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Mike Jr.
Co-founder of Floodgate, Floodgate

Pattern Breakers & the Future of Humanity with Mike Maples Jr.

🎥 Dec 05, 2025 📺 Love Conquers Fear ⏱ 96m 👁 125 views
What you’ll hear in this episode: How Mike Maples Jr., co-founder of Floodgate and early investor in Lyft, Twitter, and Twitch defines pattern breakers The art of spotting inflection points that change the future Why different beats better in entrepreneurship Lessons from missed opportunities—like Airbnb—and how pain becomes insight The shift from mass computation and mass connectivity to mass cognition What becomes scarce when intelligence itself becomes abundant Reflections on AI, consciousness, and the future of humanity Spiritual and philosophical perspectives on God, infinity, and human p...
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About Mike Jr.

In May 2026, Pastor Mike Jr. addressed a moment during a Sunday service at Rock City Church involving the praise team, which drew reactions from observers. Some said the worship leader should have followed the pastor’s lead, while others said Pastor Mike Jr. was right to let the worship continue. During the service, he encouraged congregants to shout "Do it again" and spoke about God "getting ready to make this last season make sense." In a sermon titled "Stop Existing — Start Living God’s Purpose for Your Life," Pastor Mike Jr. discussed the importance of knowing one's personal vision and purpose. He stated that people will not get excited about a leader's vision if they do not know their own vision. He also emphasized the need to pray for direction)Skip, noting that not every door presented is meant for a person. He said, "You cannot be so insecure that correction feels like rejection," and added, "A real friend may tell you something that hurts your feelings but heals your life."

Source: AI-verified profile updated from Mike Jr.'s recent appearances. Browse all interviews →

Transcript (156 segments)
M
Mike Jr.0:00
Better doesn't matter when it comes to startups. And I think you have to be different to make a difference. In the era of mass connectivity, what became abundant was no longer the transistor with the packet.
And now all of a sudden, communications bandwidth was becoming free. So as opposed to having software monopolies, you had network monopolies. And so to me, the interesting question in today's world is what will be scarce in a world of abundant cognition. I really think the nature of what makes us human has never been more important than right now.
AI helped me edit the email. It sounded better than I sounded. It was a better version of me. Did I have the same human connection with that person that I would have if I just composed a messy email? Sometimes it's good if your young son asks you about the stars at night rather than ask GBT. We're at the beginning of infinity of our knowledge and that all knowable things can be known by us. The only problems that can't be solved are those limited by physics.
H
Host1:02
Hey everyone, welcome back to the Love Conquers Fear podcast. As I said in the last episode, I'm on the road in San Francisco. This is the week of TED AI. Not the first time I'm attending that. Big TED fan. Go every year. And actually, as of this recording, Chris Anderson just announced that Saw Khan is now taking over TED. So that's really, really big news. I think Sawhan's going to do an amazing job with that. I've been on a big reading journey to prepare for the interview you're about to see. I just reread Jonathan Livingston Seagull, which I had initially read to one of our children a long time ago. An amazing, amazing book. And we'll get into that today because my guest, it's one of his favorite books. He's actually the one that told me about it in the first place. I also just finished Into the Magic Shop by James Dodim. And I didn't realize when I started it that he is a two-lane medical school grad. That's where our oldest daughter goes to school and she's a junior there. And it's an amazing, amazing book. I can't recommend it more. I teared up multiple times reading the book. It's basically about James or Jim growing up and having a really, really tough childhood. Alcoholic father, abusive parent, his mom trying to kill herself. Just horrible, horrible circumstances. And he goes into this magic shop which is owned by this gentleman Neil and his mom happens to be there, Neil's mom, and her name is Ruth and she takes a liking to Jim and decides to mentor him on what she calls real magic. And the real magic that she teaches him is how to gain control over his mind and how to radiate love from his heart and how to manifest and visualize what he wants in his life. And he achieves unbelievable things in his life until he has a really hard crash and realizes the secrets of the heart. And I just can't recommend it enough. Amazing book. I wish he was alive today. After reading it, I immediately looked up how to reach out to him and I found out that he actually passed away unfortunately on July 16th of this year. But he was most recently at Stanford University running a center that he and the Dalai Lama actually co-founded together. And what a beautiful human being. I can't recommend it enough. It was recommended to me by a friend. And the other thing is that the Telepathy Tapes is back and so season 2 is on now and once again covers non-local consciousness, which this is happening a lot. So as I mentioned in a prior episode, Dan Brown's newest book, of course he wrote The Da Vinci Code, is about non-local consciousness. It's a novel of course. And Michael Pollan's new book is coming out in February. It's also about consciousness and the nature of consciousness. And I mentioned on episode one that Annaka Harris, who is Sam Harris's wife, wrote a book on consciousness called Lights On, and the final chapter that consciousness is fundamental, which is another way of saying non-local consciousness. And so this really seems to be the year that this is hitting a tipping point and people are really starting to dig into near-death experiences and all types of forms of non-local consciousness. I just heard a mind-blowing story when I was in New York City, not someone that was on the podcast, and I'll keep their name confidential, but it was the eighth near-death experience story that I heard, and it really blew my mind. And it's someone that I've known for two decades and never told me about it. So me doing this podcast as well as saying that I've read and love books like Proof of Heaven by Eben Alexander, it's really leading to more people opening up to me that prior would have been afraid of being written off as too woo. And these are amazing experiences that have happened in their life that they describe as the ultra real, more real than the reality we're in right now. And I personally have not had a near-death experience. I don't wish to have a near-death experience, but you just can't write off the fact that eight of your friends have had experiences like this that transform their lives and they describe as one of the most important experiences, maybe the most important experience of their life, to ultimately get them on a much better track and really make them realize the value of life and the value of living life from the heart and radiating as much love and help as possible for our fellow human beings as well as the animals on this earth. So definitely check those out. I listened to episode one of the Telepathy Tapes season 2 and I can tell you it does not disappoint. And it actually starts out with Eben Alexander who wrote Proof of Heaven and Eben is actually going to be staying at her home in February and is speaking at a few events in Austin. And I'm going to have him on the podcast then. One of my favorite books of all time and his second book, The Map of Heaven, is just incredible. So, I'm very happy to be here with Mike Maples Jr.
M
Mike Jr.6:58
Floodgate. Yeah.
H
Host6:59
Should be fun.
M
Mike Jr.7:00
Yes. I just first of all want to thank you for believing in me for a long time. I'll never forget when you reached out to me. It was in the first year of Bizarre Voice and I think you found out about it through Austin Ventures.
H
Host7:16
Yep.
M
Mike Jr.7:17
And you reached out to me and said, 'Hey, you might have a Thunder Lizard on your hands.' And wanted to invest. And that was one of the best decisions I made. Because you really helped a lot. And one of the most special things that happened at Bizarre Voice is you and Josh Koffman and Julie at the time Allegro, now your wife Julie Maples, Steve Katz coming to town and having strategy meetings with me. And some of the biggest ideas for Bizarre Voice came out of that, including the fact that we started to sell to the brands and the brands and retailers started to generate a network effect for the business and that was the number one thing people cared about on our IPO road show. So, just first want to say thank you.
Well, hey, it was fun to be along for the ride. I appreciate just being included.
H
Host8:05
Yeah. Well, it's a beautiful office here and we're here in a beautiful...
M
Mike Jr.8:10
Partly because of you, Mark.
H
Host8:13
And there's thunder lizards everywhere.
M
Mike Jr.8:15
Yes, indeed.
H
Host8:16
So, I want to talk a bit about Pattern Breakers to start out. I love this book and I wrote a pretty long essay on it.
M
Mike Jr.8:26
Yeah, thanks for that by the way. That was awesome.
H
Host8:28
You bet. I mean, I compared it to books like Good to Great or The Innovator's Dilemma. I think it's one of the most important books that an entrepreneur can get and I just want to talk about that to open up. So, tell me what a pattern breaker is. I could say it, but it's going to be best coming from you and how do you spot the inflection point that a pattern breaker is ultimately going to exploit?
M
Mike Jr.8:56
Yeah. So, my view is that there's two types of companies. The first type is what most people talk about which is a better version of what already exists. And I think that better doesn't matter when it comes to startups. I think you have to be different to make a difference. So what do I mean by that? If everybody's selling apples, you don't want to be a 10 times better apple. You want to be the world's first banana.
H
Host9:24
And you want to talk to only the people who value the advantages of bananas.
M
Mike Jr.9:28
And so that to me is why startups exist. The startup capitalist is a different kind of capitalist. They don't show up by being better. They show up by changing the subject. And the reason the world needs startups is they need occasionally to have a different subject. We need to have a different conversation about the future. And so what I realized was that a lot of the best practices for entrepreneurship weren't really oriented towards that. They kind of said assume you have the idea for what it is now go execute get customers get product market fit but people didn't ask the question upstream of it what ideas are pattern breaking in the first place and what ideas are incremental improvements to what already is.
H
Host10:12
Yeah.
M
Mike Jr.10:12
So that was kind of the book and then the inflections were basically the weapon that the founder has to wage asymmetric warfare on the present. So, business is never a fair fight. The only question is who gets to fight unfair, right? And in the default, the incumbent's going to fight unfair because they have all the advantages of the incumbency. And so, what I realized was that an inflection was something that a startup could use to bend the arc of the present to a radically different future. And rather than show up in the incumbent sandbox, create their entire new sandbox and define how the rules of competition were governed right within their own realm. So that was really the kind of the idea with the inflections and what I used to think was that the entrepreneurs who win are the ones who execute better, who hire better, and operate better. And there's some truth to that for sure, but some ideas are just better. And like sometimes you'll see the same founder with one idea after the next and one idea just works better because it was a better idea, right? And so I wanted to get more clear about why I thought that was and what I was hoping to do is help founders decide, hey, is this idea worth it? Is it worth my trouble and my time? Is this the best thing I could be doing right now?
H
Host11:31
Yeah.
M
Mike Jr.11:32
Yeah. And it's funny because I have a lot of companies that want to pitch you and I always ask them have they read Pattern Breakers and how are they a pattern breaker in the first place.
H
Host11:44
Yeah.
And you give the example in the book you backed Lyft and one of the examples is the inflection point of GPS now being embedded in the iPhone so that people could actually do something like summon a stranger to come pick them up.
M
Mike Jr.12:01
Yeah. And so like a lot of people I think listening to this would agree that why now is an important question in startups. But what always bugged me until about 10 years ago is I was like that's true but it's a little bit of a tautology. And so I thought okay how do you get your mind around why now? And what I started to realize is that the inflection was how? So like for example you could have had the idea for ride sharing before the iPhone 4S. It wouldn't have mattered because you couldn't have implemented it. You wouldn't have been able to get riders and drivers to locate each other with an algorithm. But now all of a sudden the iPhone 4S ships and it has that GPS chip in it and you can locate people with an API call. So now all of a sudden the inventory of human capacities changed. And so what the Lyft founders did though was something important. You know that change existed with or without. What the founders do is they convert that inflection into an insight. You know, they come up with a better way to explain what reality could be. And the inflection is what gives them the power to create that new reality that couldn't exist before. So why is it the why now? Well, the day before the iPhone 4S, you couldn't have implemented it. But if you wait too long until after the iPhone 4S, it'll be obvious. And so there's this Goldilocks moment, this window of time, this turning point. And that's why I called it the inflection. I thought, okay, there's a it's kind of like in math when the derivative of the curve changes at a point. I was kind of like, that's kind of what's happening here. And so that then helped me start to understand that's why these startups happen and that's why some of them break free is because they're using a set of powers that most people aren't using.
H
Host13:49
Yeah. You know, and I'm a big fan of TED and I'll never forget when Bill Gross gave his TED talk.
M
Mike Jr.13:55
Yeah.
H
Host13:56
And he analyzed hundreds of companies that they backed at Idea Lab. I remember incubated and do you remember what he said the number one factor was?
M
Mike Jr.14:05
I think he said timing number one is number one, teams execution number two, ideas, novelty number three.
H
Host14:11
Yeah. So timing and inflection point really are kind of very much the same thing.
M
Mike Jr.14:18
Yeah.
H
Host14:18
How do you think about Facebook, with all the predecessors that came before it, like Friendster and MySpace and why Facebook? Like why was that timing better?
M
Mike Jr.14:30
Yeah. I think well, I think that there were a set of things. I think that first of all, I think that Facebook really did focus on college and it was a very good niche to own. And so, I think that in the early innings, it's paradoxical, but what you want to do is dominate what seems to be a too small of a niche on your way to finding the adjacent possible, right? So, at the time, I talked to Peter Thiel about this one time. He's like, 'Okay, I backed LinkedIn with Reed because that's the one for professionals. This will be the one for colleges.' And so, that's kind of how it seemed at the time, right? But I think that Zuck also had some advantages. Part of it's related to inflections but part of it is he was living in the future. He was living at Harvard. He was a millennial before there were any millennial leaders. He grew up in a world where computers were cheap and commoditized whereas not everybody had. And so he also had a lived experience that was really different from those other guys. Yeah. And so I think he was the right place, right time, right future, right product.
H
Host15:37
Yeah. I don't think that anybody could have predicted that he would be at dinner with President Trump a couple of weeks ago saying that he's going to spend $600 billion dollars on an AI data center the size of Manhattan by 2028. That going from the niche of colleges to that is quite extraordinary.
M
Mike Jr.15:59
Yeah. And I think also occasionally you just get these outlier personality types. Bill Gates was this way. I think Zuckerberg's this way. You get some people who just have a level of determination that has an extra gear to it, right? And I think Zuck has that for sure.
H
Host16:16
Yeah.
M
Mike Jr.16:16
Yeah.
H
Host16:17
You know, with Bizarre Voice, I can tell you that people thought that Brandt and I were insane to leave Core Metrics and start it. And it was hard to leave the company that I'd founded. But I knew it was in good hands. I knew it was going to be on a path to an exit. And I felt like I had accomplished what I meant to accomplish. It was profitable and I saw this inflection point of social and I saw that social would impact e-commerce in a big way. And the reason we named the company Bizarre Voice is it's named after chapter 4, the Cluetrain Manifesto. And Bizarre Voice started in 2005. That book was written in 1999. Kind of amazing. It's a great book.
M
Mike Jr.17:00
Yeah.
H
Host17:01
Still I know that you have a background in marketing. I would say to anybody listening to this, it is the best chapter in my opinion of any book I've ever read on marketing. Chapter 4, the Cluetrain Manifesto. You can get it for free online. But people really thought we were crazy. And a lot of VCs passed because they thought it was crazy. And in your book, Pattern Breakers, you talk about that that actually is common, that people are going to think you're crazy. And the key is to find people that are the true believers versus the consensus people that are going to grind you down. As Guy Kawasaki said in The Art of the Start, it's like, don't let the bastards beat you down. That was the way he talked about it.
M
Mike Jr.17:45
And when you think about it, at first it seems counterintuitive, but then it makes sense. So like there's two ways to think about the future. You can think about the future as an extension forward from the present. And that's what most people do. They forecast. And if that's true, then tomorrow is going to look similar to today. And if that's true, then the ideas that are going to work are going to be consensus ideas, improvements on what exists. But let's say you believe that the future is going to be radically different than the present. Well, then by definition, the future isn't going to resemble the present. By definition, it's going to be radically different. And so, most people tend to like how things are. They get comfortable with their current set of beliefs and they don't like it when you mess with their heads. And so, if your idea is sufficiently radical to change the future, most people should dislike the idea, right? Like human beings are conditioned to like things. And so if everybody likes your idea, it's too similar to what they know. And so the best ideas I've seen polarize people. There's a set of people who say either this is me or I don't care or this sucks even. They're hostile to it, right? But there's a subset of people who are just like, I've seen the light. I can't unsee it. Where have you been all my life? This is amazing. That's the place you want to be when you're a startup, right? And you're trying to spend your time only with those people who are prepared to believe what you believe, right? So I like to say that people don't buy from startups for practical reasons because most startups go out of business. People buy from startups for aesthetic reasons. They buy because they believe what the founder believes. They can't unsee it. They feel called to co-create that different future with the founder. And so, the opinions of the people who aren't prepared to believe don't matter. It turns out only the opinions of the people who are prepared to believe matter because they're going to lead you to the promised land. They're going to help you figure out what's missing in the future. Whereas everybody else is going to try to bend you back to the present. They're going to try to get you to think conventional thoughts about the unconventional.
H
Host19:54
Right.
M
Mike Jr.19:54
Yeah.
H
Host19:54
And you know, I didn't know you back in the Core Metrics days, but I can tell you a lot of people passed on that too because I was espousing a term that didn't exist. I didn't have any terminology to relate to it. But with Core Metrics, it was one of the first software as a service companies. And I was when I was pitching, I was trying to get VCs to understand something that they could relate it to. I was like this like mainframes and dumb terminals or clients and servers, that I can update the software anytime I want. I can wrap services around it to make sure the customer is successful. It'll constantly be able to learn from the customer network. So, we'll be some of the smartest guys in the room in terms of seeing what patterns work as they roll out different campaigns and try different merchandising promotions, etc. But I can tell you a lot of people weren't buying it and they were like, 'Wait, hold on. You're not shipping a CD and isn't that higher margin? And aren't the services costs going to eat you alive?' And yeah, and it was actually when I saw Benioff present. He was presenting at Stanford. I'm not a Stanford grad. But I was there attending his presentation. And there were only 80 people and he was talking about the end of software and I picked up a lot of my language from him because he was very non-consensus at the time. Like a lot of people including Larlesson thought he was an idiot back then.
M
Mike Jr.21:25
Yeah, it's interesting. So Benioff illustrates this perfectly. I like to say when you're a founder you have a choice. You can use comparison language or pattern breaking language. If you so comparison language was application service providers, right? You remember people talked about ASPs or...
H
Host21:44
That term came along. I was so happy at Core Metrics. I was like finally have something to get a shorthand to it.
M
Mike Jr.21:51
But what Benioff got so right was Benioff says you know what I'm just going to refuse the premise of how people think about software. So he says he has a slogan that says no software. And he compares the cloud with on-prem. And so he didn't say we're like enterprise hosted software, right? He was saying look the old way of doing enterprise software is intellectually bankrupt. He just refused the very premise of it. And so I like to say to a founder you want to have language that can't be compared to what exists before because otherwise you're just not different enough. So who got this right recently? Figma. So like Dylan could have said, we're like Sketch but in a browser. But what he realized was that the power was to say, you know what, everybody thinks that design is a solo act. You create the design and hand it to developers. I think design should be multiplayer. And so he creates this demo where there's a canvas and then five cursors show up at once. And you just instantly saw what his heretical new belief was. But it's more than just about the product. It's about how do you describe it and do you introduce new language? And it's riskier because it's easier to explain something relative to what somebody knows. But you're also making a subconscious choice to compete within the framework of the rules that incumbents already set. Yeah. And so the risk is worth it when you look at the rewards of defining a new category and being the only instead of being the best. And Benioff really did this well. His languaging was superb.
H
Host23:37
Yeah.
M
Mike Jr.23:37
You know what Benioff understands is that language is like code for the human mind. And so just like software runs on a computer, if I say to you a certain word, your mind is going to very quickly judge that word. It's either going to say, 'It's similar to what I've heard before.' In which case, it's going to put you in a container that it already has and compare you with what's in the container. Or it's going to say, 'Never heard that word. I'm going to suspend disbelief for a second and consider whether I'm willing to buy into that premise or not.' Most people won't. But the people who are prepared to believe what you believe are more likely to say, 'Ah, that person just put voice to my inner knowing.' That person just said something I kind of knew in my bones, but they just described it in a way that hits different. That's my kind of peeps.
H
Host24:29
Yeah, totally. And one of the companies which I really charted the rise of during the Bizarre Voice years was Netflix. And one of the books that was really foundational, you read lots of books at the beginning of Bizarre Voice, was Fred Reichheld's book The Ultimate Question. And that's the book where he invented the net promoter score, which a lot of people use. But one of the concepts in that book was the concept of bad profits. And you may remember when Netflix launched, they had one marketing slogan and they only needed one. Do you remember what it was?
M
Mike Jr.25:04
No, I don't.
H
Host25:05
The end of late fees.
M
Mike Jr.25:06
Okay.
H
Host25:07
And it brought back all those bad profit emotions of like suffering at Blockbuster. And I literally had to do the walk of shame, because when Deborah and I got married, I had $1,000. She had $2,000. So if I actually held on to that damn DVD to the point where I had to pay like 40 bucks to return this thing. That was their slogan. It was just the end of late fees and they ran away with the market and it was the demise of Blockbuster. But I charted the rise in a four-part series on the Bizarre Voice blog. Well, and the other thing they got right is they announced the end of something that Blockbuster couldn't announce the end of.
M
Mike Jr.25:47
That's right.
H
Host25:48
So, it was dependent on that.
M
Mike Jr.25:49
Yeah. It was counterposition to their business, right? So, if Blockbuster had reacted by getting rid of late fees, too, they're on a going out of business strategy because their whole margin came from that stuff.
H
Host26:01
That's right. That's right. And eventually they did have to do that. And you're right.
M
Mike Jr.26:05
Eventually, they were business. Their whole margin. I think there's actually a documentary I haven't seen it. It's called The Last Blockbuster and it was somewhere in Alaska, which I think the whole state has like 600,000 people. By the way, beautiful place. I don't know if you've been there, but an unbelievable vacation. The trains in Alaska are just amazing.
H
Host26:25
Yeah.
So, this also intersects with a mutual friend and this is someone who you kindly introduced me to, Christopher Lockhead, and one of the foundational books for us at data.world, which ServiceNow bought on 77, was Play Bigger and it's all about category creation. But I almost think those are Play Bigger and Pattern Breakers are like companion books in my mind.
M
Mike Jr.26:51
Yeah, Christopher and I are very sympatico, right? And so Lockhead has the best handle on what it means to create a new category of anybody I've known.
H
Host27:02
Oh, it's amazing.
M
Mike Jr.27:03
It's fantastic, right? And so Lockhead has a way of describing it very similar. You know, you want to force a choice and not a comparison. And you do that by it kind of goes back to what we were just talking about with the human mind. The human mind has a bunch of containers in it because the world is complicated. Like every day you drive up the road, you see logos from companies. You're just bombarded by stuff to consider. And so the human mind in order to make sense of a complex, noisy world creates patterns. Oh, Mercedes logo. I'll slot you into that luxury car container where the other luxury cars go. And so now when a new word comes, you have a choice. Do you want to fit in an existing container or do you want to persuade the person to create an entirely new container in their mind? And that's really what a category is. It's a new container. And so what Lockhead's basically arguing is that the category designer creates a new container, but it's not just about what you do to the product. It's about what you do to the mind of the person that you're selling to. You're trying to convince them using category defining language or pattern breaking language to allocate new space in their mind for a new reality that you occupy.
H
Host28:19
Yeah.
M
Mike Jr.28:20
And everything that he talks about flows from that, right? Like once you have that figured out, you have to define the transformation that occurs, the from to the to that this category represents. So I'm very aligned with his thinking on this stuff.
H
Host28:36
Yeah. I really appreciate him and I also appreciate him as a Jewish guy because he actually talked about category creation with Hamas. So when the deal was on the table for the hostages to come back, he talked about this is a category creation moment where Gaza can make a choice. And ultimately, he put out some of the best content out there on what the choice was. And thank goodness it actually happened and the hostages are back now.
M
Mike Jr.29:11
Yeah. The other...
H
Host29:12
Now Gaza can become like a Dubai if they want or they could become that. I mean, they could recreate their category.
M
Mike Jr.29:18
And Lockhead is just fearless, right? And so he just says whatever he thinks and he just lets it rip. And I love that about him, too, right? He lives what he preaches. Yes.
H
Host29:28
You know, he thinks that most marketing isn't courageous enough. Most people when they start a company, they say, 'I'm going to take this big risk.' But then when it's time to take a stand or pick a fight or use extreme enough language to show how different they are, they flinch because everybody around them is conspiring to get them to sound similar, right? But what happens in my opinion is when you sound similar, you fade into what I call the sea of sameness, right? And so, the Thunder Lizard startups refuse to be compared and they try to be a category of one. They try to be the only, not the best. And that's very much consistent with the category design kind of premise.
M
Mike Jr.30:09
Yeah. Well, I love him and he's definitely helped me a lot. And I'm sure he's going to be a lifelong friend and I'll start with him on whatever's next in terms of I start. And he's also interesting in the sense that he talks about different things you can categorize around. So like for example, Floodgate could say we're a seed fund. That's the type of fund that we're in. We could say that we back Thunder Lizards, the type of company that we back, but we could also say that we focus on prime movers, right, which is the type of founder that we try to back. And so what you realize is that you don't have to just categorize around a market like CRM. You pick the thing that you want to categorize on the product, the market, the mission of the company. Tesla categorized around bringing sustainable energy to the world and the prior way of categorizing was the car industry, right? And so there are different ways that you can categorize and sometimes one approach is more effective than others depending on how you want to show up in the world.
H
Host31:21
Yeah.
One thing that I wanted to cover if you don't mind is that Benjamin Franklin said pain is instructive.
M
Mike Jr.31:29
Yes. And certainly, suffering as a teacher. And I think one of your motivations in writing this book is the miss of Airbnb. And when I put out a tweet several years ago, I was like, 'What was the big one that you all miss that you really regret?' You responded with Airbnb.
H
Host31:46
That's easy. Yeah.
M
Mike Jr.31:48
And I love that story because I've heard you tell that story, but for the audience, just tell the story of the setup of going into their apartment and thinking someone's going to die here.
H
Host31:57
Well, so it was funny because Michael Seibel, who was one of the guys at Justin.tv at the time, introduced them to me. Keep in mind, he didn't think they were ready to apply to YC yet. So he was an adviser, and I don't think Michael even had stock in the company, right? So he's just trying to help these guys out, right? The prior week, Ann and I met with this company called Mojo Mix, and they sold cereal online. So you go online, you pick out the ingredients of your cereal, it assembles them in a box and ships you a cereal box. And so we get done with this meeting and Ann says to me, 'Why did you agree to take this meeting? This is a waste of time. We're not in this business. We got no business doing this.' So I said, 'Okay, that's fair, I guess.' So a week later comes by and we walk into the conference room and it's a room full of cereal boxes. It's Captain Obama O's and Captain McCain Crunch. And Ann sort of looks at me like, 'What the hell, Maples?' And run a cereal company. So I was already on the defensive. And Brian says, 'Hey, we're funding the company so far by selling these cereal boxes. It costs $30 each. Do you want one?' And that was my first mistake. I declined that offer.
M
Mike Jr.33:14
So it's like a Girl Scout cookie.
H
Host33:17
Yeah. And it's not really confident. 'Hey, we haven't been able to raise money, so we're funding it by selling the cereal boxes.' Right.
M
Mike Jr.33:24
Right.
H
Host33:24
So then he says, 'Hey, why don't we just show you the product?' I'm like, 'Great.' And he says, 'Michael says that you prefer demos over slides.' I said, 'That's exactly right.' So he tries to fire up the site. He can't get it to work. So for some reason, it was crashing, right? And so I'm like, 'Okay, well, let's just do the slides then.' And he's like, 'Well, I didn't bring any slides.' Right? So we're like 20 minutes into this meeting. We were just looking at each other in a room full of cereal boxes. And unfortunately, I didn't have the presence of mind. At the time, there was this thing called CouchSurfing.com that had a similar product that they were giving away that Benchmark had just funded. They weren't really going anywhere. And I thought, 'How is somebody not going to get killed in one of these things?' It was around the time of the Craigslist killer and all this other stuff. And so I just didn't see it.
M
Mike Jr.34:19
Well, I didn't realize that part of the story. So literally that's also grafted in your mind because that's just happened.
H
Host34:24
So I just didn't see it. And the meeting was so discombobulated that I didn't understand that his real insight was around trust. And I should have known this even with what became Bizarre Voice, right? Like I should have known that people online and networks could be a substitute for the trust that is normally accorded to a brand like a hotel operation. But also, basically it was just a WordPress site on steroids. It was really early. I mean, it was even before Facebook Connect came out, which had a big impact on their success. But I just didn't see it. And as one thing led to another, it became this gigantic business. But I committed myself for the next several years to understand, 'Okay, what did I miss on that one?' Not to let myself off the hook for just being unlucky, but to say, 'Okay, there was something I needed to understand that I didn't understand.'
M
Mike Jr.35:28
Right. And that is something that makes you unique because a lot of people when they have a painful miss like that, they don't want to revisit it. They would just rather pretend like it didn't happen instead of dissecting it and finding out what they missed. And that eventually led to this book.
H
Host35:48
Yeah. And I mean, fortunately, when Lyft says, 'Hey, we're going to let people share a ride in a stranger's car,' I'll take that bait. I'll take a walk on that wild side. And so our minds were much more prepared to receive the insight that time. And if only the meeting had been set up a little different, you never know if the circumstances had been different, might we have seen it? Hard to say.
M
Mike Jr.36:17
Yeah. One of the misses for me, I'll never forget, I was sitting around a table and I was making the case that Bitcoin was total... I was saying, 'There's no way the governments are going to let this grow. It's not backed by a taxable base, etc.' And people were encouraging me, 'Just put something in it.' I think it was like at $10 or something of Bitcoin. They were like, 'Just trust me on this one.' And I missed it, but I did rectify that. I was one of the first investors alongside Josh Bar and Multicoin, actually thanks to Josh. Nicely done. It's my best ever fund investment. But everybody remembers the ones they missed, and I think what you shared is Airbnb would have been 7,000 times your money or something.
H
Host37:05
Yeah, that hurts. There's been a few. We've done just fine, Mike. We've had some good ones. If we'd said no to Twitter and Twitch and Lyft and Okta and some of these, I'd be apoplectic.
M
Mike Jr.37:19
I don't know if you'd be in business.
H
Host37:20
I wouldn't be in business. Yeah. But what I learned is a lot of what matters in my business is if you see a lot of the really good ones, you're always in the game, right? They're always crazy, right? This is what people don't get. The ones that are worth funding are like capitalist mutations, and they look wild and they make you uncomfortable in some way most of the time. So you're going to get a bunch of them wrong. What matters is the magnitude of how right you are on the occasion that you're right. And so that's the thing that I've just kind of come to learn in a very humbling, painful way over time. And part of that, you've got to have grit to have luck. But one of the things I always remind people is there are lots of people in America that have grit. There's people that are working multiple manual labor jobs. But you do also have to have luck. And when that luck lines up and you hit one where it literally just knocks the ball out of the park.
M
Mike Jr.38:25
Yeah. I mean, that does feel like it's not dumb luck. But I can tell you that Deborah and I are investors in 149 startups now. We've been doing it for 15 years, and 12 of them have become unicorns, and we were in the seed round. But I could not at all tell you which ones would be unicorns when you invested.
H
Host38:47
If you'd known, you would have only done 12.
M
Mike Jr.38:49
Correct. That's right. Yeah. And of course, quite a few of them went out of business, too. It's interesting because the thing that you realize is that you need to be paid for the risk you took. And so there are a lot of companies that I look at that I'm like, 'I can see that this will succeed.' But I have to have a chance of making at least 100 times more money if it succeeds, because otherwise I can't justify the risk, right? And so I need to eliminate a set of opportunities that, as impressive as they might be on the surface, don't meet my risk profile. But I'm not focused on the probability of success. I'm focused on the expected value of success. So I would take a 10% chance at 100x all day long. But what I've learned is that most people wouldn't take any upside for a 10% chance. And so, if I do that, I'm really buying an underpriced future. I'm buying an underpriced, very risky future, right? So I look at it like I'm basically making a bunch of 10% chance at 100 times my money kinds of bets. And if I can be good at that, I can still be pretty good. And venture capital is a very personal type of investing. The reason why is because you know these founders from the beginning. And so you really can see someone go from almost no wealth, maybe no wealth at all, to becoming a pretty legendary entrepreneur. And that to me is the biggest high of all.
H
Host40:32
It's pretty fun. And it's interesting. Not long ago, I was talking to David Deutsch, who's this famous physicist who wrote 'The Beginning of Infinity,' and he was telling me that when he would be solving a physics problem, he almost gets a high in his mind about the anomaly and about the contradiction. It's like a dopamine hit. And he almost feels bad when he solves it. It's almost like, 'Oh man, I don't get to enjoy that sleuthing thing anymore.' And I've got to say that one thing I think people don't fully appreciate about it is, for me, the journey is a lot more fun. Like when Bizarre Voice had an exit, I was like, 'That's great,' but I was like, 'I might not get to work with Brett again.' That kind of sucks, right? Or when Ngmoco got bought by DeNA, or when Okta went public, or all these things. And so the fun time you remember about it was when the journey was happening, not what the exit was or how big it was. I mean, that's a great reward to get, don't get me wrong, but it's the 'Are we going to pull this off?' phase of things that's the fun part for me.
M
Mike Jr.41:47
Yeah, I totally agree. And in the first book I wrote, 'Entrepreneur's Essentials,' there's a chapter, I think it's chapter 15 or so, but it basically is all about the journey. So take a lot of photos along the way. And the most popular presentation of all at Bizarre Voice were all the photos from us being a tiny company to the big milestones. And just taking the time as a founder to document that. The most popular channel at data.world was the history channel on Slack, because we had literally the text that I shot my co-founders on: 'Hey, do you want to brainstorm? I'm ready to get back in the arena.' And just seeing that journey play out, it really is what life is all about.
H
Host42:36
Yeah. And you realize that deciding what problems to work on is not just a question of, 'Do I think it's going to be a big outcome if it works?' but 'Am I going to enjoy the time that I spent working on the problem?' Right? And I think that's the more important part of it. Because everybody I know who's had one of these really big outcomes really enjoyed the journey of working on the problem, even though it wasn't necessarily a great job to have. Being a founder is a really hard job, as you know. But it's funny, you talked about how you started Bizarre Voice when you were at Coremetrics. I imagine there was a part of you that didn't feel like it was a choice. It's like you become called and drawn to some new problem. And it's like you're going to find a way to work on that problem, and you're going to reverse engineer the justification of why you're going to work on it. But it's like, 'I'm doing this.' And so, 'I must do.'
M
Mike Jr.43:33
Yeah. And it's like, 'Okay, I can pretend that I'm making an objective decision and weigh the pros and cons, but my guess is you kind of knew already, right? You just needed permission in your own mind to do it.
H
Host43:44
Yes. No, that's a great way to say it. You do need, especially if you're a founder at your own startup, you do need to give yourself permission. And that actually is pretty hard because it is a bit like a marriage, or a baby really. I mean, I don't want to infantilize it, but it's like you're giving birth to something. And you're ultimately the parent trying to help it grow. And then it has a soul, and the soul is the collective of the company and all the people in it. And you can feel it. You can really feel whether or not it has a soul. But it's funny because a lot of times I'll get asked by somebody, 'Do you think I should pursue this idea?' And I'll say, 'If you have to ask me, the answer is no.' Right? Because the best ideas, the ones that are worth pursuing, you can't not do it. You'll do it even if you can't raise the money, even if you have no line of sight to raise the money. Those are the problems worth chasing, because those are the ones that you care enough about to overcome all the impossible obstacles that you'll face.
M
Mike Jr.44:49
Yep. Yeah. Sure.
H
Host44:50
Yeah. So let's shift for a second and talk about this inflection point of inflection points, in my opinion, the AI inflection point. Technology tends to be combinatorial. Sometimes there are truly novel breakthroughs, but everything tends to build on itself. And this moment kind of caught me a little bit off guard. When I first used ChatGPT, my co-founder and CTO at data.world had early access to OpenAI's API, so he was using very early versions of this. But November 30th, 2022, I'll never forget logging in, being one of the first users of ChatGPT. And I knew that everything changed at that moment. And as of this recording, we're just over a thousand days since it launched. And just to mark this moment in time, because I like to look at this moment compared to historical moments: when President Trump announced on January 21st of this year, 2025, the Stargate Project alongside Masayoshi Son, Sam Altman, and Larry Ellison, that was $500 billion of funding. And I looked it up at the time because I was like, 'That seems like a lot of money.' But it's also a little bit warped because we had come out of the pandemic and there were trillions and trillions of dollars spent. So people forget how much money that is. And it's more money, inflation-adjusted, $500 billion, than we spent on the Manhattan Project to win World War II versus the Nazis. And it's more money, inflation-adjusted, than we spent on the space race versus the Russians to make sure we didn't cede control of space as a strategic asset. And we are so far past $500 billion right now. I mean, there was the UAE deal, I think that was reported to be around $4.5 trillion. There was the White House dinner just recently where they went around the table, Tim Cook, Sam Altman, all of these guys there. That was over $2 trillion of pledging towards this race. And my personal opinion is it's happening for two reasons: one is hope. I think that there's something in our human spirit that we can viscerally see, like, 'Wow, this time this could really manifest an age of abundance for all.' But I think it's also fear. It's this fear of, 'If China gets AGI before us, it's all over for us. If we get AGI before them, etc.' And so I think that both things can be true at the same time. It's both hope and fear. And I'm just curious, with you in the thick of it, sitting here in Silicon Valley right next to Stanford, what do you make of this moment?
M
Mike Jr.47:52
Yeah. Well, we talked about inflections a bit ago. So to me, an inflection is like a wave, and as an entrepreneur, you're like a surfer trying to pick the right wave. And so the idea of pattern breakers was the wave you pick matters, and you wait for the right one and surf it to the promised land. But occasionally what you get is what I call a sea change. This is a tsunami. A sea change is when all of the waves change direction at the same time. And so the first sea change that happened in my life was the PC revolution, the era of mass computation. And then the second was in the early '90s with mass connectivity and the internet. And I like to say that this is mass cognition, the sea change of mass cognition. Why does that stuff matter to me? Well, in mass computation, computation became awesomely abundant when it had been scarce before. And so now all of a sudden, it wasn't just a few hundred computers in the world. Everybody had one on their desk in their home. And what's interesting is everybody always initially gets excited about the new driver of the abundance. People are interested in the disc drive companies and in the PC companies and all that stuff. But what I'm interested in is what becomes scarce when the new thing becomes abundant. So with computers, it was software. Software used to be the thing you gave away with the mainframes. But then all of a sudden when there's a computer everywhere and everybody's got one, how do you make these things useful to normal people? You need software. And so that was the rate limiter. In the era of mass connectivity, what became abundant was no longer the transistor, it was the packet. And now all of a sudden communications bandwidth was becoming free. What were the valuable companies? They were the companies that aggregated lots of people into networks and got data about those people, became the system of record, created network effects among those people. So as opposed to having software monopolies, you had network monopolies. And so to me, the interesting question in today's world is what will be scarce in a world of abundant cognition? Because what people talk about in the press and on Twitter, and even what we were just talking about now, is the investment in the inputs, the input drivers of material abundance: more GPUs, more data centers, more hyperscalers, more of all that. But the question I like to ask is, let's assume that all of those people succeed at basically making the inference unit free. What will become newly scarce in that world? That's not so obvious to me. And so that's what I'm really most interested in right now. Is what becomes rare in a world where cognition becomes abundant, where intelligence itself becomes approaching free?
Right. Right. Well, what's your current thesis on that?
H
Host51:01
Hard to say. I mean, most of what we've done so far has been related to highly multidisciplinary ideas. So we invested a few years ago in a company called Applied Intuition that makes software to simulate autonomous vehicle miles and to help all the big car companies become software-defined. And so if you're Porsche or General Motors or one of these big car companies, you look at a Tesla and it's just fundamentally different architecture for a car. It's basically a computer with wheels and GPUs and AI and sensors, right? And that's not what an ICE vehicle is. An ICE vehicle is a bajillion supply chain partners coming together, mostly about marketing and brand. So they have to redefine what their product is. And the Applied Intuition guys have a bunch of people from Waymo and Tesla and Zoox and all these good companies. And so they can look across the table from somebody like a Porsche or a GM and ask for hundreds of millions of dollars, because they alone can help take that company to the promised land. So most of my investing in AI so far has been that type of company, where they have some type of an enterprise value proposition that you can't get by just being a wrapper on top of these models, where you have to have a mix of AI knowledge and industry knowledge. Like Kasser and Unnice and Peter, the co-founders, had spent their childhoods in Detroit, and Kasser went to General Motors Institute and worked at GM. So they were made in Detroit before they went to Silicon Valley and hung out at Google and Waymo. So I've been liking ideas like that. But the broader question is kind of more of a human question in some ways. In a world where Descartes said, 'I think, therefore I am,' that was a statement about what it means to be human. But what happens if thinking is abundant and plentiful and ubiquitous and it flows like electricity? What does it mean even to be uniquely human? And what are the things that we need to be careful not to lose? Because people talk about AGI and it taking over the world, but that may be worrying about the wrong apocalypse. The apocalypse might be what happens if we lose who we are along the way.
M
Mike Jr.53:33
Yeah, I mean, that actually is one of the reasons I'm doing this podcast and writing the book, which is called 'Love Conquers Fear: Humanity, AI, and the Age of Abundance for All.' I really think the nature of what makes us human has never been more important than right now. Like, are we just biological machines and there's nothing special about us at all, and everything can be replicated by machines, and therefore we're going to have robots that are every bit as sentient as you and I are right now, that have the self-awareness we do? And I don't believe that. I think that there is something divine about us.
H
Host54:11
Yeah. And there are simple questions. The other day I hit send on an email where the AI helped me edit the email, and it sounded better than I sounded. It was a better version of me. It was a better answer to the question I got. But I got to thinking, in what ways is that not so great? So did I have the same human connection with that person that I would have if I just composed a messy email? Probably not. And so you start to say, 'Okay, part of what makes us human is our human connections.' And is AI in some cases going to make those human connections something that you think are sort of optional and tactical and avoidable? And I'm not sure that's always a good thing. Sometimes it is. But sometimes it's good if your young son asks you about the stars at night rather than ask ChatGPT about it. There are aspects of going outside and looking at the stars together that matter. So I think that there's a lot of subtlety to it as well. I wish David Foster Wallace was still alive, who wrote 'Infinite Jest,' because he talked about a lot of the things that technology and the culture allowed you to do was to spend your time on easy things to do that weren't good for you ultimately. So that weighs heavy on my mind these days.
M
Mike Jr.55:43
Yeah.
H
Host55:44
Yeah. One of my theses, and I'm starting to see a lot of companies like this, is that the neat thing about AI, the big opportunity, is you get to remake a lot of old industries. And I'm starting to see pitches in everything from remaking the lumber mill to retrofitting the railways. All of these things that literally have been left behind, and some of these revitalizing entire communities. One of the most inspirational pitches I saw recently is this guy, serial entrepreneur Tim Nunan, and he's retrofitting the rail lines that are made out of timber with recycled plastic, and 80% of his workforce are ex-prisoners. And he's giving them a second chance on life. He says that people are rushing out of big companies like Tesla, SpaceX, etc. to work for him. Like literally, people are already pretty wealthy. They're like, 'I don't even care how much money I make. I just want to be a part of this movement and really do something that matters for American infrastructure, that really revitalizes these communities.' And I'm seeing a lot of things like that. And that actually gives me hope. Those aren't things I think that will be easily replicated either. There's some real stickiness there in terms of focusing on a vertical that frankly a lot of people have forgot about.
M
Mike Jr.57:22
Yeah. So one of the things that I've been interested in, and if there's any entrepreneurs out there doing this, I'd be really curious. You get these situations where something unpredictable happens that radically alters the dynamic. So like the Great Financial Crisis would have been an example, or the COVID pandemic. And most people, when I talk to them about wanting to forecast something, they think about it as predicting the future. But what I've come to realize is that I don't believe you can predict the future. What I think you can do is have a better handle on the present. And so the way to prevent the Great Financial Crisis would have been to look at some assumptions you had about loans that were in a loan portfolio and realize that you knew things that weren't true. You knew things about their risk that just weren't true. And I find that when you think about most major discontinuous events, it's really a function of us believing things in the present that aren't true. Having hidden assumptions about the way that reality works that are a bad explanation of reality. And so I think that AI could be really good at that. Because AI could say, 'I'm just going to have these agents that run all the time, and they're going to go through all your systems of record and all your books and everything else, and they're going to surface assumptions that you're making about what's true and allow you to either verify or falsify those assumptions.' And they're going to use not human emotion or mimetic instinct, but they're just going to use algorithmic analysis, dispassionate. And so there are times when our humanity gets in our way. And I think that sometimes assuming things are going to be true that aren't so is one of those times. Whereas the AI has the ability to be potentially much more detached from needing to be right about that or needing to go with what the assumption is. So I like the idea of not predicting the future but avoiding undesirable futures by eliminating bad current assumptions. And then the probability distribution of future outcomes is better because you don't pursue paths that could lead to those bad places. If you stop making bad loans, then the impact of the Great Financial Crisis is a lot less extreme. And so then the range of available outcomes gets much better. So the way I like to have a better future is to avoid avoidable mistakes in the present and then lean into what's left. And so I think AI could be great for that. So people talk about systems of record. What I'm talking about here is a system of intelligence. And what it is is a falsification engine that tries to falsify present assumptions so that you can make better future decisions.
Yeah, that's cool. I don't know of a company doing that, or I would let you know.
H
Host1:00:39
Yeah, if you find any, let me know. That's what I'm on the hunt for.
M
Mike Jr.1:00:43
Do you, when you look at this moment, do you think about it as a bubble? Or how do you think about it? Because there's so much money going into it. In the episode I had with Jason Karp, it was something like well over $2 trillion of valuation among these AI application companies. And one of our mutual friends, Mitchell Green, who's one of my best friends and maybe the most successful self-made friend I have because I remember Mitchell when he had no money and now he's had a good run, a billion, and he believes that 90 to 95% of these AI applications are going to go out of business. And I'm curious if you think about when I'm hearing a pitch for an AI company, I'm thinking how close are they flying to the sun? And in this case, the sun is the frontier models, which actually have to be very, very ambitious given how valuable they are on paper and how much money is going into them. So they kind of have to grow that scope pretty dramatically in my opinion.
H
Host1:01:56
Yeah, it's interesting because both things can be true at the same time. So in the dot-com era, it was a bubble. NASDAQ 5000, right? And you could have even bought Amazon and you would have lost 95% of your money before you made 500 times your money. Now having said that, you still wouldn't have wanted to buy Amazon when you lost 95%. And so I think everything that people thought the internet would bring about happened, but you could still get crushed in the early innings of it. And so my only way out of that dilemma is to look at these companies one at a time. So I think in tech, great outcomes are such radical exceptional outcomes that what you're really looking for is that capitalist mutation.
M
Mike Jr.1:02:53
Mutation. You're looking to spot the goalpagus bird that's never been seen before.
H
Host1:03:00
And never will be seen that way quite the same way again.
M
Mike Jr.1:03:04
Right.
H
Host1:03:04
And so if you're looking for only the exceptional thing, I think that it's worth looking. But I think that the challenge right now is everything is so exciting that it's easy to get excited about things that lots of people are excited about. That's expensive.
M
Mike Jr.1:03:19
Well, it's a weird time because, as you know, there's the haves and have-nots right now. So there's the AI panache companies and then there's everybody else.
H
Host1:03:30
And so the AI panache companies, that's where a lot of the funding, the vast majority, I mean, it's probably like 90% or an insane amount. And most of that's going to the frontier models in terms of by dollar volume.
M
Mike Jr.1:03:43
Yeah. So, it's, you know, but I got to say that when people talk about the trillions of GPU buildout dollars, does that sound a lot like wiring up the country for fiber optic cables?
H
Host1:03:58
It rhymes.
M
Mike Jr.1:03:59
Yeah. But broadband was real.
H
Host1:04:02
And so, you know, Global Crossing went out of business, but broadband was real.
M
Mike Jr.1:04:07
Yeah. Well, I personally am really bullish on it. And that's why I think we are going to enter this age of abundance for all. And I put out there a probability, you know, I mean, I don't really know, but I put out that I'm 95% certain that we make it. And then you have people on all different ranges. So far on the podcast, I've had three people on who are 100% certain we're going to make it unless we get hit by some meteor from outer space. But most people aren't 95% like me. And then you have people that I haven't had on the podcast like Eliza who's, you know, 95% certain we're going to destroy ourselves and I think wrote a book to that end just recently. He gave a TED talk last year on that. So where do you net out on that? Do you think we're going to make it to this age of abundance for all?
H
Host1:05:01
You know, I guess I'm leaning optimistic, but I don't know, right? Like I don't predict futures. And so, what I try to do is be really clear about what's hidden in plain sight about the present. And so, I don't know. I can see a set of scenarios where we do, and I can see a set of scenarios where we don't. If you look at time as an infinite horizon, then we need to be multiplanetary because there's never a point in the future where you can say infinity just happened. We didn't destroy ourselves, right? So the probability that we'll kill ourselves on Earth is 100% given enough time to transpire. But you could say that means we shouldn't be part of abundance. Abundance is not having us be a single point of failure, and you know, being multiplanetary. Because the thing about infinity is you can never say you've reached it, right? No matter how big it is, it's infinitesimal compared to infinity. But do I think that we've got a huge amount of running room ahead? Yeah. I mean, it's pretty impressive, different than any time I can remember in my lifetime.
M
Mike Jr.1:06:16
Can I ask you to just play futurist though for a moment? Because I played it with this book, you know. I want to give you a copy of The Lattice. And I played it trying to envision the years 2030 through 2085. And you know, one of the things I always say to friends is I say if you could take all of your stuff, your family, everything you care about, which really should be the family more than any stuff, and go back 50 years, 100 years, 200 years, you know, I'm a huge fan of Stephen Pinker's book, Enlightenment Now. There's no other period you would go. We're living in the best time. But the more fun exercise is to say what will humanity be like 100 years from now? What would it be like in the year 2125? What do you think? Do you think we'd even recognize each other in terms if we could travel there, you and I hop in the time machine?
H
Host1:07:16
I think our minds would be completely blown. First of all, we would have had to make it to that time, which I think we will. But I mean, we are in the exponential of exponentials. To me, a week of tech progress right now feels like a year 10 years ago. So what is it going to feel like 10 years from now? Is it going to be like an hour or two is going to feel like a week today, which feels like a year 10 years ago? You project out a hundred years.
M
Mike Jr.1:07:44
So here's the way I've internalized it. And I will admit that I'm a little bit of a fanboy of David Deutsch. So David Deutsch wrote this book called The Beginning of Infinity, which is probably one of the best books I've read in the last 20 years.
H
Host1:08:00
I need to read it.
M
Mike Jr.1:08:01
It's really good.
H
Host1:08:02
I have heard a lot of his speeches.
M
Mike Jr.1:08:04
Yeah. And I'm a fan. So David Deutsch is this guy in Oxford and he's famous for a lot of things, you know, quantum computing and then this book and then this thing that he calls constructor theory. But the thing that he basically says in The Beginning of Infinity is that we're at the beginning of infinity of our knowledge and that all knowable things can be known by us. And that the only problems that can't be solved are those limited by physics. So far we have not found a way to travel in a spaceship faster than the speed of light. We can zap a photon at that speed, but we can't ourselves travel that fast. But there are other things that are not outlawed by physics. And so his basic view is that any of those problems are solvable by us. And so when I think about predicting the future, I think part of what's so hard to predict about it is we don't yet know what those future breakthroughs will be. By definition, breakthroughs are undiscovered, right? And so the way I like to look at it is all of it will happen. The question is just when and by who, but all of it will happen. All of it that's possible to happen will happen. And that's part of what's so inspiring about his book is that, however much we know, there's an infinity ahead of us to know and we're just at the beginning. And that any problem solvable within the realm of physics, we can solve. And so then you come back to AI and you say if thinking itself is going to become free, the solution space of what we can solve goes up exponentially, orders of magnitude. And so there are going to be things that take longer to solve than we expect. But for example, is it possible to solve every genetic disease? Within the realm of physics it is, because genes have a DNA expression with chemicals and proteins and that can be solved. And so I think that we're going to head into a world where the frontier of the solvable will increase exponentially, and then that will make what's possible increase exponentially. And it'll surprise. There'll be some things that take longer than we wish, maybe solving brain health or depression or things like that. There'll be other things we'll be amazed at how fast we figure it out. We'll say, 'How did that ever happen so quick?'
Yeah. One of the things that I think we will figure out is how to create nearly unlimited energy. Like I think we're just a couple of clicks away. Just like AlphaFold decoded the protein folding problem, we're going to use that to decode material science. And if we could just capture 18 seconds of the sun's energy that falls on Earth, that would power all of our energy needs for over a year. 18 seconds. And it's just right there staring at us in the sky every day.
H
Host1:11:12
Yeah. And plus, you got the atom itself, right? And so yeah, I mean there's a world where we get out of our own way and we make nuclear power too cheap to meter. And there's a lot of correlation between energy output and progress in general, and so that feels like a pretty important part of it. But personalized medicine and curing a bunch of diseases seems like a big part of it. Making it easier to move atoms from point A to point B than we've made it seems like part of it. But all of those things, we're just a couple of degrees of freedom away from having a big breakthrough, I think.
M
Mike Jr.1:11:58
Yeah. I love what Pablo Hullman says. I don't know if you know him.
H
Host1:12:02
I don't know him. I read his book after you told me about it.
M
Mike Jr.1:12:05
Oh, good. Okay. So, you did read it.
H
Host1:12:07
Yeah, I did. Cover to cover.
M
Mike Jr.1:12:09
Amazing book. Yeah. He is an amazing guy. He's going to be on this podcast. And Josh Bear is spending a lot of time in deep tech. He talked about that on episode five. And it's interesting that Austin is having some real deep tech companies breakout now. Whether it's Icon or Atronic. So that's exciting.
H
Host1:12:32
Yeah. And some of the ideas that I would like to see more people get acquainted with. So the first, we sort of talked about it briefly, this idea of constructor theory. So constructor theory basically says that one way to think about physics is like Newtonian mechanics and motion, trying to predict the path of an object or where it ends up. What constructor theory says is that another way to look at physics is it allows you to transform matter from one state to another state. And so some transformations are impossible or at least not conceivable by what we know. A spaceship that goes faster than the speed of light, perpetual motion machine, things like that. There are other things that we just talk about that are in the realm of possible. We just don't know how to do it. Gene editing much more than we can now, right? And then there's some things we just know how to do. And so when I wrote Pattern Breakers, what I was really doing is describing inflections, and those are kind of breakthroughs at the realm of the adjacent possible. But what I like about constructor theory is it basically says there is a way to understand what problems are solvable. And what you try to do is you try to create a constructor that converts matter from one state to your desired state. But that any problem that can be expressed that way with a possible transformation can be solved. And so I like that way of thinking about things a lot because that theory of how the world works can be applied not just to physics but economics, startups, a bunch of things. The other thing I like is the ideas of Karl Popper. So Karl Popper used to say science is never settled. You can never say Newtonian mechanics is right. You can never say Einstein is right. All you can say is it's the best explanation we have now. And so why is that important? A theory is not a statement about absolute truth with a capital T. It's a better explanation than any other that we've ever had before. It explains reality better. Right. And what Popper would say is therefore rather than say I have the capital T truth, express an explanation in a way that it can be falsified. And so if your idea can't be falsified, it's not a real idea. And so that idea of falsification combined with Deutsch's constructor theory I think is a really interesting way of thinking about abundance because it defines the solution space of where abundance can happen and it also defines the ways of framing reality as better explanations for how that abundance can come about.
M
Mike Jr.1:15:26
Right. Right. Yeah. I love that. But I want to talk about spirituality. And specifically this book you recommended to me, Jonathan Livingston Seagull, which I read a long time ago to our youngest. And it didn't hit me at that moment as a spiritual read. Because I wasn't yet there and now I'm there and it hits me very differently. It's a really beautiful book. And speaking of a spiritual experience I had, your dad's funeral was a very spiritual experience for me. I teared up a lot there. I really felt like I could feel his presence there. And he was a real mensch. He definitely did everything he could to help me too. And that was just the way he was with a lot of people. And I'm just curious from a spiritual perspective, what do you think is the nature of this reality that we're in? I mean, David Deutsch has lots of theories. He definitely spends a lot of time talking about the Everett many worlds theory, which is all about quantum branching and all the infinite levels of probability. But what is your theory of this reality?
H
Host1:16:48
Yeah. So lately I've been spending a lot of time thinking about Christianity. And I don't mean Christianity as opposed to Judaism or anything else for that matter. I tried to think about what aspects of it do I fundamentally believe in other than just believing the dogma. Right? And I think it's an important question because you can look at Jesus through two lenses: as a religious figure or as a philosopher king. And I think that the western world underappreciates the contributions he had to our philosophical grounding. So for example, Jesus was the person that caused humanity to assume as a given that people had fundamental human rights and that everybody had rights. That wasn't true in pagan religions before when you had sacrifice and things like that. Jesus believed in unconditional love. He believed in a forward arc of progress, not just cyclical the world just repeats itself. He believed in the value for its own sake of common work. And the whole term the Judeo-Christian work ethic came from. So it's interesting. You almost can't think about the western world without thinking about his contributions to our thinking. The western world is undefined without it. And part of what's missing today is people, because they have lost their connection to that, they don't appreciate the importance of those ideas and where they came from. Right? So that's the first thought. And by the way, everything I've said so far, you don't have to believe in God to say it's important. You don't have to believe it in a literal sense. In fact, you could say whether you believe it in a literal sense or not, you're better off acting as if you do because the philosophical underpinnings would cause you to do the same set of things. Where do I think God comes in? One way to think about infinity is it's something that can't be reached because you can never say you got there. You could be one to the billion zeros more abundant than we are now and you're still infinitesimal compared to infinity. Right? So, one way I like to think of infinity is just because we can't reach it doesn't mean we shouldn't try to always get better. Right? And so, to me, godliness is the continued pursuit of always going down the path to infinity, always knowing that there's more knowable things, always knowing that we can be better and that we should try. That's the way we honor the gift of our time, right? And so, to me, God is like the limit of it, does reach infinity. And then the question is just do you believe that that limit exists somewhere that we don't know about or not. If you believe that it exists then anything that's infinite magnitude like that would have to be all-seeing, all-knowing, because infinity is everything. It's like every single scenario. People have a hard time grasping the idea of infinity. But when you really think about it, it's like every possible outcome happens all at the same time because there is no single thing that you can describe that's not included in it. Right? And so if you go down that road of thinking, then you start to say there probably is a god. The other thing that I think is interesting, and I haven't quite gotten there yet, but I've been rereading René Girard's books. And so René Girard started as kind of an agnostic and thought that Christianity was important philosophically, but he wasn't like religious with a capital R. But he came to believe in his later years, he came to believe all of it over time. And his reasoning was that once you realize the depth of what it all means, you can't not believe. So, I don't know. I'm not sure, but I can't rule it out. And part of the problem that we have in the West today is you're not allowed to ask those kind of questions. You ask those kind of questions, people think you're some religious crazy person. And to me it's more of a question of what are the real limits and what do we say doesn't have to exist as a limit.
M
Mike Jr.1:21:51
I think that's changing. I thank goodness I think it's changing. I was walking in a Starbucks in Austin just recently and several people that work for Josh Bear said, 'Hey Brett, it's good to see you.' I'm like, 'What are you guys doing?' The four of them are sitting around. They're all doing Bible study. And you actually see a decline in the youngest generation using social media. And we do have a loneliness and depression epidemic in the time that we're supposedly all very connected. And there has been a fall of the church. A lot of churches have been turned into hotels. But I think that there is a spiritual resurgence going on. And I actually think it coincides with AI because the nature of what makes us most human has never been actually more important than now. It's getting people to really think about like, wait, is there anything special about us all? Let me read something from Jonathan Livingston Seagull. And it relates to what you're saying about Jesus. And one of the things you should know is that although I'm Jewish, I've studied the Tao Te Ching, I've studied the Bhagavad Gita, I've studied Kabbalah and the Torah, I've studied the Bible, and I can tell you that they all intersect in this way that it describes here. So, I just love this line. This is in the book: 'How could you love a mob of birds that just tried to kill you? You don't love hatred and evil. You have to practice and see the real goal. The goal isn't seagull, the good in every one of them and to help them see it in themselves. It's fun when you get the knack of it.' And the thing I love about that is that it's about the mantra of Christianity: the kingdom of God is found within. As Jews, our mantra, using that colloquially, is tikkun olam, like let's create a better world, let's repair the world. And from the Tao to the Gita, it's all about the discovery of the self and the discovery of the soul. And that's something that I think everybody could relate to and grab on to. And if you have the ability both individually to allow love to conquer your own fear and then you radiate that love and you radiate a life of service, which you do. I've seen you do it with entrepreneurs and I've seen you tear up many times on stage when you start talking about entrepreneurs because you feel the struggle and you feel the victory when they cross. You feel the journey, right? And that is the root that's in common of all religions. That is God in my opinion.
H
Host1:25:04
Yeah. So, a couple of thoughts on that. One is that, and this is a little bit of a René Girardian thought. So Girard believed that humans have a natural tendency to imitate each other. And so he called it this theory of mimetic behavior. And so humans don't always want the thing they want just on their own for its own sake. You and I might both want a certain kind of car because we think that both of us wants that kind of a car. And so, humans tend to desire the thing that others desire. And that works in some degree because when you're a baby, you get positive reinforcement when you imitate your mom, when she makes a face at you or things like that. But what it causes is this thing called mimetic rivalry. And it causes societies to get into these mimetic contagions or you have wars and people fighting over things. So one way that René Girard looked at God was we need to stop looking at each other and look up. And so the idea is that it relates to what you're saying from Jonathan Livingston Seagull. If you realize the sanctity of everybody and you're able to practice unconditional love for all things, you don't worry anymore about comparing yourself to others. You live the best life you can as an expression of your gratitude for the time you get. But your gratitude points upward to the fact that you get to exist at all. And you worry less about, hey, how does my journey compare to that other person's journey? And you think more about just how do you honor the gift of your time. And so that was the thing that I really admired about my dad. He didn't want to be the best because he wanted to be better than everybody else. My dad wanted to be the best because that was an expression of his gratitude for the time he had. He's like, 'Hey, every day is a gift, and the way to honor the gift of your time is to actualize your talents in a way that makes the world better to the very best of your ability. Your ability and yours alone.' So for him, doing your best wasn't about beating the other guy. He got into the spirit of competition, but for him doing your best was about expressing gratitude. And none of us knows how much time we have, but the fact that you have any time at all is amazing. And every day is an opportunity to honor the gift of that time or to just let life drift on by and you just forget, one day to the next, just one after the other, just blends in a blur. And so that was the other thing I got from Jonathan Livingston Seagull: the gift of your time really is profound and we all have choices about how we want to treat that gift. And we all have choices about what it means to us and what meaning we make from it.
M
Mike Jr.1:28:11
I loved it and I just had a totally different lens on it reading it at this age and with as much study of ancient spirituality that I've done at this point. But one of the things that I'll say about entrepreneurship is in my opinion the most rewarding thing outside of the journey is actually the impact of when you see it transform lives. And the fact that there have now been over 70 companies started by former Bazaarvoice people is amazing. But the other thing is it's an inner journey. There are things as an entrepreneur that you don't know that you're capable of. And once you find out through tackling your own fears that you're capable of those things, you're able to also convince others that they're capable of those things and help them manifest that in themselves. And so that inner journey very much intersects with spirituality because the only way you become really lasting happy is if you have an inner journey. It's never about the world of form and the comparison machine because the comparison machine never ends. I remember during the financial downturn 2008, 2009, there's a German guy who was worth three billion and his net worth went down to two billion. He ran out and killed himself, threw himself in front of a train. That's someone who is only about comparing at the party to the other billionaires there and he can't face them and say he lost a billion dollars.
H
Host1:29:47
Yeah. And that's the part of us that if I have a worry about us, the part of us that I worry about that we're not highly evolved enough on is this reflexive desire to compare ourselves to other people. So if I take that question you asked earlier, are we going to make it or not? Whether we make it, I think is a function of evolving past that. That to me is a single point of failure in our operating system as people. And if we can transcend that, then I think we're going to be in pretty good shape. But if we can't transcend that, there will always be another mimetic contagion around the corner. And I agree with you, the comparison game never ends. If you've got to have more than the next guy, there's always an ex guy who has more. There's always somebody who's got something more than you've got, and you'll just never be happy. Whereas, if you say every day is a gift, all you can be is your best, then every day you're happy no matter what. As long as you live true, as long as you kept that bargain with yourself. And so I hope that we could get past some of the mimetic contagion issues, but to me that's kind of one of the hinge factors for us.
M
Mike Jr.1:31:09
Well, I agree. But I think that the way to get past that is to explore spirituality because if you stay locked... I mean this is the whole point of Gary Zukav's book, The Seat of the Soul, which Oprah Winfrey says was the most transformational book she ever read in her whole life. She wrote the 25th anniversary preface to it. And his whole point was if we remain five sensory humans thinking that there's nothing but the world of form, then that takes you pretty quickly to a place of 'I'm going to get all I can get' and 'you only live once', the YOLO, versus a perspective of 'my goal here on earth is to radiate as much love and impact and connection with other people and to ultimately allow ourselves to bring out the best in each other.' And that's why I think this period of time is so important. That's why I'm doing this with Love Conquers Fear. I'm trying to put some light out there to help us make it.
H
Host1:32:18
Yeah. And I guess the way I might internalize it, I think I agree, is that one way to think of spirituality is it transcends comparing yourself to others and you realize that there's something else that's more worthy of your attention and time and more worthy of what you care about in this world, what your definition of success is even. And the more you can avoid comparing yourselves to others and the more you can lean into comparing yourself to the best standard you can possibly conceive of, the closer you get to that, it rounds off to you end up becoming spiritual. Because you say that you're pursuing a higher purpose that can only be considered through the lens of approaching spirituality.
M
Mike Jr.1:33:16
Well, spoiler alert, but I can spoil it because it's my own book. What we find out by the year 2085 is that God's infinite game is that whatever the species is that reaches our level of intelligence and beyond, they have to learn how to allow love to conquer fear to make it. And that pattern repeats over and over again throughout history. So that is the point. But by 2085 they still don't understand the true nature of God because it is so far beyond our comprehension. That's one of the aspects of Judaism that I really love is that we're very humble in the sense that we can't grapple with something that infinite. As far as we know the universe has no boundary. If it does have a boundary it'd be very interesting to know.
H
Host1:34:10
Yeah. And it's like infinity, right? You can't ever get there, but it gives you a lot of running room.
M
Mike Jr.1:34:17
Exactly. Right. And so it's kind of like, the fact that as far as I know, we're all going to die, but the fact that you get to live it all is really amazing.
H
Host1:34:28
And so make it count, right? Make it count. And so, that's kind of how I look at it. They're kind of related thoughts, I suppose.
M
Mike Jr.1:34:35
Yeah. Well, I really appreciate you, brother. And I just appreciate the love you put out there. One of the things that truly makes you unique in this field is that you really have a very high level of empathy and connection with entrepreneurs. Part of it was that you have been one yourself, so you know how freaking hard it is. And I just love your heart and I'm really happy that you decided to come on the podcast and I'm looking forward to tonight.
H
Host1:35:09
Yeah. Me too. Looking forward to seeing your much better half who has believed in me since I was years old. But yeah, thank you so much.
M
Mike Jr.1:35:19
All right. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it. So, thanks everybody for tuning in to another episode of Love Conquers Fear. Staying on the road attending TED AI for the next couple of days. And then the next guest you'll see is an investor whose fund is focused only on AI investments. That's going to be really exciting because he has a thesis around what's durable and not durable in this environment and that's where he's spending all of his time. So until next time, thanks again for tuning in. I have a crazy good lineup of investors, entrepreneurs, spiritual teachers, philosophers, and scientists coming up. Literally fully booked for the rest of the year. And I can't wait to share all that with you. Thanks again.