First, we already see that the market share of market mortgages is growing. Of course, preferential mortgages still account for a dominant share of mortgage issuances, primarily family mortgage. But we see that even for that, the reduction of the key rate responded to market mortgage. We believe that this will continue as inflation declines and the key mortgage rate will rise. What will be the level of rates in this case? Well, the activation will probably be quite noticeable when the key rate is close to neutral ranges.
Thank you. And the next question from Krasnodar from Artem Permyakov. Online RBC South and North Caucasus publication. Please, Artyom.
Yes, hello. From January 1, 2026, VAT will increase up to 22%. How did the Central Bank take this increase into account when making a decision on the key rate today, and how can the Central Bank offset a possible increase in prices? Thank you.
We took into account that the increase in VAT may significantly affect prices in the coming months. I must say that it is already reflected, in our opinion, on inflationary expectations. But we still have to see what the final effect will be. And we will take all this into account, choosing the speed and descent trajectory of rates. And we believe that our tough monetary policy allows to reduce the transfer of VAT increase to prices and allows to reduce secondary effects. All this keeps inflation in check.
Two small additions. The effects of VAT were also taken into account in the forecast and in the decision back at the October meeting. That is, the October decision has already taken into account decisions on changes in VAT. And the second consideration, I want to emphasize once again that on a medium-term horizon, if you look at the year as a whole, then the VAT increase will be of a disinflationary nature compared to the option if it were not for it and the budget would face a higher deficit.
Colleagues, please, Yuri, second row.
Good evening. Yuri Lylov, Bitcoin. Now some brokers offer a decentralized exchange in a blocked assets format, paper on paper. Question: how do you assess the prospects of this exchange? And in case the exchange does not take place or if it doesn't happen completely, then what decision does the regulator plan to take to unlock assets of Russians? Thank you.
Well, we haven't received any official documents on the conduct of such exchanges, so it's probably premature to talk about some additional actions.
Colleagues, please, Nastya.
Anastasia Savelyeva, Interfax. Do you exclude a surge in price growth only in January or some other months next year? And accordingly, do we understand correctly that you will continue to act smoothly in relation to the key rate, avoiding sudden movements? Second question: has the Central Bank already calculated the effect of the cancellation of the VAT benefit on transactions with bank cards? Do you agree with Sberbank's assessment that this will cost the sector 200 billion rubles? And will you give recommendations to banks so that they do not pass these costs on to clients, or is this still the banks' right?
Well, we really are being careful enough when making decisions on rates, taking into account the prevalence of inflationary risks now. Yes, you see, according to our forecast in the baseline scenario, a rate reduction is expected next year, but taking into account inflationary factors associated with high inflation expectations and others we called, of course we will tread carefully. As for inflation dynamics over the next year, yes, perhaps some growth in the current rate of price growth is possible in January in connection with the increase in VAT. And we believe that sustainable inflation after this surge will continue to decrease, and in the second half of the year sustainable inflation components will be around 4%. Some increase in the current rate of price growth is possible in October when tariffs are indexed, but we also believe that this will be a temporary effect. Yes. The second question is about acquiring. We expect that soon there will be clarifications from the Ministry of Finance as to what list of operations falls under VAT. Only after this will it be possible to make more accurate estimates. But in general, it is obvious that the abolition of the tax benefit can affect the payment market. Of course, there is a risk that banks will transfer their expenses to tariffs. But this movement must be taken into account in the context of tax changes in general. And as Alexey Borisovich has already spoken about, if the choice is between raising taxes and an increase in the budget deficit, then the tax increase is much less inflationary than the second. And how they will transfer inflation into prices, as well as in general for inflation, tax increases affect prices. Also in the economy as a whole, economic entities make independent decisions, but also focusing on both demand and competition that exists. And there is this competition in the payment market as well. So I think that banks will take this into account.
Colleagues, please, Anastasia, second row.
Thanks a lot. Anastasia Bashkatova, independent newspaper. Back to the topic of the inflation target, here's the question, maybe even a little bit disappointing results. This is what you think, and why? Still, despite a long period of really tough monetary policy, you haven't managed to achieve this target at the level of 4%. What is interfering, at what stage is there a failure? According to your estimates. Thank you.
In our opinion, there is no failure. Due to the fact that in previous years inflationary risks were being implemented, they were embodied, and our inflation was accelerating. And I remind you that at the end of 2024, that's a year ago, if you take the monthly rate of price growth by the end of the year and recalculate them for a year, they were more than 14%. That is, we entered the year with very high inflation, and we didn't set ourselves the task of achieving the target this year. Because it would not have been a soft landing and there would have been a risk that next year we would have deviated significantly downwards from the target. And that's why we forecast at the beginning of the year, if you remember, inflation at the end of this year at 7-8%. Inflation is slowing down faster than monetary policy. That's why we believe that the policy is working. And we move on, as planned, to balanced rates of credit growth. We influence through the rate primarily credit, and in general to balanced rates of economic growth.
Thank you. Next question from Yekaterinburg by Anton Glukhov. Online publication URA.RU. Please, Anton.
Good evening. In recent years, the Central Bank successfully coped with the shock of 2022, curbed inflation, but the economy entered a period of structural perestroika. How today at the end of 2025 are you balancing between, on the one hand, the need to contain inflation, and on the other, stimulation of lending and investments for growth? Which one of these counterweights is now your absolute priority?
Well, the absolute priority for us is price stability, and it does not contradict the development goals of lending, investment growth for economic growth. But on the contrary, it serves as conditions for growth of lending and for investment growth, for stable, sustainable growth of the economy. Well, I would like to note that stable low inflation is not some kind of departmental task, it is really a foundation for normal economic development, including for long-term lending, long-term investments in production development. And so, of course, it is very important to draw a line under this long period of high inflation. By the way, lending growth did not stop. And if you look back at the last three years, in 2023 and this year, lending has grown very significantly. And now the latest data from the beginning of December speak that the loan portfolio in general, in the language of economists, this is called requirements for the economy, right? It has reached 155 trillion rubles. And this corresponds to the fact that since 2022 the loan portfolio grew by 55%. Moreover, there was a noticeable increase in real terms as well. If you take into account clearing this growth rate from the influence of inflation, then lending increased by 25% over 3 years. It is very important that it is not only short-term loans; over 45% of this increase in loans are loans for periods exceeding 3 years. Such loans, as a rule, are taken for investment. And such a significant growth in loans provided in many ways just as significant an increase in investment. And so I already said in my introductory remarks about investments. You need to look at the numbers carefully. For the first three quarters, investments in fixed assets amounted to 26 trillion rubles. This is a 10% increase compared to last year. If we make an adjustment for rising prices, then it is positive 0.5% in real terms. It seems like small growth. But what I want to emphasize is that the level of investment, the volume of investments that are made, has reached record levels, and all this will support the growth of production capabilities. You know, my colleagues give an example. I think it allows us to look at these investment growth rates and the achieved investment level by analogy with a car. To go fast, it's enough to accelerate once and then continue to maintain this speed, not continuously increase your speed. And in this analogy, speed is not the growth of investments, but their achieved level. It is precisely the level of investment, and also productivity, as far as these investments lead to labor productivity, that largely determines the pace of gross domestic product.
Thank you, colleagues. Please, Elena, penultimate row.
Elena Fabrichnaya, Reuters. My question is related to the lawsuit filed by the Bank of Russia to Euroclear. Do you already understand what assets can be foreclosed on? Client assets of the depository? And in connection with the current decision of the EU summit, maybe the Central Bank will change its mind or at least soften its position to continue filing lawsuits against European banks. Thank you.
No, we are not planning to withdraw our claims yet. Well, regarding the first part of the question, how the court decision will be executed. Your question is about how exactly it will be fulfilled, how the damage will be recovered. That will be determined later, after the court's decision is made and after it comes into legal force. But I want to say that we are also considering the possibility of protecting interests in international courts and arbitrations, with subsequent enforcement of acts of such courts in other states.
Colleagues, please, Mikhail, the last row.
Mikhail Maseev, Frankmedia. It was already mentioned that from 2026 VAT is introduced on transactions with bank cards. How do you feel about this in general? Do you see now that there are more cash payments than payments by cards? And do you see the risks of such a certain activation of cash payments? And one more small clarification, but about the record growth of corporate lending in October, apparently, in November. What do you attribute this to? And do you think that this is higher than it should be in order to achieve the inflation target?
Regarding the increase in VAT on banking transactions, I treat it as an already accomplished fact. The decision has been made, yes, it can entail some increase in payment tariffs. But once again, this decision should be treated as part of a complex of decisions on tax changes. And these tax changes were adopted in connection with increasing costs. The alternative was to increase the deficit. If we compare these two options from the point of view of our mandate, of course, an increase in VAT is more disinflationary than the alternative option. Regarding the transfer of payments to the cash sphere in connection with the increase in VAT, I don't see such a risk at all. Because citizens are already used to paying cashlessly. It's convenient, quick, and they prefer cashless payments. And we don't see any statistics yet, and I don't think we will see any reduction in cash payments. As for the record growth in the corporate sector, there really is an acceleration in lending. This may be partly due to seasonality. Corporate lending, especially from recipients of government funds, grows in anticipation that budget funds will come soon. But this may also be connected with the softening of monetary conditions. But it must be said that it is not a record; it really sped up after the beginning of the year, after the first half of the year, but corporate lending growth is slower than in 2023 and 2024. As for the impact on inflation, the overall growth rates of lending are important to us. By the way, retail lending is lower than we expected at the beginning of the year. And in general, we don't look so much at the rate of growth of lending, but at monetary aggregates. It is very important how much financial resources come through the budget channel. That's why it is always a comprehensive analysis. But, of course, such an increase in corporate lending needs to be monitored closely, and how much money will we have in general aggregates grow, considering that in corporate lending we have a large share of borrowers insensitive or slightly sensitive to the interest rate.
Thank you, colleagues. Please, Marina.
Marina Piminova, NTV Business News. Last year, following the final meeting, you said that you would ask Santa Claus for balanced growth rates of the economy and a slowdown in price growth. Considering that this year the Central Bank has never raised the key rate, it turns out that the wish came true, perhaps it began to come true. And maybe you have a new wish, since the previous ones seemed to work out well.
Did the wish come true? Our policy worked, but we really came to the conclusion that inflation has significantly slowed down, the economy is moving to balanced growth rates. Yes, and for next year I would like us not just to touch 4% inflation, but to have steadily achieved price stability. I would like our citizens and our business to feel the advantage of low inflation. Thank you.
The next question is from Victoria Shergina, Vedomosti Finance. Please, Vika.
Hello. Thank you. Inflation is really slowing down faster than expectations. But the risks for the financial system, on the contrary, seem to be growing, primarily due to the increased debt burden on companies. And how important is the issue of financial stability for the Central Bank now? Does it influence the decision on the key rate? And also, people are interested in how stable the Russian banking system is and whether it is safe to keep money in banks. What could you tell people? Thank you.
Well, the issues of financial stability are always a priority for us, we always have them in mind. But now we don't see any risks to financial stability. Although, you know, we do quarterly special reports on financial stability risks, we look at where vulnerabilities can ripen. It is very important for us to prevent the occurrence of these risks. And we look at leading indicators and so on. So I can answer that now we don't see such risks, and this did not influence the decision on the rate. Regarding the stability of the banking system, it remains quite stable. We see that there is some growth in problem loans, but the share of bad corporate loans has grown quite a bit and is around 4%. It's not much at all. The banking system is well capitalized, once again. And there are no questions here, in our opinion.
Colleagues, please, Rita.
Margarita Mordovina, RBC. Just the other day it became known that the EU Council did not approve the confiscation of frozen Russian assets. Do you connect this, including with what was expressed your position on what you are planning and conducting a court hearing at the need for international courts, and did your retaliatory measure work this way? And also on Euroclear, a small additional question. Did you request a closed consideration of the case? What risks do you see if you petitioned for this? And if it is still closed, how will we find out what will happen there, how will you build communication with the market on this issue? Thank you.
Well, it's hard for me to comment on which specific arguments you've got wrong. You probably saw in the press that various issues were discussed quite actively, but first of all, it seems to me that this is related to the fact that this decision would undermine the basic foundations of the functioning of the international financial system. This is obvious. And regarding the consideration of the regime of our claims, we actually petitioned for a closed mode, because information that constitutes banking secrecy will be presented. It is natural that we do not comment on the progress of the consideration of the claim; we usually don't comment on the progress of our lawsuits.
Thank you. Colleagues, please, Natasha.
Continuing the topic of Euroclear and your claim against this depository, the question is: please tell me, how many Russians are interested? Why was it necessary to wait almost 3 years to file a lawsuit, given that the head of Euroclear stated that this organization has assets in Russia of a large sum, more than 18 billion. So why did it take so long to wait? Thanks a lot.
Why did we file a lawsuit now and not earlier? There were circumstances for that, which it will be appropriate to talk about later. And what will happen next, how the court decision will be executed, will be defined, as I already said, once again I want to emphasize, after the court decision comes into legal force.
Colleagues, please. I see Artyom's hand. Last row.
Good afternoon. Artem Govorin, investor. We are now in a situation where we are seeing a slowdown in inflation, the rate cut cycle has already begun, but inflationary expectations are increasing. And in this light, I want to know what plays a major role for the Bank of Russia in making a decision on the key rate: the dynamics of inflation or the dynamics of inflationary expectations? And about assets, a small addition. How can the European Union's decision to impose an indefinite freeze affect the new exchange cycle of frozen assets of investors? Thank you.
Well, the answer to the second question is short: this obviously doesn't help solve these issues. As for the divergence of inflation and inflation expectations, this is a good question. Indeed, when they are moving in different directions, this complicates the assessment of the situation. And it is much more difficult to draw conclusions about the stability of some trends than if they were co-directed. And it is around these multidirectional trends that you ask, there was a significant part of the discussions at the board of directors between those who advocated for the decision to keep the rate unchanged, let's say, and those who suggested taking a more decisive step. And now we believe that these high inflationary expectations, and even some increase, especially in business, is a reaction to the expected increase in VAT, on indexing parameters of housing and communal services, and other one-time inflationary factors. And we consider this to be a significant persistent inflationary risk. And we are not just worried about rising inflation expectations, but that they can become entrenched at this elevated level. And with this, in part, is connected the restrained step in reducing the key rate. And what else might be worth noting is that the sensitivity of our decisions or monetary policy to inflation expectations increases when they are exactly that: high and anchored. That is, in this situation, when inflation expectations are anchored at a high level, inflation can be much stronger, its acceleration may happen with a much higher probability upon premature over-softening of monetary policy than if inflationary expectations were anchored. So, yes, these divergent trends we have to deal with determine this condition.
Thank you. And the next question is from Anastasia Murzinskaya, Izhevsk city, information agency Udmurtia. Please.
Good evening. Why at a key rate of 16% do banks give loans at 40% and higher? What is this connected with? Thank you.
Yes, this question always comes up, that banks offer higher rates than our key rate. Well, what needs to be said here? What to look for? Such mass credit products. And if they were somewhere in the range from 15 to 18% depending on the term. In this case, they pass in a separate line for developers. The rates there are around 10%. Rates above 24%, we are analyzing this, were provided for loans. Loans to the population, naturally, are more expensive: for a period of six months or a year, rates are 23%; over a year, rates are 17% on average. But high rates, what are they related to? They are related to assessments of risks and costs of issuing loans by the bank. Let's look at an example of a corporate loan. If the loan is requested by a company that has stable sales, no over-indebtedness, low debt load, then it can count on a lower rate than a company that can barely make ends meet. Therefore, differentiation of rates on corporate loans is quite large. You can see this in the bond market. If you look at high-yield bonds, the rating is now about 15%, and with the lowest rating already almost 30%. That is a huge difference in profitability. The same differences can be seen in loan rates. And the same thing, by the way, regarding loans for people. If we look, also on mortgages, we compare mortgages with credit cards. The rates vary.
Thank you, colleagues. Please, Anna, last row.
Good evening. Anna Gromova, block Annafinance. I have a question about non-state pension funds. The NPF remuneration system consists of management fees, which are currently 0.6%, and success fees of 20-25%. Due to the fact that non-state pension funds are invested in conservative assets, don't you think that the commission for success is strongly overstated and eats into the profitability of pension savings of citizens, which is already low due to the fact that they use conservative assets? Thanks a lot. Happy New Year.
Thank you. We have non-state pension funds' rewards. It's important how to approach the remuneration of state pension funds. It is important that it is balanced and creates the right motivation. And what is the right motivation? So that non-state pension funds invest funds into exactly those assets that bring the greatest benefit from the point of view of profitability and risk management for future retirees. Therefore, in fact, we have moved away from the model that was some time ago when the reward actually did not depend on the quality of management. Since last year, as you rightly noted, we have two parts of the reward: one for management, another for success. And the reward for success is tied to the average profitability of three-year deposits. It's like a benchmark: if the fund earns more, accordingly, this reward is higher. The part that is related to management will be reduced by law from 2027 after the NPF completes adaptation to the new system. We will keep an eye on how this new reward system is applied by the funds. If necessary, we will propose adjustments.
Thank you, colleagues. Please, Nikita.
Good afternoon. Nikita Mitrofanov, Telegram channel Economical. I recently had a baptism of fire. The first bond I bought was a corporate bond that defaulted. And from this situation, the question arose: how has the risk of default changed this year in the business segment compared to the past year? Has it grown, and what are the Central Bank's expectations for defaults, not in the banking sector, but in the business segment next year? And in the context of business, I have a small additional question: was there any idea regarding VAT to protect small businesses from this VAT on acquiring, because they will encounter this VAT for the first time, and they immediately take it into their expenses. They cannot generate purchase books and sales books to at least break even or return from the budget, as large or medium businesses do. Thank you.
Thanks a lot. But first, about debts. We don't expect that tight monetary policy will lead to a systemic increase in problem loans. Yes, some defaults happen at almost any time. We are closely monitoring the quality of corporate debt of banks. And the overall quality of loan servicing, despite the increase in rates, despite the increased interest burden on companies, remains high. We compare with historical values; it remains high, although the picture in different industries is really different. Inside the loan portfolio, if we look at the countries of banks' loan portfolios, there is a larger share of companies that banks themselves belong to the yellow zone, which they observe. But the most problematic share, the share of problem loans of the fourth and fifth category, has grown by only 0.2 percentage points since the beginning of the year, up to 4%. This is what is usually called the red zone. The situation is actually worse in the small business sector, where from the beginning of the year the share of companies that are not able to service loans increased to 9.8%. And we have recommended to banks to ease the burden on debt servicing, to meet clients halfway, to restructure loans, and we do not require them to create appropriate reserves if there is a prospect of restoring solvency. And it must be said that for small and medium businesses, that was the second part of the question regarding taxes on acquiring, but this is a question rather for the government. And as for small and medium businesses, since October the law on credit holidays for small and medium businesses came into force, by which small and medium companies can take advantage of the deferment even if revenue remained unchanged. You remember such programs were used, they were tied to revenue as population income. And we see that in two months, banks have already received a fairly large number of applications, 17,000 applications, and provide credit holidays within the framework of this law, but not only within the framework of this law. What is good about the law is that it forces banks to offer their own restructuring programs. We see that such restructuring is taking place. And it is necessary, of course, to take into account that the reduction of the key rate, which in the baseline scenario we will continue to have, will be neutralized by the reduction of interest expenses. Why fast? Because a significant part of loans, including for small and medium businesses, have floating rates.
Colleagues, do you have any other questions? Yes, please. Catherine.
Hello, Ekaterina Litova, statements. How, what do you think, why are inflation rates in December, in the first week, so low, they make up only 0.5%, although many warned of a surge ahead of the VAT increase? This is the first question. And the second, how high do you assess the risks of a more significant slowdown in domestic demand, and will it be necessary to further stimulate it?
I'll ask Alexey Borisovich. Yes. Well, let's wait for the numbers for the full month. We still have weeks, and not always exactly match what is obtained for the full month. But one of the explanations, the one that Ilzana already voiced today, is that companies don't really want to drag large warehouse stocks over the end of the year, because then they will have to sell them with VAT of 22% next year. And accordingly, this reduction in warehouses may be a significant factor that affects prices in November and December. And that means, if that's the case, back after we move on by the end of the year. Therefore, to draw conclusions about inflation in November-December, it's worth waiting for the full December figures, but it's probably worth looking at what will happen in January-February as well. And in terms of demand dynamics, for now we see that the growth rate of aggregate demand in the economy remains positive, because if it was GDP dynamics at the end of this year, and this is not happening.
Thank you. And the next question is from Vologda from Alexey Tretyakov, Krasny Sever newspaper. Please, Alexey.
Good evening. At one time, preferential mortgage was cancelled, including to cool the market and stabilize housing prices. Meanwhile, real estate continues to rise in price. For example, in Vologda, a one-room apartment is already being offered for 4-5 million rubles and even higher. Why does this happen? Thank you.
Thank you very much for your question. The situation varies greatly by region. And we see that there are regions where prices this year even decreased a little, but in many regions they have significantly slowed down compared to the previous year. For example, an indicative situation in the Krasnodar region, which was traditionally considered one of the most overheated from a housing market point of view. And prices there rose by 4.3%, below inflation. By the way, in the Vologda region overall, the price growth was the same. And overall, on average across the country, the rise in prices for primary housing slowed down compared to last year. Why do prices keep rising? Well, firstly, demand remains significant. Because our program of preferential non-addressed mortgage was shut down, but family mortgage, it is also quite large, Far Eastern, other programs, they continue to operate. I already said, people are more willing to take out market mortgages. And overall, the demand for housing remains quite worthy. By the way, people buy apartments not only with a mortgage, and demand for housing cannot be looked at only through mortgages. They take installment plans; debt on installment plans for housing has already reached one and a half trillion rubles. This is also realized demand that is not reflected in the growth of mortgages. And so that prices for housing under construction are rising due to increased demand. We see it. Well, it really has become more lively compared to the end of last year and the first half of this year. What can be done to make prices rise slower? Of course, labor productivity in the housing sector itself should also increase. There shouldn't be such a rise in prices that we saw in previous years.
Thank you, colleagues. Any other questions? Yes, Natalia, please.
Good evening. Natalia Kotovskaya about finance. I have a question about continuing the topic that was just touched on by the previous speaker, so to speak. And preferential mortgage programs continue to worry the minds of citizens. As you just noticed, they influence the expansion of demand, maintain the price level. And as a result, the cost of these programs is transferred to other market participants through higher rates, through budget expenditures, through inflationary pressure. And I have two questions with your permission. First: can it be said that preferential mortgage programs, including family ones, affect price growth not only through the expansion of demand, but also the rise in prices in the real estate market and the general price level in the economy? And the second question: in your view, under what conditions can preferential mortgage programs exist without such noticeable distortions in the market in terms of prices, accessibility, and impact on inflation? Thank you.
Thank you for your question. You are absolutely right. Any benefits are paid for by someone, and this happens in any market too. Any benefit program affects demand and affects prices. The question is its volume. Well, if the scale is small, then there will be no distortions in the market as a whole. That's why we have always advocated that preferential programs, no matter in the housing sector or in other areas, must be very targeted, focused on priorities, and not lead to such distortions. And large-scale, non-addressed preferential mortgage programs accelerate demand very quickly. We saw this. Then it is purely physically impossible to quickly increase the supply of real estate, prices grow on apartments. And along the chain, here is your question, yes, and in the chain it heats up the general price level. It really does get heated up because competition for labor is growing, especially in conditions of personnel shortage, for materials, for equipment. And all this is reflected in the overall price pressure in the economy. So here I won't tire of repeating: targeting of preferential programs is important so that there are no such distortions. Here is a family trick.
And that's why we forecast at the beginning of the year, if you remember, they did it according to inflation end of this year 7-8%. Inflation is slowing down faster and slows down under the influence of harsh monetary policy. That's why we believe that the policy is working. And we move on, as planned, to balanced rates of credit growth. We influence through the rate primarily credit, and in general to balanced the rate of economic growth.
Thank you. Next question from Yekaterinburg from Anton Glukhov, online Ura.ru publication. Please, Anton.
Good evening. And in recent years, the Central Bank successfully coped with the shock of twenty-second year, curbed inflation, but the economy entered a period of structural perestroika. And how is it today at the end of the twenty-fifth year you balance between, on the one hand, necessity to contain inflation, and on the other stimulating lending and investments for growth. Which one of these counterweights now for you absolute priority?
Well, absolute price is our priority stability, and it does not contradict the goals of development of lending, growth investments for economic growth, and on the contrary, it serves as a condition for growth lending, and for investment growth, for stable, sustainable growth economy. Well, I would like to note that here is stable low inflation - this is not some kind of departmental task, this really a foundation for normal economic development, including for long-term lending, long-term investments in production development. And so of course it's very important rather draw a line under this long period of high inflation. By the way, height lending did not stop. And if look back at the last three years, then twenty-third year, including this year, lending has grown very much essential. And now the last ones data as of the beginning of December, they speak about next, that the loan portfolio in general, in the language of economists, this is called requirements for the economy, right? Here it has reached 155 trillion rubles. And this corresponds that since the twenty-second year the loan portfolio grew by 55%. Moreover, there was a noticeable increase in real terms as well. If you take into account clear this growth rate from influence inflation, then it grew by 25% over 3 years lending has increased. It is very important that it is not only short short-term loans, over 45% here this increase in loans is loans for periods exceeding 3 years. Such loans, as a rule, they are taken for investment. And here is such a significant growth in loans, he provided in many ways just as much significant increase in investment. And so I already said in my introductory remarks about investments. You need to look at the numbers carefully. Here's what we have for the first three quarters investments in fixed assets amounted to 26 trillion rubles. This is a 10% increase compared to the previous year. If we make an adjustment for rising prices, then it positive 0.5% of the actual expression. Seems to be small in stature. But what do I want to emphasize, already the level of investment, volume investments that are being made, he achieved record levels, and all this will be support the growth of production opportunities. You know, here are my colleagues they give an example, it seems to me that it allows look at these investment growth rates and on the achieved level of investment by analogy with by car. Here, to go fast, it's enough to accelerate once and then continue maintain this speed, not continuously increase your speed. And in this analogy, speed is not growth of investments, and their achieved level. It's precisely the level of investment, well, and also productivity, as far as these investment leads to productivity labor, largely determines the tempo of simplicity gross domestic product.
Thank you, colleagues. Please, Elena, penultimate row.
Elena Fabrichnaya, Reuters. My question is related to the lawsuit filed by Bank of Russia to Euroclear. And you already? do you understand what assets can be collection has been levied, will this happen? client assets of the depository and in connection with the current decision of the EU summit, maybe maybe the Central Bank will change its mind or at least soften it your position to continue filing lawsuits against To European banks? Thank you.
No, we are not planning to withdraw ours yet claims. Well, regarding the first part of the question, uh how the court decision will be executed. Your question is about how exactly it will be will be fulfilled, eh, how will it be indignant damage. Uh, that will be determined later. how the court's decision will be made and after it comes into legal force force. But I want to say that we also we are considering the possibility of protection interests also in international courts and arbitrations with the following reduction in enforcement of acts of such courts in other states.
Colleagues, please, Mikhail, the last row.
A, Mikhail Maseev, Frankmedia. Here it is already they mentioned that since the twenty-sixth year VAT is introduced on banking transactions maps. Oh, and that's how you feel about this in general. do you relate to it? Do you see now that there is more cash payments than payments by cards? And do you even see the risks? such a certain activation of e cash payments? And one more small thing clarification, but about the growth records corp lending in October, apparently, in November. What do you attribute this to? Here. And do you think that this is higher than must be in order to achieve the goal inflation?
Regarding the increase VAT on banking transactions, that's what I mean I treat it as an already accomplished fact. This decision has been made. Yes, it can entail some increase in tariffs payments. Eh, but once again, to this decision should be treated as part of a complex decisions on tax changes. And these tax changes were adopted in connection with with increasing costs. The alternative was to increase the deficit, increase in public debt. If we compare these two options from the point of view vision our mandate, of course, is an increase VAT more disinflationary than the alternative option. Regarding the translation of the transition payments in the cash sphere in connection with I don't see any risk of VAT increase at all I see. Because to the citizens, but they already are used to paying cashlessly. This convenient, fast and prefer, Of course, cashless payments. And in We don't see any statistics yet either I don't think we'll see any reduction. cash payments. As for record growth in corporate sectors, uh here, uh, really There is an acceleration of lending. Partially This may be due to seasonality. U we have a corporate lending season, especially from the recipients' side government funds, is growing in anticipation of what Budget funds will arrive soon. Here. But it may also be related in general It can't be connected with something softer, but it's definitely is also associated with the softening of e monetary conditions. But it must be said that it is not a record, it really accelerated after beginning beginning of the year, after the first half of the year, but the growth of corporate lending slower than in the twenty-third and in in the twenty-fourth year. As for impact on inflation, for us the general ones are important rates, general rates of growth of lending. By the way, retail lending is its growth rate is lower than we expected in at the beginning of the year. And in general we even look not so much on the growth rate lending, how much for cash units. It is very important how much money resources are received through the budget channel. Therefore, it is always a comprehensive analysis. Well, of course, that's such an increase. corporate lending He needs to be monitored closely. And how much money will we have in total? aggregates grow. Considering that in lending, in corporate, we have a large share insensitive or slightly sensitive interest rate of borrowers, loans borrower.
Thank you, colleagues. Please, Marina.
Marina Piminova, NTV Business News. In last year following the final At the meeting you said that you would ask Santa Claus balanced growth rates economy and a slowdown in price growth. Considering that this year the Central Bank has not has never raised the key rate. It turns out that the wish came true, perhaps, it began to come true. Uh, and maybe u You have a new wish, since The previous ones seemed to work out well.
Was it a wish that came true or our policy it worked, but we really came to the conclusion that inflation is significantly slowed down, the economy is transitioning balanced growth rates. Yes and on Next year I would like us not to just touched 4% inflation, and have steadily achieved price stability. I would like our citizens to, our business felt the advantage low inflation.
Thank you. And the next question is from Victoria Shergins, Ly and Finance. Please, Vetch.
Hello. Thank you. And inflation It's actually slowing down faster now expectations. But the risks for the financial systems, on the contrary, seem to be growing, primarily due to increased debt burden on companies. How much is it for the Central Bank now? Is the issue of financial stability important? Does this affect the decision on the key rate? And people are also interested in, How stable is the banking system? Russia and is it safe to keep money in banks? What could you tell people? Thank you.
Well, the issues of financial stability for we are always a priority, we always have meaning. But now we don't see any risks. financial stability, although, you You know, we do it quarterly special reports on financial risks stability, we look at the vulnerabilities where they can ripen. It is very important for us prevent the occurrence of these risks and we look at leading indicators and and so on. That's why I can answer this way, that there are no such things now we don't see any risks and it didn't affect decision making at the rate. As for sustainability banking system, it remains quite sustainable. And we see that yes, there is some growth. problem loans, but the share, for example, bad corporate loans, she has grown quite a bit and is located around 4%. It's not much at all. The banking system is good capitalized, once again, and no There are no questions here either, in your opinion.
Colleagues, please, Rita.
Margarita Mordovina, RBC. Just the other day It became known that the EU Council did not approve confiscation of frozen assets Russian assets. And do you connect? this is also with what you expressed your position on what you are planning and conduct court hearings at the need for international courts? And Did yours work this way? retaliatory measure? And also according to Euroclear a small additional question. A did you request a closed consideration of the case? What risks are you taking? see if you petitioned for this? And if it is still closed, how we will find out what will happen there what's happening, what will happen there, How will you build communication with market on this issue? Thank you.
Well, it's hard for me to comment on which ones You've got the specific arguments wrong. Uh, You've probably seen it in the press enough various kinds of issues were actively discussed arguments, but first of all, it seems to me, is due to the fact that this decision undermined would be the basic principles of functioning international financial system. This obviously. Now, as for consideration of the mode of consideration of our claims, we actually petitioned about the closed mode, because it will be information must be provided that constitutes a banking secret. This, naturally. As for the progress of the consideration of the claim, we do not commenting usually, we don't comment on the progress consideration our lawsuits.
Thank you. Ah, colleagues, please, Natasha.
Ah, continuing the topic of Euroclear. and yours claim against this depository. The question is: Please tell me, how many Russians are there? wait there for almost 3 years in order to Euroclair stated that in Russia this This organization has assets of a large sum, more than 18 billion. And here's how Why did you have to wait so long? Thanks a lot.
Why did we file a lawsuit now and not earlier? which it will be appropriate to talk about later. Here. And what will happen next, how will it be? the court decision will be executed, it will be defined, as I already said, once again I want to emphasize, after the introduction court decisions into legal force.
Colleagues, please, I see Artem's hand. Last row.
Good afternoon, this is Artem, an investor. A We are now in such a situation that that we are seeing a slowdown in inflation, the rate cut cycle has already begun, but these are inflationary expectations are increasing. And in this light I want to know what's playing now a major role for the Bank of Russia in making a decision on the key rate. This the dynamics of this inflation or the dynamics inflationary expectations. And about assets a small addition. As a solution The European Union may impose an indefinite freeze affect the new exchange cycle frozen assets of investors? Thank you.
The answer to the second question is short. Obviously it doesn't help solving these issues. As for multidirectional inflation, question. Indeed, when they moving in different directions, this complicates the assessment of the situation. And it is much more difficult to draw conclusions about stability some trends than if they were co-directed. And it is around these divergent trends that you you ask, was there a significant part discussions at the board of directors between immutability, let's say, and for those who suggested taking a more decisive step. And now we believe that these high inflationary expectations, there are even some of them increase and especially in business, it is reaction to the expected increase in VAT, on indexing parameters housing and communal services, well, others one-time inflationary factors. And we we consider this to be significant persistent inflationary risk. And we are not just worried about rising inflation expectations, but that that they can gain a foothold on this at an elevated level. And with this, in that number, connected a restrained step in reducing the key rate. Here. And what else might be worth it? note that the sensitivity of our decisions or monetary policy to inflation expectations increase when that's exactly what they are, tall and anchored. That is inflation. in this situation, when anchored, high inflation expectations, inflation It can be much stronger, its acceleration may happen with a much higher probability on premature over-softening monetary policy than it was if we had inflationary expectations were anchored. So, yes, these we have to deal with divergent tendencies analyze, make decisions, and this conditioned determines this caution in our actions.
Thank you. And the next question is from Anastasia Murzinskaya, Izhevsk city, information Udmurtia agency. Please.
Good evening. And why at the key at a rate of 16%, banks give loans at 40% and higher? What is this connected with? Thank you.
Yes, this question always comes up. E that banks offer higher rates than ours key rate. Well, what needs to be said? Here? What to look for? such rates are indeed offered, but only to some, like before you and They said, eh, far from mas, not far from po mass credit products. And if take average rates, uh, in October, then they are on loans for enterprises they were somewhere in the range from 15 to 18% depending on the term. In this case, they pass in a separate line developers. their loans are covered by Iskrou and the rates there are around 10%. Here are the rates above 24%, we are analyzing this, it was provided less than 4% of corporate loans loans. Loans to the population, Naturally, it's more expensive for a period of six months or a year. deliveries 23%, over a year deliveries 17% in average. Ah, but the stakes are high, what with that? are they related? They are related to grades countries of the bank. Let's look at an example corporate loan. If the loan requests the company that stable sales, no over-indebtedness, low debt load, then he can count on lower rate than the company, who can barely make ends meet. corporate loans are sufficient big. You can see this in the market. bonds. If you look rating, it is now about 15%, 30%. That is a huge difference in profitability. The same differences can be and in loan rates. And the same thing, By the way, regarding loans for people. If we look, then also on mortgages We compare mortgages with credit cards. The betting rates vary.
Thank you, colleagues. Please, Anna, last row.
Good evening. Anna Gromova, block Annafinance. I have a question about a pro non-state pension funds. The NPF remuneration system consists of management fees, which are currently 0.6%, and success fees. 20-25%. Due to the fact that it is being invested state pension funds in conservative assets, don't you think? you, that the commission for success is strong is overstated and eats into the profitability of pensions savings of citizens are already low due to the fact that they are used conservative assets? Thanks a lot, happy New Year.
Thank you. Uh us non-state pension funds rewards. It's important, it's important how to approach it remuneration of state pension funds. It is important that it is balanced, created the right motivation. And what is correct? motivation? So that non-governmental pension funds invested funds into exactly those assets that bring the greatest benefit from the point of view in terms of profitability and risk management for future retirees. Therefore, on In fact, we have moved away from the model that was some time ago when reward actually did not depend on quality management. Since last year, how have you You're right, we have two parts. rewards. One for control, another for success. And the reward for success is tied to average profitability deposits, three-year deposits. It's like a benchmark, if the fund earns more and, accordingly, this is the reward more. The part that is related to management, it will be reduced by law from twenty seventh year after the NPF will complete adaptation to the new system. We We'll keep an eye on how this new one works a reward system is applied funds. If necessary, offer adjustments.
Thank you, colleagues. Please, Nikita.
Good afternoon. Mitrofanov Nikita, Telegram channel Economical. I have I recently had a baptism of fire. The first bond I bought was fell into default, corporate. And, Actually, I'm from this situation the question arose: how was it this year the risk of default has changed precisely in business segment compared to the past year? Has he grown up? And what are the expectations? default by the central bank? exactly not banking, namely the business segment next year. And in the context of business, I have such a small extra Question: Was there any idea regarding VAT? protect against this VAT at acquiring small businesses because they This is the first time they will encounter this VAT, and they they immediately take it into their expenses. They cannot generate purchase books, sales books, so that at least there it breaks even to leave or return from the budget as in large businesses or medium-sized businesses. Thank you.
Thanks a lot. First, about debts. We don't expect that it will be tough, either. monetary policy, it will lead to a systemic increase in problem loans. Yes, some defaults, they happen and at almost any time. We we are closely monitoring quality of corporate debt banks. And overall quality of service loans, despite the increase rates, despite the increased load, interest burden on companies, it remains high. We compare with historical meanings, it remains high, although the picture in different industries, She is really different. Inside There are borrowers from different industries. And in the loan portfolio is valid if We are parties to banks' loan portfolios look, there are more shares of the company, which the banks themselves belong to the yellow zone, which is which they observe. But here it is the most problematic share is the share problem loans, which are the fourth, We belong to the fifth category. She has grown by only 0.2% since the beginning of the year point. I already said up to 4%. This what is usually called the red zone. The situation is actually worse in small business sector, where from the beginning years the share of companies that are not able to servicing loans increased to 9.8%. And we have recommended to banks here that ease the burden on maintenance debt, to meet clients halfway, restructure loans, and we do not please create them, uh, appropriate reserves if there is a prospect of reaching e solvency. Uh, and, mm, I must say that for the small, medium-sized businesses, here is the second part the question was about taxes on acquiring, but This is more of a question for the government. And here it is as for small and medium-sized businesses, we have had this load since October the law on credit holidays came into force for small and medium-sized businesses, by which small and medium-sized companies can take advantage of the deferment even if revenue remained unchanged. Do you remember? such programs were used, they tied to revenue as a population income. And here's what we see, that for 2 By the month, the banks have already received enough a large number of applications, 17,000 applications and provide credit holidays within the framework of this law, but not only within the framework of this law. What is good about the law is that it forces and banks offer their own programs restructuring. We see that such a restructuring is taking place. And Of course, we must take into account that the reduction key rate, which, uh, in the baseline scenario we will continue to have, eh, it quickly tanocylates in the decrease interest expenses. Why fast? Because a significant part of the loan, in that among small and medium-sized businesses, they floating rates.
Colleagues, do you have any other questions? Yes, Please. Catherine,
Hello, Ekaterina Litova. statements. How, what do you think, why inflation rates in December, in the first week are so low, they make up only 0.5%, although many warned of a surge in ahead of the VAT increase? This is the first question. And second, how tall are you? assess the risks of a more significant slowdown in domestic demand and whether it is necessary will further stimulate it?
I'll ask Alexey Borisovich, Yes? Eh, well, let's wait for the numbers full month. We, uh, still have weeks, uh, not always, uh, exactly coincide with what is obtained by full month. But one of the explanations, the one that Ilzana already has today voiced that the company they don't really want to drag it over the end years of large warehouse stocks, because that then they will have to sell them with VAT 22% next year. And, accordingly, this is, so to speak, a reduction warehouses, this could be significant factor that influences prices in November and December. And this means if if so, then in this part the price dynamics will play back after we Let's move on to the end of the year. Therefore, for in order to draw conclusions about inflation in November-December, it's worth waiting for only the full December figures, but, It's probably worth looking at that too will happen in January-February. And in terms of demand dynamics, well, for now we see that the growth rate of the aggregate demand in the economy remains positive, because if it was if not, then we would have a negative GDP dynamics at the end of this year, and this is not happening.
Thank you. And the next question is from Vologda from Alexey Tretyakov, newspaper Red North. Please. Alexey,
Good evening. At one time it was preferential the mortgage was cancelled, including for in order to cool the market and stabilize housing prices. Meanwhile Real estate continues to rise in price. For example, in Vologda for a one-room apartment the apartment is already being offered for 4-5 million rubles. And even higher. Why does this happen? Thank you.
Thank you very much for your question. Situation varies greatly by region. And we see that there are regions where prices are this year they even decreased a little, but in in many regions they are significantly slowed down compared to previous year. For example, an indicative situation in Krasnodar region, which was traditionally considered one one of the most overheated from a market point of view housing in the regions. And uh prices there rose by 4.3% below inflation. By the way, in Vologda In the region as a whole, price growth was the same. And overall, on average across the country the rise in prices for primary housing slowed down compared to last year. Why do prices keep rising? Well, Firstly, demand remains significant. Because our program was shut down. preferential non-addressed mortgage, but family mortgage, it's also quite large-scale, Far Eastern. Other programs, they continue to operate. I I already said that people are more willing to take it market mortgage. E and Overall, the demand for housing remains quite high. so worthy. Uh, people are buying, By the way, apartments are not only available with a mortgage and on demand for housing. You can't watch only for mortgages. Eh, they take installments, the debt on housing installments is already reached one and a half trillion rubles. This too realized demand that is not reflected in the growth of mortgages. And, uh, so, what are the prices for housing under construction? are growing due to the revival of demand. We see it. Well, it really is noticeable. has become more lively compared to the end of the last year year and the first half of this year. What can be done to make prices rise? slower? Of course, it should also increase. labor productivity in itself housing sector. There shouldn't be such a price increase, which we have seen in previous years.
