer chart? Uh, there it is. Equally weighted consumer discretionary all-time highs. So, those are just a few of the ones that stood out to me. I mean, there's more. New all-time highs in the New York Stock Exchange Composite, S&P 500, Dow. I mean, we could, we could go down that list, but, uh, the non-obvious, those are a few that stood out to me. Any, any final words before we bring on Kenny?
No. Shout out Italy. I had the worst pizza of my life last night.
Dude, you live in Florida, man. They don't know anything about pizza.
I'm going to keep trying.
As you should. I found a decent taco place the other day.
Somewhat edible. So, just keep trying. You know...
I did find a decent pizza place in San Diego. Didn't see that one coming.
San Diego. It's on. I think I was with you, wasn't I?
Probably. All right, bring Kenny on. We'll talk about Asia with Todd.
All right, let's go. Bring on Kenny.
It's been a long time coming.
99.
Oh, Mr. Kenny Glick. How are you, sir? There was a lot to unpack on what you just said, man. Oh, man. I don't even know where to go.
Well, I, I'll talk about Trump manipulating stocks and coins in front of everybody. You know why people are upset? Because the stuff that he gets away with, normal people would go to jail. Martha Stewart, for God's sakes, come on now. Martha Stewart goes to jail for what? Nothing. But yet we see blatant criminality going on on a daily basis. That's why people are upset. But more importantly, how about that silver? Huh? Silver.
Silver on my desk since we started doing this show. Just came back from Colorado. We picked up some silver right out of the mines. What's up, Estes Park? Beautiful. Look at this thing. Little gold chip embedded in the bar.
Where do you get them all? Like, do you go to a dealer or like he's like all over the place? Well...
Well, we found the little coin shop in Estes Park and my, my wife... Oh, and by the way, Sean was with us also. I met Sean who lives in the town next door.
Did you buy any silver, too, or no?
No, but they had to pull me out of the store. For little, for little towns that have such a great shop. I mean, it was awesome. It was... I didn't mind paying some premium, but I've been buying silver. And, uh, silver, do you think you want...
But Kenny, you'll go to like these are like coin dealers, these shops.
Yeah, I go to coin dealers. I go to coin stores. I got a couple of online stuff also. I buy bullion from the dealers online and then I go to these coin, you know, I geek out with the old guys. I'm the young buck in the room always.
No, that's a lot of people don't forget that Kenny's a perma bear.
Yeah. And waking up to see this blood red, man. Seasonality is here. Bang. Let's start selling the market. I mean, wow.
So, they're coming in hot selling this morning. Dow up 450 points. NASDAQ down a percent and a half. They're hitting them pretty hard this morning. Bonds are selling off as well. So interest rates are going up. Energy's going up. Metals are going up. Volatility is going up. VIX almost at 20, by the way.
Yeah, pretty fun. Pretty fun. I mean, is there something more to this? I haven't actually put the news on yet. I just turned the computer on. The futures were up last night and I was wondering if seasonality was going to kick in, so here it is. Is there something going on that I don't know?
Well, historically, September is positive. Historically on average when it begins the month above its 200-day moving average, which it currently is. So historically speaking, if seasonality means anything to you, September should be a positive month for the S&P 500.
So keep that in mind. Also the September to December period is historically much better in a second term for the president, which this qualifies as well.
Interesting. Something. Keep in mind, little bit of a wrinkle there on the seasonality.
Let's talk about also Jim Cramer was out this morning telling everybody how bad September is for stocks. So, you know, couple things to think about.
Well, I'm glad it's getting off to a start like this. I mean, actually, this actually does make sense. Thursday, well, we got the, you know, we were on the exchange and Nvidia came out.
That was fun. You enjoy yourself? That was Wednesday, by the way.
Yeah, Wednesday. I bought that dip and it was, you know, again, it worked. You know, you give me a 10-point sell on Nvidia and I bought the Qs and because I was going away on vacation and weird things happen while I'm away, I decided to cash out and luckily I did. But Friday selling usually begets the Monday selloff. So, rationality's here. My god, this is crazy. So, I'm excited. I'm excited.
What's on the move this morning? You know, the funny thing is here's a weird coincidence, as I don't find this to be a coincidence, but we were looking at some uranium stocks, right? And we had Leon with us and he was giving me his list of uranium and ideas for nuclear stocks and uranium stocks going forward with the next couple of years. I'm interested in the sector. I accidentally typed in UU when it's actually four U's as a uranium stock. So I typed in UU and there's a stock going crazy called Universal Safety Products. Weird coincidence, but I'm just watching it now and it just held VWAP and bounced off it. But I want to give a shout out to my Newegg fans. Now, who stayed short this whole time, baby? Come on. Where are my people that are still in at 130 all the way down to 40 bucks where we thought this thing could fall? Wow. See, the one thing I love about being bearish is that I could smell a pump and dump a mile away. But I like them when they dump and then they Andy Dufresne. And I know when the shorts overstay their welcome.
That's why I remain a bear. I'll still be a bear. I'll always be a bear. And I love being called the most bullish bear in the world because I do love when stocks crash because the good ones come back up like the Carvana, which was one of my greatest calls in the history of ever. So loving the new short. I hope you guys crushed it. But right now, I got to stay focused on the Qs and the market overall. If volatility products stay green, this market's going to stay down today. And we might actually have that, you know, still the generational lows are in. When I called generational lows about a month ago when Apple had the earnings reversal and we sold off to about 15,150 and then we had a monster rally from that point on. That low's still intact. And listen, we haven't even broke last week's lows. So, we're still above the Wednesday pivot from two weeks ago. So, this is still a nothing burger. Let me see us break down under the 20-day. And Ben, I don't have my charts up, but 20 days worth of VWAP. We're flirting with it right now. And if we get through that, we've got some real support right under there. But if that gives way, we're going to go say hello to our old friend Apple lows back on I think it was August 1st. So that's what I'm looking at right now. And I'm just going to stay focused on the Qs.
Are you looking for an upside reversal for a mean reversion up considering it's a bull market? I'm actually going to take a step back today. You know, I want to see if the buyers don't show up by, you know, 10:30, they might not be showing up today and we might actually get that, you know, 10% because listen, 10% off the top, we're talking about what, 58 points to the downside on the Qs. I'm good with that. I'm good with that. And then we'll see where we are from there. Because listen, I'm never going to call a bear market again. This is just your standard variety correction. And sometimes the correction gets a little scary and that's when it's usually over. So as soon as they say this time is different, that's when we start buying because it's never different.
How do you think about the European close?
I don't even look at when you talk about that late mid-morning.
We just had a little that looked like that might have been the low for the day when that kicked in and next thing you know we had a little bounce off that level. So right now, I mean we had that European close and we're through it now. Right. That was that little spike down at 8:45.
Correct. I mean Europe is not close yet. Still got some time.
Yeah. Well, whatever that spike was looks like that might have been the capitulation for the moment down at 6057. But if we break there and again I'm all about the Qs. So you know if we break down, I got there's two levels that are really key right now. There was a pivot point at around, let me give it to you, 5620, but I don't think we're going to hold. But I think we're going to be testing Wednesday's lows, which is that 55850 area. So, big fan of shorting on the bounce today. So, usually I'm just looking for the bounce to buy and the faux show bros. I'm going to take a step back. I'm going to take a step back from being the bullish bear guy. But, let's talk about Coldplay. Let's talk about the most overrated band in the world, Oasis. Who likes this band? Why is this
Everybody apparently is going to these Oasis concerts. They're saying it's fantastic. 80,000 people are showing up at these stadiums.
What do they have? Three songs? Who? I never understood this band.
I was there. Brett was supposed to go this weekend.
I think they're the most overrated band in the history of music.
Wow. Hard pass on Oasis.
I was actually just telling my wife, I was like, "Hey, everybody's talking about these Oasis concerts. You want to go?"
I mean, right there. Coldplay and Oasis. If they just went away, I wouldn't miss either one of those bands.
Oh, you can't put them in the same category. Oasis way better than Coldplay. Come on.
Oasis better than Coldplay. Wait, which one do you like better?
Oasis.
I don't know. They're both the same.
All right, ladies and gentlemen. Kenny Glick, hit the bed. Trade with
Keep buying silver is my point. Keep buying silver. If we get over 50 on silver, we're going to 80, baby. And it's about time.
120.
Silver to 120. I love it. All right. I'll see you guys in the room. Be careful.
All right. Adios. Kenny Glick, ladies and gentlemen. Never a dull moment. Dude has so much actual physical silver. I don't know anybody who has this much physical silver and he keeps buying more. And every time I see him, he shows me like his new keychain that has like actual silver in it and stuff like that. It's crazy.
I love it. I think it's hilarious. It's a super cool collection. Love it.
Listen, we got fan favorite Mr. Todd Sohn in the house. I know Steve Strazza has a lot of questions for him. I'll try not to hog the segment. I always have a lot of questions for Todd as well. It's very exciting when Todd comes.
He's sent some great charts. So, we'll just run through all of these.
Yeah. Not just a fan favorite, one of our favorites as well, Izzy. Bring them out. Bring them out.
JC, we've been friends for a long time. Make the call.
I mean, this is pretty professional, guys.
Nice show you got going here.
All right. All right, Mr. Phone in the house.
How are you?
What's new?
I'm a little hazy. I've been off the grid.
How were you?
I was in Utah, Park City, and I was in Colorado Springs with the family.
Was there like work stuff going on in those days? You know, my kids had
Kids are
school starts Thursday
and they've had like two and a half weeks off.
So, we had to, you know, you got to entertain them. JC, I'm sure you're in that phase where you're like, "What the hell do I do with my kids for the next week?"
Well, they started kindergarten last week, first day of the bus today. Let's see how that went. And the boys start on Thursday
at the old 2-year-old pre-K.
Yeah, pre-pre-K. They don't start pre-K till next year.
All right. But it ain't cheap.
Tell you,
you know, it's not bad. But the problem was getting them in cuz they're in high demand. And so like they hadn't gotten in. They had only let one of the kids in, not the other. I'm like, how are you? We have twins, right? And I'm like, I'm going to go in there and I'm going to give these nuns a little piece of my mind. Make them an offer they can't refuse. And my wife's like, no, don't do that. Don't do that. I'm like, I think I'm going to have to walk over there and just, you know, tell them how this is going to go down. And then literally my wife goes, "All right, this is enough. Go talk to the nuns." I was like, "All right." So I plan on going. The day before I went to go have a little conversation, a little sit down. They got in. So the gods were coming down looking on the situation. Said, you know, let's cut these nuns a break. Let the boys
I would have given them a free membership to the breakout multiplier.
No, you can't give that away for free.
I didn't even think about that. I wasn't going to be that nice about it, actually. And a call with Steve every month. One call. Nobody gets that.
No, I'd be like, "Listen, you either get the boys in or you're gonna be stuck on a call with Steve once a week."
But yeah, I don't know. It's just my wife and I cracked this weekend where it's like, "What do we do with these kids now? Now that we're back and
So, I'm just getting back.
Mr. Todd S, I want to hear, I know Strazza's got a bunch of questions for you, international stuff. You are the ETF man. I want to hear your thoughts kind of like on sentiment right now, where we, where you think we are in the cycle, you know, in terms of the equities, the sector rotation, new all-time highs across the board on a monthly closing basis internationally as well, four weeks in a row more bears than bulls on AAII, but you got the active investment managers a little elevated right, so some mixed signals there. Where do you think we are in the cycle?
I think we're climbing rightfully so, right, as you said before, it's a global bull market and global being really the key point here. This is not just the US.
So people are getting more enthusiastic, but you're not at the territory or the realm where I would say, "Oh, look out."
Like we were at the start of the year or at the start of 2020.
So sentiment is not a headwind right now.
I don't think it's a. Yeah. I think it's just leaning towards headwind if I had to pick, but I wouldn't call it this massive risk just yet.
Four weeks in a row, more bears than bulls from individual investors. Any thoughts there? Don't overthink.
What a. I don't love AAII. I just
It's very emotional, very erratic.
Yeah, I've never been a big fan of that. The flow data is starting to pick up and the Investors Intelligence, which is basically the cousin of AAII, is starting also to pick up.
Those are the newsletters. Newsletter writers.
Yeah. Yeah. So, those are getting more bullish, but it's
like how you said that, the cousin of AAII. Okay.
How many surveys we going to have here? You guys should start your own survey, too. You might as well.
Yeah. You know, funny you said that.
I need another one. I'm the only one who says that. People think I'm crazy. I'm with you, Todd.
Yeah. I mean, why don't we just do our own and screw them, just do a poll in here every day and have someone on the team start tracking it. And there you go.
Let me ask you something, Todd. Who publishes the short interest data?
Is it the exchanges?
How often is the short interest data published?
Is it every two weeks or something like that?
Oh, that is actually correct. Weeks from
I thought it was from the exchanges. Where does that come from?
The exchanges give it to
the exchanges. The brokers give it to FINRA.
You know exchanges are part of that. Yeah.
I don't have the live data. I have the delayed fugazi sentiment short interest data.
There's no live data. Well, there's certain, you know, there's services, right? Yeah. You know, people
No, that's fair. No, that's fair.
FINRA takes forever to compile the information. That's why it's on such a delay.
It's the same thing as the Commitment of Traders report. It's like it's interesting, but it's delayed.
Yo, that agency is such a joke that they couldn't even get that report out for like three straight weeks.
I don't think you're a joke.
COT data. Imagine running a strategy that literally relies on those numbers as inputs. Like, do you stop running it?
Remember when they didn't run it for like three or four weeks cuz like their machines broke or something? Remember,
wasn't that like years ago?
It was like a couple years ago.
They like couldn't get it done.
