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Shawn Hackett
Agricultural Market Analyst, Hackett Financial Advisors

Harvest Pressure, Pricey Diesel and Montana’s Neighborhood Horses

📅 Oct 16, 2026 Market to Market 26 MIN 12032 VIEWS 75 SEGMENTS · 8 SPEAKERS
Harvest pressure is building, and so are the bills. An Oregon sugarbeet grower’s diesel cost to haul beets has nearly doubled as growers seek higher sugar import tariffs. In Montana, a county adopts a plan for feral horses roaming neighborhoods. Plus, economic reports ahead of the midterms and Shawn Hackett’s analysis of harvest pressure in grain markets. Go deeper with Market Plus - watch more extended market conversations and analysis.    • Market Plus   Listen to the MtoM Podcast - more conversations on agriculture, markets and the issues shaping rural America.    • Market to Market Pod...

What Shawn Hackett said

Written from the verified transcript and checked against it. Every figure links to the moment it was said.

Shawn Hackett, agricultural market analyst at Hackett Financial Advisors, discussed commodity markets with host Paul Yeager. On wheat, he said current prices make planting more acres a good proposition, but warned that a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire deal could temporarily hit prices, though he believes any sell-off would be short-lived given low prices, 50% lower exports, and Russian planted acres not exceeding 2014 levels. He questioned the USDA's large yield increases in the October report, arguing they lacked sufficient harvest data and should have waited for November. He also doubted the quarterly grain stocks increase of 180 million bushels, citing firming cash basis as evidence of tighter supply. He advised against selling corn now, expecting a bullish turn in November. For soybeans, he agreed with USDA yields but saw harvest pressure and strong Brazilian planting as bearish, though a strengthening super El Niño could bring drier, hotter weather to Brazil in late November-December, potentially creating a weather catalyst. He saw cotton as oversold, with crude oil at $100 and poor global crops. On cattle, he noted headwinds from imports and consumer resistance, with packers prioritizing profits. He saw seasonal factors boosting hogs, with GLP-1 demand showing up in dairy protein rather than pork. He expected crude oil to continue rising due to Iran tensions.

Key takeaways

  1. Wheat prices are low enough that any Russia-Ukraine ceasefire sell-off would be short-lived, with exports down 50% and Russian planted acres not exceeding 2014 levels.
  2. USDA's October yield increases lacked sufficient harvest data; the November report would provide better evidence, and cash basis firming suggests the market is tighter than reported.
  3. Corn market is expected to struggle into end of October, but November could bring a bullish turning point with South American weather, harvest results, and post-election clarity.
  4. A strengthening super El Niño could bring drier, hotter conditions to Brazil in late November-December, potentially creating a weather catalyst for soybeans.
  5. Cotton market has overdone the downside, with crude oil at $100 and poor global crops, setting up for a turn back up.

Numbers and commitments

FigureWhat it refers toTypeAt
50% Decline in wheat exports from last year metric 14:25
180 million bushels Increase in quarterly grain stocks above expectations metric 16:40
$100 a barrel Crude oil spot price price 21:29

Chapters

  1. 0:00Wheat market outlook
  2. 15:44USDA report criticism
  3. 16:40Corn demand and cash basis
  4. 19:11Soybean harvest and Brazil weather
  5. 21:29Cotton market reversal
  6. 22:21Cattle market headwinds
  7. 23:45Hog market and protein demand
  8. 24:28Crude oil and Iran tensions

Questions asked in this interview

12
  1. 13:17But let's talk about the wheat market for a moment, because rain has impacted domestic producers, given them encouragement to plant more wheat acres. Good idea?
  2. 14:02And there's a back and forth in a political situation that's happening that's going to play out, I think, in the wheat market. Is that an accurate read?
  3. 15:09And you mean a deal between the two countries?
  4. 16:34The report's been traded. What do I do now?
  5. 17:22Well, there was a report late this week that Gulf basis had firmed and now comparable to Argentina corn. What does that mean?
  6. 18:07Has that happened, and has there been any indication that the sell-off is over?
  7. 19:02Is that the biggest factor in the soybean market this week?
  8. 20:47And is the tail end of that, or the converse of that here in the United States, if we have a continued delayed harvest, the harvest continues to be delayed, or is that not a factor anymore with this super El Niño?
  9. 21:25Or is that bull finally starting to appear?
  10. 22:05But what is happening for the December — yeah, the December cattle market for live cattle?
  11. 23:21Anything else on feeders you want to add?
  12. 23:41Haven't said this in a while: hog market had a good week. Why?
Paul Yeager 0:01 ↗
Coming up on Market to Market: from beets to beans, farmers navigate high diesel prices at harvest. How one Western community is handling feral horses that have come to town. And commodity market analysis with Shawn Hackett, next.
Announcer 0:17 ↗
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Family owned and operated for more than 60 years. Sukup Manufacturing is a full-service provider of grain handling, storage and drying equipment, helping farmers feed and fuel the world.
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Support for Market to Market has been provided by a bequest from Philip Lietz of Alta, Iowa, in recognition of public television's commitment to agricultural programming.
Market to Market is made possible in part by a grant from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
This is the Friday, October 16th edition of Market to Market, the Weekly Journal of Rural America.
Paul Yeager 1:32 ↗
Hello, I'm Paul Yeager. The midterm elections are two weeks from Tuesday, and this week brought some of the last economic reports before voting day. A majority of these indicators were influenced by one thing: higher gas and diesel prices. Existing home sales rose in September by 1.5%, but remain below a year ago. Buyers still face firm prices and rising interest rates. Consumer inflation came in hot. The consumer price index added six-tenths of a percent on the month and 3.7% on the year, with gasoline accounting for more than half of the monthly gain. Wholesale inflation posted its largest monthly expansion since 2022. The producer price index climbed by 1.3% in September and 6.3% from a year ago. Retail sales, which track total dollars spent by shoppers, went up eight-tenths of a percent. Food and furniture sales gained, but gas stations accounted for most of the increase. AAA says Friday's average diesel price is $0.20, or 3%, below the record set 24 days ago. But it's still 73% higher than a year ago, making this an expensive harvest. From the bean belt to the beet belt, for sugar beet growers, fuel is only half the squeeze. They say imported sugar is undercutting their prices, and they're asking Congress to raise the tariff on it. Our Mountain West bureau chief, Tammy Scardino, reports.
Tammy Scardino 3:08 ↗
Gabe Flock is one of 600 sugar beet farmers who belong to the Snake River Sugar Beet Growers Association. The sweet vegetable is newer to the mix of about 16 different crop plants.
Gabe Flock 3:23 ↗
And the reason we did is, I mean, partly for the stability, we needed another rotation crop.
Tammy Scardino 3:29 ↗
Sugar beet harvest just started along the Oregon slope for this first-generation farmer. So far, he says it's looking to be an average year for yields, about 45 tons per acre. The projected cooperative average is a little more than 40 tons per acre. Flock, like many in agriculture, is facing pressure from increased fuel costs.
Gabe Flock 3:55 ↗
Generally, it costs us about $23 an acre in diesel just to get the beets from this field five miles down the road to the dump. And right now, we're running about $44 an acre.
Tammy Scardino 4:05 ↗
He's also looking at tariffs pulling down on the price of his beets within the U.S. sugar import system. Tier one imports are the quota sugar, while tier two sugar importers pay a higher over-quota tariff to enter the country, but in unlimited quantities. Samantha Parrott is the executive director of the Snake River Sugar Beet Growers Association, which represents Idaho, Oregon and Washington state.
Samantha Parrott 4:32 ↗
This is sugar above and beyond what we need for the market. And so right now, we're asking Congress to raise that tier two tariff in order to prohibit that extra sugar from coming in. That truly is undercutting our American farmers.
Tammy Scardino 4:50 ↗
Parrott says on average, U.S. sugar beet farmers are losing $500 an acre.
Gabe Flock 4:56 ↗
Still operating in a loss. But we're hoping that by next year that we kind of start to pull back up into the black.
Tammy Scardino 5:02 ↗
For Market to Market, I'm Tammy Scardino.
Paul Yeager 5:07 ↗
The Wild Free-Roaming Horses and Burros Act of 1971 charges the Bureau of Land Management with managing herds of feral horses on public lands. Just last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture invested $30 million to expand wild herd fertility control efforts nationwide to help safeguard the spirit of the West. The funding gives BLM agents access to more options in remote areas where the bands of horses exist. But the question of who handles abandoned horses came up recently in Big Sky country, prompting action. Our Mountain West bureau chief, Tammy Scardino, explains in this week's cover story.
Tammy Scardino 5:53 ↗
It's not every day you see mares and their yearlings roaming freely in residential subdivisions, but over the last couple of years, these types of sightings have become more frequent in the Miller Creek area south of Missoula, Montana.
Bobbie Thompson 6:11 ↗
Two things kind of happened at once. More housing started to be built down there, and it's really developing fast. Also, the horses, you know, we don't really know why. It could be predators that were after them. It could be, you know, they just found out that, hey, there's nice lush grass to graze on in the homes. But they did start going down into the Lower Miller Creek area.
Tammy Scardino 6:40 ↗
The herd of about 100 horses roaming around the area are not considered wild because their ancestors were domesticated. Area resident Bobby Thompson says close to her backyard in Upper Miller Creek, rodeos used to be held with spectators sitting on the hillside. The only remnants left behind are this street sign and the ranch horses that were either let go or got loose.
Bobbie Thompson 7:07 ↗
Roughly a year after we moved in, which would have been in 2021, the horses would come up over the hill and graze in the area behind us here, and it was just lovely.
Tammy Scardino 7:19 ↗
Thompson is a professional horse photographer, and she didn't pass up the opportunity to capture the moment for many years. It was unclear as to which government agency had jurisdiction over the horses. In an attempt to help clear up the confusion, the Missoula County Board of Commissioners considered the options. Among several reasons for adopting a new policy was a concern about road safety. Residents were worried vehicles colliding with a 1,500-pound horse could send a motorist to the hospital. In September of 2025, one of the stallions from the Miller Creek band was hit by a car and the horse had to be put down. Prior to the accident, some residents in the county had no idea feral horses were moving through local neighborhoods. Following the crash, it became a topic of conversation and there was an increase in calls to law enforcement. This incident also resulted in the formation of two Facebook groups. One of them, the Miller Creek Horse Alliance, became a registered nonprofit. Thompson serves as the interim vice president of the Horse Alliance board.
Bobbie Thompson 8:35 ↗
I love having 8 or 10, 12 horses in the backyard when they come through. I don't want 50.
Tammy Scardino 8:45 ↗
A part of the alliance's focus is to inform the public on how to act around the animals. They sent a letter to the school superintendent requesting educational materials be circulated. This included a safety notice that when the horses show up on school grounds or anywhere near humans, it's advised to not pet them due to the unpredictable behavior of the animals. Also, to not feed the horses because they can become aggressive and bite or kick, Thompson says. Staying at least 50 feet away is your best bet.
Bobbie Thompson 9:22 ↗
If the horses get spooked, and that could be something as a loose dog off leash charging at them, a child making, you know, sudden movements, a car driving by and making a loud noise. And in that situation, they're going to flee. You know, it would be a bad situation if a child or a person were in the way when that happens.
Tammy Scardino 9:48 ↗
An official management plan was eventually adopted by the Missoula County Board of Commissioners in late 2025. When developing the policy, the board joined forces with several state agency representatives and experts in land and livestock to assess the situation. Among the public concerns were the possible spread of disease to domestic horses and property damage to fences and lawns. Other groups advocated for the horses' freedom and wanted to see the development of a humane management plan because it was almost certain the population would increase. Horse populations can double every four to five years. Josh Slotnick is chair of the Missoula County Board of Commissioners.
Josh Slotnick 10:40 ↗
And I'm really proud of it because we combined sort of scientific expertise with public engagement and really listened to the neighbors. And what we ended up with was something everybody was pretty happy with.
Tammy Scardino 10:53 ↗
Ultimately, the resolution that was adopted provides a process to manage conflicts and ban population. The measure also paves the way for future installation of permanent warning signs along county roads. Private landowners can now alert authorities of a problem horse on their property. Local law enforcement and Department of Livestock inspectors can then determine if the horse is in fact feral and does not belong to someone or has been reported stolen. The animal can then be vaccinated and rehomed by the state, the landowner or a nonprofit.
Josh Slotnick 11:30 ↗
People love horses. They love seeing them on the landscape. They love feeling like, wow, we are living in a kind of coexistence way with animals, and that makes them feel good about where they are. We can live that way. We just have to be smart about it.
Tammy Scardino 11:42 ↗
For Market to Market, I'm Tammy Scardino.
Announcer 11:50 ↗
Next, the Market to Market report.
Paul Yeager 11:54 ↗
The market is dealing with harvest hitting full stride and extended sell-off in the wake of USDA boosting yield projections last week. For the trading week ending October 16th, the nearby wheat contract sold off $0.11 and the December corn contract lost $0.06. Another large crop in Brazil and the fast harvest provided pressure on the soy complex. The November soybean contract fell $0.31 and December meal decreased by $8.50 per ton. December cotton sold off $0.54 per hundredweight. November Class III milk futures added $1.27 per hundredweight. The livestock market was higher. December cattle improved to $1.30. January feeders gained $1.93 and December lean hogs put on 310. In the currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index fell 37 ticks. November crude oil gained 10%, or 9.5 cents per barrel. COMEX gold sold off $38 per ounce, and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was up by more than 13 points to settle at 751.65. Here now to lend us his insight on these and other trends is regular market analyst, Shawn Hackett. Hello, sir.
Shawn Hackett 13:11 ↗
Hey, Paul, wonderful weather. Thank you so much for the great feeling when I got off the plane.
Paul Yeager 13:17 ↗
Anything we can do to make you feel like what it was like in Middle America this fall with all the rain and now the cold. And the rain has been the story of the corn and soybean market. But let's talk about the wheat market for a moment, because rain has impacted domestic producers, given them encouragement to plant more wheat acres. Good idea?
Shawn Hackett 13:37 ↗
Well, with the price that we currently have, I mean, it kind of pencils out pretty nicely right now. And if the Russia-Ukraine situation remains unstable, which everything says it's going to be, you know, that's not a bad proposition at this point to get some more wheat in the ground. It's not the most expensive crop to put in the ground. And if we come out in the spring with, you know, higher prices and such and good yields, they could have some pretty good balance sheets from that.
Paul Yeager 14:02 ↗
Russia, Ukraine have been exchanging bombs with each other for quite some time this week. The White House gets involved and there's a deal about diesel, which then gives fuel to one of — to Ukraine, into Russia. And there's a back and forth in a political situation that's happening that's going to play out, I think, in the wheat market. Is that an accurate read?

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APA

Hackett, S. (2026, October 16). Harvest Pressure, Pricey Diesel and Montana’s Neighborhood Horses [Interview transcript]. Market to Market. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3102023/

MLA

Shawn Hackett. "Harvest Pressure, Pricey Diesel and Montana’s Neighborhood Horses." Market to Market, 16 Oct. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3102023/.

BibTeX
@misc{hackett2026_3102023,
  author       = {Shawn Hackett},
  title        = {Harvest Pressure, Pricey Diesel and Montana’s Neighborhood Horses},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, Market to Market. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {oct},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3102023/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}