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Tarek Mansour
Co-founder & CEO, Kalshi

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on Insider Trading, Manipulation & Market Transparency

📅 Nov 05, 2026 The Economic Club of New York 9 MIN 1 VIEWS 20 SEGMENTS · 2 SPEAKERS
How does a prediction market guard against insider trading and manipulation? Tarek Mansour, Co-Founder and CEO of Kalshi, joins Catherine Rampell, Economics Editor at The Bulwark, to walk through how the exchange approaches moral hazard and insider trading. He covers customer verification, screening against lists of politically exposed persons, a data-sharing partnership with the NBA, and post-trade surveillance. Rampell presses him on research suggesting that relatively small bets can move thinly traded midterm markets. Mansour responds with an example of a large trade that was quickly reve...

What Tarek Mansour said

Written from the verified transcript and checked against it. Every figure links to the moment it was said.

Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, discussed how his platform detects and prevents insider trading and moral hazards in prediction markets. He noted that regulations ban markets involving violence, war, terrorism, and assassinations, and that Kalshi has never listed such markets, unlike offshore competitors like Polymarket. Mansour strongly opposed insider trading, arguing it undermines market fairness and participation. He detailed Kalshi's customer verification, use of bank-grade vendors, and partnerships like with the NBA to identify and ban insiders. He emphasized the transparency of prediction markets, where all trading activity is public, and cited an example of a $1.5 million bet on the LA mayor race that moved the price briefly but was corrected by traders. He dismissed a Bloomberg study claiming $100,000 could move 99% of midterm markets as false, and argued that markets are more transparent and reliable than polls.

Key takeaways

  1. Kalshi bans insider trading and has built systems to detect it, unlike some competitors who initially argued for allowing it.
  2. A $1.5 million bet on the LA mayor race moved the price from 25% to 40% but lasted only 9 seconds before traders corrected it.
  3. Mansour called a Bloomberg study claiming $100,000 could move 99% of midterm markets 'not true' and challenged researchers to bet on it.
  4. Kalshi's partnership with the NBA shares insider data to ban league insiders from trading.

Numbers and commitments

FigureWhat it refers toTypeAt
$1.5 million Amount bet on LA mayor race to manipulate Spencer Pratt's odds metric 6:41
25% to 40% Price movement of LA mayor race bet metric 6:41
9 seconds Duration price stayed at 40% before correction metric 6:41
$100,000 Amount claimed to move 99% of midterm markets other 5:35

Chapters

  1. 0:00Moral hazard and offshore markets
  2. 1:56Insider trading debate
  3. 2:52Customer verification and bans
  4. 3:44Post-trade enforcement
  5. 4:22Transparency of prediction markets
  6. 6:06Rebuttal of Bloomberg study
  7. 6:41LA mayor race manipulation example
  8. 8:36Markets vs polls transparency

Questions asked in this interview

2
  1. 0:00How do you go about detecting insider trading?
  2. 0:21So, can you talk a little bit about how you try to prevent it or how you detect it?
Interviewer 0:00 ↗
How do you go about detecting insider trading? Because I imagine that in the George Santos case, maybe it was relatively easy if he was doing it under his own name. But maybe somebody has a cousin, maybe the cousin of the teleprompter guy. It seems very difficult, unlike in some of these other competitions that you were talking about with sports and things like that.
For politics and yeah. Well, for politics or any of these other markets where it really would be an unfair playing field. If there is somebody who has insider information at the heart of what the bet is, or even worse, you might have some moral hazard problems, right? Where they can effectuate the outcome that they are betting on. They can set the wildfire or what have you. So, can you talk a little bit about how you try to prevent it or how you detect it? Insider trading exposed.
Tarek Mansour 0:50 ↗
Yeah, I mean a few things. Let me address the moral hazard because I think it's a bit easier and then I'll get to insider trading. So, there's a bunch of regs that essentially prevent moral hazards like violence, war, terrorism, assassinations, etc. Like those have never been listed, including wildfires. We've never listed wildfires. Those have been listed offshore, on prediction markets that are unregulated that run offshore. And that's one of the challenges that we've had.
And I always say this, and I say this pretty publicly at this point: I like competition. I love competing with Robinhood and Coinbase. Now Goldman is entering the space. There's so many. Competition is good. An industry doesn't really become an industry without competition. The things that I've always struggled with a little bit with one of our big competitors, Polymarket, is I think we have principled differences. I think they went offshore, did unregulated, and then the results show like they listed some of these missile strike markets, etc. They have really infuriated people for good reason. They infuriate me, too. They're bad markets that shouldn't exist because they present moral hazards. So, really the line there is like, you know, there are regs that ban them, and we shouldn't allow any operators to do these types of things. And if there are certain markets that are on the line, my view is we should be conservative and not let them happen.
Now, insider trading is a more interesting issue, and I always go back to initially at the beginning of the year when the first insider trading case, which is the famous Maduro trade, happened. You know, there was a bit of a debate in the industry. Like, we came out very strongly saying, 'We spent the first four years building systems to ban insider trading, and we're very against insider trading.' And some of the industry players who've now come around initially were saying, 'Well, actually no, we should let insider trading happen because it makes market prices more efficient. Like, if you let insiders trade on the information that they have, it should in theory make the market prices more efficient.' And I mean, it's a completely moronic take, basically, because like, you know, there's sure theoretically that would happen. But what would happen if you let corruption go rampant in a supposedly free and fair competition? People stop believing it's fair. And what happens if people stop believing it's fair? They stop participating. The thing breaks. People stop using it. And that's why it's banned in the stock market, it's banned in traditional markets, it's banned in prediction markets.
There's a few layers. I mean, one is we verify all customers. So, when you onboard to Kalshi, we take your name, social security number. Two is we send it to a bunch of vendors that usually the banks use. So, after the Bank Secrecy Act was enacted, banks have a duty, the same way as a regulated exchange like us, we have a duty to figure out who we're transacting for, who we're moving money for, so who the customers are. And then you can cross-validate against a bunch of lists. So, FEC reports, politically exposed people, their families, their close families. And there's all sorts of lists now also with sports leagues. We just announced a partnership with the NBA. The core tenet of that partnership is they share data with us about who may be an insider in the league, so we can ban them from trading. And then we ban all of these people from trading on things that they might have insider information or influence over. That ban is actually a self-regulation. That's not currently law. We're pushing for this to be law. I'm strongly advocating for this to become law.
But what's law is also after the trade, like post the fact, which we had discussed last time. After a trade happens, the thing that's interesting with fraud is like there's always something suspicious. Like, somebody, you know, all of a sudden is buying in larger size, something that's an asymmetric long shot, or other things. And then that goes to our investigation team that can impose fines all the way to criminal prosecution. And the way to really combat crime or bad actors is you catch them. And when you catch them, you have to enforce heavy consequences. And that's like true for any financial crime or any crime really on the street. And so the next person that considers doing it is going to reconsider it because of how bad it would be for them to get caught.
Now, here's the thing I will say about prediction markets. I'm sure a lot of you have seen, especially the young people in the room, you know the meme about the plane from World War II around survivorship bias, where like, you know, the plane was shot certain places and we make the completely wrong conclusion about where we should shoot the plane or not shoot the plane. Like I think it's a bit what's happening in prediction markets. The thing is prediction markets are incredibly transparent. All the trading activity is public. You see it. Everybody sees it. You can go to kalshi.com right now, click on, you know, Texas Senate race or any race or whatever you want to click on, and you see all the trading activity publicly available as a log for anyone. Which is not really true for traditional markets. You cannot easily — reporters and press and the general public and our customers cannot see it so publicly.
And so it's interesting because there's way more trading happening in the stock market. We're just catching way less of it. Whereas in prediction markets, we're just actually catching much more of it because it's so blatant. It's right there for everybody to see. When somebody, you know, is moving the price from 10% to 25%, well, everybody, you know, starts freaking out about what happened. And that's a good thing because then we can go and police it. And I think that's a bit of that dynamic happening. But over time society will adapt. I mean, the candidates now know it's like, well, if I'm going to do something on my campaign and I get caught, it's pretty much going to ruin my campaign. So, I'm not going to do it.
Interviewer 5:35 ↗
Well, I was going to ask you about a study actually from Bloomberg that looked at how much it takes to move one of these prediction markets in a midterms race, because these are generally relatively thinly traded races. So, Bellwether, an online tool built by a Stanford School of Business research lab, monitors how much money it would take to meaningfully move political markets on prediction market platforms. A single bet of less than $100,000 could move 99% of the 15,000 US midterm election markets.
Tarek Mansour 6:06 ↗
How much?

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Cite this transcript

APA, MLA, BibTeX
APA

Mansour, T. (2026, November 5). Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on Insider Trading, Manipulation & Market Transparency [Interview transcript]. The Economic Club of New York. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3201062/

MLA

Tarek Mansour. "Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on Insider Trading, Manipulation & Market Transparency." The Economic Club of New York, 5 Nov. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3201062/.

BibTeX
@misc{mansour2026_3201062,
  author       = {Tarek Mansour},
  title        = {Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on Insider Trading, Manipulation \& Market Transparency},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, The Economic Club of New York. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {nov},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3201062/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}