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Nate Silver

Founder, Silver Bulletin; founder of FiveThirtyEight, Silver Bulletin

Search every verified Nate Silver interview, podcast appearance, and on-the-record quote — each transcript cross-checked by AI and human review to confirm speaker identity. Nate Silver, founder of Silver Bulletin and co-host of the Still Counting podcast, has been a prominent voice in coverage of the 2026 midterm elections. Across numerous appearances in late September and October 2026, he discussed his election forecasting model, which he said gave Democrats roughly a 75-76% chance of winning the Senate and a 95% chance of taking the House. Silver attributed Democratic strength to factors including high gas prices, President Trump's low approval ratings, and historical patterns of the president's party performing poorly in midterms. He cautioned that polls carry uncertainty and could be wrong in either direction, while noting that Republican internal polls and spending decisions suggested party concern. Silver also addressed specific dynamics in the election cycle, including the impact of gerrymandering in states like Florida and Texas, the role of candidate quality in races such as Alaska and Iowa, and the presence of fake polls in the media ecosystem. He said his model uses a list of banned pollsters and that he relies on outlets like The New York Times for vetting. In discussing polling skepticism, he said it is not a "normal person" phenomenon but rather reflects elite anxiety following past polling misses. Silver also discussed the launch of Still Counting, a Crooked Media podcast reuniting him with former FiveThirtyEight colleagues Clare Malone and Galen Druke, and commented on the growing role of AI in his work, stating that most of his model's code is now written with AI assistance.

Recent appearances

  • My FINAL Prediction Of 2026 Midterms

    October 31, 2026 · 📺 Daily America

    Election Day is almost here, and this is my final prediction for the 2026 midterms. Who wins the House? Who controls the Senate? And which races could still surprise everyone? Democrats go into Election Day leading the national generic ballot by about 8 to 9 points, the same level as the 2018 blue wave. Trump's approval sits near 38 percent. But the Senate map is much tighter, and close races in Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina will decide who's in charge. In this video, we go race by race, look at the polls, early voting and money, and make a fin…

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  • Nate Silver On A Blue Wave, Republican Favorability, & Rising Polling Skepticism | Mixed Signals

    October 30, 2026 · 📺 Semafor

    Silver Bulletin founder Nate Silver joins Mixed Signals days before the midterms to explain why Democrats are surging in the polls. Max and Ben ask Nate why Republican internal polls are conceding states like Nebraska are now toss-ups, how he thinks about the ethics of a model that can move prediction markets the moment it’s released, and why rising skepticism of polls isn’t really a “normal person” phenomenon. Sign up for Semafor Media’s Sunday newsletter: https://www.semafor.com/newsletters/m... For more from Think with Google, check out ThinkwithGoogle.com. Find us on X: @semaforben, @ma…

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  • Everyone Is Rigging Election Maps. It Could Backfire. | Nate Silver

    October 29, 2026 · 📺 VICE News and Still Counting

    Fake polls. Betting markets. Gerrymandering. And billions of dollars spent. Are the rules of American elections being rewritten? Polling guru and Silver Bulletin founder Nate Silver joins Shane Smith to break down the chaos surrounding the 2026 midterms, from fabricated polls and the money behind election betting to an escalating redistricting war that could backfire on Republicans. Plus: Trump's sinking approval ratings, the possibility of a Democratic wave, and the Senate races that could change the balance of power in Washington. For nonpartisan data on the 2026 midterm election, check o…

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  • Why Trump Is Fighting For States He Easily Won

    October 28, 2026 · 📺 Still Counting

    Could Democrats Pull Off a SHOCKING Upset in Trump Country? SUBSCRIBE 👉 ‪@StillCountingPodcast‬ With Election Day less than a week away, Galen, Clare, and Nate answer your burning questions and unpack what the latest New York Times/Siena poll reveals about South Carolina’s Senate race, whether pollsters are herding, and how to interpret the numbers in the final stretch. They also dig into what early voting data can—and can’t—tell us about voter turnout and the broader electorate. CHECK OUT OUR SPONSORS: IRC - http://rescue.org/Rebuild MADE IN - http://madeincookware.com SUNDAYS FOR DOGS - h…

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  • Nate Silver On What the Polls Say — And What His Gut’s Telling Him | The Ezra Klein Show

    October 27, 2026 · 📺 The Ezra Klein Show and 2 more

    “If the election goes roughly as the polls say it will go, then in some ways it would mark the end of the Trump era,” Nate Silver told me. The midterms are a week away, and it looks entirely possible that Democrats will win not just the House, but also the Senate. Democrats are polling competitively deep into red territory – Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas – states that Trump won in 2024 by double digits. But Democrats have been burned by big polling misses before. So can we really trust what the polls are telling us? And what stories have emerged in the data that we might see play out on…

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  • Nate Silver: Dems have a 76% chance of winning the Senate | Fareed Discusses

    October 26, 2026 · 📺 CNN

    CNN's Fareed Zakaria speaks with polling expert Nate Silver about the 2026 midterm elections, as new forecasts point to mounting challenges for Republicans in the campaign's final days. While Silver cautioned that polling errors could still break in either direction, he said he has high confidence in this year's polling. His forecast model currently gives Democrats a 76% chance of winning a Senate majority. 0:00 Why Nate Silver feels confident in the polling data 3:40 How Texas gerrymandering could backfire 5:08 This election's biggest indicator is gas prices 5:59 Israel's upcoming national e…

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  • Nate Silver: Democrats Have a 75% Shot at the Senate

    October 26, 2026 · 📺 The Prof G Pod – Scott Galloway

    Nate Silver, statistician, bestselling author, writer of Silver Bulletin, and host of the ‪@StillCountingPodcast‬ joins Scott Galloway to break down the midterm outlook and what could determine control of Congress. He explains why his model favors Democrats, what could still go wrong, and which races to watch as results come in. They also discuss whether prediction markets offer an edge over polls, why campaign money can be overrated, and what Nate has learned about building an independent media business. This conversation was recorded on October 22, ahead of Election Day. Check out Nate’s…

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  • Nate Silver breaks down how likely Democrats are to win the midterms

    October 23, 2026 · 📺 Still Counting and Pod Save America

    Nate Silver and Tommy Vietor discuss the latest midterms polling, including where Democrats are trending up and where they might see complications. They also cover the impacts of a fake polling firm controversy, the odds of ticket splitting on election day, and Trump's collapsing approval rating. Each week, Nate Silver, Clare Malone and Galen Druke dig into the latest in politics and the numbers behind it. They break down what's happening, why, and what might happen next. They'll be covering everything from elections to betting markets to AI. Expect rigorous analysis and a few hot takes, but…

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  • Nate Silver On How Republicans’ Midterm Strategy May Have BACKFIRED

    October 23, 2026 · 📺 Runaway Country with Alex Wagner

    Nate Silver joins Alex Wagner to discuss the quality of Republican candidates, whether exorbitant spending by the GOP is making a difference in crucial midterm races like Texas, the value of Trump "on the ballot," and how Republicans may have miscalculated their gerrymandering strategy. Subscribe to our channel! Head to CrookedCon.com for tickets, lineup announcements, and more! http://crookedcon.com/ Photos courtesy of AP Photo Archive For a transcript of an episode of Runaway Country, please email [email protected]. Being an American right now is a wild ride. Every day brings a n…

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  • Nate Silver On What The Latest Polls Say About CRUCIAL Midterm Races

    October 22, 2026 · 📺 Runaway Country with Alex Wagner and Still Counting

    With the midterm elections only two weeks away, a lot of Democrats are feeling giddy about the prospects of flipping both houses of Congress. This week, Alex breaks down why overconfidence can be a risk, and why this will be a state by state, issue by issue battle until the end. She’s joined by Alex Seitz-Wald, Deputy Editor of the Midcoast Villager, who gives a local perspective on why the Senate race in Maine is still anyone’s call. Then Crooked media’s Nate Silver, author of the Silver Bulletin and co-host of Still Counting, joins to break down the latest polling and how it compares with el…

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  • Nate Silver Explains Why Republicans Are in Serious Trouble

    October 16, 2026 · 📺 The Fifth Column - A Podcast

    This is an excerpt from our Members Only Episode #350. For the full episode, please visit our Substack and subscribe: https://www.wethefifth.com/publish/po... Nate Silver joins The Fifth Column to explain why Democrats now have a 73% chance of taking the Senate. From Trump's decision to go to war with Iran to soaring gas prices and declining enthusiasm among his own supporters, Silver breaks down what's driving the shift in the polls and why Republicans could be headed for a disastrous midterm election. -- Hosted by journalists Kmele Foster, Michael Moynihan, and Matt Welch, The Fifth Column…

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  • Republicans Are Spending BIG. It's Not Working.

    October 14, 2026 · 📺 Still Counting

    Clare, Nate, and Galen check the latest in the FLIPR midterms forecast and discuss whether the election has solidified, or if Republicans can mount a last ditch recovery. SUBSCRIBE to our channel 👉  ‪@StillCountingPodcast‬ Then, in “Do You Buy It?” they put conventional wisdom to the test, unpacking the latest midterms headlines and examining whether the assumptions behind the stories actually hold up. They close by answering audience questions about the Epstein files’ impact on the midterms and whether a 20th century midterms election offers parallels to the current one. CHECK OUT THESE…

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Verified interview transcripts

Notable quotes

“Well I get annoyed more when people talk about models as opposed to polls. So I I think and you're welcome to aggregate this out right. I think 538 made maybe the best forecast we ever made in 2016 which is the year that we gave Trump a 30% chance and 29% technically when prediction markets had a much lower and the conventional wisdom has had much lower and like Matthew Dow um my former ABC's colleague like went on T”

“Well, I don't think that's a normal person thing. I mean, I'm not sure if normal people are looking at Silver Bulletin and Real Clear Politics and sites like that. I think it's a I mean, I can get psychological if you want, right? Let me start with the cynical interpretation, right? I think it kind of gets a little bit at people being terrified that they don't understand what's happening in the real America, right? A”

“Yeah. So, there are two kind of separate and related phenomenon. One is that people do a lot of self- sorting that liberals move into cities and high education areas and conservatives move into exurban areas and so like you know it's partly self- sorted but yeah so it used to be that you had um a census every 10 years and after the census happens you have to reortion the number of seats in Congress to make it proport”

“So, I always want to start with background conditions, right? Because polls and forecasts need context. Um, you know, if I had told you a couple years ago that gas would cost 440 a gallon, right? That President Trump's approval rating was starting to look like George W. Bush's approval rating in the second term, that we went to war with Iran, the Epstein files have turned into a negative storyline for Trump, that the”

“My job is to actually make a forecast, right? Democrat's job is to panic and/or spin. And probably both panic and/or spinning would lead you to take a more moderate view of the race. I mean, look, I'm going to say I'm trying to figure out how not to get myself in too much trouble, right? People have been talking about this obvious case that well you have all these Democratic ties or leads in red states and what if th”

“Well, what I talked about in that piece is that like it would be more embarrassing for the industry, meaning pollsters, forecasters, pundits, whatever, etc., if once again, Republicans beat their polls in the Midwest, right? So, like emotionally, I feel some need to hedge against that. And yeah, I'm a little skeptical of of Kansas maybe and Iowa and that tier of states. What's different though is that like so in 24 u”

The summary and quote tags on this profile are produced with AI assistance from verified, first-person interview transcripts, then checked by our team to confirm the speaker's identity and the accuracy of every quote. See how we verify →