The best way to price anything is a market where you get rewarded for being right and you get punished for being wrong. Instead of like settling something via debate, the market will filter it. You're taking this complete mess of subjective emotion and debate to the clean plane of mathematics. Information doesn't lie in the traditional authority figures or institutions. It actually is very distributed amongst the crowd. Prediction markets are the best at forecasting the future.
What's the true innovation of prediction markets? So, you know, um,
Tar Manser, co-founder and CEO of Kshi, the largest federally regulated exchange for event trading, a former Goldman Sachs and Citadel trader.
Advancing prediction markets as an asset class.
How does prediction markets revolutionize the media industry? One, it's a version of going direct. There's no intermediaries. There's no filter. There's no spin. There's nothing between you and the answer. Second thing is the incentive structure in prediction markets is truth. You get paid if you're right, and you get punished and lose money if you're wrong. That doesn't quite exist in traditional media.
Touch is launching the very first regulated per in the USA. It's what people want. The offshore market is very very good valuation. There's no first principal reason for why the US should be different. What does the regulated pers actually mean? Let's talk about the distinction like one should be future versus a when it comes to digital assets like Bitcoin etc. They don't have an end, then the derive should not have an unnatural end, should be a perpetual. People should decide when they want to close their own position. I had Armstrong on this podcast a few months ago and he says insider trading is 100% necessary in prediction markets.
I I I read a tweet recently which I totally
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Crazy week. Is it not a crazy week every week?
This, you know. Yeah, I mean it is. There's some variance. This one was cuz they just passed market structure and there's a bunch of going on out of committee. Uh, and everything is like usually very urgent with these things. So,
How do you know what's urgent and what's not urgent if everything is urgent?
It has to be sort of like consequential and then there's like a deadline like basically there there are things like and consequential is usually things that are like pretty important and then they're like one-way door. So it's like you cannot you cannot just sort of like you know the type one type two from Bezos like you cannot revert a decision after it's made like after the thing happens. Um those you should give a lot of attention to because if you made a mistake you cannot change that later down the line. Uh whereas if like you can revert back then it's okay you you don't like someone else can handle it like you can let it be. It's okay to skip at that line. Worst case you know in two weeks you basically change it. Um so is this mine by the way?
Yeah it's yours. I was told you love anime. I was like this is perfect. I'm going to put it there to to put it in good mood. In good mood.
I have a lot of these. I have a lot of these in my house. I mean all my house is like decorated as anime.
Where is the anime passion coming from and since I was a kid like I just loved I started like reading Dragon Ball and it was like six maybe five six. Um and then since then I just like a huge huge fan. Uh, you know, I think a lot of a much larger percentage of people like anime than u people know because when I liked it, it was something that you just don't tell people about. You know, it's like kind of like a pretty uncool thing to do. Like, you know, you're like a big nerd if you like anime. But now it's like pretty cool. Like people like, you know, uh people are like came out of the closet. Uh people that like anime came out of the closet. So it's like uh because you know it's pretty cool to be a nerd now. So it's different. Now you can proudly show them in the in the office and we can proudly put it on the table.
That's right. How are you doing?
Pretty good. Yeah, life is good.
Um, it's pretty good. I mean like you know the company is is growing like I think the I think the product is getting uh a lot better fast. I think we have a really incredible team and I think that's sort of the best usually that's the best leading indicator of most things. It's like the product is really really improving and that's really exciting and consumers are increasing and loving the product more which is really good. Um I just think things end up like when you're in this sort of hyperinflection phase um the the analogies like you have always things being thrown at you all the time all the time just like non-stop. And you know we're a small team you know we're we're like still 150 people or so. So like um everyone is like overstretched all the time. So, you know, things feel pretty hectic, but it's a good type of he hectic like the exciting one.
Who am I? It's pretty philosophical. Let me think. It's a good question. Um, so a few things I would say. One of my most defining characteristics is like I'm a math nerd at heart. I really, really love math. like that's a lot of what has like guided what I want to work on and what I get excited about when I'm like, you know, um in the day-to-day in the in the work. Um and you know, I um you know, I I like to find ways. So I I really like math and then more specifically within math you know when I went to MIT you know so I spent time you know uh in Lebanon like really kind of figured out okay where are the math math nerds going and MIT was one of the names that came up so I really worked very hard when I was in Lebanon to figure out how to get into MIT and it was hard to get in from Lebanon all of that and at MIT I started really liking the types of classes I really liked is like a little bit more on the theoretical side and then I really loved information theory and probability I really really liked uh everything around sort of like you know like all these concept around model capacity like how do you encode information like you know u uh uh um uh in the most compact way um and then just probability theory just everything around that and that led me naturally to finance because that's where you can you know apply these things I I wanted to be I didn't want to be necessarily in academia I wanted to like apply it um and the more time I spent in finance the more I liked it I I I liked I like that there's like some degree of objective function like uh that is pretty clear and well defined you know like that's why I like working at Citadel because the culture there is like what is your piano there's no subjectivity there's no debate there's no like it's very hard to debate right you have a number and I like that I I really like the the the certainty of mathematics and and I don't know why I mean I can respond to that I don't know if you want to follow up on that
Certainty of mathematics to define who is the best or just certainty of mathematics. There's a certain sort of um
So growing growing up in Lebanon um I would say there was two things you know one that was broader macro and then one that is more micro that defined me. Uh the macro one is like Lebanon is a very um um volatile country extremely volatile country right I wouldn't say it spikes in like dangerousness or or level of conflict or level of peace or level it spikes in volatility things are always always changing like you know it's like you can go from full-blown peace to full-blown uh war over like really quickly like from you know safety to civil unrest really quickly thing it all stays back and forth and people got used to that but it's very volatile. There's always a lot of stuff going on. Um and then the second thing is I grew up with a single mom and a single mom household which create there's like an underlying feeling of anxiety. You look for like refuge and it's hard to have without like a dad present in the in the house. And it's interesting because when you talk to a lot of funnily enough like a lot of entrepreneurs like a disproportionate number of entrepreneurs have had similar setups growing up. Um, I personally found refuge in math. Like I like the fact that there's an answer, you know. Uh, it's like a word where you can go to and like you can box out the problem and like find an answer at the end. And I found that to be very elegant. It was it's really beautiful and and the answer is not you cannot debate it. Like a math proof is so elegant and beautiful because when you get it right, there is no debate. There is no um like vagueness. There's no nuance. It's just like, okay, does it work or does it not work? And there's I don't know that that's the certainty that I'm talking about. It's a a bit of a feeling of it feels safe, right? It's it's beautiful. It's symmetric. It's well structured versus the outside world that was like complete chaos all the time, right? Um, so yeah, you said there's many entrepreneurs who have a common story. I actually always ask this question to all the people I interview because they they have this common pattern which is a childhood trauma or something that happened in their life that gave them this fire in the belly and drive.
Yeah.
For this incredible success that they have today. Do you want to develop a bit more on that? like h maybe what what we mentioned with your mother and how it impacted your fire in the belly and enabled you to be a multi-billionaire before 30 years old which is something that pretty much doesn't exist. Yeah, I think um um so a few things happen but like definitely the single mom thing is a very defining um at least something that has really defined me and it's it's and it's not just that it's that plus my mom had this sort of extremely high expectation um uh extremely high standard of us extremely high expectations and to sort of unwavering belief and conviction that we will do great things and in some ways had to do great things like we had to be great and you know I talked to her sometimes about it and and what was it I mean she had like really a very deep sense of anxiety that we would like you know uh be a little bit like our dad and like kind of not be there and like not fully achieve our potential and all these different things and she also sort of um in some ways when she had us and she went through a divorce etc we basically became like uh her life like her achievement her success like the way she I think ended up measuring herself is through the success of her children right and she's like you know she's like a harsh person she's someone who really like has you know it's like kind of my way or the highway I want like like you know like nine out of 10 is is is a loss you have to be 10 out of 10 and all that and it it was intense it was like a very intense version of that plus there was like all the you know the Lebanon volatility the financial sort of like stress and anxiety and like we like carried a lot of that and you know people that like grew up in financial stress. Um it doesn't leave you you know like this sort of thing never leaves you right and you like want to help your mom because you you feel kind of like you feel always stressed and your mom is alone and like she's doing all these things by herself. Um and and as the eldest like I was the eldest so we were two brothers and I was the eldest. as the eldest you start putting like these types of responsibilities on yourself like you know am I doing enough even though you're like a you know 13-year-old right uh and and you carry that anxiety with you all of that doesn't leave you right and then you you see people around you that like have full families like they they live normal lives and uh you know you you you sort of like um you start seeking this notion of like um Yeah, refuge like you want you wanna you want to have it for yourself and I think it ends up all of that ends up bottling up it as a sort of monster chip on on your shoulder basically it all ends up manifesting itself. I mean, look, it depends. Some, you know, I think maybe in some ways my brother and I were lucky that it end up manifesting that way, but maybe in some other places you could end up, you know, it could end up like going in the other direction, like in a in a more negative direction, right? Um, and uh, but yeah, my mom really pushed us. So, it's it's channeled in that direction. And so, ended up being very OCD, very sort of uh, focused, very perfectionist, very like competitive. Like I, you know, I you know, I really want to like always always give it my all. Like my biggest fear is not leaving it all on the field. It's is you know walking out of a day or walking out of something and be like I did not give it my absolute best. I didn't try any everything I could possibly try to basically make this happen. Um and so that just doesn't leave you like I think that just you know that momentum and drive basically ends up you know staying with you for for a long period of time. Um and I think that's the case that's the case for me. Um uh you know I challened my love for math. the challenge in my like in like my competitiveness. I challenges challenge it in my wanting to basically like you know learn more and more about things and then after a while into building a company. Um yeah
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You said my brother and I.
Mhm. What does your brother do?
He is working at a hedge fund in in in London. Um he actually is more like um you know it's it's interesting you know have you ever played FIFA the soccer game you know how like when you're picking players there's like all the attributes and you know like if you like see you know I don't know um like some some players that end up like Messi is extremely spiky like on dribbling for example like he has a huge spike on dribbling and you can apply that for life. I tend to think that entrepreneurs tend to be like very spiky in one dimension and then a lot of the other dimensions tend to be like pretty weak. Uh my brother somehow ended up being much more balanced. So he's like a more balanced life. Like he's actually like a very successful person with much more balance, much more structure, etc. I'm very very spiky.
What are you spiky at?
I think resilience. Like just this sheer stubborn resilience. like I you know I like really will bang my head against the problem for like over and over and over and over you know completely locked in uh no matter what like you know I can like you know not eat for days I can like I you know I I get really really like focused on something uh and you know that's a hard life to live because and I go from one to the other right I I like I there's a problem okay if I solve it or you know like that chapter is closed I go immediately to the next one um and I over time it's actually kind of it's a pretty positive trade for a founder Because you know you're in my my view that one of the key roles of a founder in a company is you have to find the hole in the boat like you're on a boat in a in a ship and there's it's a sinking ship at all point of time no matter who you are. It could be a seedstage company all the way to um Apple there is one really gnarly really big problem in your company and that problem needs to be the founder. The founder needs to consistently seek the hole in the boat that's sinking the ship and figure out how to resolve it. and then you resolve that one then there's gonna be another one and you have to go to the next one and that thing should not be delegated and so I think that has helped that like sort of extreme level focus helps
You said entrepreneurship is your therapy
Why
I don't know if I said that but I I think I you know
You said that definitely I'm definitely one of these entrepreneurs who is kind of broken inside but use entrepreneurship as therapy
Yeah I think I think like um I don't know honestly like when I'm not um battling with something like when I'm not you know in the midst of like you know um I I think of building a company like it's a little bit like the ship analogy I just it's like a bit like war you're always like taking on battles and like you you want to like consistently sort of like um um you know see greater and greater seas and like all of that and and I think like um whenever when I'm not in that mode where like I'm I'm under tension like I'm I'm under sort of like working through something and battling and going on. I kind of get a little like I get depressed and I don't know like I I you know and part of it is like I I don't really have um I just immediately lose purpose like I I want to be working towards something and I you know and I honestly find myself in many ways really lucky because you know one of the things that have gotten us through and you know Kashi has a lot of anti patterns. We we've gone through like years and years like four or five years of absolutely like no one cared about the company. It was completely dark and and the things that got us through this is like uh and it's true for both one and I like if we were to pick a problem to work on in a vacuum it would be something it would be something in financial markets is something where we're building and I like to believe that we're building the next generation of financial markets. So like you know we've kind of found our thing like we found I think our life's work um and and I think uh whenever I'm not working on that I I just sort of kind of like lose purpose.
I had a conversation with Michael Sailor a couple of weeks ago on this podcast and you share at least two things. Well, more but at least two things. The first one is a mother who was saying you you're going to do great things. You're going to do great things.
Yeah, he said that.
The other thing is you both studied at MIT
and he actually said that building micro strategy for the first 10 years, going public, growing that into a multi-billion dollar company was not hard. He said MIT was hard. MIT was really hard.
Does that resonate with your MIT and Kali experiences?
Um I don't know. I don't know if I fully agree. I mean like I actually think okay I have a someone have a separate view and I can address MIT as well but I think uh building a high growth VCbacked sort of completely out in the open tech company is one of the hardest sort of endeavors. Mhm. I really do. And and because there's like you're putting ourselves you're putting yourself out there and you know um Jensen talks about a lot about this and I I think this he he kind of said it best. I I couldn't put words on it until he said it but like for a long period of time and even even till now like it it it never ends. You have this feeling of shame because people are always sort of like people are always looking at you and you're failing and a bunch of different things and like you kind of go from failure to failure and like you know the beginning of the product is not working and no one cares and you know why should anyone care about this problem and like this like weird set of guys are working on this weird thing that no one cares about and you're kind of this weird guy you know you're walking around the room and people are like oh how is how is your like how's your thing going you know you know what I mean and like it's like and you're like at it for four years like why are you calling it a thing And and and that's a little bit how it feels, right? It's not like, you know, if you're like in a in a large company, you have a really serious job. It's like how is your, you know, how is how's your career going? You're progressing, you're moving. And here you've been like 3 years doing this thing that has absolutely not moved. Like you nothing's changed. You don't know if it's working. Maybe it worked for a little bit, but then it's not working again. And so there's this feeling of like you're constantly addressing this feeling of like um shame and I didn't do enough and like this is not work, you know? So that feeling is very hard and even when the company is working like you know we're lucky in many ways but like Kashi is really working right now and like it's become a big brand and like um um it's always as if it's putting like a spotlight on your on your weak spots as a founder. The places that you're not doing really well at right now. And those are place that people you know immediately notice and become very visible in the company. and you have to constantly like you're putting yourself right in the spotlight allowing people to kind of open up your vulnerabilities at any point in time. That's hard. That's really hard. And so so there is that I think um and I don't mean by the way to say this and like I would do it any given day start a company like I think it's one of the you know there's all the upsides that come the other way which is like it's totally worth it like the small peaks of when it works or when like the product people are using it and they love it and like when you walk around the place and like people are using your app or using your product and they absolutely love it like that makes it the whole thing worth it and I would do it 10 times out of 10 times again if I you know if I could rewind the clock Um I think MIT was just like you know if if you it's just like intellectually challenging problems. It's like a lot more you know you know oh this like not building rockets well at MIT you know you you're doing solving problems that are you know building rockets and that was hard in a very different way but I think it was less psychologically hard and I think the psychological difficulty is I think the the in my view I think a much harsher form of difficulty.
Yeah. You woke up and went to work every day for four or five years before Kali took off. Four or five years. That's
six years really. I mean 2018 we started and then end of 2018 and really it took off at the end of 2024. So six years.
So that's about 2,000 days of waking up every day and going
tough. It was very tough.
Is this is this madness? Is this irrational self-belief? Is this denial? What is that?
I think it's all of them, right? I I I really I mean I think it's it really I mean look I think you have to have a really strong belief in the self and and I I think in my case I think Lana has it stronger than I do like I doubt a lot and I question etc. But in my case you know again like I'm lucky that people around me like my mom even in the like darkest times where I really lost believe in myself. I'm like I I don't know what I'm doing and like I'm bad at this and I don't know like you always have doubt a lot of times I think founders don't talk about this enough but like there's a lot of myth created around founders but like I honestly believe that like you know most founders they just get it's like you're working out you don't have some special muscles like you're just working out for long enough that at some point you you get better at like the reps and you get better at dealing with like difficulties but like we're all kind of sort of figuring it out as we go and you have self-doubt like you know uh I might not be good at this and like all that but my mom has an extremely high belief in me so give it a little bit longer right you came so long give it a little bit longer so there's like a lot of a lot of self-belief or belief from people around me even some of our early investors
So you would call your mom often
yeah I call my mom all the time yeah a very close relationship with my mom and especially in really hard things would happen and like really disappointing ones where like a big negative inflection happened in the company or for example when we were trying to do election market like we had spent a year and then it got denied and another year and then it got denied. Like the denials were so hard like you know I wouldn't sleep for weeks after that and I would call and be like you know maybe I should change like maybe we're on the wrong like really what are we doing and should be like give it a little bit longer. The second thing is I think that's another thing uh being naive like you know
absolutely first- time founder helps a lot right
helps a lot for these like really big potential outcomes like these category defining new market all all these types of companies
like I think if you're a second or third founder you' be much more effective at like having high odds of success for a decently sized outcome but being a first founder is lower odds success for a potentially massive massive uh size outcome So you think that you might have given up earlier if you are not a first- time founder for this type I don't know about me specifically but I I do think like the pattern I do believe for this type of company that is so like asymmetric I think I think I put cash in that bucket I put Airbnb in that bucket I put um you know and I don't think we're anywhere near that level but like you know Tesla in that like those types companies that like when they first start it just seems so impossible and so so many issues and like but you know it's like if it works it'll be very big but like the road to get there just seems so like impossible and unclear and how um I think being a first time founder is a huge superpower because it's like you don't know how how much how long you know how when you climb a mountain they tell you not to look at the peak because if you look at it you get tired you're like how am I going to make it like yeah when you're first time founders you don't up. There's like step after step. And then the other thing, you know, you mentioned madness and like self-belief and like um uh um all of that. Like the other thing is like there's a little bit of sunk cost fallacy. Like you spent four years on this, you're going to stop now. Like give it another six months and another six months, right? like and and that's worked surprisingly well like you know and but I do think maybe my biggest thing is like it's so important like at the end of the day there was all these different things but the key thing is we wanted this to exist because if it was about like just being successful or like other things we would have pivoted much earlier right like AI was think I mean there's so many crypto like we we we would have pivoted earlier but we just wanted this thing to exist we really wanted to deliver this thing and that helps a lot because that could be a forcing function for you to stay in one lane and sometimes big things require you to be in that lane for a very very long period of time.
Has there been sometimes we're thinking actually it's finally happening but then it didn't
so many times. Yeah. Because you also really want to believe it, right? Like you really want to finally believe. you start like seeing like you start you know it's like you start like um uh you start like seeing things you know that like you start like seeing product market fit or like seeing things that just are not there you know uh
I mean with the election when we're trying to list the election every time we were so like we were convinced ourselves it's finally going to happen and now they're gonna do it and and and they you know they're definitely gonna approve it and then they would just like not approve it and like be so close oh yes you know uh and And I think we've seen a lot of it with um we're trying a bunch of categories. We would see a little bit of an uptick on one week and we're like, "Okay, this is it. Let's go." And then the next week would come and fall flat. Like it would just like unwind the the prior week completely. Um and we've seen that a few times. Um uh so there was a lot of a lot of these moments. I would I would even say like the I mean in 2020 so after we got b like we didn't we weren't allowed to do elections at the end of 22 at the beginning of 23 we started to do the election again but then we tried like a bunch of different products like we tried for example like a weather product like focus really on the weather markets and those started growing um and we thought okay finally we find something like this is it like this is this is going to be the thing and then it's like basically tanked back and like we convinced oursel for three months like oh like go all in on this like it's going to work and um it just like flattened out right after and like went back to zero. Um but when you desperately want something to work sometimes you start seeing you know success where it doesn't really exist. Yeah, that's tough.
How do you become numb to all of that? And did you even
I don't think you do like numb. I think you you you don't like that phase where things are not working is very hard psychologic it really is psychologic like because think about it this way if you're onto a real like potentially potentially like sizable market with a real problem which I think is most like most entrepreneurs and you give yourself like infinite time to make it happen. It will happen at some point. The problem is the second one.
Like most people just like the biggest risk of any company is founders giving up. That's really the
that's what kills companies. It's nothing else. It's and and I think the reality is like that phase is so hard. It really is very very difficult. And I think um I I don't think necessarily everyone needs to or should go through that like it may not be worth it for a lot of people. I think it's Steve Jobs who said that says I'm convinced that what separates the entrepreneurs who are successful from the ones who are not is mostly not giving up.
I I totally agree with that.
Like I think that's the single most defining characteristic.
Um and people put a lot of things on like great strategy and and and and great like um you know great foresight or like vision and they like to create these myth and I think all these things exist but you can also train yourself to have all of that. I think not giving up is by far the biggest thing by far.
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You said focus on the input, not the results.
but this must have been extremely hard as you said. How do you how do you keep thinking like that? Focus on the inputs, not the result when for four, five, six years things are not happening.
It's very hard. I mean like and I don't have like really good secret sauce like it's because you know it's a bit like walking in a desert and you're like liking to believe that oh it's going to be like an oasis at the end or like at the end of it but like you keep walking and there's no end at some point you start being like maybe I'm crazy like there is no end like what are we doing? Um but to us like again we really wanted this to exist. So there's that drive. We really wanted to make it past the desert. We really did not and and that was really important. Um, so I go back to like if for people that want asymmetric outcomes, they have to care about the the thing that they're building. They really have to care. And I love markets. I really like and we talked a little about the certainty of mathematics. Like the thing I love most about what we're building is this idea of like taking things from a subjective emotional like polarized to objectivity to math to markets. People things are being priced. They move up and down over time. And then the second thing I think is like um the first principles were there like we would read the law and like hey this should be legal like I I I I haven't been disproven. I did not see the definitive proof for why they shouldn't be legal or why they shouldn't work, right? Like if the stock market is so big and all these other markets so big, like we're creating a version of the stock market, the options market, where it's about things that people care about and and it and and and there's already enough empirical evidence that the prediction markets are going to predict things better than other places. So like in some ways we're like maybe the thing that we would need to see is proof that this wasn't going to work for us to stop like definitive proof. Uh and if we didn't see that then like you know we we keep going. Um and and and and maybe that's what it takes sometimes you know.
Tell me about the day or probably time where this love for probability uncertainty gave birth to Kali and prediction markets. I think it's um when we spent a lot of time in finance, we saw that like we saw the problem firsthand which like a lot of people were getting exposure to events in an indirect way via proxies like I want I want to I want to buy like um Trump winning the election. I would like I'm going to do it via like um a basket of stocks or shorting of the S&P or other things. Um and over the course of few years the like the more like 2016 2018 the more we read about the market the more I spent time at Citadel as well the more like I got really into the idea of like the at the time it's like information markets the idea that like you can apply the free market concept to pricing the probability of an event and I I love that concept I really like that concept right because you know um having a good like prior like having like often times the hard part when you're building a model of the world is the priors. Do you have the right sort of probability of different things happening or like you have the right distribution of a certain outcome and there was a lot of proof that like you know both empirical but also theoretical that the best way to price an event to like predict the probability of something is a market. really the the best way to price anything is a market, right? Like the um because a market is, you know, aggregates like seeks out the crowd wisdom in an effective way. Uh and there's skin in the game. People are putting money where their mouth is. So that that that forces self-calibration like it forces an incentive structure where like a clear objective function where you get rewarded for being right and you get punished for being wrong, right? It's a very clean objective function and I mean I I just find the concept so elegant, right? Right? Like instead of like settling something via debate like I think you're wrong, I think I'm right. And you know, you see Twitter, people are like throwing stuff at each other and you don't know what's a fact, you don't know what's a real, you know, put a market. The market will filter it, right? Like if if people are like saying things that may not be totally factual now, you ask them to put money, they're they're going to be much more careful about like the non-facts that they're using, right? Because otherwise they'll lose money and everybody hates losing money. And I find that beautiful, right? You're taking this this complete mess of subjective emotion and debate to the plane the clean plane of mathematics where like now there's a price that summarized the entirety of like people's opinions about something and it tends to work. Um it felt like we had to build that. It was you know it was essentially it felt too big of an idea and and and we were we loved it too much that we had to build it basically.
What's the true innovation with predition markets?
So you know um there's many ways to answer that question. Um uh but there's a couchy piece of it but then there's a prediction market piece of it which are not exactly the same. the the true innovation and prediction markets I think is um the this notion like and and I think it has been built through a lot of literature and then I think the prediction markets have come in our generation like Ky and some of the others have proven it is um that like information relevant information about a certain uh question doesn't lie in the tradition traditional like authority figures or institutions as you would expect it actually is very dis distributed amongst the crowd and you need to seek it out from the crowd somehow right and you're seeing like there's a Fed paper two month ago that I don't know if you saw that it's called cashing the rise of macro markets that showed that the cashy forecast on the econ economic all the economic indicators like jobs and g uh uh GDP and inflation and fed interest rates are more accurate than any other alternatives um and you're seeing that for a lot of other places like you know the pion outperform the polls they outperform a lot like on a if you take enough of a sample size you create the mean error prediction markets are the best at forecasting the future and I think that the key innovation is that the best way to answer like all these most pressing questions that you have to ask the crowd and you have to incentivize the crowd to bring it and you don't really know who has a relevant piece of information um and the best you know the one ways to describe that Ted clock in 2015 he had this groundbreaking book about super forecasting and you know he picked the sort of geopolitical experts like super like big names, experts in geopolics have been studying it for decades against a group of like um just kind of like intellectually curious people that read the news but like random people and had them predict political events and the second group outperformed dramatically, right? That I think is the the crux of the innovation, right? Um and I think that power but then like it makes you think like okay if you want to
To answer all these different questions, you have to have a market to do it. It will outperform any of the elites or any of the sort of like institutions.
Expanding on that, how do prediction markets revolutionize the media industry?
