Yang Was RIGHT About 2025—You Won’t Believe What’s Coming in 2026!

This week on the Andrew Yang podcast. So, a number of months ago, Evelyn got me a present that really hurt my feelings. It was a package of personal training appointments, and I was like, "Oh, I should take a hint. I guess my wife is, uh, my wife's trying to say something." Um, so, so...

And we are back for the first episode of 2026. New year, new me, new year, new Yang.

So 2026, um, on the fun announcement side, most of you guys know this, but I have a book coming out in about a month. Uh, the pub date has officially been moved back to February 10th, but we have events even before then. Um, with the book, there's a book tour. I'm going to New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Washington DC, Seattle, Los Angeles, San Francisco, maybe other places on some stops. Um, I'm joined by Rainn Wilson. I'm joined by, uh, Nancy Pelosi in DC. I'm joined by all sorts of fun people. Cool.

So, there is a book tour afoot at andrewyang.com/events. Uh, and they are free. Uh, and um, I, you know, I was gonna think I was like, maybe there's one event where it might cost you $5, whatever, but it's like they're essentially free. Um, so I mean, they really are. Like I'm fairly sure that either all of them are free or nearly all of them are free. Okay. Um, so just check them out at andrewyang.com/events and hopefully I'll see you out there. Uh, the book is humorous. It's personal. Uh, you know, I mean, we've talked about it at some length, but that's February 10th, and then the tour goes through much of February.

Yeah. So, this is, um, the fourth book I have written every word of. Um, there was that novel that you and I storyboarded. Um, but we both are very, very...

Yeah. Yeah. He wrote, um, I did edit, but this one I wrote every word of. Um, the four books I've written every word of are Smart People Should Build Things, about how smart people should build things; War on Normal People, about how there's a war on normal people — that was about automation, UBI, that's a book you all know; Forward, which you all ignored — no, I'm kidding — Forward, about how the two-party system is going to deteriorate; and then Hey Yang, Where's My Thousand Bucks? Alternate title: Hey, Am I Racist or Are You Andrew Yang? Uh, about all that has been going inside my home and noggin, um, over the last, uh, years of my rise and then fall and then rise again, or something like that.

You know, that was actually one of the original questions that my publisher had, is like, hey, what do you want the format to be? Do you want a wax comedic? Like I could have, but I was like, you know what? I ended up doing the same thing in different places, and I was like, I'd rather have a conversation with someone who is of that city to make it a little bit, um, okay, you know, more distinctive. So, there'll be like some humor, but I'm not going to, you know, um, bust out and start doing crowd work or any of that jazz.

Oh, Yang's comedy tour.

huge comedians. Yeah. Which is not how people start their comedy career.

Uh, Noble Mobile, growing like a weed.

Yeah, it is. Um, go to noblemobile.com/yang if you want three free months, which is the best deal I'd say anywhere in the industry because, like, I love you guys and, um, Zach does too and we try. Um, so 2026 predictions. I've got them. I suppose that's why people have tuned into this particular episode. They're like, "What the heck is going to happen in this year?"

Sure. That's why I'm here. I don't know what they are.

We didn't discuss them. Yeah. Yeah. All right. So, number one, uh, January and maybe February, um, are going to be defined politically by what I have christened the healthcare debacle. So, uh, a little bit of background. Uh, Obamacare COVID-era subsidies are now, um, curtailed as of December 31, 2025. So, 20 million Americans are going to have their health insurance premium spike in January. In some cases, that spike is going to be very, very significant. Like, this is a real-life example: one person's, um, you know, like, expected to go from a $600 premium to a $2,200 premium, um, monthly. So, so then they look at that and, you know what? So, same, you know, like, uh, bean counters try to estimate how many of these people are just going to stop paying for health insurance because, you know, like, that person might not, like, accept that price increase. So their estimate is that 4 million of the 20 million are going to, uh, stop paying for health insurance. Um, and you know, it would be no exaggeration to say that this is going to cost lives because, I mean, some people are, like, you know, not getting treatment that they could really use.

Um, but people are going to be super duper pissed. And one of the things — so the drama behind this, Zach, has been really, really acute because, like, and I hate our political system so much because it's so obvious that, like, these are mistakes. So, the Democrats, if you remember the 43-day shutdown, they were like, you know why we're shutting it down? Because you guys are cutting off the health care, um, benefits. So, Republicans are like, uh, you know, [__] you, blah, blah, blah. And it ends and the Democrats get a concession that's not a concession. It's like, we're going to vote on healthcare. And by the way, that happened. And the healthcare vote, interestingly, Republicans are like, "Here's our plan." Gets 51 votes in the Senate. Um, and then Democrats are like, "Okay, here's our plan." And then it gets 51 votes in the Senate. Now, if you do the math, it's like, well, some senators had to vote twice. So, four Republican senators actually joined with the Democrats and were like, I will join you on this plan because, like, you know, my people are super mad about the fact that their, um, insurance premiums are going to spike, including both Alaska senators, Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan. And it's because that among all the 20 million Americans who are going to get hurt by this policy change, Alaska is actually, for whatever reason, number one. So, they're there and they're like, "Yo, people here are going to be super angry." So it goes to the House, uh, and then the Democrats are like, "Let's just extend the subsidies." Um, and the Republicans are like, you know, um, no. But then four moderate House Republicans joined the Democrats and said yes, because including Mike Lawler from, I think he's here in New York. No. Um, Brian Fitzpatrick, who I think is in Pennsylvania. So they're like — and these moderate Republicans sense that they're going to lose their seats. Okay.

Um, but millions of Americans are going to get sticker shock when it comes to health insurance. And then this is going to be one of the rare times in American life where they're not going to be like, "Oh, that sucks," and just, like, go back to what they were doing. They're going to be like, "There's going to be hell to pay." No, someone is [__] me and my family. Because health insurance is very, very core to a family. And if you have health insurance, you think, "Okay, I'm covered. I'm like middle class. I'm normal." And then if you're like, "Oh, I don't have health insurance," then it's like all of a sudden I'm precarious. Any injury, any illness...

Um, you know, I was being figurative there. Please don't kill anyone. But, like, people, you know, this day and age, it's like coming after your family. So, so four moderate Republicans in the House are like, yo, I'm going to break from my party leadership and just vote with the Dems on this. And so what they got was they got a vote to go to the House floor in January. It's called a discharge petition. They circumvented, um, Speaker Johnson. And so in January there's going to be a vote to extend subsidies in the House. All the Democrats obviously going to vote for it. Those four Republicans I think are going to vote for it, which means you get a majority in the House. And then it's going to go back to the Senate. And then the question is whether you get 60 senators who vote on this. But in this backdrop this entire time, millions of Americans are going to be like, you know, showing up, ringing the phone, being like, "What is happening? You got to undo this price increase." You know, that, like, that's going to be the — So, this is going to define politics in January. And by the way, both parties are right now trying to spin that it's the other party's fault.

On this one, objectively, I was like, and I have said this, it's like, look, who's going to own this? Obviously the Republicans because they control both houses. They control the White House. So, like, who are you going to blame? It's like those guys. And their argument on this one is like, "No, no, it's the Democrats' fault because they wrote Obamacare and Obamacare is stupid." Um, and then, no, that was back in 2010. Um, and so, um, so, you know, like, so they're trying to play the blame game right now. The Democrats can say, and this is like, you know, legitimate, like, look, we literally shut the government down for 43 days, like, on this. So, if anyone owns it, it's you guys. Like, we tried, you know, like, um, so, but this is going to be a fiasco and it's going to dominate politics and it's going to be real life. You're going to have stories about families forgoing care and, like, getting sick and, like, all these things, um, until it gets resolved, and then it gets resolved.

Have to redo it.

Um, but then there's going to be someone who's like, "Hey, I got run over. I was uninsured that month." Like, you know, they're going to — there's going to be some stuff. Um, it's trash. Like, I'm really, really angry about it. But so prediction number one is the healthcare debacle will dominate American politics and media in January and February until it gets resolved. But like you, this is going to be highly unusual in American life where ordinarily they can shaft people and then it's like, ah, like, haha, shrug. This time it's like, yeah, they're going to — like, people are going to show up at the offices, like, on the National Mall, etc., etc.

Yeah. They did it in the big beautiful bill. And then Democrats, in my opinion, have been trying to save them from themselves for months. Be like, "Hey guys, like, D." And then, by the way, the Republicans are like, "Yo, we're going to lose our jobs on this."

So, that's prediction number one. Health debacle defining American politics Q1 until it gets resolved. It might get resolved in January, but, you know...

Thank you, listeners. Please make sure to like and subscribe, and if you have any questions, send them to [email protected] and we'll do our best to answer them. Thank you.

Number two, um, the air starts coming out of the AI bubble.

So I think at this point, um, people have seen all of the think pieces on the roundtripping and, like, the hey, like, you know, you invested money in me so I can buy your chips and, like, all the stuff that's going on. Um, that there, like, there's a math problem here. It's a math problem in terms of how much money is being spent. There's a math problem in terms of how much revenue is being generated and how much people are willing to pay. I have friends who are using multiple, um, AI models, um, but they're not spending that much, you know, like, if you actually did the math as to what they would need to be paying in order for some of this investment to make sense, um, you know, they'd have to be spending like, uh, you know, seven times what they're spending, and, like, no one's going to do that, right? Um, they're also, real, in my opinion, like, um, the price competition, um, makes it so, let's say I'm like a normal person. Um, I've got a model. Oh [__], you, like, made it a hundred bucks a month. It's a lot for me. It's like, oh, there's this, um, other model that's like worse, but like free or near free. Um, and then I can take three of these, uh, free-ish models and then glue them together and then get to like 85% of what, like, the more expensive model is. Like, I'm probably just going to do that. Yeah. You know, like, so, like, that there's like a cap on what a lot of consumers are going to pay. Mhm.

Um, and, uh, like, in my experience, um, and you've seen this with, like, for example, the housing bubble before, like, the housing crash, um, like, you start seeing conventional wisdom shift. And I remember vividly, like, uh, at that time I was younger, was in my, you know, 30s, I was in the gym, and then some guy was like, yo, yo man, like, you know, bubble, right? Yeah, you know, we all know how this is going to end. Like, and I was like, if, like, if those guys know that, then, like, what is up? Like, I think AI right now is getting, like, the gym experience where the dudes in the gym are, like, talking about whether it's a bubble. Yeah. And that to me is a precursor to, uh, price correction. So I think that the, um, AI trade, which has defined the stock market, um, for months and months, um, uh, starts to, uh, fade and reverse itself.

By the way, Google has a massive structural advantage because they got all the data in the universe, you know, and it's incredible.

I think this is my point as to why this industry is going to be, like, very hard-pressed to generate the financial returns. They're going to be, I think they're going to become sort of replaceable. Um, yeah, like, you know, by the way, there are a lot of people who swore by ChatGPT until they got lapped, uh, by Google, and then they switched and they were like, oh, I guess...

Like, the psychic cost of switching carriers, the barrier is high.

Like, the actual cost is like...

Yeah, right, it's super easy. But man, um, you know, going from Grok to, um, Anthropic or one of these things, just in typing a new website. Yes, it's...

One of the reasons why this is such a bad bet. And tech, by the way, and this — you remember on the debate stage I was like, you know, like, people aren't using Bing to find stuff, you know, like, you have these winner-take-all marketplaces, but AI will not be that, um, in the same way because, again, like, you know, my friends who are high-stakes on this license multiple models and then just be like, this for this, this for this, this for that, and then, you know, cherry-pick and then, like, voila. And then if one of them tried to jack up the prices, they'd be like, "Well, yeah, I can just replace it with another one or like D." So, so for them to try and get all the money back is going to be murderously difficult, in my opinion. Um, so, like, the winner-take-all aspect. By the way, you know who's, like, lying in wait on all this stuff? China and DeepSeek. It's like, hey, you know, like, you want a free one? Like, we're kind of hanging out. Um, so the air is going to come out of the AI bubble in '26, in my opinion. Um, uh, related prediction number three, uh, the AI backlash begins politically.

It's a core, core campaign issue, core political issue in 2026. Both Bernie Sanders and Ron DeSantis have come out against data centers in this last, like, weeks. And so if you think about that bookend, um, you know, it's like pretty, uh, um, pretty vast terrain between the two of them. And so I think this is going to be an increasingly populist and popular issue. Um, here's the math again. It's like, okay, you're going to build a data center in my community. That means my electric bills are going to be more expensive. Maybe even my water bills, maybe, like, because, you know, you need to cool your, like, uh, um, servers and all that stuff. Um, there are some parts of the United States that are, uh, you know, water-scarce. So that's not going to go over well. Um, but so it's like, so I'm going to pay more for power so you can build this data center that is going to fuel AI that's going to take my job. Like, why am I happy about this? Um, and then the counter would be, hey, you're going to, you know, get job creation out of this. And it's like, I'm working at the data center. Like, what's happening? Uh, or, like, oh, you're going to benefit from, you know, the stock price appreciation. That's like, I own, um, you know, I now own Nvidia stock or whatever is happening. Like, there are these people that, um, like, it's going to be a very tough argument. I mean, people instinctively don't love AI anyway. Um, and so if you say, "Hey, I'm going to bear the costs of you, um, siphoning the grid so you can, um, you know, speed up compute," uh, like, you know, voters are going to get super pissed about it. Um, so, like, the backlash to the, um, construction projects and the rest of it is going to pick up steam in a very, very significant way in '26.