William Mcdermott2:29:50
AI laid the foundation with each task consuming 1 to 10 assists. Agentic AI deepens the value curve by completing multi-step tasks consuming significantly more tokens. Autonomous AI specialists represent the next step change, purpose-built to perform specific job functions end to end. With the two layers combined, consuming over 15x the assists of generative AI. As AI solves more complex workflows, usage rates climb and so does the value we capture. This is just the beginning. Our autonomous workers will cover all corners of the enterprise as the platform scales.
DocuSign is a customer exemplifying this journey from Gen AI to their first agentic use case and now the zero-touch service desk, their first step towards autonomous workforce. Using ServiceNow, DocuSign has a target of autonomously handling 90% of all IT tickets so human agents can focus on the most critical work. They expect to save millions and the opportunity is massive. DocuSign is realizing their vision of true workflow transformation and creating a playbook that they can replicate across their entire business.
This is just one great customer example. You've already heard directly from FedEx and Hitachi earlier about their incredible AI journeys with ServiceNow. What does it mean for ServiceNow at a larger scale? Let's look at IT incident management. Just one use case within ITSM, we see over 100 million incidents per month on the ServiceNow platform today.
If 75% of those incidents can be processed by an autonomous workforce, this translates into a $3.5 billion ACV opportunity net of any seat licenses that go away. Multiply that across other ITSM use cases and then across the entirety of our platform, we power 100 billion workflows and 7 trillion transactions annually. And you can see the incredible opportunity in front of us.
How long does it take a customer to realize autonomous outcomes at scale? With all new technologies in the enterprise, it takes time. But as you heard from Paul and others, we're finding every possible way to help our customers accelerate that journey. Let's look at an example.
When a customer purchases Agent capabilities, they receive a generous assist allocation, meaning assist overage tends to be relatively more limited in the first couple of years. What starts as a strategic deployment across ITSM, CSM, HRSD becomes a foundation for enterprise-wide AI transformation. By year three, they're taking on more complex agentic use cases, inflecting consumption.
Year-over-year AI ACV compounds driven by the deepening adoption across the enterprise as the customer naturally graduates up the value chain to autonomous workflows. The result is a fundamentally different revenue model with fewer seats but far greater value. We anticipate by year five, this AI customer would be spending 4.5x the initial assist entitlement.
These journeys have already begun. As Bill teased at earnings, we're raising our 2026 AI ACV target from 1 billion to 1.5 billion. The demand we're seeing is real. These are not features bolted on to existing products. They are built-in solutions with strong adoption and measurable outcomes already.
When AI attaches to existing workflows, it doesn't just add revenue today. It makes the platform stickier and expands the ACV opportunity for each and every customer. This is a flywheel that's already spinning, not one just being built. And looking further out, by 2030, we expect 30% of our ACV from ServiceNow AI.
When the unit economics work, when trust builds, when complexity scales, this is what happens. And I really just love that map. Okay, that should give you a sense of our growth story and trajectory. Now, let's turn to profitability.
AI is structurally expanding ServiceNow's margins. I'm going to repeat that. AI is structurally expanding ServiceNow's margins. I'm often asked whether AI inference costs will compress our gross margins. That framing doesn't apply to us. AI reasoning is less than 10% of our cost to serve. If inference costs rise, the margin impact remains modest. Customers aren't paying us for tokens. They're paying for a resolved outcome. Reasoning is one input. Workflow orchestration, governance, context, cross-system action. That's where the other 90% of the value and cost sit. We're differentiated and our pricing reflects the full platform, the CMDB, the workflow engine, the governance layer, the business service map, 20 plus years of operational context.
That competitive positioning is what sets us apart from the standalone AI providers and why our gross margin profile holds. This allows ServiceNow AI to continue to ramp with subscription gross margins remaining above 80%. While our move to hyperscalers is impacting gross margins in the short term, the ROI on that strategy has paid off as net new ACV from public cloud partners nearly tripled year-over-year.
We're also not just selling AI solutions. We're using them ourselves. AI is driving meaningful year-over-year gains in output from our fully ramped reps. We're growing the top line while getting more efficient with every sales dollar invested.
We're also seeing an acceleration in the incremental savings from Agentic AI flattening the hiring curve. The $200 million in savings in 2026, that's on top of $100 million that we saw in 2025 for a total of $300 million in expected annualized cost savings from Agentic AI flowing to the bottom line in 2026. AI agents are doing 90% of the monotonous work. ServiceNow's own support and service operations have been rebuilt on our Agentic AI. This margin expansion is structural, not cyclical.
We are the proof of concept. Every customer is being shown what ServiceNow has already built at enterprise scale. All of this allows us to return to normalized margin expansion in 2027. We expect 100 basis points of non-GAAP operating margin expansion and 100 basis points of free cash flow margin expansion in 2027, inclusive of Armis.
We can commit to this because operational discipline is a core muscle and now AI is compounding that discipline with $300 million of hard savings flowing directly to the bottom line. The message is simple. We are not trading TAM expansion for margin expansion. The model enables both and you'll see that in our numbers in 2027 and beyond.
Turning to our long-term targets. I know you're all waiting for this all day. We keep you here for this part, right? Okay. Phil gave you a little preview, but I've got a little surprise. So, hold please. In 2021, we established a long-term target to achieve $15 billion in subscription revenue in 2026. Many were skeptical then. I see a few of you in the room. Fast forward to today, we're on track to beat that target by half a billion dollars organically. I know the guide is higher than $15.5 billion. Organically, we're beating that by half a billion dollars.
Not many executive teams can say that about their long-term targets. I know you all know that, too. Our momentum puts us on pace to double that target in 2030. That's $30 billion plus in subscription revenue and it's not a blue sky scenario. It's what a durable platform growth story delivers. As you heard from Amit though, we haven't been standing still. We've accelerated organic innovation to catch the tailwinds from emerging opportunities made possible by AI. We've expanded the TAM with recent acquisitions. And while we're not asking you to underwrite this upside today, we see a strong path to it.
A higher 20% CAGR from our current 2026 guidance and $32 billion of subscription revenue in 2030. Pretty impressed that I got to say that number, right? And he didn't take it. But this is not blue sky. There's a roadmap of real defensible growth engines and they are not heroic assumptions.
Security supercharged by our demand for AI Control Tower and the new TAM unlocked by our acquisitions of Armis and Viz. Data becomes even more critical as enterprises deepen their AI investments. You heard that from customers today. AI has upended the CRM market and we are taking share together. These three vectors compound at over 25% growth year-over-year through 2030.
Most importantly, cutting across all of it is AI, agentic workflows, autonomous workers, unlocking value in ways that simply did not exist two years ago. And I would note this does prudently bake in a deceleration in some of our more mature products. In this environment, it's a show-me story. I get that. We get that. That's why we're ensuring your topline growth option with a commitment to continued strong profitability.
Combining topline growth and profitability at a level few companies achieve at any size, let alone ours, puts us on a trajectory of achieving the goal of 60 plus by 2030. This is what we're building. A business that delivers accelerating value for customers and shareholders simultaneously, year after year.
That means focusing on GAAP profitability as well. Two years ago, we committed to getting stock-based comp below 15% of revenue by 2026. We did it in 2025. We also told you that sub 10% is the longer-term destination. Today, we're telling you when: 2029. It's the same playbook, revenue scale, discipline, equity practices, a comp philosophy that allows us to attract the best talent, but doesn't overindex on stock.
Let me put a finer point on how we're returning capital to shareholders. We doubled our share repurchases in 2025. In Q1 alone, the $2 billion ASR represented nearly double the shares we repurchased in 2025 all in one quarter. The result: we expect to be dilution net neutral for 2026. We still have $4.2 billion in authorization remaining. So we have plenty of capacity to keep managing dilution going forward.
We're always evaluating the best use of capital to maximize shareholder value. Our framework is clear. First, we reinvest in organic growth at high incremental returns. Products like AI Control Tower, Now Assist, Workflow Data Fabric. So strategic internal investments deliver. Second, we deploy capital into acquisitions of technology and talent with a focus on tuck-ins that open new TAMs or meaningfully accelerate our product roadmap. Third, we are committed to returning capital to shareholders balanced against the significant growth opportunities we see ahead. We will continue to be thoughtful about that trade-off. With the sizable free cash flow generation that will come with our significant margin expansion, we'll also have tremendous flexibility as we think about capital allocation in the future.
So let's end where we started. I know there's questions swirling in the software industry and it's easier for some people to put us in a box with others. The fact is we are in a category of one. ServiceNow is the orchestration and governance platform that AI requires more of, not less. The AI super cycle is a revenue tailwind for ServiceNow. We showed you the math today. It works. The margin expansion is structural and we are living proof. Our own AI transformation is the strongest customer reference we have. We bring growth and profitability. Two engines of shareholder value, both powered by AI. That's how you get to the rule of 60 plus at more than $30 billion in revenue. Thank you all for joining us today. And now we're going to welcome back Bill, Amit, and Paul.