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Dan Niles
Dan Niles
Founder and Portfolio Manager, Satori Fund (Niles Investment Management)
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'BIGGER PICTURE': Expert RAISES LARGER QUESTION for AI trade amid Nvidia fallout

📅 Nov 10, 2026 Fox Business 9 MIN 1220 VIEWS 22 SEGMENTS · 2 SPEAKERS
Nvidia stock tumbles as Niles Investment Management founder Dan Niles joins 'Making Money' to discuss the fallout surrounding CEO Jensen Huang and analyzes the tech sector pullback and more. 0:00 - NVIDIA and the Steve Jobs Analogy 0:01:54 - AI Trade: Speed Bump or March 2000? 0:03:07 - Anthropic’s Growth Deceleration and SoftBank Signals 0:05:19 - Lessons from the Dot-Com Era and Cisco 0:06:24 - Hyperscalers vs. Neoclouds and Chip Stocks 0:08:43 - Market Winners, Losers, and Short Ideas 0:09:12 - The Danger of Misleading Valuation Metrics Subscribe to Fox Business: https://bit.ly/2D9Cdse Wa...

What Dan Niles said

Written from the verified transcript and checked against it. Every figure links to the moment it was said.

Dan Niles of Niles Investment Management discussed Nvidia's resilience by comparing it to Apple after Steve Jobs' death, noting Apple outperformed the market in 2011. He argued Nvidia's product pipeline is strong for another one to two years, but the bigger issue for AI investors is the growth trajectory of companies like Anthropic, whose revenue growth slowed from 145% sequentially in Q2 to 45% in Q3 and 25% in Q4. Niles highlighted SoftBank's $3.7 billion write-down on power generation equipment as a warning sign, questioned the validity of long-term supply agreements, and expressed concern about regulatory limbo after elections. He predicted hyperscalers will survive due to diversified businesses, while neoclouds will be destroyed, and cautioned on valuation metrics.

Key takeaways

  1. Nvidia's pipeline ensures good performance for another one to two years, akin to Apple after Steve Jobs.
  2. Anthropic's revenue growth slowed from 145% sequentially in Q2 to 45% in Q3 and 25% in Q4.
  3. SoftBank's $3.7 billion write-down on power gen equipment signals possible demand weakness.
  4. Long-term supply agreements are worthless in a downturn, likely to be renegotiated.

Numbers and commitments

FigureWhat it refers toTypeAt
26% Apple's stock increase in 2011 after Jobs' death metric 0:16
145% Anthropic's Q2 sequential revenue growth metric 3:09
45% Anthropic's Q3 sequential revenue growth metric 3:09
25% Anthropic's Q4 sequential revenue growth estimate metric 3:09
$3.7 billion SoftBank's write-down on power generation equipment commitment 3:44
$300 billion Goldman Sachs' 2030 revenue forecast for AI other 5:22
30% to 50% Cisco's 2000 growth rate claims metric 5:22

Chapters

  1. 0:00Nvidia's resilience and pipeline
  2. 1:57AI trade and market comparison
  3. 3:09Anthropic's growth slowdown
  4. 3:44SoftBank write-down and demand signals
  5. 6:32Hyperscalers vs. neoclouds and chips
  6. 7:41Valuation and regulatory concerns

Questions asked in this interview

4
  1. 0:00Where do you stand with respect to Nvidia?
  2. 2:48Could that actually be one of the things that's great about this, helping out the fact that it's not just Nvidia and GPUs that are dominating the story?
  3. 5:02Does the stock or the potential stock, does it have to always be punished for that?
  4. 6:00You know, the hyperscalers, semiconductors, you know?
Charles 0:00 ↗
Technology, certainly not this technology. Nevertheless, they'll decide his fate. I want to bring in Dan Niles, Niles Investment Management -- Niles Investment Management portfolio manager. Where do you stand with respect to Nvidia?
Dan Niles 0:16 ↗
I'll give you an analogy. Steve Jobs had cancer, took his final leave of absence in January of 2007. Unfortunately, passed away in October of 2011. That year the S&P was flat, Nasdaq was down, and Apple finished the year up 26%. So Nvidia, the products that Jensen has in the pipeline, they're going to be good for at least another one to two years.
And, you know, he's got a very deep bench. We don't know who the successor would be if he got kicked out. I hope he gets to stay because he is a generational CEO in terms of his business acumen, his engineering acumen. But, you know, Nvidia is more than one person. Obviously, it'd be a big loss, but I think we can all agree Steve Jobs was a big loss at Apple, and the stock outperformed, by the way, the second year after he passed away too.
So because of those products in the pipeline, that's my thoughts on Nvidia. We'll have to see.
Charles 1:20 ↗
By the way, Dan, we do have a chart. This is going back to June/July 2011, to your point. The news came out Jobs was sick, the cancer was spreading. In July he officially resigned, and that August, this is against the S&P, significantly outperforming. And so we get that point. And listen, the Jensen Huang story is so amazing just how hard he fought, how much he was blocked out of this industry by the industry, and finally broke through. You know, I would assume that Tim Cook, you know, there would be a successor, but shareholders certainly don't want to lose him right now. You know, beyond this saga, this is finished.
Dan Niles 1:57 ↗
Honestly, I think this is a sideline, Charles. Quite honestly, no real AI investor cares about this. In the sense that the thing that we're all trying to figure out is, is this March of 2000 for AI, or is this a speed bump like we saw in 1997 and '98 where the semi index went down 40% in '97 off the Asian currency crisis, and it went down 40% from peak to trough in 1998 because of the Russian bond default.
By the way, both of those years the semi index finished up 10% and 30%, and it ripped higher in '99. This, obviously, is important for Nvidia, but for the AI trade, it really doesn't matter. It's the bigger picture question of do we have a much larger problem that we're dealing with.
Charles 2:48 ↗
All right, and I want to kind of pick up on that in the sense that, okay, this is the fourth 20% drawdown they've had in just the last couple years, in part because I think the street sensed there might be more competition. Could that actually be one of the things that's great about this, helping out the fact that it's not just Nvidia and GPUs that are dominating the story?
Dan Niles 3:09 ↗
Yeah. I mean, I think the bigger question is what you led into this with, which is what is Anthropic going to look like, right? Because here's the thing: Anthropic's revenues grew like 145% sequentially in Q2. That slowed to around 45% or so in Q3. That looks like it's slowing again in Q4 to like 25% growth. And so it's going to be the trajectory of what's going on there, and then what do these midterms mean for the AI buildout.
Like, hearing SoftBank last night saying, hey, we're taking a $3.7 billion write-down on power generation equipment because our Ohio facilities, you know, were -- they tried their best to say, hey, we're not canceling, but when you're taking a $3.7 billion write-down on power gen equipment, that probably is meaningful, right? So it's those things -- meaningful, right? That's the stuff that, you know, investors should be hyper-focused on because maybe we have seen the top. I don't think that's the case, but that's why I try to avoid these massive drawdowns when I can because you never know, right? And this may be March of 2000, not '97 or '98.
Charles 4:31 ↗
Listen, we all love to avoid them, and then we're taught, hey, look at the fundamentals. A lot of people are holding on to a lot of great tech names that fundamentally look like they should be screaming buys --

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Cite this transcript

APA, MLA, BibTeX
APA

Niles, D. (2026, November 10). 'BIGGER PICTURE': Expert RAISES LARGER QUESTION for AI trade amid Nvidia fallout [Interview transcript]. Fox Business. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3244301/

MLA

Dan Niles. "'BIGGER PICTURE': Expert RAISES LARGER QUESTION for AI trade amid Nvidia fallout." Fox Business, 10 Nov. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3244301/.

BibTeX 
@misc{niles2026_3244301,
  author       = {Dan Niles},
  title        = {'BIGGER PICTURE': Expert RAISES LARGER QUESTION for AI trade amid Nvidia fallout},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, Fox Business. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {nov},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3244301/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}