First of all, thank you very much, Mr. Bremmer, for this interview, because we are very happy to have this conversation at the end of a very important presidential campaign in Brazil. So it is very important to see how people like you are observing it and what analysis you make of this election, which is very important not only for Brazil but for many countries and for the Trump administration in the United States, which has a very close relationship with one of the candidates or his family, the Bolsonaro family. And the actions and the very aggressive offensive that the Trump administration has launched against Lula's government in Brazil since last year. What do you think about that and about Trump's silence in recent weeks? Why is the American president silent in this final phase of the Brazilian campaign, and what do you think is the real importance of this election's outcome for Trump and his administration?
Well, these are three different questions. You know, if you'd like, I'll take them one by one. Trump antagonized many leaders of countries around the world, including some of his closest friends, like the Canadians, the Europeans — it's not just Brazil. But it is certainly true that, as part of the Liberation Day tariffs, Brazil was hit pretty hard. And the disposition to keep pressuring Brazil has been quite high. You know, the presidents don't agree on many issues. President Trump is, of course, much closer to Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest and, you know, tried to usurp a democratically elected transition in his own favor, as opposed to the effectively elected candidate, Lula. So Trump doesn't like that. And Eduardo Bolsonaro spent a lot of time in Florida and Washington engaging with the White House, with the Trump administration, successfully in support of his father and also his brother for the presidency.
So it's not surprising, given all of that, that Trump would put his weight behind the right-wing candidate here. You also have many right-wing candidates who have won many consecutive elections all across Latin America, focusing on security, focusing on fiscal responsibility. And Trump likes all of them, or at least acts as if he does. We saw that in Colombia, we saw it in Peru, we saw it in Chile, and of course in Argentina. And that's why Latin America is the only part of the world where it seems politics is moving in Trump's direction, and he would love for Brazil, the largest economy, to complete that this weekend. Now, you're right — he hasn't said anything in recent weeks, and that's because I think the Bolsonaros correctly determined that direct support from Trump would probably only help the incumbent president. And in fact, if they had a worse challenge on the commercial side with the Americans, that ordinary Brazilians would blame Trump and Bolsonaro. So it's better to let Lula have, you know, his phone calls, his little meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations, even though it was short, to engage a bit more steadily and keep Trump out of the election. We've already seen in Canada, in Australia, in Hungary — there have been several elections in democracies where Trump's involvement actually turned the election against his favored candidate. And so I think it was sensible of the Bolsonaros to suggest that Trump stay out. And I think it was sensible that Trump follow that advice and the advice of his own White House advisers, not to be seen participating. Of course, on social media, many right-wing influencers from the United States made their presence felt. There was a lot of algorithmic support coming from outside Brazil for Bolsonaro, but those are baseline bets in practically every election, and there's no direct connection between that and Trump personally. And so I don't think that's something that benefits Lula in itself.
But we are seeing a change, right? Because last year, when that offensive against Lula began, he went very far — he even called for the release of former president Lula, who, as you said, is convicted and in prison. And in the last month, or the last year, he has shifted a bit. So, about that influence you mentioned — Eduardo Bolsonaro's meetings in Washington, the family's influence in Washington.
Well, I mean, you saw the Magnitsky sanctions that were imposed against Supreme Court justices and against senior officials in Lula's administration. I think Eduardo certainly had some influence on the White House's thinking about that issue. And I think in the early days that was probably true, in ramping up the clamor for a tougher tariff posture toward Brazil. But again, I wouldn't want you to think that this is something exclusive to Brazilian influence in the United States. I mean, most of these conservative moves have direct connections to the president's office, to people in Trump's family, to MAGA and the movement, and those things are relevant. And it's relevant if you're talking about South Africa and Trump's immigration policy, which has actually undermined that relationship far more than what we've seen with Brazil. This is a new way of thinking about how the U.S. decides to intercede and intervene in the political behavior of other countries around the world.
Historically, I remember when President Obama suggested that Brexit might not be such a good idea, and that created an enormous storm in the United States, because it was the president of America interfering? Although it's obvious that the U.S. wants a stronger Europe and wants the United Kingdom in it, if he's telling the British directly how to vote, is that appropriate? And I mean, now this happens daily — sometimes publicly, sometimes privately — with much more direct interference, intervention, and attack, right? We can recall the attack on Venezuela. I was very impressed; well, we know Trump, but seeing that happen was... really a shock. And after that, everything is possible, right?
Well, no. So yes, Iran is not possible because, despite the killing of 45 of the top leaders, including the Supreme Leader, there still was no regime change. So in fact, you're right — Trump perhaps believed that after his success in Venezuela everything was possible, and he found out very quickly that that was not the case. Venezuela was in fact the high point of the influence of Trump's foreign policy globally, and since then he has been much more restrained.
Yes. What I meant is that we can expect anything from Trump — that doesn't mean he will be successful, right? History is there to show us that he fails a lot. Going back to Brazil, there is a lot of speculation about: if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the election, what will Trump's influence in Brazil be, Trump's interference in the next government? What do you think about that? People are thinking about Marines in Brazil, military operations, and something like what happened with Argentina. You in Argentina have a very close relationship. We don't see Marines, of course, in Argentina, but we see the White House interfering a lot at times — one might think Argentina is a U.S. colony. Actually, what do you think will happen in Brazil if Bolsonaro wins the presidency?
I think Brazil has a much stronger political system. Venezuela is, in a way, seen as a colony of the United States. And again, Trump said at the United Nations that to the victors belong the spoils. He meant he was talking about Venezuela — the Americans won. So he believes the U.S. should decide what happens there. It's not clear whether a future U.S. president will feel the same, and Trump only has two more years. So that's also a question. I mean, Brazil will be around a lot longer than Trump, so we need to recognize the implications of that. But when I think of Bolsonaro as president — and now, of course, it seems more likely that he will actually be the next president — I certainly believe he will bring Brazil into the "Shield of the Americas" program, which Lula did not join. And that means more overt cooperation and coordination to fight drug gangs and to declare some of those gangs as terrorist organizations, to work with the United States on intelligence, to work with the United States even on joint military training and operations. I think we could see some of that in Brazil, and it wouldn't surprise me if some of it were quite popular, given the concern within Brazil about security and about instability, including the instability and insecurity that come from outside Brazil's borders. I also see, I think, a Brazil more willing to work closely with the United States on critical minerals investment, as opposed to a more state-driven approach trying to keep most or more of that in public hands. That's a plus with the United States. You'll also see — I mean, Lula has been very successful in reducing deforestation. It's hard to imagine that trend will continue under Bolsonaro. That is certainly a long-term negative for Brazil, its economy, and its positioning in the world. I hope relations with China don't change as much as was true under his father, partly because, you know, China is Brazil's largest trading partner, despite the different political orientations of the leaders, and they need that money, and they need to buy those cheap goods and commodities, and they need to sell those commodities, and I think that will certainly continue. Beyond that, I would say perhaps the most important change is that you will have a Congress that will be quite conservative. And that means much of the domestic legislation, particularly on the economic side, that Bolsonaro would like to pass — including a more restrained fiscal environment — I think that is something he will be able to do. And the markets have reacted positively based on that expectation. This is not Jair Bolsonaro, who was a military man and suspicious of political actors in the business community. I think Flávio is much more a political animal who will work very closely with the business community. And therefore clearly many differences not only from Lula but also many differences from his father.
Right. So Flávio has talked about reforming the constitution. What do you think of the threat that this eventual government poses to Brazilian democracy? And what do you think of the accusations or claims that Lula is making in these final days of the campaign?
