Mark Zandi MCO

Chief Economist, Moody's Corporation

Mark Zandi Moody's Corporation

📅 Oct 21, 2026 United Nations Global Compact 17 MIN 2 VIEWS 11 SEGMENTS · 2 SPEAKERS

What Mark Zandi said

Written from the verified transcript and checked against it. Every figure links to the moment it was said.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said the global economy is being shaped by two crosswinds: deglobalization as a headwind and artificial intelligence as a tailwind. He argued deglobalization, including tariffs, restrictive immigration policy, the Iran war, and weakened global institutions, is raising inflation and interest rates. Zandi estimated inflation is over a percentage point higher than otherwise, with the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% since the war started. He said AI is powering growth through data center buildouts, with over 5,000 data centers in the US, and lifting stock prices, with US stocks doubling to $70 trillion since ChatGPT's launch. He expects these forces to balance for the next 18 to 24 months, with risks tilted to the downside, including sovereign debt, cyber attacks, and equity overvaluation. Zandi ended optimistically, citing new business formation tied to AI adoption.

Key takeaways

Deglobalization and AI will keep global growth near potential for the next 18 to 24 months, with risks decidedly to the downside.
Inflation is over a percentage point higher than it would be without tariffs, the Iran war, immigration policy, and a weaker dollar.
The 10-year Treasury yield is over 5%, up from below 4% when the war started, making capital-intensive investments costlier.
US stocks have doubled to $70 trillion since ChatGPT launched four years ago, mostly driven by AI.

Numbers and commitments

Figure	What it refers to	Type	At
over 5%	10-year Treasury yield since the Iran war started	metric	8:44
$70 trillion	Current US stock market value, doubled from four years ago	metric	11:36
over 5,000	Number of data centers in the US	metric	10:00
over $100 a barrel	Oil price due to the Iran war	metric	6:04
a little over 3%	Inflation as measured by the consumer expenditure deflator	metric	3:58
below 4%	10-year Treasury yield before the war started	metric	8:44
$35 trillion	US stock market value four years ago	metric	11:36

Chapters

0:00Global economy crosswinds
3:58Deglobalization as headwind
6:04Inflation and interest rates
10:00AI as tailwind
12:52Downside risk matrix
15:13Optimistic outlook

Host 0:05 ↗

To open the conversation, we are excited to have Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. This session is going to look at the roles markets play in either accelerating sustainable development or holding it back, and what it takes to create the right incentives for responsible business to thrive. Mark is going to set the stage with a look at the macroeconomic forces shaping the road ahead, from AI and natural resources to climate risk, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty, and what they mean for sustainable finance and long-term economic resilience. So, please welcome to the stage Mark Zandi.

2 more exchanges in this transcript

Cite this transcript

APA, MLA, BibTeX

APA

Zandi, M. (2026, October 21). Mark Zandi Moody's Corporation [Interview transcript]. United Nations Global Compact. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3109596/

MLA

Mark Zandi. "Mark Zandi Moody's Corporation." United Nations Global Compact, 21 Oct. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3109596/.

BibTeX

@misc{zandi2026_3109596,
  author       = {Mark Zandi},
  title        = {Mark Zandi   Moody's Corporation},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, United Nations Global Compact. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {oct},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3109596/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}

▶

Key Quotes (2)

“The headwind is deglobalization. The US economy is pulling away from the rest of the world very rapidly. Lots of different ways that's happening. Tariffs being a good example of that. Highly restrictive immigration policy. Another the Iran war. Kind of the marginalization of different global institutions that are key to the globalization process. Everything from the World Trade Organization to the”

▶ 1:16 POLICY

“The deglobalization is weighing on the economy by raising inflation and now resulting in much higher interest rates. And obviously this has very significant implications for any business industry that needs a lot of capital. Particularly if you go to the sustainability industry, there's a lot of capital that's necessary to drive that and it's now become much more costly to invest because of the hi”

▶ 4:57 CONTROVERSIAL POLICY

Mentioned in this interview

Federal Reserve Board: Sets 2% inflation target and just began raising rates.

World Trade Organization: Marginalized as part of deglobalization process.

World Health Organization: Marginalized as part of deglobalization process.

NATO: Marginalized as part of deglobalization process.

United Nations: Marginalized as part of deglobalization process.

President Trump: Pulled back on some tariffs, reducing inflationary pressures.

ChatGPT: Starting point for AI, launching four years ago.

Mexico: Now exporting more servers to the US than vehicles.

Earlier, on the same topics

“No, I see it as a huge problem. I just don't think Fed policy higher interest rates are going to solve that problem. This is due to the fact that we're waging a war in Iran in the Middle East. You can hike interest rates tenfold; it's not going to make any difference on that. We're paying higher pri”

inflation · Sep 16, 2026 at 29:13 →

“I'm not a fan of broad-based tariffs. I mean, strategic tariffs, no problem. I can kind of get that. But the broad-based tariffs, so you know, we've been there, we've done that. You mentioned the 1930s. In fact, you can go back 100 years before that under Andrew Jackson, and we tried broad-based tar”

inflation · Aug 29, 2025 at 50:01 →

“The Fed for the foreseeable future at least next few couple me three meetings is on hold. They're just going to sit on their hands for two reasons. One, they don't know how this is all going to play out. What exactly is the ceasefire? Is it going to hold? What does it mean? Where are oil prices goin”

inflation · Apr 10, 2026 at 18:25 →

“No, it's more than Iran. I mean, obviously Iran's a big part of it. The bulk of the inflation acceleration is energy prices. But it goes to the tariffs. There's still some tariff pass through. It goes to the restrictive immigration policy which is having an impact on different industries and causing”

artificial intelligence · Jun 11, 2026 at 13:36 →

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About Mark Zandi

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, has made multiple media appearances in the weeks ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, discussing the state of the economy and its political implications. In an October 16 conversation hosted by Dialogue Vanderbilt, Zandi and Doug Holtz-Eakin discussed economic issues facing Americans. Zandi has described the U.S. economy as experiencing significant headwinds from what he calls "deglobalization," citing tariffs, restrictive immigration policies, and the Iran war as factors raising inflation and interest rates. He has also repeatedly stated that the economy is split between a strong performance for high-income households and struggles for lower-income Americans, noting that the bottom 80% of income earners face falling real wages and that housing has become "completely unaffordable," with typical monthly mortgage payments roughly doubling since 2019. Zandi has been a vocal critic of current monetary policy, arguing that the Federal Reserve should hold interest rates steady rather than raise them, saying that higher borrowing costs will not solve inflation driven by supply-side shocks such as the Iran war, tariffs, and immigration restrictions. He has stated that the August jobs report, while strong on the surface, "overstates the case" and that the job market is creating fewer jobs than data suggest. Zandi has also said he believes the AI-driven sector is a key tailwind boosting the economy, and he has expressed confidence that "never bet against the American economy," while warning that without guardrails, the AI tailwind could become a headwind.

All Mark Zandi appearances → United Nations Global Compact on YouTube →