Nate Silver joins Morning Joe to discuss the launch of his new Crooked Media podcast, ‘Still Counting.’ The show reunites the ‘538’ podcast crew, teaming Silver up with his former co-hosts, Clare Malone and Galen Druke. The team says their goal is to cut through the noise with fact-based reporting to help listeners better understand the political landscape ahead of this year’s midterm elections and beyond. Silver joins the Morning Joe panel –alongside Republican strategist Susan Del Percio—to discuss the latest data and predictions involving the 2026 midterms.
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What Nate Silver said
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Nate Silver, founder of Silver Bulletin and FiveThirtyEight, discussed his new podcast Still Counting with former colleagues Claire Malone and Galen Drukk under Crooked Media. He said the show aims to help audiences digest polls, prediction markets, and political narratives. Silver predicted a 'blue year' for the 2026 midterms, citing President Trump's approval rating around 38% and historical trends. He said simulations run daily (40,000) show a near 50-50 Senate, with Democrats needing four seats, while the House leans or is likely Democratic. He noted GOP redistricting advantages could matter in close races. Silver said Trump's early-term decisions like tariffs, Iran conflict, and endorsing Ken Paxton in Texas are baked in. He flagged Alaska's ranked-choice race with Mary Peltola as a key race, possibly followed by Ohio or Texas.
Key takeaways
2026 midterms likely 'a blue year' per history and current indicators, with House leaning Democratic.
Daily 40,000 simulations put Senate odds at roughly 50-50, with Democrats needing four seats.
Trump's approval rating is about 38%, with disapproval at 58-59%.
Alaska's ranked-choice race with Mary Peltola is the most interesting practitioner race.
Trump's early-term decisions, including tariff and Iran policies, are baked into forecasts.
As we approach November's midterm election, a new podcast featuring some familiar faces is helping listeners get up to speed. Still Counting reunites Nate Silver, Claire Malone and Galen Drukk, formerly of 538 fame, for a new show now under the umbrella of Crooked Media. The team says they aim to help listeners better understand the political landscape ahead of the midterms and beyond. And Nate Silver joins us now.
You never fully exited the fray, but you're back in a big way. So talk to us about why now seemed the right moment to get the band back together, if you will, and tell us a little more about the podcast.
Well, first of all, I'm great friends with Claire and Galen. So we're real-life friends. We hope the energy will come through on Still Counting. But also, yeah, there is more and more information that people find hard to digest, right? You have polls, you have prediction markets, you have a lot of overconfidence really about political narratives and things like that. So to have practitioners who have some experience, who were nonpartisan — we have very strong opinions, we swear on that show, we don't swear on morning TV — but we know the material really well. We know how to cut through the B.S.
So you obviously gained an extraordinary amount of fame, and in some quarters notoriety, with your numbers-based, data-driven approach. Take a little bit of — you say you have some opinions, you have some takes. Let's hear where do you think things stand right now? As you sat down, we were talking about we're in the stretch that is a little bit of election season. This is sort of — we're only 50 days out from Election Day. Talk to us about where you see the midterms.
Both history and current-year indicators would point in the same direction, which is it's probably going to be a blue year. We remember what happened in 2018 in the last midterm. President Trump's approval rating is in the 38 percent range, disapproval 58, 59 percent. The history of the president's party in the midterms, particularly in second terms or lame-duck terms, is not very appetizing for Trump. On the other hand, Democrats have to win four seats in the Senate, some of which are in very red territory. When we run these simulations every day — 40,000 — it literally comes out to almost 50-50 in the Senate. The House is certainly lean or maybe even likely Democratic. There is a GOP redistricting edge. If it's close, the GOP will win the toss-up races. Right now, based on the Democratic side, we'd bet the House and probably not bet either way on the Senate. It's actually tightened a little bit further in our forecast recently.
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Silver, N. (2026, September 9). ‘It’s probably gonna be a BLUE year’: Nate Silver gives midterms predictions, talks new podcast [Interview transcript]. MS NOW. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3143412/
MLA
Nate Silver. "‘It’s probably gonna be a BLUE year’: Nate Silver gives midterms predictions, talks new podcast." MS NOW, 9 Sep. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3143412/.
BibTeX
@misc{silver2026_3143412,
author = {Nate Silver},
title = {‘It’s probably gonna be a BLUE year’: Nate Silver gives midterms predictions, talks new podcast},
howpublished = {Interview transcript, MS NOW. CEOInterviews.AI},
year = {2026},
month = {sep},
url = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3143412/},
note = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}
